AcetraderFx May 6: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

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AceTraderFx Sept 26: Intra-Day News & Views EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

26 Sep 2014

EUR/USD - 1.2746...... Euro finally gains respite in Asia after suffering from recent losing streak. Despite yesterday's climatic sell off in European morning after penetrating key daily sup at 1.2745 (2013 bottom in Apr) to a near 22-month trough of 1.2696 (1.26955 on EBS), minor short-covering lifted the pair to 1.2736 and price came under renewed selling on Dallas Fed Richard Fisher comments on Reuters that the Fed may start raising rates around the spring of 2015, at the earlier end of market expectations, bids above 1.2700 contained pullback and euro later climbed to 1.3765 in NY as weaker-than-expected U.S. data prompted further short-covering in euro.

Although euro has edged lower in Asia from 1.2761 on intra-day renewed dlr's strength caused by strong bounce in dlr/yen, range trading is expected to continue n traders would look to cover their shorts ahead of the weekend. Initial bids are noted at 1.3730-25 and more at 1.3700 with stops reported below 1.2695, however, good buying interest is touted near 1.2690/80.

On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.2760/65 and more at 1.2775/80 with stops (fairly large) building abv 1.3800/10 area.

 

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AceTraderFx Sept 29: Intra-Day News & Views(EUR/USD) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

29 Sep 2014 02:09GMT

EUR/USD - ..... Euro briefly fell marginally below Fri's NY low of 1.2677 to a fresh 22-month at 1.2667/68 in NZ as short-term specs bot the greenback broadly shortly after Mon open following Fri's renewed weakness in NY session after upbeat revised U.S. GDP data, however, lack of follow-through selling lifted the pair to 1.2688 in Asia.

Looks like range trading is in store until European open as traders await release of EZ confidence index n German inflation data at 09:00GMT.
With Fri's release of CFTC report which showed net long usd positions hitting at 15-month high, selling euro on intra-day recovery is the way to go as recent losing streak is expected to continue.
Offers are tipped at 1.2690/00 n more abv with some stops touted abv 1.2730. On the downside, some bids are noted at 1.2670-60 with some stops below there.

Last week, ECB Governing Council member Luc Coene told a conference on Fri in Brussels the central bank be prepared to enact more stimulus measures if necessary to increase liquidity in the euro area.
Coene held out the possibility that the targeted-loan program that the ECB announced in Jun wouldn't be adequate to spur lending n stimulate the economy of the 18-nation euro area. He said "if we estimate that it? insufficient, inevitably we will add other instruments at our disposal to increase the balance sheet of the central bank, if it's necessary."
Coene added he considered Sep's demand to be at predicted levels, n he expected it to be greater at the next operation in Dec. "The fact that they didn't take a lot seemed to us more or less foreseeable in the month of Sep," "I think there will be more pronounced demand for the December offering."


Next week will see the release of U.K. mortgage approvals, eurozone business climate, consumer confidence, economic and industrial sentiment, Germany's CPI and HICP, U.S. PCE price index, core PCE price index, personal income and consumption, pending home index and pending sales change on Monday;

Gfk consumer confidence, Japan's unemployment rate, all household spending, industrial prelim. output, IP forecast and retail sales, China's final HSBC manufacturing PMI, Japan's construction orders and housing starts, Germany's retail sales, U.K. national house price, Swiss KOF indicator, Germany's unemployment rate, Canada's GDP and producer prices, U.S. Redbook, CaseShiller 20 MM house prices, Chicago PMI, consumer confidence on Tuesday;

Japan's Tankan, China's NBS manufacturing PMI, Australia's retail sales, Japan's manufacturing PMI, Swiss PMI, German and eurozone Markit manufacturing PMI, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, ADP National employment, Canada's RBC manufacturing PMI, U.S. final Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI on Wednesday;

Australia's HIA new home sales, building approvals and trade balance, U.K. Markit construction PMI, eurozone producer prices, ECB rate decision, U.S. jobless claims, ISM New York index, revised durable goods and factory orders on Thursday;

China's NBS non-manufacturing PMI, German and eurozone Markit final services PMI, eurozone retail sales, Canada's imports, exports and trade balance, U.S. average earnings, government payrolls, unemployment rate, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing new orders and PMI on Friday.

