Comments and forex-analytics from FBS Holdings Inc. brokerage company

[lollabun]

TD Securities: bearish on AUD/CAD
Thursday, April 26, 2012 - 10:30

Analysts at TD Securities claim that the downtrend within which Australian dollar is currently trading versus its US counterpart remains strong. In their view, AUD/CAD will drift down to the parity and then to 0.9900.

Support for the pair lies at 1.0155 (2012 minimum) and 1.0100 (long-term trend support). The specialists see the possibility of small corrections within the bearish trend, but the pair will be declining: “We rather think strongly trending oscillator signals will keep counter-trend rallies to a minimum and retain focus on the downside. Stay bearish while the 1.03 resistance remains intact.”

Chart. Daily AUD/CAD
TD Securities: bearish on AUD/CAD // FBS Markets Inc.

 

[lollabun]

Analysts: outlook for GBP/USD
Thursday, April 26, 2012 - 11:00

The preliminary GDP in Q1 unexpectedly shrank 0.2% vs. a 0.1% gain expected and a 0.3% contraction in Q4, meaning the Great-Britain has slid into a double-dip recession, according to yesterday’s release. Analysts split over the prospects of the sterling, despite the negative data.

UBS's analysts see the pair at $1.6200 in the following three months. They expect the yesterday’s GDP report to be revised soon, while the Britain’s PMI data look rather optimistic. In their view, the MPC is ready to tighten its monetary policy, so the pound has reasons for growth.

Technical analysts at Danske Bank recommend going long onthe sterling at the current levels, for a $1.6335 objective and with a stop at $1.6075. However, Commerzbank strategists advise to go short on the pound at $1.6130, with a stop over $1.6185 and targeting at $1.5900.

Chart. Daily GBP/USD
Analysts: outlook for GBP/USD // FBS Markets Inc.

 

[lollabun]

UBS: currency forecasts updated
Thursday, April 26, 2012 - 12:45

EUR/USD 1-month $1.30, 3-month $1.25;

GBP/USD 1-month $1.62, 3-month $1.62;

EUR/GBP 1-month 0.80, 3-month 0.77;

NZD/USD 1-month $0.82, 3-month $0.78.

UBS: currency forecasts updated // FBS Markets Inc.

 

[wynnasuju]

New Zealand: mixed data released
Monday, April 30, 2012 - 07:15

Statistics New Zealand reported on Monday that the trade surplus declined in March to NZ$134 million against NZ$202 million in February and NZ$445 million surplus expected. The decline is caused by an 8.7% fall in the value of exports; meanwhile, imports rose 1.2%

Building consents improved 19.8% in March after a 6.2% fall in February. NBNZ Business Confidence index increased to 35.8 in April against 33.8 in March, indicating strengthening business optimism.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has consistently warned that the high national currency hurts the tradable sector and puts a downward pressure on economic activity. Bank officials remarked last week that if the NZD remains high the economy may to look towards a monetary policy easing.

Nomura: The RBNZ has stepped up its rhetoric on the level of the NZD. We think this is just another attempt to talk the currency lower. We doubt any FX intervention will take place. We continue to look for opportunities to enter NZD long positions.

The NZD/USD continues a sideways movement in a $0.8060-0.8280 channel since March 2012.

Chart. Daily NZD/USD

New Zealand: mixed data released // FBS Markets Inc.

 

[wynnasuju]

USD/JPY down on recent data
Monday, April 30, 2012 - 09:00

The greenback touched a two-month low versus the yen today due to the disappointing U.S. GDP report, released on Friday. The estimated GDP growth in Q1 was 2.2% vs. 3.0% in the previous quarter.

Economists expect the interest rates to remain zero-bound at least through late 2014. The U.S. slowdown also revived speculation that the Fed may launch another QE or a bond-buying program.

Societe Generale: A flavor of QE is back in the air, driving the USD lower and risky assets higher.

On Tuesday watch out for the April ISM Manufacturing PMI index; in March the index was strong enough (53.4). The Non-Farm Payrolls (release on Friday) are forecasted to grow by 176K in April.

BNP Paribas: If we do get a weak ISM and a 125K increase in payrolls, the dollar weakness is going to continue.

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

USD/JPY down on recent data // FBS Markets Inc.

 

[wynnasuju]

Commerzbank: trading USD/JPY
Monday, April 30, 2012 - 09:15

Early Monday the USD/JPY dropped to 80.10 yen (50% retracement of the early 2012 growth and the bottom of the daily Ichimoku cloud).

According to analysts at Commerzbank, the breach of a 79.15 support (61.8% retracement) may let the dollar fall towards 78.34 yen (200-day MA). Resistance lies at 81.33, 82.28 (23.6% retracement), 82.51 (top of the cloud), 84.17 (high March 15).

