Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,706
Fundamentals
Sterling pared losses against the U.S. dollar after plunging 10 percent to its weakest in 31 years on Friday following Britain's vote to leave the European Union, but still remained more than 7 percent lower on widespread market uncertainty.
Sterling was last down 7.37 percent against the dollar, at $1.3765, after touching its weakest since before the 1985 Plaza Accord of $1.3228. Traders said Bank of England chief Mark Carney's comments that the central bank stood ready to provide extra support helped sterling recover.
The euro also pared losses against the dollar after touching its lowest level against the greenback in three and a half months of $1.0914, but was still hobbling and last down 2.4 percent at $1.1112.
The euro is expected to struggle given worries about the impact of Brexit on the euro zone economy. Analysts expect months of economic and political turmoil which will dwarf the pressure on UK markets following sterling's "Black Wednesday" in 1992 when Britain was forced out of the pre-euro Exchange Rate Mechanism.
Analysts said uncertainty about how central banks would react to the vote, its impact on European economic growth, and whether it would catalyze more countries to exit the European Union cast a wave of uncertainty across markets.
"The bottom line is the initial directionality that we've seen on the back of the vote in our view can persist," said Shahab Jalinoos, global head of FX strategy at Credit Suisse in New York.
He said that Credit Suisse's European economists had slashed economic growth forecasts for the euro area to 1 percent from 2 percent by the end of 2017, and cut the UK's forecast to negative 1 percent on the view that the UK could face a recession following the vote.
The uncertainty boosted the dollar and the yen, which benefited from safety buying. While the dollar rose sharply against the euro and sterling, it was last down 3.5 percent against the yen at 102.38 yen after touching a more than two and a half year low of 99.11 yen.
Speculation that the Bank of Japan could also act limited the yen's advance, but the dollar was still on track for its biggest one-day drop against the yen in more than six years.
Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had instructed him to cooperate with the Bank of Japan and closely consult with Group of Seven partners in responding to market moves. Aso added that excess volatility in currency markets was undesirable and he would respond to market moves when necessary.
The dollar was last up 1.2 percent against the Swiss franc at 0.9696 franc after the Swiss National Bank became the first major central bank to intervene and drive down the value of its own currency.
"The uncertainty is still at a very high level," said Richard Scalone, co-head of foreign exchange at TJM Brokerage in Chicago. He said sterling could fall to $1.28 by year-end, while the euro could fall below parity with the dollar within that time frame.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was last up 1.96 percent at 95.358 after touching its highest level in more than three months of 96.703.
UK buys a pig in a poke
by Fathom Consulting
Market reactions
At the time of writing, the FTSE 100 is down by 5% and the FTSE 250 down by over 9%. FTSE 100 equities derive a higher portion of their revenues from abroad, softening the blow. Bourses across the developed world are down and there has been a flight to safe-haven assets including gilts, Bunds and Treasuries. Gilt and Treasury yields are down 20-30 basis points across the curve while Bund yields have moved into negative territory again.
GESAM simulations
Using GESAM, we have estimated the combined impact of a 30%-40% fall in the currency, alongside a 200 basis point increase in the risk premium on sterling assets, which in our view would produce a 20%-30% fall in equity prices.
Following yesterday’s vote, GDP growth is likely to slow at a more dramatic pace over the next two years than we had previously expected, as uncertainty undermines both investment and consumption. We expect investment to be flat or falling on average over the next two years, before gradually picking up again as the UK’s position in the world gradually becomes clearer. Brexit would also have consequences for EU countries, creating a negative feedback loop for the UK.
A sudden fall in sterling is likely to send inflation into letter-writing territory by mid-2017, possibly as high as 4% if sterling falls by 30-40% in effective terms. The MPC is almost certain to look through any overshoot, rather than raise rates in a weak demand environment, particularly when the current level of house prices is unsustainable at anything other than near-zero interest rates.
Market attention will now shift to the possibility of a further reduction in Bank Rate. In our view, a cut to either 25 basis points, or to zero, would be little more than a futile gesture, with few macro-economic consequences. But that does not mean we would rule it out.
