AcetraderFx May 6: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

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AceTraderFx Dec 23: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Dec 2014 02:16GMT

EUR/USD - ....... The single currency met renewed selling interest at 1.2272 on Monday and fell to a fresh 27-month low at 1.2217 new New York close due to dollar's broad-based strength on renewed risk appetite following the rise in global stock markets.
Offers are now tipped at 1.2245-50 and more at 1.2265-70.
On the downside, some bids are located at 1.2220-15 with mixture of bids and stops seen at 1.2200.

Euro is expected to remain under pressure for the rest of this year on speculation the European Central Bank will add stimulus next year as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates.

In other news, S&P said on Monday that it still sees the first rate hike in June 2015, and says the Fed Funds rate can go as high as 1.25% by 2015 end. This corresponds with the Fed's own projection which had the range of Fed Funds between 1.000 and 1.25% (or 1.125% for the average of the low to high range).

Tuesday will see the release of New Zealand's Trade Balance, Exports and Imports, China's CB Leading Economic Index, France's GDP, Producer Prices, Italy's Retail Sales, U.K.'s BBA Mortgage Approvals, Current Account, GDP, U.S.'s GDP, Personal Consumption, Redbook, Housing Price Index, Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment, New Home Sales, Personal Income, Personal Spending.

 

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AceTraderFx Dec 29: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

29 Dec 2014 01:08GMT

EUR/USD - ....... Euro came under initial selling pressure ahead of Asian open as short-term specs sold the single currency on political woes in Greece following w/end comments by Greek PM Samaras and German FinMin Schaeuble.

Reuters reported Greek PM Antonis Samaras faces a vote in parliament later toay that will decide whether the country goes to snap elections that could bring the leftwing Syriza party to power n derail an international bailout. Voting is due to start at midday (10:00 GMT), with the result likely around an hour later.

Reuters also reported Samaras warned lawmakers on Saturday against the snap election that will be called if he loses a key presidential vote in parliament on Monday, but said he was confident of winning if Greeks did go to the polls.

Speaking before Monday's decisive round in the election of a successor to head of state Karolos Papoulias, Samaras said a general election, which must be held if a new president cannot be appointed, was against the national interest.

"The Greek people do not want early elections," he told state television in an interview. "I have done and I am doing everything to ensure a president is elected and snap elections are averted," Samaras said.

His comment came on the same day German FinMin Wolfgang Schaeuble warned that any Greek gov't would have to respect commitments already made by Athens.

More w/end news worth noting which also contributed to euro's initial weakness ahead of Asian open Monday. Reuters reported German FinMin Wolfgang Schaeuble expressed his reservations against the ECB launching a bond buying stimulus program and praised Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann's arguments against such moves.

In an interview with Bild newspaper on Sat, Schaeuble repeated his view that structural reforms are needed in some of the struggling euro zone countries.

"The ECB can make its decisions independently," Schaeuble said. "But cheap money should not be allowed to dent the reform zeal in some countries. There is no alternative to structural reforms - if things are going to improve again."

Schaeuble, when asked whether Weidmann has enough clout in the ECB, said: "Germany's voice has weight...But even if we're the strongest economy, Germany can't always get its way. At the end of the day a compromise is what's needed. But the arguments from Jens Weidmann are strong and are listened to in the ECB."

He added Chancellor Angela Merkel and he have an open dialogue with Draghi. "The Chancellor n me, the finance minister, are constantly having intensive discussions with Mario Draghi."

 

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AceTraderFx Dec 30: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
30 Dec 2014 02:21GMT

EUR/USD - ...... The single currency tumbled after meeting renewed selling at 1.2220 in Europe yesterday (Europe) due to early knee-jerk reaction to failed Greek parliamentary vote.
Stops below last week's 1.2165 low were triggered and price weakened to 1.2142 in NY and then 1.2135 in Asian morning today.

Offers are now tipped at 1.2150, 1.2160-65 and more at 1.2180. On the downside, some bids are located at 1.2130-20 with mixture of bids and stops seen at 1.2100 level.

Greek opposition leader Tsipras says 'if elected Syriza gov't would guarantee bank deposits in Greek banks.'

Yesterday, although the single currency found some support at 1.2191 in Europe and staged a recovery to 1.2215 in NY morning, renewed selling emerged and pressured the pair lower. Euro continued to remain under pressure and fell to 1.2178 at NY midday, weighed down by the news of failed Greek vote together with cross-selling of euro vs sterling.
Offers were now seen at 1.2190/00 and more above at 1.2210/20 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids were noted at 1.2150/60, suggesting selling on recovery was still favored.

