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Wednesday, November 2nd

EUR/USD

Current price: 1.1077 (0.2%)
Session range: Open 1.1055 High 1.1100 Low 1.1049
Latest trend: Bullish
Expected trend: Bearish
Daily volatility: Low
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.0918 R. 1.1136
Main drivers: German Unemployment Change, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Fed Interest Rate Decision
Overview: The pair is showing significant increase lately, erasing the most part of October’s losses and moving toward crucial resistance level of 1.1100. According to the latest polls D.Trump is getting into a lead in presidential election race vs. H.Clinton after recently reopened investigation of H.Clinton’s email is boosting major sell-off of US dollar. Next on tap remain several local EU manufacturing PMIs with German data from labor market that will provide fresh impetus to the major in Europe, while FOMC meeting should grab all the attention later in the NA session.

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Thursday, November 3rd

News that D.Trump is in the lead of US presidential election race following an ABC/Washington Post poll’s results are still gripping the market negatively influencing US dynamic as investors think that D.Trump’s taxation program will drive US economy back to recession.

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Monday, November 7th

According to the latest polls H.Clinton is back in the lead as FBI has cleared Democratic candidate form recently reopened H.Clinton’s email case. The FBI has noted that the email case is nothing more than carelessness, but not the criminal case. That comments have triggered a new buying wave of the greenback across the market this Monday as less than two days remain until we find out who will be next president of US. Nothing as much important as US presidential elections is scheduled in event calendar for this week, so market participants will stay watching for the latest developments surrounding US political situation.

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Tuesday, November 8th


Things are moving, US presidential elections has begun. And the first voters were the residents of a small mountain town called Dixville Notchin in New Hampshire, that is located directly on the border with Canada. And the results of the exit poll are: H.Clinton 4 votes, D.Trump – 2 votes, other candidates received by one vote each. The town’s population is 12 people, and only 8 of which took part in the vote. An international news agency Reuters says that H.Clinton has 90% chances to win this race this fact strongly supports US dollar. Moreover, according to popular vote results H.Clinton is leading US presidential election with 45% of votes vs. 42% owned by D.Trump but the final results will be released later in Europe.


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Wednesday, November 9th

D.Trump managed to reverse the course of the US election race today and now is expanding his lead over H.Clinton. With D.Trump’s win in key swing states by the poll results most of the popular news agencies have predicted victory of the candidate from Republican Party with a probability of 90%. D.Trump’s leadership in US election race remains a main surprise of this Wednesday, as just yesterday the main candidate for presidential chair was H.Clinton. Leader of the National Front party of the France Marine Le Pen has already congratulated Donald Trump in her twitter.

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Thursday, November 10th

And so it is. US presidential elections are over and the next president of the US is Donald Trump. D.Trump’s victory in the elections caused mixed sentiments across the market as a large number of politicians and economists do not share next president’s political views. So now all focus shifts to the implications of the past US elections on the economic and political state of America and the US currency in particular. Moreover, uncertainty around D.Trump’s candidacy may also cause some fluster across the market. However, experts do not await large changes in near-term perspective due to resistance from Congress and that is why the US economy will keep its moderate growth pace around 2%.

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Friday, November 11th

Taking into account that D.Trump is the next president of the US many news agencies have already started to digest upcoming impact of the changes related to D.Trump’s political views. In the long-term perspective Trump’s policy is broadly supporting US currency as upcoming business and personal tax cuts should attract fresh injections in the US economy. Moreover, D.Trump’s changes in taxation system should trigger boost of the economic growth and US currency’s in particular that also will impact the FX market. However, developments around the upcoming changes remain uncertain, but hopefully D.Trump’s actions in a next few weeks will bring more clarity on this measure.


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Monday, November 14th

The USD continues to show moderate growing pace across the market majorly supported by post-election sentiments. Trump’s win in the US elections continues to drive the market as now investors are awaiting for fresh stimulus of economic growth. D.Trump during his election campaign has made several announcements that imply tax cuts and increased spending on infrastructure. However, Trump’s announcements bring little of clarity on how such programs will be financed.

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Tuesday, November 15th

Today the dollar is trading broadly weaker as investors have decided to take the profit off the table after massive post-election rally. However, dollar’s weakness remains capped as dust around election has settled down and rumors of this year Fed’s rate-hike are getting control over the market. Moreover, prospects of additional fiscal stimulus during D.Trump’s presidency are also supporting the US dollar. Today the market is expecting for crucial report of US Retail Sales for another hint of next Fed’s move.


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Wednesday, November 16th

The euro continues its streak of defeats against US currency loosing points for eighth session in a raw. The dollar has recovered smile after minor price correction seen yesterday as rising chances of Fed’s hawkish move remain as main support factor for the US dollar. The probability of this year Fed rate-hike has grown up to 90%. Moreover, better risk tone seen last hours also is negatively influencing the EUR/USD pair, sending it to retest key support level of 1.0700 that is the lowest level of this year. Next on tap for the pair remains data bloc from US economy with PPI in the main role.

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