Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

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Forex Analytics

Dollar strengthening against Yen
11 August 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The USD/JPY currency pair consolidated above the four-hour Tenkan and Kijun lines support, 124.60, yesterday. Today, the pair is showing positive movement, recovering into the previous-week resistance area - 125.00.

The overall situation looks welcoming for purchases. Indeed, the Tenkan and Kijun lines have kept the positive influence of the golden cross. The Ichimoku cloud has also retained its bullish character, despite the Senkou Span A and B lines lateral movement.

Technical levels: support – 124.60; resistance – 125.00.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 124.80; SL — 124.60; TP1 — 125.60; TP2 — 126.00.

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Dollar strengthening against Yen - Forex Analytics

 

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Forex Analytics

Aussie losing ground
11 August 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The AUD/USD currency pair has failed to keep in the positive area. During today's Asian session, the pair dropped sharply after the Chinese data release, losing by over a figure. At the moment, trades are carried out slightly above the 73rd figure support, under the Ichimoku cloud.

The main uptrend is obvious to change soon as well: the cloud has already started narrowing down. The Tenkan and Kijun lines have already canceled the golden cross action and are now set for further decrease.

In the near future, trades are likely to continue within consolidation, in close proximity to the cloud's lower border.

Technical levels: support – 0.7300; resistance – 0.7340.

Trade recommendations: out of market.

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Aussie losing ground - Forex Analytics

 

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Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for August 12

By Elizabeth Belugina



US dollar was supported on Tuesday by the decision of the People’s Bank of China to devalue the yuan. Chinese central bank has given a new boost to the global currency wars. The news is most negative for the commodity currencies – AUD, NZD, and CAD.

American currency should feel well after good NFP data, but as it has already strengthened a lot, there’s a risk that large short positions will get partially covered making USD lose some of its strength.

Comments from the Federal Reserve don’t bring much clarity about the central bank’s plans for September. In addition, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said on Monday the Fed is close to raising short-term interest rates, possibly as soon as September, noting the economy is “approaching an acceptable normal.” Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said the central bank won’t raise interest rates until inflation has returned to normal. On Wednesday FOMC member Dudley will speak at 12:30 GMT. Earlier Dudley used to cite various risks for the US economy. In the meantime, Unit labor costs rose by 0.5% vs. 0.0% expected. That’s a positive thing for American inflation and USD.

EUR/USD tested levels above 1.1050. Greek government said that it had reached an agreement with its international creditors on the terms of the third bailout program, although there are some details still to be resolved. Although the creditor nations didn’t confirm this, traders seem quite optimistic about the temporary resolution of the Greek crisis. As a result, euro may spike to 1.1100 and 1.1130/40. Support lies at 1.0990, 0.0950 and 1.0900.

GBP/USD is held by 1.5615. Above this level another leg higher towards 1.5700 is possible. The UK will release labor market data at 08:30 GMT on Wednesday. Still, according to the forecasts, the figures won’t be very exciting. On the downside the key levels are at 1.5500 and 1.5465.

USD/JPY is once again testing 125.00. For now, it looks like US currency doesn’t have enough drivers to fix above this point, so we expect further consolidation. Support is at 124.50, 124.00 and 123.65.

AUD/USD fell affected by the news from China. A close below 0.7315 will be bearish. On Wednesday watch Westpac consumer sentiment index at 00:30 GMT, Australian wage price index at 01:30 GMT and, most importantly, Chinese industrial production at 05:30 GMT.

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Forex trading plan for August 12 - Forex Analytics

 

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Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for August 12

Open positions:

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 124.10, TAKE PROFIT 125.86, STOP LOSS 124.678 (revised)

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9665, TAKE PROFIT 1.0010 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.9790

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0635, TAKE PROFIT 1.1002 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0749

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: Look to BUY at 1.0990/85

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5515, TAKE PROFIT 1.5701, STOP LOSS 1.5453

AUD/USD: Look to SELL

USD/CAD: Look to BUY dips

EUR/JPY: BUY at 137.81, TAKE PROFIT 139.17, STOP LOSS 137.32

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7122, TAKE PROFIT 0.6894, STOP LOSS 0.7181

EUR/CAD: Look to BUY

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.6550, TAKE PROFIT 0.6357, STOP LOSS 0.6645

GBP/JPY: BUY at 193.19, TAKE PROFIT 195.88, STOP LOSS 192.19

_________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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Danske Bank: trade signals for August 12 - Forex Analytics

 

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Forex Analytics

Pound trading inside cloud
12 August 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The harsh recovery of the British currency against the American recorded earlier this week has stalled. The GBP/USD currency pair rate stumbled against the four-hour Ichimoku cloud upper border resistance and trades are continued in the cloud area today. The bulls are yet taking advantage of the golden cross formed by the Tenkan and Kijun lines, but the major trend still remains bearish: the Ichimoku cloud is negative.

A break through the cloud is obvious to trigger a change of the major trend. However, if the bulls fail to force through the 56th figure, we will expect the rate to decline into the negative area.