Data to be released on Tuesday:

UK Nationwide house prices, Italy business confidence, producer prices, U.S. Redbook retail sales, CaseShiller home price n consumer confidence.

 

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AceTraderFx Jan 5: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

05 Jan 2015 01:16GMT

EUR/USD - ..... Although the single currency moved quietly above last Friday's fresh 4-1/2 year low of 1.2001 in NZ, price tumbled in thin Australian morning to a near 9-year bottom of 1.1861 (EBS).

Some cited selling to w/end euro-bearish news. Reuters reported the German gov't believes that the euro zone would now be able to cope with a Greece exit if that proved to be necessary, Der Spiegel news magazine reported on Sat, citing unnamed gov't sources.

Both Chancellor Angela Merkel n FinMin Wolfgang Schaeuble believe the euro zone has implemented enough reforms since the height of the regional crisis in 2012 to make a potential Greece exit manageable, Der Spiegel reported.

"The danger of contagion is limited because Portugal and Ireland are considered rehabilitated," the weekly news magazine quoted one gov't source saying.

In addition, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the euro zone's bailout fund, is an "effective" rescue mechanism and was now available, another source added. Major banks would be protected by the banking union.

It is still unclear how a EZ member country could leave the euro and still remain in the European Union, but Der Spiegel quoted a "high-ranking currency expert" as saying that "resourceful lawyers" would be able to clarify.

According to the report, the German gov't considers a Greece exit almost unavoidable if the leftwing Syriza opposition party led by Alexis Tsipras wins an election set for Jan. 25.

German Fin Min Schaeuble has already warned Greece against straying fm a path of economic reform, saying any new gov't would be held to the pledges made by the current Samaras gov't.

Data to be released this week:

Japan manufacturing PMI, Germany retail sales, CPI, HICP, Swiss manufacturing PMI, UK construction PMI and U.S. ISM New York index on Monday.

Australia exports, imports, trade balance, China services PMI, France consumer confidence, services PMI, Italy services PMI, Germany services PMI, UK services PMI, Canada producer prices, U.S. durable goods, factory orders, ISM non-manufacturing PMI and services PMI on Tuesday.

UK BRC shop price index, Halifax house price, Germany unemployment rate, Italy unemployment rate, EU inflation, unemployment rate, Canada exports, imports, trade balance, U.S. ADP employment, international trade and FOMC minutes on Wednesday.

Australia building approvals, Germany industrial orders, EU producer prices, retail sales, UK BoE rate decision and Canada new housing price on Thursday.

Australia retail sales, Japan leading indicator, Swiss unemployment rate, China CPI, PPI, Germany imports, exports, industrial output, trade balance, France exports, imports, industrial output, trade balance, UK industrial output, manufacturing output, trade balance, Canada building permits, unemployment rate, U.S. average earnings, non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, wholesale inventories and wholesale sales on Friday.

 

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AceTraderFx Jan 7: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
07 Jan 2015 08:00GMT

EUR/USD - ..... Euro fell briefly to a fresh near 9-year low of 1.1850 in thin Australian morning on Wed b4 moving sideways in Asia. Although European early birds tested the downside, renewed buying at 1.1855 has lifted the single currency at European open n price ratcheted higher to 1.1896.

Looks like minor consolidation is in store in European morning ahead of release of key EZ Dec inflation data at 10:00GMT, street forecast is looking for a further decline, if so, then euro wud come under renewed selling pressure on speculation of ECB's QE action at its next policy meeting on Jan 22. Therefore, selling euro on recovery is the way to go ahead of the data. Offers are tipped at 1.1895/1.1905 n more abv wud stops abv 1.1950/60, more stops are reported at 1.1980/90. Initial bids are noted at 1.1855-50 n more below (profit-taking).

This morning the single currency tumbled to a fresh near 9-year low at 1.1850 (Reuters) in Australian morning due to speculation that European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will begin quantitative easing as early as this month to combat the risk of deflation.
In other news, Bloomberg reported that ECB officials are working on a plan to buy government bonds as they strive to prevent a deflationary spiral of falling prices and households postponing spending and they may use a gathering tomorrow to weigh options for a quantitative-easing program that may be announced at their Jan. 22 policy meeting.

