Forex.ee: Daily economic news digest from Forex.ee

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Monday, November 21st

The ongoing speculations around upcoming OPEC meeting, where agreement between countries oil exporters about crude oil output freeze could be reached continue to drive the market. Moreover, over the weekend President of the Russian Federation V.Putin stated that there is high probability that OPEC members will reach an agreement on oil output issue as Russia is ready to freeze its oil production at current level. Also V.Putin has noted in his comments that main contradictions among OPEC members, if they still exist, could be eliminated during OPEC meeting. After the statement of Russian President, the oil prices, opened with bullish gap, are lending support to commodity-linked currencies such as Canadian and Australian dollars.

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Tuesday, November 22nd

And another natural disaster hits Asia but this time earthquake strikes Japanese region near Fukushima nuclear power station. Japanese officials have already calmed down the community noting that there is no danger of radiation leak and the government is ready to deal with any consequences done by nature. Moreover, the Japan Meteorological Agency has also calmed nervousness among investors stating that there is no danger of tsunami caused by earthquake. Reacting on situation in Japan the USD/JPY pair has dropped to 110.27 level as immediately shrank risk sentiments have supported the yen. However, the major has recovered the ground and now is trading back above the level of 111.00 mostly directed by global markets sentiments. With absolutely empty data calendar of Japan the USD/JPY pair today will keep following global risk sentiments and USD dynamic until NA session, when US economy will release housing market data.


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Thursday, November 24th

The dollar is showing extremely strong growth pace lately as US economy provides continuing support to its currency. Yesterday hawkish FOMC Meeting Minutes once again confirmed markets expectations of Fed’s hawkish interest rate decision, allowing the US dollar Index to break through its crucial resistance level of 102 and refresh its 13-years highs. Additionally, yesterday US economy beat market’s expectations with surprisingly strong report of Durable Goods Orders. Today US market will remain closed on the occasion of Thanksgiving Day. However, expectedly that demand for US dollar will continue to dominate across the market.

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Friday, November 25th

The yen continues to extend its fall against American counterpart after relatively weak inflation reports witnessed in Asia. Today the USD/JPY pair has met another wave of buying pressure nearly reaching the 114 spot and refreshing its 8-months high after Japanese consumer price data met markets expectation showing subsidence of the inflation rate in October and November. Such results cast doubt on BoJ’s forecast of inflation’s 2% growth rate in the next year. However, the pair has rebounded from its multi-month highs and now is trading near the region of 113 on the back of US dollar’s correction across the market. Today the pair will remain under bullish pressure as markets continue to digest the latest Japanese CPI figures.


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Monday, November 28th

The US dollar index is losing some points at the start of this week extending its correction rally. Last week the dollar showed sharply stronger performances against basket of major currencies reaching the highest level for the last 13-years, marked at 102 spot, as ongoing speculations over the Fed rate-hike were significantly boosting US dollar’s bulls. However, as market participants have already priced in next Fed’s hawkish interest rate decision the dollar has gradually begun to retreat from its multiyear highs. Moreover, today oil’s price downside rally has eased traders’ risk appetite thereby landing some bearish pressure on the dollar across the market.

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Tuesday, November 29th

Nervousness around upcoming OPEC meeting is significantly influencing the market. This morning became known that Iran is ready to reach a deal in oil production freeze question. Today Iran’s Minister of Petroleum stated that Iran is ready to cut oil production within OPEC quotas. Moreover, Iran’s Minister of Petroleum noted that the US election results did not affect new contracts for oil and gas that is why an agreement could be reached. On the other hand, Russian Minister of energy provided the market with comments that Russia is not going to take part in the OPEC meeting as it remains non-OPEC member. Today market participants will continue to pay attention to developments surrounding the upcoming OPEC meeting that is scheduled for tomorrow, 30th of November.


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Wednesday, November 30th

Wednesday is here and all attention as it was expected is focused on the one of the most important events of this week – OPEC meeting, that will begin today at 11.00 (+2 GMT) in Vienna. The main topic of this meeting remains oil production volume cut. So the market has already started to price in crucial agreement between OPEC members, as even Iranian oil minister has noted that Iran promises to be flexible to reach a deal. The OPEC members are trying to reach a deal for the last 11-months every time promising to agree on oil production issue. So today the market will unlikely accept anything less than oil output cut deal. The result of the OPEC meeting will expectedly provide significant impact on oil prices and eventually on the resource-linked currencies, such as Canadian, Australian and NZ dollars. The press conference, where the final decision will be announced will begin at 17.00 (+2 GMT). However, until then all eyes will remain on developments surrounding the crucial meeting.

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Thursday, December 1st

In the first winter day the market participants continue to digest the first OPEC output cut deal, witnessed since 2008. Yesterday as it was widely expected OPEC members came to agreement to cut oil production level by 1.2 mbpd to 32.5 mbpd. Saudi Arabia will reduce its output by 486 kbpd while Iraq agreed to cut production by 210 kbpd. The main obstacle remains the involvement of non-OPEC members to cut their oil production. However, in its turn Russia has already agreed to cut its oil output by 300 kbpd. Agreement conditions will be fully implemented by January, 2017 and will remain in force for 6 months. Reacting on that the oil prices have performed significant rally rising on up to 9% and triggering huge risk hunger across the market.


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Friday, December 2nd

The GBP/USD pair remains in positive mood so far, extending its Thursday’s advance into early Europe. Yesterday the pound rose for approximately two cents against its American counterpart inspired by statement of Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union D.Davis that he will consider EU budget payments if required to keep access to EU markets. The statement of UK Brexit minister revived hopes of a soft Brexit and forced the pound to refresh its two-months highs near 1.2700 level. Today most likely the pair will stay under bullish control amid broad US dollar’s correction after positive data witnessed yesterday. However, later in NA session NFP will grab most of traders’ attention providing the pair with strong short-term impetus.

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Monday, December 5th

Yesterday Italian PM M.Renzi failed on his attempt to hold a constitutional reform, without meeting any support from Italian residents at the recent national referendum, that lead to significant moves across the FX market. The politician admitted his defeat and announced decision to resign after the final results were published. Moreover, M.Renzi noted that it was clear win of “No” voters and he will take full responsibility for the defeat. Also PM was surprised by a high level of turnout during referendum. Many of experts have already compared Italian referendum with Brexit.

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