Technical levels: support – 1.5560; resistance – 1.5600.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.5570; SL — 1.5550; TP1 — 1.5670; TP2 — 1.5700.

2. Sell — 1.5550; SL — 1.5570; TP1 — 1.5480; TP2 — 1.5390.

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Pound trading inside cloud - Forex Analytics

 

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Forex Analytics

Euro keeps strengthening
12 August 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

EURUSD consolidated above the Ichimoku cloud yesterday due to the growing positive sentiment in the market. Bouncing from the four-hour cloud upper border, the pair resumed growth and is again testing the powerful resistance slightly below the 11th figure this morning. The bulls are supported by the golden cross formed by the Tenkan and Kijun lines earlier this week, as well as by the positive cloud which changed its character during yesterday's session. At the same time, the Chinkou Span line is in the zone of overboughtness. Breaking through the 11th figure might turn out quite tough, consolidation at the current levels is possible.

Technical levels: support – 1.1050; resistance – 1.1100.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.1050; SL — 1.1030; TP1 — 1.1130; TP2 — 1.1180.

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Euro keeps strengthening - Forex Analytics

 

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Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for August 13

By Eizabeth Belugina

China’s devaluation of the yuan, which acted as the bullish factor for the greenback in the first two days of the week, is now creating doubts on whether the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates soon. In addition, the number of job openings in the United States came out lower than expected.

On Thursday the market’s attention will be focused on the release of the US retail sales figures (12:30 GMT). The economists expect a 0.5% growth in both the headline and core indicators in July after a decline in June. Any disappointment will increase pressure on American currency, while its growth in case of positive figures should be limited.

EUR/USD rose above 1.1150 and is moving to 1.1200. The main driver of the pair is the dollar’s weakness, so euro may spike up more before the US data releases. Resistance is at 1.1215 (July 10 high) and 1.1245 (June 30 high). Support is at 1.1100/1088 and 1.1035. On Thursday Greek Parliament will vote to decide if the measures in the third bailout program will be implemented.

GBP/USD sipped to 1.5530 before recovering to 1.5615. UK labor market data came out mixed: the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month declined (GBP positive), though earnings growth has slowed down more than expected (GBP negative). The unemployment rate remained at 5.6% where it rose in the previous month. There will be no more important news from Britain this week. Resistance is at 1.5640 and 1.5690/5700. Below 1.5615 the pound will slide to 1.5400/5380.

USD/JPY managed to close above 125.00 on Tuesday, but was then still rejected down to 124.20. Support is at 123.65 guarding the way to 123.00.

AUD/USD spiked down to 0.7215 before recovering to 0.7387. Initially Aussie was affected by the news that China has once again set official yuan rate significantly lower. Still, the possibility of Aussie’s advance isn’t high. The psychological resistance is at 0.7400 and then at 0.7440. Support is at 0.7260 and 0.7215/00.

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Forex trading plan for August 13 - Forex Analytics

 

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MARKET NEWS

Key currency options
13 August 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.1100 (EUR 706m), 1.1150 (131m), 1.1200 (655m), 1.1245/50 (587m);

GBP/USD: 1.5540 (GBP 140m), 1.5650 (129m);

USD/JPY: 124.00 (USD 521m), 124.25 (200m), 125.00 (1.9bln), 125.50 (350m);

USD/CAD: 1.3015 (USD 130m);

AUD/USD: 0.7200 (AUD 1.3bln), 0.7400 (619m), 0.7440 (118m);

NZD/USD: 0.6595 (NZD 139m);

EUR/JPY: 138.25 (EUR 101m);

EUR/GBP: 0.7100 (EUR 2,2bln) 0.7205 (680m).

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Key currency options - Forex Analytics

 

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Forex Analytics

GBP/CHF: buy targets - 1.5400 and 1.5500
13 August 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/CHF reversed from support zone
-Next buy targets - 1.5400 and 1.5500

GBP/CHF today reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 1.5200 (former major resistance level which reversed the pair sharply in the middle of April) and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous strong upward impulse wave from the end of earlier minor correction (iv). The upward reversal from this support zone continues the active impulse waves (v), (iii) and 3.

GBP/CHF is expected to rise further – in line with the strong uptrend that can be seen on the daily charts – toward the next buy targets at the resistance levels 1.5400 and 1.5500.

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GBP/CHF: buy targets - 1.5400 and 1.5500 - Forex Analytics

 

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Forex Analytics

AUD/CAD: sell targets - 0.9500 and 0.9450
13 August 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/CAD reached sell target 0.9600
-Next sell targets - 0.9500 and 0.9450

AUD/CAD continues to decline after recently breaking through the support level 0.9600, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level follows the earlier sharp downward reversal from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 0.9750 and 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous downward impulse 1 from January.

AUD/CAD is likely to fall further inside the active minor impulse wave 3 (which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from January) toward the next sell targets 0.9500 and 0.9450.

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AUD/CAD: sell targets - 0.9500 and 0.9450 - Forex Analytics