FOREX PRO WEEKLY, July 17 - 22, 2017

[Sive Morten]

Today guys, we dedicate our analysis to JPY. It has interesting fundamental background, but also technical picture looks thrilling. Our former analysis of EUR, CAD and GBP needs no update, as we've specified long-term targets and markets are going to them. On GBP we've got perfect entry recently and upside action has started. Our expectations here is 1.3250 level initially. on CAD we have big bearish monthly AB-CD in progress.
But on JPY situation needs some clarity. If you remember for few weeks we were monitoring bearish signs and patterns and were waiting for entry point but we haven't got anything as US data has improved, some dollar bullish reports were released and it was seemed that all bearish scenarios are vanished. Current analysis shows that it is not quite so, especially in a light of recent poor CPI and Sales data. CPI and Sales numbers are changing slowly and rather durable compares to volatility of month-to-moth employment data. And they could indicate structural problems of US economy. Recent Yellen's speech also gives a hint on this subject. Reaction on US bond and equity markets has followed, dollar also has dropped. And it seems that our suggestion that no more rate hike will happen in 2017 has chances to become a reality.
JPY right now shows such combination of sentiment and technical patterns that looks really attractive, and promise big journey....

Fundamentals

(Reuters) - The dollar fell against a basket of major currencies on Friday, after weaker-than-forecast data on consumer prices and retail sales in June raised doubts about U.S. economic growth and whether the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates again in 2017.

U.S. consumer prices were unchanged in June and retail sales fell for a second straight month, pointing to tame inflation and soft domestic demand.

Economists had forecast the CPI edging up 0.1 percent last month. Its drop of 0.1 percent in May and the lack of a rebound in June could trouble Fed officials who have largely viewed the recent moderation in price pressures as transitory.

"The CPI data begs the question, at what point does transitory becomes something that is more sustained, in terms of the softness," said Richard Franulovich, senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp in New York.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major rivals, was down 0.6 percent to 95.152 after earlier falling to 95.132, its lowest since September 2016.

U.S. interest rates futures rose as traders pared their view the Federal Reserve would increase rates again in 2017.

"Moderating price pressures suggest the Fed may be less willing to lift U.S. borrowing costs for a third time this year," Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth FX in Washington, said in a note.

The U.S. dollar remained broadly on the back foot against major currencies.

Against the Japanese yen, the greenback was down 0.65 percent to 112.53 yen, after hitting a near two-week low of 112.28 yen.

"Dollar-yen has got a lot more downside and it could easily go to 110 yen before the summer is out, in fact the next few weeks, especially with U.S. yields heading lower," Franulovich said.

The higher yielding Aussie and New Zealand dollars jumped, with the Australian dollar hitting a near 15-month high as risk appetite was robust with global stock markets hitting record highs and after dovish comments from global policymakers.

The Aussie was 1.23 percent higher against the greenback at $0.7821.

The euro was up 0.62 percent against the greenback to $1.1466 and sterling was 1.18 percent higher at $1.3088, after hitting $1.3093, its highest since September, 2016.

Chart of the Week: UK real earnings lower now than in 2009
by Fathom Consulting

UK real wages have fallen behind productivity since the recession. The performance of productivity has been very poor, but at least it has been positive, while real wages are lower now than they were at the start of 2009. The gains from higher output have been returned to the owners of capital rather than to labour. That shortfall creates potential scope for real wages to recover – to run faster than productivity growth – for a period, without necessarily resulting in higher domestically generated inflation. Shareholders would suffer in that world, as the share of profits in GDP would fall. And firms might seek to pass on those higher labour costs to consumers in the form of higher prices as a result. But higher prices can only be sustained if the market will bear them, and the global economy that we now inhabit makes that harder than ever...

COT Report
CFTC data brings important information on yen. Now it stands extremely bearish (axis are reversed on the chart) and net speculative shorts stands near all time extremes. Historically reversal on JPY happens, when net position touches 111-117K contracts on short side. Now JPY stands at 112K and absolute value was 135K in 2014.
Last three weeks trades agressively open shorts and open interest inreases trhee weeks in a row as well as net speculative position value. This is understandable as technically major bearish USD/JPY patterns were destroyed and important trend line was broken. Fundamentally a lot of dollar supportive information and statistics were released, especially NFP data.
But last week poor data and Fed dovish comments could change situation. We already see it on the charts. This combination of sentiment oversold and technical patterns creates unique situation that we could try to use...