Although there is a risk that Brexit could trigger a house price crash – we previously estimated that the housing market may be as much as 40% overvalued – this is not a likely outcome in our view unless the MPC decide to raise interest rates. Consequently, we view a slowdown to a more modest pace of house price inflation than we had forecast for the UK remaining a member of the EU.
UK was already slowing
We have argued for some time that without further stimulus the UK would begin to slow. The UK failed to fix its banking system in the wake of the financial crisis, having a detrimental impact on trend growth, and the Chancellor’s demand stimulus was already beginning to show signs of fading before the referendum was announced.
The problems which have tied the MPC’s hands with respect to interest rates – dangerously high household debt, a highly overvalued housing market and a record current account deficit – all remain in place.
COT Report
Today guys we will take a look at EUR. Not really because I like technical picture there - NZD and GBP picture are more interesting, but just because we haven't taken a look at it for a long time already and picture needs to be updated.
CFTC data shows that speculators hold bearish net position. Compares to last week, it has increased slightly while open interest mostly stands the same. It means that some traders have reversed their positions from longs to shorts. In general we also see that short position is growing since the begining of the summer, as well as open interest. This tendency was paused just for Brexit voting, as public opinion polls every time provided contradictive information and this has led to volatility even on COT numbers. Still, now we could describe current situation as moderately bearish by CFTC chart.
Technical
Monthly
Reversal candle that we've discussed last time has become even greater and has increased its reversal quality. As we have said previously - EUR right now shows many bearish signs, as mentioned reversal candle, inability to reach YPR1 etc.
Now short-term sentiment shows that US rate hike expectation has dropped, but not drastically and summer rate change is possible. Impact of previos poor NFP was mild and many analysts expect high NFP data on June.
Currently EUR stands at rather strong support area. This is lower border of downward channel and all-time 5/8 Fib support. Here EUR has formed Butterfly "buy" and it has reached first 1.27 extension here.
EUR is forming typical reversal candle in May. Price has moved above April top and tends to close below April's lows. It could not get extended continuation, but usually market shows downward continuation within next 1-3 candles. But we're on monthly chart guys...
Sometimes reversal candles lead to collapse, as it was on EUR around 1.40 area. Thrust down has started particularly by reversal candle in March 2014.
Also, market starts to show signs of bearish dynamic pressure. Although trend has turned bullish in summer of 2015 - EUR still can't abandon sideways consolidation and move above 1.15 area.
Finally EUR was not able to reach YPR1 and returned right back down to YPP. This is bearish sign. Following this logic next destination could be YPS1 right around parity and 1.618 butterfly target. This is just another destination point that we have here.
That's being said, appearing of reversal candle brings nothing good to bulls. Currently we can't precisely forecast the consequences of its appearing, but even minor results will bring 1-2 months of downward action inside current 1.04 -1.15 consolidation... Although potential bearish impact could be even stronger.
Finally we have another bearish sign that looks like bearish dynamic pressure. Take a look that although trend holds bullish - market shows inablitity to move up, even from strong support area. Next strong support stands precisely at parity and will become a culmination of downward action, since this level includes support line, YPS1 and butterfly 1.618 target. Brexit results hardly will bring prosperity to EU and probably will become another bearish driving factor for EUR.
That's being said, we treat long-term perspective for EUR as moderately bearish. Any rate hike from the Fed will accelearte dropping here.
Weekly
Here we first recall what we've said last time.
Trend has turned bearish on weekly chart. Market has dropped below MPS1. These moments give a hint that current move down could get further continuation. Despite multiple fluctuations in wide range - market keeps valid the shape of butterfly. It is especially interesting that during last upside action EUR has stopped slightly below the top of major butterfly swing. As well as 1.05 low was slightly higher that low of March 2015. This lets EUR to keep chances on this large butterfly that has the same targets around parity as monthly one by the way....
But let's get closer to shorter-term perspective. Careful analysis of the swings shows that EUR keeps almost equal all downward harmonic swings inside this consolidation. Sometimes they are slightly greater, sometimes slightly smaller, but this difference is mild and mostly they are equal. So, we've estimated that that EUR should move slightly lower to major 50% support around 1.1060 area.Now this has happened.
