Forex majors analysis and opportunities

USD/CHF INTRADAY: UNDER PRESSURE.
Pivot 1.0175
Our Preference Short positions below 1.0175 with targets @ 1.0115 & 1.0075 in extension. Alternate Scenario Above 1.0175 look for further upside with 1.022 & 1.025 as targets.
Comments The RSI is mixed to bearish.
S1 1.0115
S2 1.0075
S3 1.004
R1 1.0175
R2 1.022
R3 1.025
 

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USD/JPY INTRADAY: UNDER PRESSURE.
Pivot 123.4
Our Preference Short positions below 123.4 with targets @ 122.6 & 122.35 in extension. Alternate Scenario Above 123.4 look for further upside with 123.75 & 124 as targets.
Comments As long as 123.4 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
S1 122.6
S2 122.35
S3 122.2
R1 123.4
R2 123.75
R3 124
 

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USD/CAD INTRADAY: KEY RESISTANCE AT 1.331.
Pivot 1.331
Our Preference Short positions below 1.331 with targets @ 1.325 & 1.3225 in extension. Alternate Scenario Above 1.331 look for further upside with 1.334 & 1.337 as targets.
Comments The RSI lacks upward momentum.
S1 1.325
S2 1.3225
S3 1.32
R1 1.331
R2 1.334
R3 1.337
 

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NZD/USD INTRADAY: THE UPSIDE PREVAILS.
Pivot 0.65
Our Preference Long positions above 0.65 with targets @ 0.6615 & 0.664 in extension. Alternate Scenario Below 0.65 look for further downside with 0.645 & 0.6425 as targets.
Comments The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.
S1 0.65
S2 0.645
S3 0.6425
R1 0.6615
R2 0.664
R3 0.666
 

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Global stocks slightly higher
Global stocks were slightly higher Friday as major indexes looked set to close out a week of gains.

The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.3% in early trade.

Shares in Asia also edged up. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.3%, led by the resources sector, and Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average was up 0.1%. China’s Shanghai Composite Index climbed 0.4%.

Wall Street ended a touch lower Thursday as health-care and energy shares declined.

Still, markets have broadly rallied this week after recovering from a brief initial shock sparked by the Paris terror attacks last Friday as investors perceived the events as unlikely to have inflicted major economic damage.

Stocks gained after the Federal Reserve’s October meeting minutes released late Wednesday showed officials appeared on track to raise interest rates from ultralow levels in December, reducing some uncertainty hanging over markets.

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart on Thursday reiterated that financial-market volatility has calmed enough for him to feel comfortable with lifting rates soon, while Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer also pointed to a potential rate rise in the “relatively near future.”

Meanwhile, minutes from the European Central Bank’s October meeting released Thursday pointed to the possibility of more easing in December. Stimulus measures from central banks have boosted equity markets in recent years.

“Both the ECB and the Fed minutes effectively confirmed what we already know, but they left key questions open,” said Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec. While investors are fairly certain the Fed will raise interest rates in December, how “gradual” further tightening will be remains unclear, he said.

Investors are expecting further stimulus from the ECB, but are uncertain what form that will take. ECB President Mario Draghi has left the door open to adjusting its bond-buying program and a further cut to its deposit rate, which is already in negative territory. A speech later Friday Mr. Draghi may offer further clues.

In currencies, the euro fell 0.4% against the dollar to $1.0675, while the dollar edged up against the yen to Yen122.9400.

In commodities, Brent crude oil was down 0.2% at $44.14 a barrel. Gold was up 0.2% at $1,079.80 a troy ounce.
 
Draghi pats himself on the back
ECB President Mario Draghi said Friday that not only has the ECB’s accommodative policy, including its bond-purchase program, been a success, but it is the main driver of the economic recovery today. He said the economic recovery is on firmer footing than it was around one year ago. “Our measures have therefore clearly worked — in fact, they are probably the dominant force spurring the recovery that we see today,” said the ECB chief. “They have been instrumental in arresting and reversing the deflationary pressures that hit the euro area a year ago.” Markets expect the Mario machine to be at it again soon, with more QE and a lower deposit rate.
 