Technicals
Monthly
This chart has too large scale and doesn't clarify yet long-term perspective. In general, it seems that yen is forming huge H&S pattern here. Rally on second part of H&S confirms this idea, retracement to the bottom of the shoulder already has happened, but right now it is unclear, whether yen will rally right now, or will show some kind of AB-CD down.

Trend stands bullish, but price action forms flag consolidation. This pattern is rather wide and price could fluctuate there for months. Thus, we could get a lot of bearish setups to be completed inside it on lower time frames.

Conversely, flag is bullish continuation pattern and in far going perspective, yen could formed upward AB-CD, or even butterfly. To be honest, guys, I think that this sooner or later will happen. Because, if you will take a look at the chart of US T-notes - they shows long-term bearish reversal pattern. It means that yield is going to rise and this will make negative impact on yen price:

Thus, monthly chart doesn't bring a lot of clarity for short-term perspective, but in longer-term, despite what fluctuations will happen around, Yen has more chances to drop (USD/JPY to rise) in perspective of few years...

Weekly

Weekly time frame is a major one for our setup and actually shows the major backround of our analysis. To be honest, guys, I was a bit frustrated when market has started to show real bullish signs, breaking all bearish reversal patterns on intraday charts within two recent weeks. It has become clear that major weekly patterns will be vanished and this is just a question of time. Overall picture with weekly bearish grabber and daily butterfly was looking pretty nice and, in some degree, it was pitty to withdraw it from accounts.

But the most tricky moment has come right in time when grabber and butterfly were erased - new bearish pattern has been formed. I was near to miss it...Now, it looks really interesting, because it has real fundamental background. But let's go step by step...

Although trend still stands bullish here, we have some interesting moments. The major one is large "222" Sell pattern and some kind of "Dark cloud cover" or even "Engulfing" right at reversal point. Second - this reversal happens, right at MPR1 which suggests that bearish trend is still intact.

Invalidation point stands above 115.50 and it is rather close in relation to overall scale of the whole picture.

If this is indeed so, here we have major support around 106.50 Fib level and weekly oversold. Next target stands in relation to our former AB-CD pattern. As 100% AB=CD leg has been completed - price turned to upside retracement where it stands right now, but next, 1.618 target stands @ 104.30 area. It is rather far, so it's not very interesting right now.

Thus, as you can see, combination of this pattern with fundamental issues and sentiment oversold creates healthy background for JPY appreciation...

Daily

Now let's go futher. Daily chart is even more interesting...Well, may be 300-400 pips on weekly chart is not big distance, but still it is too big for us to dive in this trade right now. So, we need to find some decision that could help us to take position at more acceptable level and relatively safe...

So, daily chart provides this issue. As you can see we have perfect B&B "Buy" pattern right at daily K-support area. It has great chances to reach target. What does it mean? It means that we should get at least 5/8 backmove, approx. to 113.60-113.70 area.

At the same time, here we have another concern. Take a look that large AB-CD pattern has not been totally completed as it has completion point around 115.05 area. That's why, here we need to watch for upside continuation, as JPY could try to complete AB-CD target. May be some butterfly will be formed or some other bearish reversal pattern. But this is also advantage for us as we will get clear pattern for entry in weekly "222" setup...

That's being said, we will start our next week with B&B "Buy" trading. Our second step will be - watching how situation will develop, whether JPY will gravitate to AB-CD target completion. Theoretically it is very probable as upside momentum stands strong and a lot of traders do not understand yet, that yen probably stands in reversal point.

And last thing... take a look at huge triangle. Now market shows that upside breakout was a fake. Now just imagine what will happen, if price in result of B&B "Buy" will return back above trendline.. Right, a lot of traders will go long and they will be trapped around 115.05 AB=CD completion point. It means that collapse that could start from 115.05 area will be very strong.

Hourly

Hourly chart shows perfect H&S pattern that has become a background of reversal. Here will be very difficult estimate precise upside reversal point for daily B&B "Buy". Why? From the one side - daily K-support is very strong level that could stop current plunge and, in fact, we could get situation that DiNapoli calls as "Ooops!" - failure of classic pattern, if you have strong support just below neckline. This is our situation.

But from another side - we has strong nasty candle down, market already has passed through minor 0.618 AB-CD target and stands rather close to AB=CD point. 50-60 pips is not really big distance for daily chart and this will not lead to breakout of daily K-area. That's why, market could complete AB=CD before upside reversal. This will be even better for us, since we will get completed patterns.