Here again we mostly support our previous view that EUR will move down further. This stubborn standing around 1.1050-1.11could be explained combination of daily levels and YPP. But on Brexit turmoil EUR has pierced it strongly and right now this level becomes weaker and we have reversal candle on monthly chart.
Take a look carefully at weekly chart - we have drop out from the top. Last time when this has happened EUR has doubled harmonic swing on a way down and reached 1.05 lows. As we have similar situation here - harmonic swing again could be doubled. In this case we again will appear around 1.05 lows.
But this is not the end guys. Right now we see relatively rare candlestick pattern that calls "3 black crows". This is bearish reversal pattern and very often becomes a sign for significant downward action. Thus, in perspective of 1-2 months we really could get downward continuation here, on EUR.
And finally in last 3-4 weeks we clearly see inability of market to turn up again. This behavior amazingly correpsonds to the same action when EUR has dropped down from 1.16 top. After first wave of drop - it also has tried to turn up by some retracement but later failed and dropped to 1.05. Here we see very similar behavior.
If this time we will get the same continuation as last time, i.e. double of harmonic siwng - then, we again should appear around 1.05 area... But second appearing of the price there could become a fatal and EUR easily will follow to butterfly target and parity destination.
Daily
Daily chart shed some more light on perspectives of price action in nearest future. As we've estimated on weekly chart - EUR has broken harmonic swing tendency to the downside. On daily chart it takes shape of steep AB=CD pattern that creates an Agreement with major 5/8 Fib level.
On Friday downward action was held by extreme oversold and strong support area and upside retracement has started.
As CD leg is very fast and steep - it suggests more action to the downside. Particularly speaking - to 1.618 target of this AB-CD after retracement will finish. If this will happen - then market definitely will reach previous lows. And as we've estimated above - significantly will increase chances to reach major target around parity.
Thus, overall situation around EUR stands bearish.
Hourly
So, upside retracement could take different shape, and become slightly higher or lower. Right now EUR already has reached it's favorite 50% resistance and it could happen that upside retracement will stop right here.
At the same time we have potential butterfly "Sell" pattern that should finish at next 1.23 major Fib level. Thus, somewhere between 50% and 61.8% Fib level and as butterfly will be completed - EUR could turn down. At least on Monday we will monitor for this setup.
Conclusion:
Support where market stands on monthly chart is very long-term and wide. Standing there could last for months or even years, and may be sometime upward action will happen there. But right now, EUR shows bearish signs for perspective of 1-2 months. It's really high probability exists that move down will continue at least to 1.05 area or even deeper.
In shorter -term perspective we expect minor retracement up on daily and intraday charts before move down will continue. On coming week we will watch for it's starting point.
The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
Sterling pared losses against the U.S. dollar after plunging 10 percent to its weakest in 31 years on Friday following Britain's vote to leave the European Union, but still remained more than 7 percent lower on widespread market uncertainty.
Sterling was last down 7.37 percent against the dollar, at $1.3765, after touching its weakest since before the 1985 Plaza Accord of $1.3228. Traders said Bank of England chief Mark Carney's comments that the central bank stood ready to provide extra support helped sterling recover.
The euro also pared losses against the dollar after touching its lowest level against the greenback in three and a half months of $1.0914, but was still hobbling and last down 2.4 percent at $1.1112.
The euro is expected to struggle given worries about the impact of Brexit on the euro zone economy. Analysts expect months of economic and political turmoil which will dwarf the pressure on UK markets following sterling's "Black Wednesday" in 1992 when Britain was forced out of the pre-euro Exchange Rate Mechanism.
Analysts said uncertainty about how central banks would react to the vote, its impact on European economic growth, and whether it would catalyze more countries to exit the European Union cast a wave of uncertainty across markets.
"The bottom line is the initial directionality that we've seen on the back of the vote in our view can persist," said Shahab Jalinoos, global head of FX strategy at Credit Suisse in New York.
He said that Credit Suisse's European economists had slashed economic growth forecasts for the euro area to 1 percent from 2 percent by the end of 2017, and cut the UK's forecast to negative 1 percent on the view that the UK could face a recession following the vote.
The uncertainty boosted the dollar and the yen, which benefited from safety buying. While the dollar rose sharply against the euro and sterling, it was last down 3.5 percent against the yen at 102.38 yen after touching a more than two and a half year low of 99.11 yen.