 

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AceTraderFx Jan 12: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Jan 2015 02:36GMT

EUR/USD - ....... Although the single currency eased after extending last Friday's rise to 1.1870 in thin Asian morning due to dlr's broad-based weakness, renewed buying interest is located at 1.1840 and more at 1.1820-10.
On the upside, some offers are tipped at 1.1880-90 with mixture of offers and stops seen at 1.1900.

Market players are still focusing on the coming ECB's rate decision on 22 Jan that may impose more stimulus.
Central-bank staff have presented policy makers with models for buying as much as 500 billion euros ($593 billion) of investment-grade assets, according to a person who attended a meeting of the Governing Council last week.

Data to be released this week:

Australia Housing Finance, U.S. Employment Trends on Monday. Markets in Japan will be closed for Coming of Age Day.

Japan's Current Account and Economic Watchers Poll, China's Trade Balance, Exports and Imports, Italy's Industrial Output, U.K.'s BRC Retail sales, CPI, PPI, RPI, U.S. Rebook and Federal Budget on Tuesday.

Japan's Machine Tool Orders, France's CPI, Italy's CI, U.K.'s CB leading economic index, U.S.'s Expots, Imports, Retail sales, Business Inventories and Fed's Beige Book on Wednesday.

Japan's Corp Goods Price and Machinery Orders, U.K.'s RICS Housing Survey, Australia's Employment, Unemployment, Participation Rate, Germany's GDP, U.S.'s PPI, NY Fed Manufacturing, Philly Fed Business Index on Thursday.

Germany's CPI and HICP, France Budget Balance, Switzerland Retail Sales, U.S. Real Weekly Earnings, CPI, Industrial Output, Capacity Utilization, University of Michigan Sentiment, Net Long-Term Flows on Friday.

 

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AceTraderFx Jan 20: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
20 Jan 2015 01:09GMT

EUR/USD - ....... Euro fell ahead of Asian open on Tuesday following a short-covering rally to 1.1639 in thin N. American session, some cited for the intra-day weakness on euro-bearish news.
Reuters reported Greece's anti-bailout opposition party Syriza appears to be gaining momentum with less than a week before Sunday's snap election, moving further ahead of the co-ruling conservatives in 3 separate opinion polls.

Syriza, which wants to renegotiate a chunk of Greek debt and end austerity measures, saw its poll lead grow to 6.5 points on Monday, according to a survey for the University of Macedonia conducted for Greece's SKAI Television, up from a 4.5 point lead shown by the same pollster last week.

Syriza would garner 33.5% of the vote, up from 31.5%, while PMr Antonis Samaras' New Democracy party, which has pushed through unpopular reforms as part of an international bailout, stood unchanged on 27%.

A Syriza victory could trigger a stand off with Greece's EU and IMF lenders and unleash a new financial crisis.

A 2nd survey on Monday, carried out by Alco for the newspaper Proto Thema, put Syriza on 33.1% with the conservatives on 28.5%, a 4.6 point lead for Syriza compared with a difference of 3.5 points in a poll by the same firm last week.

A 3rd survey by GPO for television station Mega also showed Syriza pulling ahead, this time from a lead of 3.2 points in a survey conducted nearly 2 weeks ago to 4 points, with the anti-bailout party on 30.4% compared to 26.4% for New Democracy.

All 3 pollsters indicated that centrist party Potami (River) could play the role of kingmaker if voters deliver a hung parliament, with the political movement created by a journalist-turned-politician coming in third place, although jointly with the far-right Golden Dawn party in one survey.

Tuesday will see the release of New Zealand's NZIER Business Confidence, China's GDP, Retail sales, Industrial Output, Germany's Producer Prices, ZEW Current Conditions, ZEW Economic Sentiment, Italy's Trade Balance, euro zone's ZEW Economic Sentiment, U.S.'s Redbook, NAHB Housing Market Index.

 

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AceTraderFx Jan 23: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Jan 2015 03:46GMT

EUR/USD - ..... With the major market event of ECB massive bond purchase announcement out of the way, the next focus is this Sun's Greek election.
Bloomberg reported the ECB set limits on accessing its bond-buying program that will exclude Greece for at least 6 months, raising pressure on whichever party wins Jan. 25 elections to heed the demands of official creditors.

The ECB decision locks Greece out of the QE program until policy questions raised by the vote have been resolved. Foremost among them is the strategy of Alexis Tsipras, whose Syriza party is leading PM Antonis Samaras's New Democracy in polls after he pledged to wring substantial concessions from the so-called troika of creditors.

Also reported were 2 separate surveys by the Alco and Rass polling companies published Wed in Athens showed a lead of as much as 4.9 percentage points for anti-bailout Syriza party over the premier's New Democracy party.