This completion could take shape of butterfly, for example. May be some other pattern will be formed. So, just keep your eyes open here. And - do not hurry. Daily B&B will take few sessions to be completed, especially when market has strong bearish impulse. Wait for clear patterns here....

Conclusion:

Right now we definitely see B&B "Buy" setup on daily chart and will start with it. Then we have more than just single scenario and will adjust our trading plan as soon as we will get more information.

In long-term perspective, it could happen so, that JPY stands in reversal point. This should become clear within few weeks probably...

The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.

 

[Kleinerbroker]

Thank you very much for this interesting analisis . It will be exiting to follow this development throughout the next couple of months . Enjoy your weekend ! KB

 

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

(Reuters) - The U.S. dollar sank to a 10-month low against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday, hobbled by uncertainty over the pace of the Federal Reserve's policy tightening and worries that President Donald Trump will fail to deliver healthcare reforms.

The dollar's index against a basket of six major currencies sank to a 10-month low of 94.75. From its 14-year peak of 103.82 touched on Jan. 3, it has lost 8.4 percent.

Two more Republican Senators, Jerry Moran and Mike Lee, announced their opposition on Monday to a revised Republican healthcare bill, delivering a serious blow to the legislation.

"If the bills won't pass, there will be no money for tax cuts. The implementation of his fiscal policy will be difficult," said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo Branch Manager of State Street.

Friday's weak reading on U.S. inflation and retail sales also fanned speculation that the Fed may not have justification for another rate hike by the end of this year, despite policymakers' projection for such a move.

Money market instruments are now pricing in less than 50 percent chance of a rate increase during the rest of the year.

In contrast, central bank policymakers in the euro zone, the UK and Canada have recently signalled they could adjust their policies, with the Bank of Canada raising rates last week for the first time since 2010.

"A lot of countries are catching up with the U.S. in terms of tightening in monetary policy. So it is natural that the dollar is losing its advantage," said Yukio Ishizuki, senior currency strategist at Daiwa Securities.

The dollar's loss accelerated after the euro rose above a major big number of $1.15.

The common currency rose 0.4 percent to $1.1528, hitting its highest levels since May last year.

The European Central Bank is expected to keep its policy on hold at its rates review on Thursday while many investors expect it to signal a reduction of its stimulus in the following policy meeting in September.

The dollar fell 0.4 percent to 112.30 yen, having lost steam after hitting a near four month high of 114.495 a week ago.

The New Zealand dollar slipped as much as 0.8 percent to $0.7261 after data showed consumer price inflation was flat in the second quarter, below the 0.2 percent expected by analysts in a Reuters poll, and sharply lower from the 1.0 percent posted in the first quarter.

The latest data is likely to reinforce the central bank's view that it is in no rush to hike interest rates.

The kiwi last stood at $0.7315, helped by the U.S. dollar's broad decline.


The Australian dollar gained 1.0 percent to a two-year high of $0.7875 as commodity prices such as iron ore and copper surged following Monday's data showing robust economic growth in China.

China's economy expanded at a faster-than-expected 6.9 percent clip in the second quarter, setting the country on course to comfortably meet its 2017 growth target.

The Canadian dollar scaled a 14-month high of C$1.2627 on Monday before easing a tad on weak Canadian home sales data. It last stood at C$1.2657 per U.S. dollar.

Today we will take a look at JPY and EUR. On JPY we're still watching for our B&B "Buy" setup on daily chart. In weekend we still had concern on where B&B will start but not this concern mostly is cleared. As we've talked in weekly research - yen could try to complete AB=CD target of H&S pattern on houlry and B&B could start from just below 112 level. This has happened:

As JPY has not touched target yet, it means that upside action could start from minor bullish reversal pattern, such as butterfly "Buy" on 15-min chart. It could help price to achieve target, but also it could start upside reversal:

That's being said, our B&B "Buy" on daily has not failed and could start today. But - keep watching. Fast breakout through 111.85 area will mean that B&B has failed.

Now on EUR... Pattern that we have there mostly corresponds to idea of upside action JPY. This is 3-Drive "Sell" pattern on 4-hour chart. It looks perfect - harmonic swings and tight ratios. The only flaw is acceleartion right to top, but, still it could work:

As EUR stands in strong daily rally - I'm not sure that it will reach common target around 1.1380. Thus, if you will plan to trade it - choose nearest targets, such as Fib retracement levels, intraday Fib extensions etc...

 

[Venelin]

On USD/JPY 15 min. butterfly already failed, but looks like 15min. DRPO buy could work

 

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

(Reuters) - The dollar nursed losses on Wednesday after skidding to a 10-month low against a currency basket as Republican legislators' failure to pass a stalled healthcare bill raised fears for the rest of President Donald's Trump reform agenda.

