FOREX PRO WEEKLY August 24-28, 2015

[Sive Morten]

Fundamentals

Reuters reports dollar tumbled more than 1 percent against the euro and the yen on Friday as strikingly weak Chinese factory data fanned global growth worries and cooled betting that the Federal Reserve will raise U.S. interest rates next month.

Chinese manufacturing activity shrank at its fastest pace in 6-1/2 years in August, compounding investor concerns over slowing growth in the world's No. 2 economy and ignited sell-offs in equities and commodities.

Markets had been reckoning that a solid U.S. economy could prompt the Fed to raise rates for the first time in nearly 10 years as soon as September. However, soft Chinese economic data, sliding commodity prices and unconvincing U.S. inflation data have dulled expectations of a near-term U.S. rate hike.

Higher rates would raise borrowing costs for consumers and companies, possibly hurting spending and economic growth.

One indicator of Fed policy expectations, interest rates on overnight indexed swaps , suggested traders now see a 27 percent chance of a rate hike next month, down from 32 percent on Thursday and off from 48 percent a week earlier, according to data from inter-dealer money broker Tullett Prebon.

Fears of a China-led global economic slowdown drove Wall Street to its steepest one-day drop in nearly four years on Friday and left the Dow industrials more than 10 percent below a May record.

Wall Street's selloff this week suggested investors are growing nervous about paying high prices for stocks at a time of minimal earnings growth, tumbling energy prices and an expected rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve that could gradually usher the end of almost a decade of easy money.

Stocks have seen few large moves this year, staying in a narrow range throughout 2015, but volatility spiked this month once China surprisingly devalued its currency. Weak Chinese manufacturing data on Friday, and another drop in China's stock market, rattled investors' nerves and led to Friday's tumble.

While this month's selloff has been swift, many analysts feel the declines may be close to being exhausted, with a turnaround possibly starting as soon as next week.

"You're definitely witnessing a perfect storm in terms of China timing, people on vacation that affects liquidity, and you've got a lot of questions on the Fed and people are obviously focused on oil," said Andrew Frankel, co-president of Stuart Frankel & Co in New York.

"If you're buying a stock, you're dipping a toe in here."

The CBOE Volatility index, Wall Street's so-called fear gauge, touched its highest since October and notched its biggest-ever weekly percentage gain.

The S&P slumped 5.8 percent for the week, its biggest weekly decline since September 2011. The index lost more than $1 trillion of its value this week, according to S&P Dow Jones Indexes. Only 10 S&P 500 components advanced on Friday.

The selloff was broad, with all 10 major sectors in the red. Volume was heavy, with about 10.6 billion shares traded on U.S. exchanges, well above the 6.75 billion average this month, according to BATS Global Markets.


The euro, which is used as a 'funding' currency borrowed to buy riskier but higher-yielding emerging market currencies, easily topped $1.13 as investors reversed such trades and bought it back.

The euro was last trading against the dollar at $1.1358, up 1.05 percent. Earlier the euro hit a session high of $1.1375, last touched on June 22.

Data showing euro zone business growth unexpectedly accelerating this month gave the euro a brief boost, but most investors reckon China volatility and other external factors are more important drivers at the moment.

Against the yen, which is also used as a funding currency and is a more traditional safe haven, the dollar fell to its weakest in six weeks, down 1.10 percent on the day at 122.28 yen .

"Receding expectations for the Fed to raise rates at its coming meeting on Sept. 16-17 wield the potential to weaken the dollar further over the short run," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions in Washington. "However, a door seen as still ajar to a move next month should help limit losses in the dollar."

CFTC data shows now changes in sentiment as open interest has remained mostly the same. It puts some shadow on talks that investors unwinded there shorts on EUR. Currently, at least at 18th of August we do not see it.

The same is true as for speculative shorts as for longs. Yes, short positions were contracted two weeks ago, but last week they mostly remain the same. Well, may be on next week we will see shifts in sentiment as soon as will get COT data for last week:
Longs

Shorts

Technicals
Monthly
Despite sentiment CFTC data that shows no shifts yet, we just can’t miss or ignore some signs on technical charts and it seems that they could be early bells of coming changes. Monthly charts mostly brings more questions rather than answers.
Here, on monthly picture currently we have just one new issue – possible second close above 3x3 DMA. Yes, there is ~2 weeks till the end of August still, but right now EUR stands above 3x3 and if it will close above it by the end of the month – this one will be second close. This fact tells that we haven't got B&B "Sell" that probably would be more logical in current circumstances. As there is fewer and fewer time till the end of the month, perspectives that we will get DRPO "Buy" LAL pattern becomes greater. It will be LAL (look-alike) mostly because we do not have any signs of bears’ capitulation, we do not have two recognizable bottoms that typical for DRPO pattern. This is new information that forces us to review perspectives of upside action.

