Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,702
Greetings everybody,
Once we've thought that its all clear around EUR - it brings surprises again. Recent rally that we saw yesterday doesn't have decisive meaning for our long-term scenario, but it could make impact on the pattern that now is forming on daily chart.
In general, for us there is no big deal wether market will turn up by triangle or butterfly, but it could be important for those who trade intraday or intends to take long position on possible action to 1.20-1.21 area.
Thus, I have some suspisions that reversal might be triggered by triangle. Take a look guys at the EUR lows of 2000 on monthly chart and you will see how triangle has triggered major reversal there after strong drop. The same kind of pattern is forming on daily chart.
Our butterfly technically is still possible but recent jump doesn't match it by sentiment. That's why I suspect that something different will be formed there:
While market stands inside consolidation we could get too many different scenarios. Beyond daily triangle and butterfly we could get 4H butterfly as I plot here or a kind of diamond pattern:
Thus, our conclusion as follows. While price stands inside triangle - you could trade and focus on minor setups. Something like we've traded yesterday - B&B's, DRPO on hourly chart, "222" intraday patterns etc.
Once triangle will be broken or clear pattern will be formed (our butterfly, for example) - we will get more information for longer-term positions.
Once we've thought that its all clear around EUR - it brings surprises again. Recent rally that we saw yesterday doesn't have decisive meaning for our long-term scenario, but it could make impact on the pattern that now is forming on daily chart.
In general, for us there is no big deal wether market will turn up by triangle or butterfly, but it could be important for those who trade intraday or intends to take long position on possible action to 1.20-1.21 area.
Thus, I have some suspisions that reversal might be triggered by triangle. Take a look guys at the EUR lows of 2000 on monthly chart and you will see how triangle has triggered major reversal there after strong drop. The same kind of pattern is forming on daily chart.
Our butterfly technically is still possible but recent jump doesn't match it by sentiment. That's why I suspect that something different will be formed there:
While market stands inside consolidation we could get too many different scenarios. Beyond daily triangle and butterfly we could get 4H butterfly as I plot here or a kind of diamond pattern:
Thus, our conclusion as follows. While price stands inside triangle - you could trade and focus on minor setups. Something like we've traded yesterday - B&B's, DRPO on hourly chart, "222" intraday patterns etc.
Once triangle will be broken or clear pattern will be formed (our butterfly, for example) - we will get more information for longer-term positions.