 

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AceTraderFx Sept 30: Intra-Day News & Views(EUR/USD) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

30 Sep 2014 01:46GMT

EUR/USD - ...... Euro trades narrowly with a downside bias on the last trading day of the month (also end of Q3) in Asia after staging a short-covering rebound from Monday's fresh 22-month low of 1.2664 to 1.2715 shortly after NY open.
However, renewed selling quickly emerged and pushed price lower to 1.2678 but another round of buying returned and lifted euro to 1.2712 ahead of European close but euro later drifted lower in NY afternoon after failure to absorb offers at 1.2710/15.

The single currency touched an intra-day low of 1.2681 in Asia and range trading with a soft bias is seen ahead of release of a slew of euro area eco. data later starting with Germany's retail sales at 06:00GMT, then German unemployment at 07:55GMT followed by Italy's unemployment at 08:00GMT. At 09:00GMT, EZ will release the key inflation & unemployment data, Italy will release CPI & PPI data.

Offers are reported at 1.2705/15 with stops above 1.2730. Initial bids are noted at 1.2880-70 with a mixture of buying interest n stops touted at 1.2665-60.

Data to be released on Tuesday:

Japan unemployment, household spending, industrial output, retail sales, New Zealand RBNZ business outlook, China manufacturing PMI, Germany retail sales, unemployment, UK consumer confidence, house prices, GDP, France producer prices, Swiss KOF indicator, Italy unemployment, CPI, EU inflation, Canada GDP, producer prices, U.S. redbook retail sales, caseshiller house prices, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence.

 

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AceTraderFx Oct 10: Intra-Day News and Views(EUR/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

10 Oct 2014 04:55GMT

EUR/USD - ..... Whilst ECB President Draghi continues to call for more stimulus to boost recovery in the EZ, ECB Governing Council member, Reuters reported Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said Germany will keep warning about the dangers of short-term fiscal stimulus at talks on the global economy in Washington although risks to growth are on the downside.

Weidmann said he expected growth in Germany, Europe's biggest economy, to come in below levels expected earlier this year, but maintained its fundamentals were sound.

Pressure is mounting for Germany to use its healthy budget to boost public spending n spur growth in Europe n Weidmann said he expected discussion of stimulus on Friday, when G20 officials meet on the sidelines of World Bank n IMF meetings.

He told reporters "(The) position is clear, in order to create sustainable growth there's little use in setting off an economic flash fire, particularly against a backdrop of historically high debt." Sound budget policy was an important condition for creating an environment favorable to investment n jobs, he said.

Growth in the euro area as a whole would be restrained going forward n downside risks prevailed at a global level, especially fm geopolitical factors, Weidmann added.

 

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AceTraderFx Oct 13: Intra-Day News and Views(EUR/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

13 Oct 2014

EUR/USD - ...... Euro jumps in early Asian trading on usd's broad-based weakness despite 'bearish' comments from ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny who said the euro is very likely to keep weakening against other major currencies.

Source from WSJ where in an interview on the sidelines of IMF meetings, Nowotny was quoted as saying "due to the different tendencies in interest rate policies there is a great likelihood that this leads to a further depreciation of the euro."

Traders reported fairly active buying of euro in NZ/Australian morning, price rose to 1.2648 and renewed buying emerged at Asian open, tripping stops above 1.2650, euro climbed to intra-day high of 1.2678/79.
Looks like Fri's low at 1.2605 (NY) would continue to hold until European morning and with most financial markets in U.S. & Canada closed for a holiday, range trading is likely to take place after last week's wild swings.

Bids have been raised to 1.2650-40 and more below with stops reported below 1.2600. Offers are noted at 1.2690/00 and more above with stops reported above 1.2720.

 

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AceTraderFx Oct 15: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views(EUR/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

15 Oct 2014 07:51GMT

EUR/USD - ....... Although euro rebounded after extending decline from yesterday's high of 1.2769 to 1.2625 in Asia n price edged higher in European morning after data showed German inflation in-line with expectations, renewed selling interest at 1.2663 checked gain adn price retreated to 1.2639.