Republican efforts to overhaul or repeal Obamacare collapsed in the U.S. Senate on Tuesday, rattling financial markets and casting doubt on the chances of getting Trump's economic plans, such as tax reform and stimulus, through a divided Congress.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, edged up 0.2 percent to 94.780 after falling as low as 94.476 on Tuesday, its lowest level since September 2016.

The euro inched 0.2 percent lower to $1.1534, after rising as high as $1.1583 on Tuesday, its highest since May 2016.

The European Central Bank will hold a policy meeting on Thursday, with participants seen likely to adjust their language as they edge the ECB towards normalising policy.

Such adjustments may include dropping a reference to the bank's readiness to increase the size or duration of its asset-purchase programme before announcing in the autumn how and when it will start winding down its bond-buying.

The ECB, keen to retain flexibility in case the outlook sours, is set to keep its asset purchases open-ended rather than setting a potentially distant date on which bond-buying will stop, three sources familiar with the discussion said.

ECB President Mario Draghi roiled markets last month when he opened the door to potential adjustments to the quantitative easing programme.

"For the ECB, the market has shifted its expectations somewhat in recent weeks, especially following Draghi's comments which were taken to be more hawkish," said Mitul Kotecha, head of Asia macro strategy for Barclays in Singapore.

"To this extent, there's a lot already priced in, in terms of both the euro and expectations of ECB policy," he said. "The attention is on whether that is sustained in terms of what Draghi was saying, or whether we'll see some reassessment."

Expectations that the Federal Reserve will be more cautious about raising interest rates also weighed on the greenback.

Economic data on Tuesday showed U.S. import prices falling for a second straight month in June as the cost of petroleum products declined further, suggesting inflation pressures could remain weak for a while.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen signalled caution in congressional testimony last week, with disappointing U.S. inflation and retail sales data on Friday adding to evidence that the central bank has reason to take its time in tightening.

"The failure of the healthcare bill added the newest pressure to the dollar, but it was already under pressure after Yellen's comments last week," said Mitsuo Imaizumi, Tokyo-based chief foreign exchange strategist for Daiwa Securities.

The Fed chief referred to "uncertainty," he said, a word that "makes markets nervous," and prompted them to pare their expectations of another interest rate hike this year, he said.

The dollar was flat against its Japanese counterpart at 112.065 yen, well below its nearly four-month high of 114.495 touched last week. It fell as low as 111.685 on Tuesday, its lowest since June 27.


The Bank of Japan will also conclude a policy meeting on Thursday. Policymakers are expected to raise their economic growth forecasts but cut their rosy inflation outlook, sources say, reinforcing expectations it will lag well behind major global central banks in dialling back its massive stimulus programme.

A majority of economists polled by Reuters expect the BOJ to delay again its projected timing for achieving the 2 percent inflation target.

The Australian dollar was up 0.2 percent to $0.7926 after surging to two-year highs on Tuesday as minutes of the last meeting of the country's central bank showed policymakers turned more upbeat on the economic outlook.

The dollar edged down 0.2 percent against the Mexican peso to 17.446 after credit ratings agency Standard & Poor's on Tuesday revised Mexico's sovereign credit outlook up to "stable" from "negative," and commended the government's efforts to rein in a surge in debt.

So, EUR 3-Drive pattern didn't work as market just continues move up. Even no reversal patterns were formed on intraday charts. On JPY - price is coiling around 112 level, but also no valuable patterns have been formed yet around.

Thus, today we will take a look at GBP. On daily chart our major target stands around 1.3250 area. Meantime right now Cable has reached minor 0.618 AB-CD extension and turned to some retracement, also due not good statistics that was released yesterday. Still market has good chances to continue upside action, probably sooner rather than later:

This retracement takes the shape of perfect DPRO "Sell" pattern on 4-hour chart. Usually target of DRPO is 50% of its thrust, which stands around 1.2970 area:

But this level could be achieved differently. For example, it could be butterfly "buy":

But if market will exceed 1.3060 top - butterfly will be vanished and price could form "222" Sell pattern instead. In this case downward action to 1.2970 will take a shape of AB-CD pattern (after "222" Sell will be formed).

Thus, it seems that 1.2970 is an important point as for bears, since this is target of intraday patterns, as for bulls as upside reversal could start from there, especially if butterfly will be formed...