Speculation that the Bank of Japan could also act limited the yen's advance, but the dollar was still on track for its biggest one-day drop against the yen in more than six years.
Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had instructed him to cooperate with the Bank of Japan and closely consult with Group of Seven partners in responding to market moves. Aso added that excess volatility in currency markets was undesirable and he would respond to market moves when necessary.
The dollar was last up 1.2 percent against the Swiss franc at 0.9696 franc after the Swiss National Bank became the first major central bank to intervene and drive down the value of its own currency.
"The uncertainty is still at a very high level," said Richard Scalone, co-head of foreign exchange at TJM Brokerage in Chicago. He said sterling could fall to $1.28 by year-end, while the euro could fall below parity with the dollar within that time frame.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was last up 1.96 percent at 95.358 after touching its highest level in more than three months of 96.703.
UK buys a pig in a poke
by Fathom Consulting
Yesterday, the UK voted to leave the European Union despite betting odds suggesting a strong likelihood of a vote to remain. Following this, Prime Minister David Cameron announced his resignation, with a new Prime Minister to be in place by October’s Conservative Party Conference. Investors are now facing, at best, several years of uncertainty regarding the terms on which the UK conducts its business with the rest of the world.
Source: http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/1/792/1115/index.html
Source: http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/1/792/1115/index.html
Inevitably UK growth will be weaker, both this year and next, than it would have been had the country voted to remain. But in contrast to a number of other forecasters, outright recession is not our central case, largely because we expect to see a significant fall in sterling through the remainder of this year, providing a boost to net trade. If we are right about the currency, inflation will move above 3% and into letter-writing territory by the middle of next year, which the MPC will ‘look through’, just as it did between 2010 and 2012, when inflation hit 5.2%.
It is technically possible, though politically unlikely, that this may not cause the UK to leave the EU. Parliament may choose to disregard the result on the basis that a clear alternative was not chosen, or the vote could be used as a bargaining chip for further renegotiation with the EU. We look ahead to the likely impacts on both the macro-economy and financial markets assuming that the UK does indeed leave the EU.
Brexit wounds of uncertainty
Ultimately, the economic consequences of voting to leave the EU may be small – the independent body Open Europe estimates the long-run impact on the level of GDP to be between -2.2% and +1.6%, with an even narrower ‘politically realistic’ range.
But the short-term consequences are more clear cut. The UK’s future is one of heightened uncertainty. It is not yet clear how quickly the UK will leave the EU – it could be a matter of days if we renege on our treaty obligations, which we see as highly unlikely, or more plausibly it could be anywhere from two to ten years.
We have previously estimated that the risk premium attached to UK assets could increase by as much as 200 basis points if the UK voted to leave, mirroring what happened when it became clear that the UK was not going to join the euro. Additionally, we said that if markets were to decide that the current account ought to be brought swiftly back to balance then sterling would need to fall by 30%-40% in effective terms and that Brexit may be the trigger for this.
It is technically possible, though politically unlikely, that this may not cause the UK to leave the EU. Parliament may choose to disregard the result on the basis that a clear alternative was not chosen, or the vote could be used as a bargaining chip for further renegotiation with the EU. We look ahead to the likely impacts on both the macro-economy and financial markets assuming that the UK does indeed leave the EU.
Brexit wounds of uncertainty
Ultimately, the economic consequences of voting to leave the EU may be small – the independent body Open Europe estimates the long-run impact on the level of GDP to be between -2.2% and +1.6%, with an even narrower ‘politically realistic’ range.
But the short-term consequences are more clear cut. The UK’s future is one of heightened uncertainty. It is not yet clear how quickly the UK will leave the EU – it could be a matter of days if we renege on our treaty obligations, which we see as highly unlikely, or more plausibly it could be anywhere from two to ten years.
We have previously estimated that the risk premium attached to UK assets could increase by as much as 200 basis points if the UK voted to leave, mirroring what happened when it became clear that the UK was not going to join the euro. Additionally, we said that if markets were to decide that the current account ought to be brought swiftly back to balance then sterling would need to fall by 30%-40% in effective terms and that Brexit may be the trigger for this.
