Forex.ee: Daily economic news digest from Forex.ee

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Tuesday, December 6th

Having faced resistance near yesterday highs, marked in 0.75 region, the AUD/USD pair has come under renewed selling pressure stepping down to its comfort zone located near 0.7450 level. Today the Aussie was unable to benefit from RBA’s decision of keeping its interest rate unchanged as dovish statement announced after RBA’s meeting showed bank’s expectations of a slower economy growth rate in short-term perspective. Moreover, lower commodities witnessed this morning are also providing some bearish momentum to resource-linked currencies such as Australian dollar. Nothing important is scheduled for the pair in data calendar for today, so the major will keep floating under influence of global market sentiments awaiting for Australian GDP scheduled for next Asian session.

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Wednesday, December 7th

The Aussie fell sharply this morning in the pair with American peer as Australian economy provided the market with extremely disappointing data. The AUD/USD pair performed abrupt downslide for 60 pips refreshing its two-days lows at 0.7417 spot as Australian GDP on quarter basis missed markets expectations showing drop for 0.5% vs. expected growth of 0.3%. After yesterday’s RBA flat decision on its interest rate, investors had started to reconsider their forecast of Australian economic growth rate in better way, that turned pointless. Today traders will await for data from US labor market and weekly Crude Oil Inventories but most probably it won’t be able recover morning’s disappointment.

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Thursday, December 8th

The USD/CAD pair corrects after yesterday’s massive rally triggered by BoC’s decision. As it was widely expected yesterday the Bank of Canada left its interest rate unchanged and presented a moderate economic growth outlook sending the pair to the lowest level since October, marked at 1.3208 spot. Moreover, pair’s decline was also supported by better tone in oil prices after higher-than-expected drop in oil inventories released straight away after the decision of the BoC. Expectedly today the pair will extend its corrective move as only secondary data releases are scheduled in data calendar from both sides.

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Friday, December 9th

Today the euro bears took a breather in Asia allowing the EUR/USD pair to recover part of its recent significant losses. Yesterday the major currency pair slipped down for a two figures after the ECB announced its intention to extend its QE program. The ECB will prolong its monetary policy easing measures beyond March 2017 to at least December 2017, but will also cut the monthly bond purchase from 80 billion down to 60 billion EUR. Reacting on that the pair fell sharply refreshing its 4-day lows in the region of 1.06. Today the major will continue trading under bearish pressure as the market is still digesting yesterday’s ECB announcement especially in light of ongoing speculations of Fed’s decision scheduled on the next week.


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Monday, December 12th

On Sunday 13 non OPEC members agreed to cut its oil outputs in total by 558kbpd, most of which (300kbpd) will take Russia. This amount of cuts will be added to total OPEC agreed oil production cuts of 1.2mbpd. The total volume of oil output cuts is amounting to nearlya 2% of global oil supply. Reacting on that oil prices have refreshed its tops on levels last seen in July 2015. Moreover, inspired by oil price rally commodity-linked currencies such as CAD and AUD have also benefited from the latest headlines. Currently the USD/CAD pair is trading near its 2-moht low, marked at 1.3112, while the Aussie has also recovered a smile against its American counterpart regaining some pips after downside rally witnessed last Friday. And now the AUD/USD pair now is hovering in region of 0.7450 level.

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Tuesday, December 13th

Currently the EUR/USD is trading in a flat range of 15 pips consolidating yesterday’s gains in the region of 1.0630 on the back of dollar’s correction across the market. Yesterday the pair was able to gain some pips as traders have started to perform profit-taking actions in anticipation of crucial event of this week. However, the main currency pair failed on several attempts to build its bullish momentum during Asia as returned demand for US currency ahead of two-day FOMC meeting is limiting pair’s upside tractions. The immediate focus now lays on the ZEW economic surveys that will be released during Europe while, the US economy will bring today only secondary macro data.

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Wednesday, December 14th

The day of the most discussed event is here. Today the Fed will announce a decision regarding its further monetary policy. The market is widely expecting that the Fed will increase its interest rate by 25 bps, from current 0.50% to 0.75% as odds of today’s rate hike are close to 100%. Moreover, recent presidential elections with D.Trump’s promises of tax cuts and high investments in US infrastructure are also pushing FOMC members to make hawkish decision today. Furthermore, not only D.Trump’s talks are making Fed’s rate-hike possible, macroeconomic data seen over the last few months were highly supportive that also contributes to further monetary policy tightening. But for now, seems that the market is keeping silence ahead of crucial Fed’s decision that will be announced by the end of NA session.

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Thursday, December 15th

And the decision is made. As it was widely expected yesterday the Fed increased its interest rate by 25 bps from previous 0.50% to current 0.75%, significantly boosting the US currency against its major peers. Moreover, the Fed in its statement, announced straight away after FOMC meeting, showed hawkish intentions of having 3 more interest rate hikes during 2017, up from 2 previously planned. Fed's Chairwoman J.Yellen during her interview also has provided the US dollar with some bullish impetus noting that interest rate raise should be perceived as confidence in the US economy. The US Dollar index that measures dollar’s positions against its main competitors rose up to 102.58 once again refreshing its 13-year highs.

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Friday, December 16th

Yesterday the pair EUR/USD refreshed its 14-year lows at 1.0366 spot inspired by recent events from US economy. However, the euro bulls were able to retake control over the pair by the end of the NA session and now the major is expanding its recovery beyond the level of 1.04. Expectedly the pair will continue to extend its rebound following US dollar’s dynamics while Eurozone’s CPI and data from US housing market will also be closely watched for any short-term impetus on the pair.

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Monday, December 19th

The EUR/USD continues to build recovery at the start of the week from its 14-year lows marked last at 1.0366 spot. Currently the main currency pair is trading above the mid-point of 1.04 level finding support from ongoing correction of the US dollar against its major peers. However, pair’s recovery seems to be capped as better tone amid risk associated assets, driven by higher oil prices, is pressuring on the major. Today beside US dollar’s dynamics the pair will also be influenced by German Ifo Business Climate Index released in early Europe and by Fed Chairwoman J.Yellen’s speech that is scheduled on NA session.

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