At present, offers are touted at 1.2670/80 and more above with stops emerging above 1.2700.
On the downside, bids are placed at 1.3610-00 with stops below 1.2600 and more near 1.2580.

Earlier mentioned triple whammy of bearish news which hit the euro on Tuesday, WSJ reported another piece of euro-negative news worth noting.
A stand off among the ECB, Germany n other EZ governments is holding back Europe's quest to revive its flagging economic recovery.
The tensions, brewing for months, have sharpened this month as eurozone economic data have deteriorated n threaten to prevent a coherent policy response as Europe's economy slides toward a 3rd recession in 6 years.

A growing number of policy makers n advisers say a coordinated push is now needed, comprising aggressive new ECB actions, higher investment spending by Germany n EU institutions, n bolder economic overhauls in France & Italy. Even such a coordinated push might not be enough to return the eurozone to faster growth. But in its absence, the risks of a near-term recession n longer-term decline are rising, many argue.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel's gov't on Tue rejected calls for it to boost spending n delay its goal of a balanced budget next year amid mounting evidence of a slowdown in Europe?s biggest economy. Officials in Berlin also said they see no need for the ECB to try out new n uncertain measures.

Some ECB officials fear quantitative easing would be less effective in the eurozone than in the U.S. or U.K., because of the currency bloc's fragmented financial system, its reliance on bank loans rather than capital markets, n the fact that eurozone sovereign bond yields are mostly low already. But the ECB may have little choice but to try if inflation expectations continue to dwindle n the risk of outright deflation increases.

 

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AceTraderFx Oct 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

22 Oct 2014 02:26GMT

EUR/USD - ...... Euro is nursing loss in Asia after yesterday's sell off from 1.2840 to as low as 1.2706 in Australia earlier today.

Despite extending Monday's gain to 1.2840 in early European trading, heavy offers at 1.2840 checked intra-day gain and short-term euro bulls unwound their longs.
Breaking Reuters news of ECB was mulling corporate bond purchase as soon as at its December's meeting for such action in early 2015 triggered broad-based selling in euro, price tanked to 1.2745 and despite a brief short-covering bounce to 1.2784, another wave of selling emerged and pressured price to 1.2716 in NY morning.
Euro edged lower to 1.2706 in Australia but talk of bids at 1.2725/00 lifted price in Asian morning.

Yesterday's sell off suggests daily downside bias remains and there has been talk of fairly large stops building below 1.2700 as last Wednesday's rally to 1.2888 after downbeat U.S. retail sales and subsequent sideways trading had lured euro buyers.
Offers are noted at 1.2740/50 and more above with some stops touted above 1.2780. Initial bids are noted at 1.2705-00 with stops below there.

Although euro is expected to remain under pressure on the ECB corporate bond buy plan in Europe, pay attention to release of U.S. inflation data (forecast for annual Sep core CPI is 1.7%).
If actual reading is below estimate, usd may fall broadly as this will dampen prospect of Fed tightening in 2015.

 

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AceTraderFx Oct 27: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views


27 Oct 2014 02:15GMT

Euro rises above Friday's 1.2696 top in Asia as release of Sunday's stress tests report by the ECB on 130 banks showed no nasty surprises. Despite initial knee-jerk movement in Aust. on Monday (NZ was closed for a holiday), euro climbed in Asian morning after meeting buying interest at 1.2673.

Although consolidation with mild upside bias is likely ahead of European open and buying euro on dips is recommended, investors shud pay attention to the release of the important Ifo reports in European morning.
Ifo Institute will release its report on German business climate at 09:00GMT and market is expecting October's reading to be 104.3, slightly worse than the previous reading at 104.7.

Bids are noted at 1.2680-70 and around 1.2660 with mixture of bids and stops emerging below 1.2650.
On the upside, offers are placed at 1.2700-10 and further out at 1.2720/25 with mixture of offers n stops located just above 1.2750.

Bloomberg reported on Sun 25 lenders among the 130 banks including Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA failed a stress test led by the ECB, which showed the biggest capital hole in the region's banking system in Italy.

The ECB identified a total gap of 25 billion euros as of the end of 2013, most of which has now been raised by banks. Among lenders still in need of funds, Italy's Monte Paschi (BMPS) n Banca Carige SpA (CRG) must find a combined 2.9 bln euros between them, the ECB said.

