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Daily economic digest from Forex.ee​

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Tuesday, September 13th

GBP/USD

Current price: 1.3317 (-0.1%)
Session range: Open 1.3336 High 1.3342 Low 1.3312
Latest trend: Bearish
Expected trend: Bullish
Daily volatility: Moderate
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.3193 R. 1.3417
Main drivers: UK CPI
Overview: Currently the pound is losing ground sliding down from its consolidative corridor to its daily lows towards the level of 1.3300, as US currency is gathering pace in early Europe. However, the upcoming UK CPI is limiting pairs moving range as traders refrain to make important decisions, as it remains the most risky event of this Tuesday. Moreover, further downside move appears capped as markets are still digesting yesterday’s dovish comments of Fed Governor L.Brainard, as she noted that Fed shouldn’t rush on rate rising.

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Wednesday, September 14th

GBP/USD

Current price: 1.3212 (0.1%)
Session range: Open 1.3190 High 1.3229 Low 1.3166
Latest trend: Bullish
Expected trend: Bullish
Daily volatility: Moderate
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.3059 R. 1.3405
Main drivers: UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus, Claimant Count Change
Overview: Currently the pound is attempting to recover part of its losses after yesterday’s aggressive sell-off. Yesterday the major lost nearly two cents on the back of poor UK CPI refreshing 8-day lows at 1.3167 spot. However, the pound has met fresh bid tone today as traders are performing profit-taking actions this morning coupled with renewed risk-on sentiments that are supporting UK currency and pushing it higher above the level of 1.3200.

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Thursday, September 15th

GBP/USD

Current price: 1.3237 (0.0%)
Session range: Open 1.3235 High 1.3280 Low 1.3199
Latest trend: Bearish
Expected trend: Bullish
Daily volatility: High
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.3100 R. 1.3306
Main drivers: UK Interest Rate Decision, BoE MPC Meeting Minutes, US Retail Sales, US PPI, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Overview: The GBP/USD pair has retreated from its today high posted at 1.3278 spot and now is wobbling near the mid-1.3200 level. The pair is moving in north direction for the second session in a row after refreshing August lows at 1.3140 level ahead of major event of this week – BOE Interest Rate Decision followed by MPC Meeting Minutes. Currently traders are staying in stay-and-see mode anticipating for fresh comments regarding post-Brexit concerns.

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Friday, September 16th

GBP/USD

Current price: 1.3215 (-0.2%)
Session range: Open 1.3237 High 1.3248 Low 1.3191
Latest trend: Bearish
Expected trend: Bearish
Daily volatility: Moderate
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.3132 R. 1.3330
Main drivers: US Core CPI
Overview: Currently the pair is staying in its consolidative phase amid lack of momentum as most of Asian markets remain closed. Seems that pound’s bulls are out of steam at the start of European session, after disappointing data from US economy seen yesterday. However, the pound is still experiencing slight pressure as markets are still digesting yesterday’s BOE meeting outcome.

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Monday, September 19th

EUR/USD

Current price: 1.1156 (0.0%)
Session range: Open 1.1156 High 1.1174 Low 1.1152
Latest trend: Bearish
Expected trend: Bearish
Daily volatility: Low
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.1084 R. 1.1284
Main drivers: None
Overview: Currently the pair is retreating from its daily top posted at 1.1173 spot as markets are still digesting Friday’s strong US figures. However, the American dollar remains highly pressured today despite positive US CPI data as the probability of Fed rate hike this Wednesday is only 12%, while chances of rate hike in December remain under 50%. Today amid absence of releases from Euroland, the pair will follow the global market sentiments that are driven lately by expectations of Fed Interest Rate decision.


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Tuesday, September 20th

EUR/USD

Current price: 1.1188 (0.1%)
Session range: Open 1.1175 High 1.1214 Low 1.1168
Latest trend: Bullish
Expected trend: Bearish
Daily volatility: Low
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.1126 R. 1.1220
Main drivers: US Housing Starts, US Building Permits
Overview: The pair has performed sharp upsurge breaking through the level of 1.1200 as aggressive sell-off sentiments have gripped the dollar in early Europe. Moreover, seems that markets have majorly ignored poor German PPI this morning providing no bearish impetus to the euro. However, amid of absence of any fundamental releases from Euroland the pair will follow market sentiments that are mainly driven by speculations of Fed rate hike this Wednesday, while US will provide data from housing market later in NY session.


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Wednesday, September 21st

USD/JPY

Current price: 102.29 (0.6%)
Session range: Open 101.70 High 102.81 Low 101.01
Latest trend: Bearish
Expected trend: Bearish
Daily volatility: Moderate
Support and resistance levels: S. 101.22, R. 102.30
Main drivers: Fed Interest Rate Decision, Speech of Fed Chair J.Yellen.
Overview: Today the pair witnessed a huge swing after BOJ has announced its decision to keep benchmark rate unchanged during its policy review meeting refreshing its 4-week lows in region of 101.01 level. However, the pair has bounced back to its 5-day highs posted at 102.78 as BOJ has showed readiness of monetary policy further easing until inflation exceeds the level of 2%. Later in NY session the Fed monetary policy decision that could determine further near-term direction for the pair will take center stage.

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Thursday, September 22nd

EUR/USD

Current price: 1.1232 (0.4%)
Session range: Open 1.1188 High 1.1250 Low 1.1183
Latest trend: Bullish
Expected trend: Bearish
Daily volatility: Low
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.1095 R. 1.1243
Main drivers: Speech of the ECB President M.Draghi, US Existing Home Sales
Overview: Finally, the major breaks through its key resistance level of 1.1200 as European session opens doors. Yesterday market participants remained unsatisfied by dovish FOMC Statement that left situation around this year Fed rate hike even more unclear as it was before. Moreover, yesterday as it was expected the Fed left its interest rate unchanged adding some bearish momentum to the dollar.


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Friday, September 23rd

EUR/USD

Current price: 1.1197 (-0.1%)
Session range: Open 1.1208 High 1.1220 Low 1.1193
Latest trend: Bearish
Expected trend: Bullish
Daily volatility: Low
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.1143 R. 1.1289
Main drivers: None
Overview: Seems that euro bulls remained unimpressed by mixed data from Eurozone. Currently the euro has lost its smile and retreats to the red zone printed near the level of 1.1200 down from this session highs marked at 1.1220 as Eurozone preliminary PMI and several local releases has shown mixed results this morning. Most likely, today the pair will stay in mercy of global market sentiment as nothing important in scheduled for the end of this week.

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Monday, September 26th

EUR/USD

Current price: 1.1239 (0.1%)
Session range: Open 1.1228 High 1.1244 Low 1.1221
Latest trend: Bullish
Expected trend: Bearish
Daily volatility: Low
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.1171 R. 1.1265
Main drivers: US New Home Sales, Speech of the ECB President M.Draghi.
Overview: Today the pair has managed to regain its bullish momentum in early Europe. Amid lack of momentum the euro has muted its bullish momentum during Asia based on dovish comments from FOMC members after its meeting that took place last week. However, positive data from Germany has recommenced pair’s growth pushing it through the level of 1.1200. Later President of ECB M.Draghi will give a speech and US economy will release data from housing market that will determine further pair’s direction.

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