Market reactions
At the time of writing, the FTSE 100 is down by 5% and the FTSE 250 down by over 9%. FTSE 100 equities derive a higher portion of their revenues from abroad, softening the blow. Bourses across the developed world are down and there has been a flight to safe-haven assets including gilts, Bunds and Treasuries. Gilt and Treasury yields are down 20-30 basis points across the curve while Bund yields have moved into negative territory again.
GESAM simulations
Using GESAM, we have estimated the combined impact of a 30%-40% fall in the currency, alongside a 200 basis point increase in the risk premium on sterling assets, which in our view would produce a 20%-30% fall in equity prices.
Following yesterday’s vote, GDP growth is likely to slow at a more dramatic pace over the next two years than we had previously expected, as uncertainty undermines both investment and consumption. We expect investment to be flat or falling on average over the next two years, before gradually picking up again as the UK’s position in the world gradually becomes clearer. Brexit would also have consequences for EU countries, creating a negative feedback loop for the UK.
A sudden fall in sterling is likely to send inflation into letter-writing territory by mid-2017, possibly as high as 4% if sterling falls by 30-40% in effective terms. The MPC is almost certain to look through any overshoot, rather than raise rates in a weak demand environment, particularly when the current level of house prices is unsustainable at anything other than near-zero interest rates.
Market attention will now shift to the possibility of a further reduction in Bank Rate. In our view, a cut to either 25 basis points, or to zero, would be little more than a futile gesture, with few macro-economic consequences. But that does not mean we would rule it out.
Although there is a risk that Brexit could trigger a house price crash – we previously estimated that the housing market may be as much as 40% overvalued – this is not a likely outcome in our view unless the MPC decide to raise interest rates. Consequently, we view a slowdown to a more modest pace of house price inflation than we had forecast for the UK remaining a member of the EU.
UK was already slowing
We have argued for some time that without further stimulus the UK would begin to slow. The UK failed to fix its banking system in the wake of the financial crisis, having a detrimental impact on trend growth, and the Chancellor’s demand stimulus was already beginning to show signs of fading before the referendum was announced.
The problems which have tied the MPC’s hands with respect to interest rates – dangerously high household debt, a highly overvalued housing market and a record current account deficit – all remain in place.
COT Report
Today guys we will take a look at EUR. Not really because I like technical picture there - NZD and GBP picture are more interesting, but just because we haven't taken a look at it for a long time already and picture needs to be updated.
CFTC data shows that speculators hold bearish net position. Compares to last week, it has increased slightly while open interest mostly stands the same. It means that some traders have reversed their positions from longs to shorts. In general we also see that short position is growing since the begining of the summer, as well as open interest. This tendency was paused just for Brexit voting, as public opinion polls every time provided contradictive information and this has led to volatility even on COT numbers. Still, now we could describe current situation as moderately bearish by CFTC chart.
Technical
Monthly
Reversal candle that we've discussed last time has become even greater and has increased its reversal quality. As we have said previously - EUR right now shows many bearish signs, as mentioned reversal candle, inability to reach YPR1 etc.
Now short-term sentiment shows that US rate hike expectation has dropped, but not drastically and summer rate change is possible. Impact of previos poor NFP was mild and many analysts expect high NFP data on June.
Currently EUR stands at rather strong support area. This is lower border of downward channel and all-time 5/8 Fib support. Here EUR has formed Butterfly "buy" and it has reached first 1.27 extension here.
EUR is forming typical reversal candle in May. Price has moved above April top and tends to close below April's lows. It could not get extended continuation, but usually market shows downward continuation within next 1-3 candles. But we're on monthly chart guys...
Sometimes reversal candles lead to collapse, as it was on EUR around 1.40 area. Thrust down has started particularly by reversal candle in March 2014.
Also, market starts to show signs of bearish dynamic pressure. Although trend has turned bullish in summer of 2015 - EUR still can't abandon sideways consolidation and move above 1.15 area.
Finally EUR was not able to reach YPR1 and returned right back down to YPP. This is bearish sign. Following this logic next destination could be YPS1 right around parity and 1.618 butterfly target. This is just another destination point that we have here.
