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Daily economic digest from Forex.ee​

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Tuesday, September 27th

EUR/USD

Current price: 1.1244 (-0.1%)
Session range: Open 1.1254 High 1.1260 Low 1.1235
Latest trend: Bearish
Expected trend: Bearish
Daily volatility: Low
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.1191 R. 1.1309
Main drivers: US prelim. Services PMI, US CB Consumer Confidence
Overview: Seems that the euro has lost ground against its American peer after four session of winning streak. Today the pair came under selling pressure in response to H.Clinton's win at the first US presidential debate against her Republican opponent, D.Trump. Additionally, pair’s bears were supported this morning by renewed risk-on sentiments across the financial markets. On the data front the Eurozone today will remain silent with only secondary releases due today while US fundamentals will take center stage later in NA session.

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Wednesday, September 28th

EUR/USD

Current price: 1.1219 (0.0%)
Session range: Open 1.1215 High 1.1224 Low 1.1181
Latest trend: Bearish
Expected trend: Bullish
Daily volatility: Low
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.1153 R. 1.1289
Main drivers: US Durable Goods Orders, Fed Chair J.Yellen Testimony, Speech of the ECB President M.Draghi
Overview: Today the euro is losing grip for the second session in a row as the US dollar has regained its bid tone forcing the pair to refresh its daily lows below the level of 1.1200. The demand for the greenback is majorly based on the outcome of the first US presidential debates seen last Monday. Later today the ECB President’s M.Draghi speech in Berlin will take center stage while US Durable Goods Orders, Fed Chair J.Yellen’s testimony and set of Fed members speeches will be closely watched for setting up pair’s short term direction.
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Thursday, September 29th

USD/CAD

Current price: 1.3086 (0.1%)
Session range: Open 1.3079 High 1.3104 Low 1.3048
Latest trend: Bearish
Expected trend: Bullish
Daily volatility: Moderate
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.2946 R. 1.3334
Main drivers: US GDP, US Pending Home Sales, Fed Chair J.Yellen’s Speech
Overview: Seems that CAD bulls took a breather after massive downside rally witnessed yesterday. Currently Canadian dollar is trading almost unchanged vs. its American neighbor consolidating its two-cent down surge since yesterday’s highs. Yesterday OPEC members agreed to limit oil production levels that should be executed at its next meeting scheduled for November. This announcement brought massive wave of buying interest to resource-linked Loonie. Looking ahead, the pair will stay in mercy of oil price dynamics until the NA session where US will release its GDP report followed by several Fed speaks.

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Friday, September 30th

EUR/USD

Current price: 1.1186 (-0.3%)
Session range: Open 1.1221 High 1.1227 Low 1.1168
Latest trend: Bearish
Expected trend: Bearish
Daily volatility: Low
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.1169 R. 1.1275
Main drivers: EU prelim. CPI, US Personal Spending
Overview: After modestly flat Asian session the pair has faced strong rejection dropping below 1.1200 support as the latest German data had shown slightly worse results as it was expected. Moreover, uncertainty around Deutsche Bank has gripped European market decreasing risk associated sentiments thereby boosting the euro bears. Focus now shifts to the preliminary EU CPI data, that expectedly will provide the pair with fresh impetus.

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Monday, October 3rd

GBP/USD

Current price: 1.2858 (-0.9%)
Session range: Open 1.2919 High 1.2947 Low 1.2845
Latest trend: Bearish
Expected trend: Bullish
Daily volatility: Low
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.2847 R. 1.3064
Main drivers: UK Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Overview: Currently the pair remains just a few pips away from post-Brexit lows leaded generally by Brexit Article 50 impact that approaches the end of UK’s membership in EU. The UK’s PM T.May has stated that control over the migration is more important than “hard Brexit” times that are coming ahead. Today Brexit uncertainty will cause strong influence on the GBP while UK and US PMI’s also will be watched for a short-term impact.

