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Monday, February 26th

The EUR/USD pair caught fresh pips in Asia, following broad market trend, caused by retreat of the US dollar against its main rivals. However, the pair still remains weighed down, following meeting minutes of both CBs, which triggered fresh speculations regarding divergence between monetary policies of the Fed and ECB. Talks about widening divergence have negatively affected the pair, as Fed’s protocols showed the need of tightening monetary policy, which was especially relevant in light of recent positive US inflation data, while the ECB didn’t provide markets with any surprise. Now all investors’ attention shifts toward speeches of the heads of the CBs – Mr.Draghi and Mr.Powell, which both will take place in the first half of this week and will be able to heat up or cool off recent market’s talks regarding widening divergence between two monetary policies.

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Tuesday, February 27th

The EUR/USD pair remains positive this Tuesday, following yesterday’s speech of the ECB President M.Draghi at the European Parliament. As usual, Mr.Draghi took a cautious stance without providing any new comments on massive quantitative easing program, as well as remaining measured in the comments about inflation growth. However, the overall assessment of the ECB President of the Eurozone economic growth was positive, while stressing that the euro area economy is expanding robustly and growth is stronger than previously expected. Looking ahead, today the new Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to the House Committee will take center stage and will be able to set up pair’s further short-term trajectory.

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Wednesday, February 28th

The EUR/USD pair follows broad market trend this Wednesday, moving closer to the level of 1.2200. Recent retreat of the pair could be explained by surprisingly hawkish rhetoric of the new Fed Chair J.Powell in Congress. Yesterday Mr.Powell gave an upbeat assessment of the economy and positive outlook for inflation, saying that he expects further gradual monetary policy tightening, with the first interest rate increase in March FOMC meeting. Adding to this, Mr.Powell noted that his personal outlook for the economy had strengthened since December. So, both CBs’ speakers have delivered their messages, and we can say that Mr.Powell sounded a lot more hawkish comparing to cautious tone of Mr.Draghi, which makes the divergence between the Fed and ECB come back to the fore, thus giving extra support to the US dollar. On the data front, today we have pretty busy session, as both economies have prepared important data releases for today, while recent economic events will also continue to influence the pair.

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Thursday, March 1st

The EUR/USD pair follows broad market trend this Thursday, mostly caused by bullish sentiments around the US dollar, having refreshed 6-week lows below the level of 1.22. Recent upsurge of the US dollar is attributed to continuing speculations regarding more aggressive Fed monetary policy tightening path, which was sparked by hawkish message from Fed Chief Powell regarding health of the US economy on Tuesday. Seems that markets have reconsidered potential measures of Fed monetary policy tightening and now investors are pricing-in four rate hikes, which could be implemented this year. Looking ahead, today investors will look forward for Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee for more details regarding further Fed actions, which is the main market-moving event of this Thursday.

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Tuesday, March 6th

The EUR/USD pair failed to extend its positive trend after three days at a profit. The main reason of recent bearish dynamics of the pair remains easing tension around a possible trade war following US President D.Trump’s talks regarding import tariffs on steel and aluminum, but common sense is expected to prevail, allowing the US dollar to recover positions against its major competitors. Talking about the euro area, as the Italian parliamentary elections are over, investors are now awaiting for further developments from the political field of Italy, since no party won the majority. Today nothing relevant is scheduled in the data calendar, so widespread market trend will remain the only navigator for the pair this Tuesday.

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Wednesday, March 7th

The EUR/USD pair remains better bid this Wednesday, extending its bullish trend for the fifth consecutive session. The latest positive dynamics of the pair could be explained by concerns over global trade war. Recall, recently the US President D.Trump announced that the US would impose steep tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, which sparked wide speculations regarding potential trade war, thus negatively affecting the US dollar positions. And now, Donald Trump's chief economic adviser, Gary Cohn, announced his resignation, the reason for which were the recent Trump's tariff plans, since Mr.Cohn was a supporter of free-trade. However, it is expected that the pair won’t show any volatile moves during this session, as markets await for the ECB meeting, which will take place already tomorrow. Likely the ECB will leave its rate unchanged, however, any comments regarding further QE program will have notable impact on the common currency. But today the EU economic calendar will bring us only secondary data reports, while the US will release ADP nonfarm employment change, which is often considered as pre-NFP data.

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Friday, March 9th

The EUR/USD pair keeps its positions in the lower end of its weekly range today near the level of 1.2300 after yesterday’s drawdown, triggered by cautious tone of the ECB President M.Draghi. As it was widely expected, the ECB left its interest rate and QE program unchanged, however, having revised lower its inflation projection for 2019. Adding to this, during the ECB press conference Mr.Draghi showed confidence in the effectiveness of the current monetary policy, which remains highly accommodative. However, seems that the pair stalled its downside trend, as investors are awaiting for another important event – the release of the NFP report, which is scheduled for the NA session. But on the euro zone side, today the EU calendar will again remain silent, so the pair will continue trace broad market trend until the key event of this Friday.

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Monday, March 12th

The EUR/USD pair trades with a slight bullish bias this Monday on the back of recent mixed data from the US economy. Recall, on Friday the US released bloc of mixed data from the labor market, featuring auspicious NFP numbers and higher-then-expected unemployment rate. These results of the US economy failed to provide the dollar with any notable impetus, as they didn’t indicate any possible changes in further actions of the Fed monetary policy. However, EU bulls also fail to take control over the pair, as divergence between the ECB and Fed is still playing an important role in determining pair’s direction. On the data front, today both economic calendars will keep silence, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend, while investors are looking forward the US inflation data, which will be released on Tuesday.

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Tuesday, March 13th

The EUR/USD pair remains broadly offered this Tuesday on the back of attempts of the US dollar to regain control over the market. Seems that US bulls have finally found some support across the market after the disappointing US unemployment rate, which was released on Friday. However, further actions of the pair look limited, as investors refrain from placing aggressive bets ahead of the latest US consumer inflation figures, which will likely trigger volatile trades across the market, as they will be able to bring some hints on what to expect from the Fed this year. Also today, investors will pay attention secondary EU data reports, however, expected that the market won’t show any reaction on the EU data amid broad cautiousness ahead of the key event of this Tuesday.

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Thursday, March 15th

The EUR/USD pair struggles to find direction this Thursday, trading in a tight range of 1.2365-85. Yesterday, the euro came under renewed pressure, following speech of the ECB President M.Draghi, where the head of the regulator showed concerns over the subdued performance of inflation, while saying that exchange rate of the euro could negatively affect inflation prospects. On the other side, on Wednesday the US published retail sales report, which came below market expectations, thus having exerted pressure on the US dollar, which in turn limited pair’s downside rally. Moreover, concerns over the potential global trade war, triggered by recent US President’s metal tariffs, may hurt greenback positions, as now investors are awaiting for the response from China. In the day ahead, the EU economic calendar won’t bring us anything important, while the US will release Philly Fed index, however, all traders’ attention remains focused on the EU inflation data, which will be available already tomorrow.

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