That's being said, appearing of reversal candle brings nothing good to bulls. Currently we can't precisely forecast the consequences of its appearing, but even minor results will bring 1-2 months of downward action inside current 1.04 -1.15 consolidation... Although potential bearish impact could be even stronger.
Finally we have another bearish sign that looks like bearish dynamic pressure. Take a look that although trend holds bullish - market shows inablitity to move up, even from strong support area. Next strong support stands precisely at parity and will become a culmination of downward action, since this level includes support line, YPS1 and butterfly 1.618 target. Brexit results hardly will bring prosperity to EU and probably will become another bearish driving factor for EUR.
That's being said, we treat long-term perspective for EUR as moderately bearish. Any rate hike from the Fed will accelearte dropping here.
Weekly
Here we first recall what we've said last time.
Trend has turned bearish on weekly chart. Market has dropped below MPS1. These moments give a hint that current move down could get further continuation. Despite multiple fluctuations in wide range - market keeps valid the shape of butterfly. It is especially interesting that during last upside action EUR has stopped slightly below the top of major butterfly swing. As well as 1.05 low was slightly higher that low of March 2015. This lets EUR to keep chances on this large butterfly that has the same targets around parity as monthly one by the way....
But let's get closer to shorter-term perspective. Careful analysis of the swings shows that EUR keeps almost equal all downward harmonic swings inside this consolidation. Sometimes they are slightly greater, sometimes slightly smaller, but this difference is mild and mostly they are equal. So, we've estimated that that EUR should move slightly lower to major 50% support around 1.1060 area.Now this has happened.
Here again we mostly support our previous view that EUR will move down further. This stubborn standing around 1.1050-1.11could be explained combination of daily levels and YPP. But on Brexit turmoil EUR has pierced it strongly and right now this level becomes weaker and we have reversal candle on monthly chart.
Take a look carefully at weekly chart - we have drop out from the top. Last time when this has happened EUR has doubled harmonic swing on a way down and reached 1.05 lows. As we have similar situation here - harmonic swing again could be doubled. In this case we again will appear around 1.05 lows.
But this is not the end guys. Right now we see relatively rare candlestick pattern that calls "3 black crows". This is bearish reversal pattern and very often becomes a sign for significant downward action. Thus, in perspective of 1-2 months we really could get downward continuation here, on EUR.
And finally in last 3-4 weeks we clearly see inability of market to turn up again. This behavior amazingly correpsonds to the same action when EUR has dropped down from 1.16 top. After first wave of drop - it also has tried to turn up by some retracement but later failed and dropped to 1.05. Here we see very similar behavior.
If this time we will get the same continuation as last time, i.e. double of harmonic siwng - then, we again should appear around 1.05 area... But second appearing of the price there could become a fatal and EUR easily will follow to butterfly target and parity destination.
Daily
Daily chart shed some more light on perspectives of price action in nearest future. As we've estimated on weekly chart - EUR has broken harmonic swing tendency to the downside. On daily chart it takes shape of steep AB=CD pattern that creates an Agreement with major 5/8 Fib level.
On Friday downward action was held by extreme oversold and strong support area and upside retracement has started.
As CD leg is very fast and steep - it suggests more action to the downside. Particularly speaking - to 1.618 target of this AB-CD after retracement will finish. If this will happen - then market definitely will reach previous lows. And as we've estimated above - significantly will increase chances to reach major target around parity.
Thus, overall situation around EUR stands bearish.
Hourly
So, upside retracement could take different shape, and become slightly higher or lower. Right now EUR already has reached it's favorite 50% resistance and it could happen that upside retracement will stop right here.
At the same time we have potential butterfly "Sell" pattern that should finish at next 1.23 major Fib level. Thus, somewhere between 50% and 61.8% Fib level and as butterfly will be completed - EUR could turn down. At least on Monday we will monitor for this setup.
Conclusion:
Support where market stands on monthly chart is very long-term and wide. Standing there could last for months or even years, and may be sometime upward action will happen there. But right now, EUR shows bearish signs for perspective of 1-2 months. It's really high probability exists that move down will continue at least to 1.05 area or even deeper.
In shorter -term perspective we expect minor retracement up on daily and intraday charts before move down will continue. On coming week we will watch for it's starting point.
The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.