 

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

(Reuters) - The euro held near a 14-month high against the dollar on Thursday as investors look to hints from the European Central Bank on tapering of its stimulus, while the yen barely budged after the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy on hold.

The ECB is expected to lay the groundwork for an autumn policy shift when it meets on Thursday, emphasizing improved growth while trying to temper expectations after previously setting off a mini-tantrum in financial markets.

ECB President Mario Draghi opened the door to policy tweaks in a speech in Sintra, Portugal, in late June, leading to expectations that the ECB is ready to announce cuts in its asset purchasing program.

The euro is now at $1.1515, backing off a tad from Tuesday's $1.1583, its highest level since May 2016 but still maintaining gains of 3.0 percent since Draghi's Sintra speech.

While most market players expect an announcement of tapering from the ECB's next meeting in September, a move this week is not completely ruled out.

Some market participants, though, said there was a chance the euro would hit suffer a setback given investors have already built up massive positions in the currency.

Data from U.S. financial watchdog published on Friday showed speculators last week held the largest net long position in Chicago euro/dollar futures in six years - calling attention to risks in such positions being unwound.

On the other hand, Chicago futures speculators at the same time had sold the yen believing that the Bank of Japan would stick to its loose monetary policy at Thursday's monetary meeting, with their net short position at two-year highs.

"This suggests speculators' core positions are euro-long, yen-short. There is a chance those positions will be wound back after the ECB if markets think the ECB was less hawkish than expected," said Makoto Noji, senior strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities.

The euro was flat on day at 129.10 yen, off the 17-month peak of 130.76 touched last week.

The dollar fetched 112.11 yen, up 0.1 percent from late U.S. levels after the Bank of Japan kept its policy on hold as expected.

Unlike some other major central banks looking to dial back many years of massive easing, the BOJ showed no inclination to adjust policy.

Yet the yen has been strengthening against the dollar in recent weeks, because of the dollar's broad weakness, hitting a three-week high of 111.555 to the dollar on Wednesday.

Soft U.S. inflation in recent months is raising speculation that the Federal Reserve may not have justification to raise interest rates one more time this year as Fed policymakers have suggested.

"In the short term, the dollar appears to be under pressure. But given low volatilities in financial markets and the soundness in the global economy, the downside in the dollar/yen will be limited," said Shusuke Yamada, chief Japan FX strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.


The dollar's index against a basket of six major currencies stood at 94.848, up 0.1 percent in Asia but still not far from a 10-month low of 94.476 touched on Tuesday.

The U.S. currency was also hurt by the disappointment that U.S. healthcare bills appear to be falling apart in Congress, undermining the prospects for President Donald Trump's mooted stimulus and infrastructure-building plans.

The Australian dollar slipped 0.2 percent to $0.7935, meeting a strong resistance at $0.80 after hitting a two-year high of $0.7992. Australia posted bullish employment data on Thursday.

So, we already have discussed setups on GBP and JPY and they are still valid - Cable is forming triangle pattern, thus, DRPO target still could be reached, while Yen is still coiling around 112 area keeping chances on upside bounce.

Today we will discuss another setup and it stands on AUD. Price actually looks rather strong and recently aussie has broken long-term resistance on weekly chart but right now it hits overbought at Fib resistance. This combination gives us DiNapoli bearish "Stretch" pattern:

On daily chart AUD has completed AB=CD pattern also at daily overbought. So, overall constructions creates not bad chances for minor retracement. As price looks really strong, it is better to focus on nearest targets. For example, minor 3/8 retracement till 0.7725 area. This is also previous tops and daily oversold:

Just to not jump in blindly - watch for bearish reversal patterns on intraday charts. on 4-hour chart we have bearish reversal candle:

While on 30-min chart it could be H&S or, later we could get "222" Sell that comes very often at reversal points. :

We do not have any yet, but they could be formed today...

 

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

(Reuters) - The dollar headed for weekly losses on Friday, wallowing at its lowest levels against the euro in nearly two years after what markets perceived as hawkish talk from European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi.

But the Australian dollar skidded against the greenback after contrastingly dovish comments from a Reserve Bank of Australia official.

The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against a basket of six major rivals, was flat on the day at 94.322, not far from its overnight low of 94.090, its deepest nadir since August 2016. It was down 0.9 percent for the week.

The euro caught its breath and steadied at $1.1626 after climbing as high as $1.1659 on Thursday, its loftiest level since August 2015.

Draghi said that no exact date had been set for discussing any changes to the ECB's ultra-easy monetary programme but did say policymakers would revisit the topic in the autumn.

