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Friday, March 16th

The EUR/USD pair has finally recovered its positive tone, having bounced off its weekly lows, marked near the level of 1.2300. Seems that the US dollar has run out of stream, all amidst persistent concerns over a global trade war, sparked by recent US President D.Trump’s metal tariffs, thus allowing the pair to recover some pips this Friday. Moreover, Mr.Trump’s decision to fire H.R.McMaster as his national security adviser on Thursday also added some weakness to the US dollar. Today all traders’ eyes will remain glued to the EZ inflation report, while the US data will also be able to attract some attention during the NA session.

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Monday, March 19th

The EUR/USD pair follows broad market trend today, caused by the growth of the US dollar against its main competitors. According to investors’ expectations, the Fed is to increase its interest rate by 25 bps this Wednesday, which is the key market-moving theme today, thus forcing the pair to trade with a bearish bias at the start of this week. Moreover, taking into account upcoming events, divergence between the Fed and ECB also comes into play, as latest comments by ECB officials showed that the Bank would continue to maintain accommodative monetary policy, while EZ inflation growth pace continues to show disappointing results. Looking ahead, today the economic calendar won’t offer us anything noteworthy, so widespread market sentiment, caused by upbeat price dynamics of the US dollar, will continue to form pair’s further trajectory.

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Wednesday, March 21st

The EUR/USD pair corrects higher this Wednesday after yesterday’s drawdown, triggered by bullish tone of the US dollar and disappointing German Zew surveys. Today it is all about the Fed meeting. It is widely expected that the Fed will increase its interest rate by 0.25%, so investors are more interested in comments of the head of the regulator. The market could witness notable volatility if Mr.Powell revises rate dot plot to four for 2018. Also, markets will await for any changes in long-term forecast of the Bank and clarity regarding impact of trade war on the US economy. Besides the Fed interest decision, the US will also publish today the data from the housing market, however, it is expected that markets won’t pay any attention to it.

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Thursday, March 22nd

The EUR/USD pair follows broad market trend today, backed by retreat of the US dollar against its major rivals, while refreshing its weekly highs at 1.2388 spot. Broad sell off of the US dollar is mainly attributed to not enough hawkish outcome of the Fed meeting. As it was widely expected the regulator increased its interest rate by 25 bps up to the level of 1.75%, however, investors by that moment had already managed to fully price in this decision of the Fed, therefore the reaction on it was limited. Markets were expecting the revision of “dot plot”, which would imply an additional rate hike this year, however, it didn’t happen. Nevertheless, the regulator did the revision of its plans regarding the rate, indicating 3 rate hikes next year, instead of 2 previously planned, but the market payed little of the attention to these comments. In general, the outcome of the FOMC meeting appeared hawkish, where the regulator indicated confident growth of the inflation, however, noting that there is no evidence of the acceleration of its growth. On the data front, today the economic calendar won’t bring us anything noteworthy, so the pair will continue to follow widespread market sentiments during this session.

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Friday, March 23rd

The EUR/USD pair has reverted yesterday’s correction from its weekly highs and is now trading back above the level of 1.2300. One of the key driving factors for the pair remains ongoing weakness of the greenback, as markets are still digesting not enough hawkish outcome of the Fed meeting, where the regulator left its rate hike projection for this year unchanged that weighed the US currency across the market. Moreover, significant drawdown of the US dollar in the pair with the yen in wake of strong risk-off sentiment, triggered by escalation of a trade war between the US and China, also contributes to EUR/USD’s positive tone at the end of this week. Looking ahead, today the EZ data calendar won’t bring us anything noteworthy, so investors will focus their attention on the releases, prepared by the US economy. However, further developments around US-China trade war will also be able to influence pair’s direction.

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Tuesday, March 27th

The EUR/USD pair shows positive results for the third consecutive session, having tested its 5-week highs, located on the level of 1.2476. The main reason of pair’s positive trend could be called subdued dynamics of the US dollar, caused by ongoing concerns over a potential US-China trade war. However, it seems that tensions between the US and China eased somewhat, as both sides have begun talks on how to avoid trade conflict. On the other hand, it is expected that the pair will keep its positive tone today, as the euro benefits from persisting risk-off environment, which was additionally boosted by scandal, involving Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Today we will have another quiet trading session, as the economic calendar will remain silent, so the US dollar dynamics and risk sentiment will continue remain the key determinants for the pair this Tuesday.

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Thursday, March 29th

The EUR/USD pair tried to recover its positions during the Asian trading session after two days at a loss. The latest decline of the pair is mainly attributed to the growth of the US dollar against its major rivals on the back of easing fears of a trade war between the US and China, as sides agreed to discuss further trade terms to avoid further conflict. However, the pair met support on the level of 1.2300 in early Asia and recovered some part of its losses, as investors took some profits off the table, thus pausing greenback upside rally. In the meantime, markets remain in anticipation of the data release from the German labor market, which will be the last market-moving event for the pair ahead of Easter holiday-break.

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Tuesday, April 3rd

The EUR/USD pair follows broad market trend this Tuesday and corrected above the level of 1.2300 after yesterday’s drawdown to the level of 1.2282. The renewed retreat of the US dollar, which is explained by escalation of the conflict between the US and China, remains the main theme across the market, allowing the pair to recover its positions. Moreover, broad risk aversion is another positive factor, which supports the pair somewhat this Tuesday. Looking ahead, today the EU calendar will bring us slew of local PMI reports, while the US will offer investors several Fedspeaks, which expectedly won’t have significant effect on the pair, so widespread market trend will remain as the key driver for pair after Easter holiday.

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Wednesday, April 4th

The EUR/USD pair failed to extend its overnight recovery and dip to the region of 2-week lows, located near the level of 1.2250. The latest downside trend of the pair is mainly attributed to attempts of the US dollar to recover its positions after recent drawdown, caused by trade tensions between the US and China. However, today we will have a rather busy session ahead, so most likely the US dollar price dynamics will take a back seat. In the day ahead, the European economic calendar will offer markets preliminary inflation figures, while the US have prepared the ADP report and the ISM Non-manufacturing data, which will be able to form pair’s further trajectory this Wednesday.

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Thursday, April 5th

The EUR/USD pair remains offered this Thursday, having refreshed its 2-week lows at 1.2249 spot. The main reason of pair’s recent retreat could be called ongoing buying interest around the US dollar on the back of easing turmoil regarding trade conflict between the US and China. Moreover, the downside move of the pair was additionally underpinned by a swing in risk sentiment that weighed on the common currency this Thursday. On the data front, today both economies won’t bring us anything interesting, so markets will remain in anticipation of Friday's NFP risk event, but until then widespread trend, backed by the US dollar price dynamics and risk sentiment, will be the key navigator for the pair.

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