NZD RISES BUT GAINS MAY BE BRIEF
The New Zealand dollar was higher Friday, as it benefited from continuing weakness in the U.S. dollar after the Federal Reserve released meeting minutes earlier this week.
Trading in the New Zealand dollar was frustrating in some ways, according to Westpac currency strategist Sean Callow, as the U.S. dollar selloff appeared unwarranted.

There is nothing new in the idea that the Fed will raise interest rates in December and then proceed very slowly from there, Mr. Callow said.

“The U.S. dollar is down for no compelling reason,” he said. “It looks like the market is more focused on what will happen after December.”

Mr. Callow said short positions had built up around the New Zealand dollar earlier in the week on news of falling milk prices.

But short covering in recent days had given the New Zealand dollar a lift at the close of the week, he said.

At 0430 GMT, the New Zealand dollar was at US$0.6585, up from US$0.6483 late Thursday.

Despite the short-term gains, the recent downtrend in the New Zealand dollar remains in place, Commonwealth Bank said in a strategy note.

“The fundamental downtrend in the New Zealand dollar is intact,” it said, adding that weakness in commodity prices is likely to be the main drag on the currency.
 
Euro hit by Draghi’s Comment
Mario Draghi does it again. The ECB president used a key speech in Frankfurt to underline the case for more accommodative ECB policy. His comments suggested that he is pushing for an expansion of QE as well as a deposit rate cut, as he said that “the level of the deposit facility rate can also empower the transmission” of the ECB’s bond-buying program. This hit the euro, as his dovish comments have done in the past, with EUR/USD now trading at 1.0689, down 0.4%.
 
USD FLAT DUE TO LACK OF TRADING INCENTIVES
The U.S. dollar was nearly unchanged against the yen and the euro during Asia trade Friday, as investors refrained from taking strong positions amid a lack of fresh incentives.

The dollar was at 122.87 yen around 0450 GMT after briefly hitting as high as Y123.06 in morning trade. That compared with Y122.86 late Thursday in New York.

A bout of dollar buying by Japanese importers and institutional investors ahead of a three-day weekend in Japan caused the dollar to strengthen briefly earlier.

But the U.S. currency was largely tracking weakness since earlier this week, as investors adjusted their dollar-long positions. With a lack of fresh trading cues, many investors are factoring in the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise short-term rates in December, but remaining skeptical about the pace of monetary tightening thereafter.

The U.S. currency was slightly stronger against the euro, which declined to $1.0719 midday from $1.0733 late Thursday. The euro was at Y131.68 from Y131.87.

“Today’s trading is almost driven by position adjustment,” said Daisaku Ueno, chief foreign-exchange strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley.

Investors aren’t taking positions in a positive manner now, said Mr. Ueno, but they will reach a “crucial point” in December, with U.S. jobs data due Dec. 4 and the Federal Open Market Committee scheduled to meet Dec. 15-16, said Mr. Ueno.

Yukio Ishizuki, a senior foreign-exchange strategist at Daiwa Securities, said the U.S.-Japan two-year bond yield gap suggests there is room for upside.

“It would not be a surprise to see [the dollar] stretch” beyond its June 5 high of Y125.86 ahead of the FOMC meeting, said Mr. Ishizuki.

In other currency trade, the Australian dollar was higher against the yen after hitting a one-month high of Y88.53 overnight amid broad dollar selling. The Australian dollar was at Y88.48 midday from Y88.36 after its upside was capped at Y88.62.

The WSJ Dollar Index, a measure of the dollar against a basket of major currencies, was up 0.04% at 90.06.
 
USD/CHF INTRADAY: UNDER PRESSURE.
Pivot 1.0175
Our Preference Short positions below 1.0175 with targets @ 1.0115 & 1.0075 in extension.
Alternate Scenario Above 1.0175 look for further upside with 1.022 & 1.025 as targets.
Comments The RSI is badly directed.
S1 1.0115
S2 1.0075
S3 1.004
R1 1.0175
R2 1.022
R3 1.025
 

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