First of all despite the depth of this retracement, we still will treat it as bounce, if even EUR will reach 1.20-1.22 area. Market too long stands in downward action, especially during recent year and market has solid bearish momentum. Also take a look at butterfly pattern. Here we see definite acceleration right to 1.27 target point. Usually it leads market to next 1.618 target after retracement.

Now, let's talk on perspectives of upside action. We have two patterns of different kind here. First one is bullish engulfing that finally has started to work. It's target equals the length of it's bars and coincides with nearest 1.18 Fib resistance level.
Second is - DRPO. We do not have confidence that it will definitely work as it should to, because it doesn't have perfect shape, and mostly we call it as LAL. Still, DRPO usually leads market to 50% resistance of it's thrust. Additional support to this idea comes from EUR habit - it also likes 50% levels. Also 1.20-1.22 area includes former lows that could be re-tested.

That's being said, monthly chart leads us to following conclusions:
1. Market stands in upside retracement. Bearish trend is still intact and time is not yet to come to review long-term perspectives.
2. Most probable target of upside bounce is 1.18 Fib resistance - 3/8 level;
3. Possible target that has less chances to be reached is 1.22 area - 50% resistance.

Weekly
This picture brings very important information. Market stands just 50 pips below grabbers' target that is 1.1466 top. It should be taking out. Grabbers do not prevent market from further upside action, but after top will be exceeded we should find another patterns that will specify further targets. Grabbers' mission will be over as soon as market will create new top.
Around the top stands very strong resistance area. First is - this is combination of Fib level @1.1384 and weekly overbought. This deadly combination gives us weekly bearish "Stretch" pattern. Second - we have minor 0.618 AB-CD target. Third - here we have previously broken YPS1. So, we could get retracement down.
If we have so strong resistance, what chances on further upside continuation. Let's see, what we have on the other side. Actually not as much... EUR has closed above MPR1 and this tells that upside action is not just retracement within bear trend. It indicates shifts in sentiment (although we do not see it yet in CFTC data). Second - take a look at the action on last week. Market has shown strong rally and closed right at the top. We definitely see signs of thrust and acceleration.
That's being said, weekly chart does not cancel perspectives of further upside action, but tells that after market will hit 1.1470 area - retracement down is very probable. It means that hardly we will see 1.18 area on coming week.

Daily
Here market shows tremendous rally. EUR has passed through all pivot resistances as monthly as weekly, so I even do not plot 'em here. Market is not quite at overbought, but stands very close to it. At the same time EUR has no strong barriers right to the top, since it already has broken all major Fib levels.
Here, guys, we have detail that makes complex our analysis. And this detail is butterfly. This pattern suggests action to 1.16+ area, while above we've said that 1.1460 will be strong resistance and market should bounce down. How to combine this opposite issues? I see only two possibilities.

First one, if, say EUR will show just spike up to 1.16 after it will hit stops above 1.1460 and then will show fast return back. Second - if market will creep inside weekly overbought for awhile as it has happened in April rally (see weekly chart). Taking in consideration recent rally this scenario does not seem as impossible right now.

So, what we should do? Those of you who were lucky and got position at 1.1010 according to our analysis could keep it till market will reach our target around 1.1460 area. Just manage it - move stops etc...
For others, who do not have position have the choice. Conservative approach is to wait major bounce down on weekly chart. May be we even will trade it on short side, I do not know yet. But later we could use this bounce for long entry.
Aggressive tactic is trying to take scalp long positions on intraday charts with 1.1460 target as we've tried recently. It is not the fact that you will get lucky and get it(thus, we haven't got B&B patterns that we've counted on recently), but we could try.
For example, currently market has completed daily 1.618 AB-CD pattern. If market will turn to retracement, this will the chance again to get B&B:

4-hour
Speaking further on possible intraday retracement, on 4-hour chart EUR also has completed AB=CD pattern. CD leg is much faster than AB and this issue points on shy retracement. Thus, we again could try to catch B&B "Buy" here. From that standpoint 1.1245 level looks interesting. This is 3/8 Fib support and WPP of coming week. Also this is former top and "B" point of AB-CD pattern.