None of Europe's largest banks were found lacking. No French, German or Spanish institutions were required to find more capital.
Lenders found to be deficient now have as many as nine months to fill gaps identified by the ECB, which is aiming to close the door on half a decade of financial turmoil in the euro region.

The results, on first impression, are "very positive" n should benefit some bank stocks on Mon, JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note.

 

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AceTraderFx Oct 29: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

29 Oct 2014

EUR/USD - ...... Although the single currency rallied to 1.2765 in NY morning after disappointing U.S. durable goods orders, price retreated briefly to 1.2721 as U.S. Conference Board reported upbeat consumer confidence index (October's reading at 94.5 was the highest in 7 years), which was boosted by a more favorable assessment of the current job market and business conditions.
Later, euro recovered to 1.2753 and then moved sideways for rest of the NY session and well into Wednesday's Asian morning.

As all eyes are on the release of Fed's monetary policy announcement and the following Fed statement later today at 18:00GMT, range trading is envisaged in Asia n Europe.
France will release consumer confidence for Oct at 07:45GMT and economists expect the reading to be slightly better at 87 compares to 86 in previous month, however, it should have little impact on euro.

Offers are noted at 1.2750-60 and then 1.2780/85 with stops emerging above 1.2900, whilst bids are placed at 1.2710-00 and around 1.2680 with stops emerging further out below 1.2650.

Last night despite euro's early brief rise to 1.2764 after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. durable goods data, the single currency subsequently retreated on the robust U.S. consumer confidence. Offers was tipped at 1.2750-60 and more at 1.2780. On the downside, some bids was located at 1.2720-10 with stops building up below 1.2700.

 

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AceTraderFx Nov 5: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

05 Nov 2014 02:04GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2553.. Ahead of Thurday's ECB policy meeting, WSJ reported the ultra low inflation becoming entrenched in Europe is playing out in strikingly different ways across the euro zone's 18 economies, complicating attempts to combat it.

In crisis-hit countries such as Greece n Spain, the detrimental effects of falling prices, known as deflation, are showing up clearly in strained profits n lower wages as companies try to adjust. But in healthier economies such as Germany n Austria, where unemployment is low and incomes are up, the most obvious impact is a boost to consumers' purchasing power.

At 0.4% in annual terms, euro zone inflation is far below the ECB's target of close-to 2%. A survey of purchasing managers released this week showed manufacturers cutting prices for a 2nd-straight month. The European Commission on Tuesday forecast inflation in the euro zone will remain below-target until at least 2016.

The ECB meets Thursday n is expected by analysts to refrain from new stimulus, but to keep the door open to dramatic measures such as gov't bond purchases if needed. Officials have signaled that they prefer to wait for recent measures including interest-rate cuts, bank loans n private-debt purchases to take hold before weighing additional steps.


In Asian morning, the euro maintains a firm undertone following yesterday's rally in NY morning to 1.2577. Price traded was above European low at 1.2501 in NY n jumped on Reuters report euro area central bankers were planning to challenge ECB President Draghi's leadership style.

In its exclusive report, Reuters said the bankers are particularly angered that Draghi effectively set a target for increasing the ECB's balance sheet immediately after the policy-making governing council explicitly agreed not to make any figure public, the sources said.

Some members intend to raise their concerns with Draghi at the governors' traditional informal working dinner on Wednesday before their formal monthly rate-setting meeting on Thursday.
Despite the intra-day brief but sharp rise to 1.2577, euro later moved sideways on lack of follow-through buying n retreated to 1.2541.
Range trading was expected to continue in Asia with offers noted at 1.2575/80, stops were reported above there, however, more selling interest was noted at 1.2590/00.
On the downside, initial bids were reported at 1.2545-40 n more below with stops touted below 1.2500.

Pay attention to a slew of eco. data in European morning with Italy's Markit services PMI, then the same fm France, Germany & the euro zone.

Data to be released on Wednesday:

New Zealand's HLFS unemployment rate, job growth and labour cost index, China's HSBC services PMI, Swiss CPI, German Markit services PMI, U.K. Markit services PMI, eurozone retail sales, U.S. ADP National employment, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI and employment index.