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Tuesday, October 4th

GBP/USD

Current price: 1.2773 (-0.5%)
Session range: Open 1.2842 High 1.2861 Low 1.2756
Latest trend: Bearish
Expected trend: Bearish
Daily volatility: Low
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.2737 R. 1.2997
Main drivers: UK Construction PMI, FOMC Member J.Lacker’s Speech.
Overview: The pound is experiencing strong selling pressure since the start of this week following the latest comments of PM of UK T.May noting that Article 50 could be invoked by the end of the March, 2017. Currently the pair is losing almost two cents since this Monday continuing its downside rally and breaking post-Brexit lows under the crucial support level of 1.2800. Moreover, stronger positions seen behind the dollar are additionally boosting pound bears as market is still digesting yesterday’s strong US manufacturing PMI figures. Traders now await for UK Construction PMI which could bring some relief to the pair supporting bulls by positive data.

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Wednesday, October 5th

EUR/USD

Current price: 1.1217 (0.1%)
Session range: Open 1.1204 High 1.1230 Low 1.1199
Latest trend: Bullish
Expected trend: Bearish
Daily volatility: Low
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.1092 R. 1.1294
Main drivers: US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Overview: Currently the pair is extending its yesterday’s rebound performed after Bloomberg agency had stated that ECB could cut off its further monetary policy easing program. Yesterday on the back of Bloomberg’s announcement the pair has reversed its two-week lows spiking the level of 1.1200. Adding to that, US bulls are out of steam today in wake of American dollar’s price correction actions. Yesterday, USD index hit a new three-month high triggered by risen probability of this year Fed rate hike.

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Thursday, October 6th

EUR/USD

Current price: 1,1185 (-0,2%)
Session range: Open 1.1205 High 1.1214 Low 1.1184
Latest trend: Bearish
Expected trend: Bearish
Daily volatility: Low
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.1165 R. 1.1253
Main drivers: US Initial Jobless Claims
Overview: Today American dollar trades on a firm note against its rivals majorly supported by risen probability of Fed hawkish interest rate move. Once again the major has broken through the level of 1.1200 as the market is still digesting yesterdays, stronger-than-expected economic data provided by US economy. Only secondary data releases are scheduled in today’s data calendar. Meanwhile, the US NFP report will take center-stage tomorrow.


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Friday, October 7th

GBP/USD

Current price: 1.2453 (-1.3%)
Session range: Open 1.2615 High 1.2625 Low 1.1991
Latest trend: Bearish
Expected trend: Bullish
Daily volatility: Low
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.2399 R. 1.2715
Main drivers: UK Manufacturing Production, US Nonfarm Payrolls, US Unemployment Rate
Overview: The pound is consolidating part of its unseen drop of 5 figures. Today in the mid-Asia the GBP/USD pair fell from 1.2610 to its record lows of 1.1991 and there are no direct cues on what caused this collapse. Some analytics believe that it is market’s reaction on French President F.Hollande comments regarding Brexit negotiations, some others think that “Fat finger” or crash in bank liquidity system could cause this type of consequences. But for sure it became possible only after T.May comments of “hard Brexit” that had triggered major sell-off of the pound. Currently the GBP/USD pair is trading near mid-1.24 level partially recovering its position.


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Monday, October 17th

GBP/USD

Current price: 1,2160 (-0,2%)
Session range: Open 1.2155 High 1.2198 Low 1.2150
Latest trend: Bearish
Expected trend: Bearish
Daily volatility: High
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.2110 R. 1.2296
Main drivers: US Industrial Production
Overview: The GBP/USD cross has opened today with 30 pips gap thereby attracting major part of investors’ attention. The pound continues to wobble near its record low level remaining under strong selling pressure as rumors of “hard Brexit” are still influencing the market. Moreover, the latest comments from French President F.Hollande and German Chancellor A.Merkel are also adding fuel to “hard Brexit” fears. Meanwhile, growing probability of this year Fed rate-hike is accelerating US bulls limiting pound’s chances of immediate recovery.

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