Conclusion:
In long term perspective we should treat current upside action as retracement by far. If even market will reach 1.20-1.22 area this will not break yet bearish tendency on monthly chart. Our first long-term target is 1.18 area and it's based on monthly bullish engulfing pattern. Next target is based on DRPO "Buy" LAL pattern and suggests moving to 1.22 area.
In short-term horizon we probably will work with upside action as market is approaching to 1.1460 top and target. Since there are 100 pips still till the target, we could try to catch B&B "Buy" pattern in the beginning of the week and will be monitor 1.1245 area.

The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.

 

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

Recent Reuters comments tell dollar rose more than 1 percent against the yen on Tuesday and pulled away from seven-month lows as investor risk aversion showed signs of easing, but the outlook remained clouded by worries about slowing Chinese growth.

Traders said a rise in U.S. stock index futures and a bounce in Tokyo equities from session lows helped spur dollar-buying against the yen. There was also talk of dollar-buying by Japanese players.

Such factors helped bolster the greenback, which had tumbled 4 percent against the yen over the two previous days as the recent turmoil in global financial markets whittled down bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September.

Whether investors will continue to buy back the dollar will hinge on the U.S. economy's outlook, said Masashi Murata, currency strategist for Brown Brothers Harriman in Tokyo.

"Heightened concerns about a global slowdown have triggered the recent moves...Since there's no change to the view that China is not doing well, the key becomes the U.S.," he said.

In a sign of investor concerns about China's economic health, Shanghai shares fell 4.3 percent after plunging more than 8 percent on Monday.

A near-term key for the dollar is whether it can rise back above the 200-day moving average, said Murata at Brown Brothers Harriman. That resistance now lies roughly around 120.70 yen.

Besides receding expectations for a Fed rate rise in September, the dollar has also come under pressure as market turmoil prompted the unwinding of carry trades funded in the low-yielding euro and yen.

In times of financial stress, the euro and yen are bought back as investors unwind positions in trades that entail higher risk but also higher potential return.

"There are still two-way flows, with demand for buying the dollar on dips. Some may see the beginnings of a Lehman crisis-like situation. I don't think sentiment is that bad, but the next few days could determine how it pans out," said Bart Wakabayashi, head of foreign exchange at State Street in Tokyo.

The Australian dollar rose 0.8 percent to $0.7215 , having pulled up from a six-year trough of $0.7044 plumbed on Monday.

So, our butterfly on EUR has been completed and now market turns to retracement. Recent action suggests that we should get another leg to 1.19 later, but today, guys, I would like to return back to discussion of AUD. I've never dropped to monitor AUD and NZD due setup was forming that we've discussed 3 weeks ago. Now this setup has been completed.
On monthly chart AUD has reached major 5/8 Fib support. We're not dare to suggest that we will get reversal. We will be absolutely happy if we will get minor bounce within bear trend. But this "minor" on monthly chart means 600-800 pips

On daily chart market also has completed reversal pattern that should trigger this retracement. This is 1.618 Butterfly "Buy"

As you can see this is also daily oversold and MPS1. If our suggestion is correct, market could form, say, reverse H&S pattern, that will provide achieving of minimum target around 0.77.
Here we hardly will get any W&R, since there is no context for this kind of behavior. Market will either move up or will fail and drop lower. Invalidation point stands below the lows.
So, I show you setup - and you now think, calculate and decide...

 

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

Recent Reuters news tell dollar edged up against the euro and yen on Wednesday, as China's policy easing steps halted a slide in the region's equity markets and prevented a further worsening in risk sentiment for now.

The U.S. currency was up 0.8 percent at 119.77 yen , albeit off the high of 120.40 scaled overnight. It managed to pull away from a seven-month low of 116.15, after China's central bank cut interest rates for the second time in two months late on Tuesday.

The greenback traded above 125 yen less than two weeks ago, before widespread risk aversion prompted investors to buy back the yen and euro - currencies used to fund investments into riskier assets.

The euro slipped 0.3 percent to $1.1477 , extending overnight losses that pushed it away from a seven-month peak of $1.1715.