His comments were perceived as "hawkish, even though the ECB didn't tip its hand as to when it will begin balance sheet normalisation and in fact left the door open to additional easing if needed," said Bill Northey, chief investment officer at U.S. Bank Private Client Group in Helena, Montana.

The dollar edged up 0.1 percent against the yen to 112.06, after touching an overnight low of 111.48, its lowest since June 27. It was on track to shed 0.4 percent for the week.

The euro crept 0.1 percent higher against its Japanese counterpart to 130.32 yen, within sight of last week's high of 130.76 yen, its highest since February. It was on track to gain 1 percent for the week.

The dollar's losses against the yen were mitigated by market expectations that the Bank of Japan will keep its massive stimulus programme in place far longer than other major central banks amid stubbornly weak inflation.

On Thursday, the BOJ kept monetary policy steady as expected and postponed the timeframe to achieve its ambitious inflation target for a sixth time, though it slightly raised its economic growth forecasts.

Concerns over low inflation will likely keep the Federal Reserve from raising U.S. rates at its policy meeting next week, analysts said.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen signalled caution in her congressional testimony last week, with disappointing U.S. inflation and retail sales data a week ago adding to evidence that the central bank has reason to take its time in tightening even as it has vowed to do so.

"When you look at dollar/yen, the Fed has explicitly said they're on a rate-hiking curve, and the BOJ has said this week that they still have a specific 2 percent inflation figure in mind, and they're going to hit it," said Bart Wakabayashi, branch manager for State Street Bank in Tokyo.

"So I would have expected the dollar to be even higher than where it is against the yen now, and this background is definitely limiting the dollar's losses," he said.

U.S. President Donald Trump's failure to garner enough support for his healthcare bills in the Senate this week also weighed on the dollar, as it raised fears about similar obstacles in passing his stimulus and tax reform agendas.


The Australian dollar plunged after a top central banker said on Friday that the Reserve Bank of Australia doesn't need to follow the leader when it comes to global monetary tightening.

"Just as the policy rate in Australia did not need to decline to the very low levels seen in other parts of the world, the fact that other central banks increase their policy rates does not automatically mean that the policy rate here needs to increase," RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle said in a speech in Adelaide.

The Aussie tumbled 0.9 percent to $0.7889 after falling as low as $0.7875 earlier.

The New Zealand dollar added 0.4 percent to $0.7423 after rising as high as $0.7429, its highest level since September 2016, after New Zealand Finance Minister Steven Joyce told Bloomberg in an interview that he was not worried about the strength of the local dollar.

Today, guys, we will run through all setups that we have shortly. First is EUR. EUR is coming to our major destination point - 1.1735 weekly Fib level and weekly OB area. Probably price will make W&R of prvious tops of 2016 in this area before major retracement will start. Till 1.1735 EUR has no real technical barriers:

On AUD our trade has started perfect. Thus, if you've got short position - now is time to move stop to breakeven and watch the movie. Our "222" Sell pattern was very nice:

On GBP.... It seems that cable could re-establish upside action somewhere around as it has done sufficient retracement to respect minor AB-CD target. Our major target on daily chart is 1.3250. There are multiple options exist how to take position. On daily chart you could wait for bullish grabber:

On 4-hour chart we see that price stands at K-support. tHis is another reason, why I'm looking north. DRPO "Sell" target has been hit and even exceeded slightly:

Thus, all eyes on hourly chart. Here a lot of options - wait for clear bullish reversal pattern, or, say wait for upside action above 1.3025 (to vanish possible "222" Sell) and then go long on some minor retracement. Or, - use Minesweeper "B" Dinapoli entry technique - as hourly trend is bullish - wait for AB-CD action up and then try to go long at some Fib level or K-support area...(Minesweeper "A" entry was @ 1.2957 Fib support, by the way...)

Finally - JPY. Here price is forming broanding bottom and direction will depend on breakout. But the fact that yen has not started B&B "Buy" from K-support area looks bearish. So, although we have beairsh view on JPY, but we really was needed this upside rally to sell into. It seems that we could not get it...

 

[Sive Morten]

So, guys, on AUD market has cloned our yesterday's trade - and we've got another "222" Sell.
In result, by today's close we could get 3-Drive "Buy" pattern. It means that final destination of our short position within few hours hardly exceed 0.7860 area:

 

[Sive Morten]

GBP still has formed "222" Sell, which is accompanied by 4-hour bearish stop grabber. It means that it is too early to go long and it is better to wait a bit more...