Greece's next gov't will have to decide on extending the international bailout program that expires at the end of Feb, with the country set to run out of cash by the end of Jun at the latest. While voters are attracted by a Syriza platform which includes opposing the terms attached to the aid, investors have been spooked by the implications of a potential Tsipras victory.

The two polls by Rass n Alco gave Syriza 31.2% n 32% respectively, compared with 27% n 27.1% for New Democracy. That suggests that even if Tsipras wins, he won't have enough lawmakers for a majority in Greece's 300-seat chamber.


Earlier the single currency nose-dived from 1.1651 to a fresh 11-year low at 1.1316 on Thursday after ECB President Mario Draghi told reporters in Frankfurt yesterday the central bank will buy 60 billion euros ($68 billion) a month of public and private debt until September 2016. Although short-covering bids above psychological level at 1.1300 provided brief support to euro, renewed selling at 1.1380 and more at 1.1400 shud cap euro's upside and yield another sell off later.
On the downside, mixture of bids and stops were located at 1.1800.

Market focus may shift to the upcoming election of Greece on Jan. 25 as ECB's president Mario Draghi said on Thursday that Greece will be ineligible for the ECB's 1.1 trillion-euro ($1.3 trillion) program until at least July because of limits on how much debt the central bank buys from a single issuer.

The European Central Bank set limits on accessing its bond-buying program that will exclude Greece for at least six months, raising pressure on whichever party wins Jan. 25 elections to heed the demands of official creditors.

According to a statement on the ECB's website, Greece must also complete a stalled review of its current bail out, as purchases from program countries will be suspended during such assessments.

 

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AceTraderFx Jan 28: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
28 Jan 2015 02:13GMT

EUR/USD - ...... Despite yesterday's rally to 1.1424 due to active short-covering, renewed selling there knocked price lower to 1.1333 in NY and then 1.1331 today.
Offers are tipped at 1.1390-00 and more at 1.1420-25.
On the downside, some bids are located at 1.1310-00 with stops seen below 1.1290.

According to Lars Loekke Rasmussen, the 50-year-old leader of Denmark opposition and the man who polls consistently show will become prime minister after elections due to take place by September. He said there's no point setting a date for a referendum on swapping Denmark's currency peg for full euro membership.

Yesterday despite the release of upbeat U.S. consumer confi., broad-based strength in European currencies pushed euro higher and price extended intra-day rally from 1.1224 (Asia) to 1.1422 in NY morning before easing due to some profit-taking.

Wednesday will see the release of Australia's Westpac leading index, CPI, RBA Trimmed Mean CPI, Switzerland UBS Consumption indicator, Germany's Gfk Consumer Sentiment, Import Price index, France's Consumer Confidence, FOMC rate decision and monetary policy statement.

 

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AceTraderFx Feb 3: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Feb 2015 02:14GMT

EUR/USD - ...... The single currency ratcheted higher to 1.1362 on Monday on renewed risk appetite n short-covering due to euro-positive news as Greece retreated from its call on the euro area to write down its debt, and instead proposed to exchange existing borrowings for new bonds linked to the country's growth.

Euro maintained a firm undertone in Asian morning and bids are now located at 1.1325-20 and more at 1.1310-05 with stop only seen below 1.1300.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.1360-65 n more at 1.1380.

Bloomberg news reported that Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis spoke to about 100 financiers in London late on Monday and outlined plans to swap some Greek debt owned by the European Central Bank and the European Financial Stability Fund for the new securities, according to a person who attended the meeting and asked not to be identified because they weren't authorized to speak publicly.

Reuters reported Germany's Angela Merkel will have the chance to meet Greece's new leader Alexis Tsipras at a EU summit on Feb. 12, while their 2 finance ministers will meet in coming days, officials said on Monday.

"The German gov't is looking forward to meeting the new Greek PM, there is no specific request for a meeting but there will be opportunities," Merkel's spokeswoman Christiane Wirtz told reporters, adding that Berlin was waiting to hear the Greek govt's ideas.
"There is a willingness and interest in having good relations with the Greek gov't, but Germany will stand by the foundations of its euro policy," Wirtz added.

Tuesday will see the release of Australia Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, Bulling Approvals, RBA rate decision and monetary policy statement, Switzerland's Trade Balance, UK's Markit/CIPS Construction PMI, Italy's CPI, euro zone Producer Prices, Canada Producer Prices, U.S's Redbook, and Factory orders.