Following a shaky start, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 3.6 percent after the People's Bank of China
(PBOC) cut the one-year benchmark bank lending rate by 25 basis points to 4.6 percent, and reduced reserve requirements (RRR) by 50 basis points to 18 percent for most big banks.

The steps, which many had expected the PBOC to roll out last weekend, came after an accelerated free fall in Chinese shares triggered a worldwide domino effect on equities and commodities.

Some analysts anticipate Beijing implementing further measures, and the prospect gave the dollar some support.

"Dollar moves are being dictated by equities. But there is some caution towards aggressively buying currencies like the yen amid hopes that China will come up with additional stock-supporting and easing measures, though this is not yet consensus," said Kyosuke Suzuki, director of forex at Societe Generale in Tokyo.

"Dollar/yen and euro/yen trades are attracting much attention from both speculators and real money investors. But given the wide price swings, it appears few are willing to trade cash and choose options instead," he said.

With the longer-term sustainability of China's latest equity supporting steps still in doubt, the euro and yen were expected to continue garnering fresh support should the tumult in risk assets resume.

"We have seen the yen, and particularly euro, gain on flight from risk which results in unwinding of carry trades. The euro has developed a reverse correlation with equities, particularly after the rout in China. Given its ample liquidity, it will likely continue to gain in times of 'risk off,'" said Junichi Ishikawa, market analyst at IG Securities in Tokyo.

The Australian dollar, used as a liquid China proxy, was up 0.1 percent at $0.7137 but still uncomfortably close to a 6-1/2-year low of $0.7044 struck on Monday.

The Chinese currency nudged up, with spot yuan changing hands at 6.4078 to the dollar from Tuesday's close of 6.4124. Despite the modest gains analysts saw the yuan continuing to weaken in the longer run.

"It is not the first time for China to roll out jumbo easing, however it is the first time for China to ease aggressively when the consensus view is shifting towards RMB (renminbi) depreciation," strategists at OCBC Bank wrote.

"Therefore, we see a good chance that RMB may weaken further in both onshore and offshore markets as a knee jerk reaction to China's jumbo easing."

So, currently markets are trying to get some relief from last shock. Thus, AUD still coiling around the bottom and nothing has happened yet, so, today we will take a look at EUR. In weekly research we've announced some mismatch butterfly target and existing of strong overbought area and said that market could, for example, show splash up and then return right back down. And this is happening right now. Within nearest couple trading sessions we probably should look for retracement.
On daily chart we have some kind of "Stretch" pattern - combination of overbought and Butterfly 1.27 target. Based on this picture, we would suggest that the most probable destination of retracement is 1.1250-1.1280 area. First is, this is typical Stretch pattern - middle area between the bands of OB/OS. Second, it coincides with 50% Fib support and EUR likes 50% level, and finally, this is 5/8 Fib support and lower border of K-support area.

On 4-hour chart we have clear B&B "Buy" in progress that has not quite reached the target yet:

This let's us to suggest possible scenario for session. Don't treat it as "must done", it just scenario that combines both expectations as on daily chart as on 4-hour. So, we could get something of that sort:

 

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

Reuters reports today yen nursed losses against the dollar on Thursday as gains in Chinese equities helped underpin risk sentiment for now and dampened demand for the safe haven Japanese currency.

Comments from an influential Federal Reserve official on Wednesday downplaying prospects of a September interest rate hike helped improve market sentiment. In the currency market, investors reacted by unwinding recent moves that lifted both the yen and the euro.

A recent rise in risk aversion had triggered short-covering in the yen and the euro, which are popular funding currencies for carry trades. Such trades involve selling low-yielding currencies to fund investment in higher-yielding currencies and assets.

Such demand for the yen and the euro showed signs of ebbing, however, helped by a bounce in global equities after their steep recent selloff.

Asian equities rose and Shanghai stocks edged up 1.6 percent <.SSEC> after Wall Street posted its biggest one-day gain in four years on Wednesday.

"The yen, euro and Swiss franc are funding currencies...and so when things calm down, dollar/yen can rise and the euro can slip against the dollar," said Satoshi Okagawa, senior global markets analyst for Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp in Singapore.

The euro rose 0.3 percent to $1.1353 , still nursing heavy losses from Wednesday, when it slid around 1.7 percent and pulled away from a seven-month high of $1.1715 set early in the week.