Strategists recommend holding longs at 80.63., with a stop at 79.90 and covering 85.50. In a shorter term a correction to 79.15 is expected, but the long term targets lie at 83.80 and 85.50.

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

Commerzbank: trading USD/JPY // FBS Markets Inc.

 

[wynnasuju]

Analysts: trading GBP/USD
Monday, April 30, 2012 - 10:00

GBP/USD reached $1.6300 (the highest since Aug. 31) on Monday after strengthening for an 11 consequent days. However, the pair is overbought and has entered a declining phase, breaching below the opening price at $1.6274.

Most analysts are bullish on the cable’s prospects these days. For example, strategists at Danske Bank advice to buy the pair for a revised $1.6380 objective and with a stop at $1.6160. Commerzbank suggests to buy with a stop $1.6165 and a $1.6425 target. UBS strategists believe the cable will remain at $1.6200 for the next 1 to 3 months.

Recent report showed U.K. house prices increased in April for a second month. Today will be released the core personal consumption expenditure price index and personal income figures in the U.S. The U.K. Manufacturing PMI will be announced tomorrow morning and forecasts point out to a slight decrease from 52.1 to 51.4.

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

Analysts: trading GBP/USD // FBS Markets Inc.

 

[wynnasuju]

USD/CAD up after GDP
Monday, April 30, 2012 - 14:00

The Canadian dollar drops against the greenback after the unexpected contraction of nation’s GDP, weakening the expectations for the interest rate hike from current 1.0%.

Canada’s gross domestic product shrank by 0.2% in February vs. 0.2% growth expected and 0.1% growth in January. Moreover, Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) declined 1.6% vs. 0.4% forecasted largely because of mineral fuels. Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) edged up 0.2% in March, led by higher prices for petroleum and coal products.

Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Timothy Lane said on Monday it may become appropriate to withdraw some of the considerable monetary policy stimulus the bank is providing. Lane’s words are echoing the recent remarks of the BoC Governor Mark Carney.

The USD/CAD pair strengthened to C$0.9871. Resistance lies at $0.9880 (high Apr.25), $0.9928 (21-day MA) and $1.0012 (high Apr.17), while support - at 0.9800 (low Apr.27), 0.9766 (low Sep.19) and 0.9755 (low Sep.1).

Chart. Daily USD/CAD

USD/CAD up after GDP // FBS Markets Inc.

 

[wynnasuju]

Aussie falls on RBA rate cuts
Tuesday, May 1, 2012 - 08:00

The Australian dollar fell against its major counterparts after Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly cut its main cash rate by 50 bps to 3.75%. Market expected the bank to be less dovish and to lower rates by 25 bps to 4.0%.

According to bank officials, for the next two years the inflation will be lower than forecasted earlier but still within RBA's target range of 2-3%. The housing market remains subdued (Q1 House Price Index fell -1.1% vs. 0.4% decline forecasted).

AMP Capital Investors: A 25 bps cut would be meaningless, whereas a 50 bps move will lead to decent reduction in borrowing costs. It probably needs a couple more cuts going forward; we will probably see cash rates down to 3.25% by the year end.

RBC Caital Markets: It leaves the door open for further easing. Growth was obviously lower than they expected and their inflation forecast will be marked lower on Friday.

In a year-over-year comparison Australian RBA Commodity Index decreased 4.2% in April, following a 2.7% rise in March. Manufacturing PMI in China, Australia’s important trade partner, has disappointed investors after falling to 53.3 vs. 53.6 expected.

AUD/USD fell to $1.0312 on today’s negative data. However, some analysts still believe the AUD dip presents a buying opportunity. Support for the cross lies at 1.0300 (strong psychological support) and 1.0246 (low April 24) levels, while resistance - at 1.0346 (21-day MA), 1.0357 (200-day MA) and 1.0445 (100-day MA).

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

Aussie falls on RBA rate cuts // FBS Markets Inc.

 

[wynnasuju]

Cable drops on PMI data
Tuesday, May 1, 2012 - 09:00

According to the data released today, U.K. Manufacturing PMI declined in April to 50.5 compared with the consensus forecast 51.4.
Everyone who follows the issue remembers how March data positively surprised the markets with 51.9 reading (the index is above 50, so the industry expands). Economists explain the slowdown with a sharp decline in export demand. The easing of new orders from the US and Asia is worrying as a potential risk to continued growth, as these have helped to balance out weaker demand in recent months.
USD/GBP has slipped to the 1.6200 level after demonstrating an impressive growth as of late. The next support for the cable lies at 1.6153 (low Apr.27) and 1.6082 (low Apr.25). On the upside, a break above 1.6298 (Upper Bollinger) would bring 1.6304 (high Apr.30) and then 1.6335 (high Aug.31).

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

Cable drops on PMI data // FBS Markets Inc.