New York Fed President William Dudley said on Wednesday an interest rate hike next month seemed less appropriate given the threat posed to the U.S. economy by recent market turmoil.

Traders said Dudley's relatively dovish tones, combined with upbeat data showing a big increase in U.S. business investment plans have further helped soothe market nerves.

A near-term focal point for investors is an annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, attended by many of the world's top central bankers.

On Saturday, Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer will take part in the "U.S. Inflation Developments" panel before the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole.

The market will be watching to see if the central bankers play down the recent market volatility as a headwind, analysts at DBS in Singapore said in a research note.

"They will probably agree that the problem today is not in the advanced economies but the emerging economies," the DBS analysts said.

"If so, the dollar index can regain some of its composure if the symposium succeeds in keeping expectations intact for a Fed hike later this year without more panic in the markets," they added.

So, guys. Now you're the real-time watchers of financial theatre. Just 2 weeks ago everybody was sure that US will rise rates and economy is growing. Today we hear opposite statements that rate hike now is hardly possible. And official comments have changed drastically. This in general agrees with our long-term view on perspective of global economy. Recall what we've said - Global economy is slowing, we have no inflation, thus, rate hike is not logical and probably will be isolated event.
Financial Drug injection in US stock market by three step QE program was over and perspective of rate hike has hit buble significantly put it at the hazard of blowing. So US right now stands at the edge of uncontrolled financial crisis. All legal measures to support growth already have been taken - pension funds, hedge funds, individuals were buying stocks. Then QE has supported neccesary demand to keep stocks grow. The one way how US could safe there market is to start QE 4. If they wil not do it - this could be financial armageddon even worse than in 2008.
Why I'm telling all this stuff? Mostly because it should help us to understand correctly what is going on currencies. Keep in mind DRPO "Sell" on DXY long-term chart that was reported by Cosmos yesterday...

Although recent drop on EUR looks a bit scaring and not good sign for bulls in short term, EUR has chances to go up again, if it will jump out from major 50% FIb support. We just need to be careful with taking long position and try to minimize risk. Here is how we will do this.
On daily chart EUR almost has hit our predefined support. Trend here is bullish and our major task will be to understand what chances that market will turn up again:

4-hour chart also tells that EUR should move a bit lower, to 1.1245 area, since there we have AB=CD target. As a result, we will get daily Agreement around major 50% FIb support. This is not bad setup for watchng bullish reversal patterns.

On hourly chart market is forming bearish dynamic pressure, since EUR does not support bullish trend shifting and probably another leg down yet to come. So do not know definitely, whether EUR will turn up or not. Besides, recent plunge looks not very pleasant. Thus, we need to apply such tools for entry that will minimize our potential loss. And here again we have to turn to DiNapoli "Minesweeper" entry tactic.

First, we need to wait when EUR will reach daily level and complete 4-hour AB-CD pattern
Then we need to get trend shifting to bullish on hourly chart.
And only after that we could try to take long position on minor retracement from upside action. Stop should be placed below the low that will be formed at the moment of upside reversal.
What benifits we will get in this case? First, we will get solid support on our back (Daily Agreement) and may be it will let us to move stop to breakeven, if market will move above our entry point.
Second - if still, EUR will continue move down, our loss will be minimal, since entry will be taken on minor retracement.
So, right now we do not see other ways of work here, except may be just do nothing until we will get some clear bullish signs...

 

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

Reuters reports
ollar held near one-week highs against a basket of major currencies early on Friday, having benefited from upbeat U.S. data and as investors continued to cut back on safe-havens such as the yen.

Commodity currencies including the Australian dollar managed to outperform their U.S. peer after a solid rebound in Chinese equities helped lift risk appetite generally.

Against the yen, the greenback bounced above 121.00 , pulling well away from Monday's low of 116.15. It last stood at 121.05. The yen showed a muted reaction to data showing Japan's inflation fell to zero percent , the lowest in two years.

The euro came close to $1.1200 , having been knocked off its lofty perch above $1.1700 and last stood at $1.1258.

Sterling extended its decline, after briefly dipping below $1.5400 for the first time in over a month on Thursday. It last stood at $1.5412 .

Lifting the spirits of dollar bulls, data showed the U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in the second quarter, an outcome that kept the chance of a U.S. interest rate hike this year on the table.

Analysts at Citi said all four components showed positive revisions: consumer spending, business investment, trade and government outlays.

"Today's GDP adds to the positive flow of domestically oriented U.S. data the Fed desires to see," they wrote in a note to clients.

Expectations for a September move, however, have dwindled after a few Fed officials sounded a bit more cautious, citing global market turmoil and slower Chinese growth.

"It would be rational to think that the Federal Reserve will avoid raising interest rates under such circumstances. But I got the impression that the Fed's communication is not clear," said Ayako Sera, senior market economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank.

The market will be keenly waiting for more comments on policy normalisation from Fed officials attending the Aug. 27-29 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.

The lighter market mood overnight uplifted commodity currencies, which have had a torrid time this week as swings in Chinese equities compounded fears of a slowdown in the world's second biggest economy.

The Australian dollar attempted to reclaim 72 U.S. cents , continuing to recover from a six-year trough of $0.7044 hit on Monday. It last fetched $0.7168.

It's New Zealand peer was close to 65 U.S. cents , off its six-year low of 60 cents.

The recent wild moves in global markets have shaken many investors.

"It'll be a while before we know where the permanent scars are, but in the meantime, it's a reminder to markets not to form overly strong views on such things as when the Fed might start lift-off, or where G3 currencies are headed," analysts at ANZ said in a report.

So EUR is ready for taking next steps by us. Actually on daily chart we see not only the fact that it has reached major 50% Fib support area, but also that bullish grabber is forming. If it really will be confirmed it might become the trigger of action to next 1.19 target.
Besides, yesterday we've said that plunge down looks a bit scaring and grabber could become the solution for those who can't make trade using "minesweeper" entry technic by some reasons. You may wait - if grabber will be confirmed, you could stick with it

4-hour chart shows that our AB=CD pattern and Agreement on daily chart has been completed:

Finally here is our work place for today - hourly chart. Let's go step by step through it.
1. Preliminary steps on daily and 4-hour charts have been completed. Market stands at support and Agreement. This is the final level that keeps daily trend bullish. And edge point where we could take long position.
2. We need to wait when hourly trend will shift bullish - done
3. We need to take long position at first retracement - done. But we've missed this point since it was in the night. That's why here we will try to apply DiNapoli "Minesweeper B" technic. It is equal to "A" one, but with the one difference - you should enter not at first Fib level, but at first K-support area. I've drawn it on the chart, but keep in mind that it will follow the market as soon as market will move higher and higher. You need update it when top will be formed to get correct numbers. Our invalidation point stands under recent lows. But here could be different oportunities. You can place stop, say, below major 5/8 support, and then move below K-support as soon as market will start to jump out from it.

So evening is promised to be interesting....

 

[ochills]

Fantastic Analysis as usual Commander in pips,

Pls Commander kindly comment on GBP/USD on weekly chart there is consecutive bullish stop grabber with target @ 1.5929, Potential big & Small AB-CD forming. On daily there is butterfly sell with target @1.6290 this occur in one of the weekly AB-CD region. And I tried to redraw the wedge you talked about in the past GBP analysis since I thought it worthy of monitoring and is still acceptable as wedge. Please Commander what is your view.

Thanks as usual for your prompt response.

 

[ochills]

Crazy Price action on major currencies I love Most. I will sit on the fence till I considered the price whirlwind is over or advantageous to enter.

 

[cosmos]

Sive, DXY (USD price index) looks to be headed for a confirmed DRPO Sell on the monthly target. See image attached. 3x3 MA is in red.

 

[xrashex]

It's so funny.few months back Sive said usdcad could reach 1.3200 when it was around 1.2200.he mentioned that there is no solid answer to how it would reach...and yet here we are it reached..few weeks back Sive mentioned eur usd could go to 1.18 when it was trading around 1.09.again he mentioned that no solid explanation on how that would happen with all the Greece thing going on and eur area problems..well here we are reached 1.17..all I can say is Heil commander in chief!!!!!!

 

[Dave Hanson]

Sive, back on August 12 you said that all the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD, NZ) were preparing to retrace upward on the high time frame charts and that retracement could last for weeks. You mentioned that major support for Aussie is at 7182 (approx 7200 area). Today Aussie went as low as 7033, then closed at 7150. Do you feel it is now at that major support level where one could go long? Loonie is also getting close to its major support.