Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for August 18

Open positions:

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 124.30, TAKE PROFIT 125.86, STOP LOSS 123.75

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9750, TAKE PROFIT 0.9984, STOP LOSS 0.9639

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3055, TAKE PROFIT 1.3303, STOP LOSS 1.2938

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 138.20, TAKE PROFIT 140.03, STOP LOSS 137.32

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7122, TAKE PROFIT 0.6894, STOP LOSS 0.7181

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0635, TAKE PROFIT 1.1002 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0749

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 194.20, TAKE PROFIT 197.45, STOP LOSS 192.99

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.6600, TAKE PROFIT 0.6403, STOP LOSS 0.6655

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: Possibly BUY

AUD/USD: Possibly BUY

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

__________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6119

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for August 19

Kira Iukhtenko



Wednesday is going to be an important day for the US dollar. We will be watching the inflation data and the FOMC meeting minutes. The US currency could get fundamental support from the Chinese economic developments and the commodity rout extension.

GBP/USD has finally tested the levels above 1.5700 after the upbeat UK inflation releases. CPI added 0.1%, while the core CPI surged to 1.2% (5-months high). Price growth raised hopes for the BOE rate hike in the near future. Fix above 1.5700 would open the way to our next target of 1.5790.

There are no important releases to watch in the euro area until Friday. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is testing the 1.1050 support as we write (100-day MA). Fix below would trigger a move to 1.0820. Fed’s expectations will play the biggest part in the coming days.

RBA meeting minutes released on Tuesday showed the central bank is satisfied with the AUD depreciation. We see space for more downside in the coming sessions. China’s risks will influence the Aussie, so the pair AUD/USD targets 0.7315.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6128

 

[AliKhan]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for August 18

Open positions:

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 124.30, TAKE PROFIT 125.86, STOP LOSS 123.75

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9750, TAKE PROFIT 0.9984, STOP LOSS 0.9639

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3055, TAKE PROFIT 1.3303, STOP LOSS 1.2938

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 138.20, TAKE PROFIT 140.03, STOP LOSS 137.32

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7122, TAKE PROFIT 0.6894, STOP LOSS 0.7181

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0635, TAKE PROFIT 1.1002 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0749

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 194.20, TAKE PROFIT 197.45, STOP LOSS 192.99

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.6600, TAKE PROFIT 0.6403, STOP LOSS 0.6655

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: Possibly BUY

AUD/USD: Possibly BUY

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

__________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6119

In simple terms you are bearish on USD

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key currency options
19 August 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.1000 (EUR 611m), 1.1040 (346m), 1.1100 (271m), 1.1150 (154m)

GBP/USD: 1.5700 (GBP 135m)

USD/JPY: 124.00 (USD 528m), 124.50 (385m), 125.00 (334m), 126.00 (727m)

USD/CHF: 0.9800 (USD 480m)

USD/CAD: 1.3050 (USD 398m), 1.3100 (133m), 1.3150 (200m), 1.3185 (191m)

AUD/USD: 0.7295 (AUD 249m), 0.7360 (163m)

EUR/JPY: 136.75 (EUR 247m), 137.00 (153m), 137.50 (200m)

EUR/GBP: 0.6900 (EUR 1.2bln), 0.6975/80 (200m)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/3385

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Euro trading inside cloud
19 August 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

EURUSD made its way into the four-hour cloud area yesterday, after the bulls failed to break through the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen lines resistance. The support formed by the cloud's lower border around 1.1010 was tested yesterday as well. So far, the level is retained by the bulls, however, the short-term trend is determined by the dead cross. Let us also note that at the current levels, the buyers' progress will be hindered by both the cloud's upper border and Tenkan-sen, in the 1.1070 area. And the 11th figure contains the Kijun-sen resistance. The bulls might attempt to move into the positive area today, but further trading is obvious to continue within the cloud.

Technical levels: support – 1.1000; resistance – 1.1070, 1.1100.

Trade recommendations: out of market.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6132

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Pound attempting to grow
19 August 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The GBP/USD currency pair found support at 1.5560 yesterday. It is here that a powerful level has been formed by the Ichimoku cloud upper border on the four-hour timeframe. Supported by the positive cloud, the bulls took it as a signal for purchases, making the pair finally break through the notorious 1.5650 resistance. The daily high was set at 1.5716 but then the market returned to the 1.5650 mark to test the Kijun-sen line support.

Obviously, the bullish sentiment might increase in the near future. The goal for purchases may be the 1.5780/90 mark.

Technical levels: support – 1.5650; resistance – 1.5730, 1.5780.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.5670; SL — 1.5650; TP1 — 1.5730; TP2 — 1.5780.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6133

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for August 20

US CPI data came in at 0.1% for headline and core, below the 0.2% estimates, but real average earnings rose from 1.8% to 2.2% helping US dollar recover after the initial sip. Traders are also positioning for the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday – the market is probably pricing in a more hawkish statement. Traders will be looking for the indication of how many central bank members lean towards September rate hike. Comments about the labor market and inflation will be also important. On Thursday there will be another bunch of American economic statistics: unemployment claims at 12:30 GMT and existing home sales and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (positive forecast) at 14:00 GMT.

EUR/USD continued its way below the 100-day MA at 1.1048. The German Bundestag has voted in favor of the third bailout for Greece. Greece is scheduled to repay 3.5 billion euro to the European Central Bank (ECB). Support is at 1.1015/1.1000 and 1.0950. Resistance is at 1.1050, 1.1090/1.1100 and 1.1130. The pair has topped last week, but the euro still has underlying strength, so the bearish bias may soften.

GBP/USD jumped on Tuesday, but failed to close above 1.5700 mark. Only a close above this point will bring the pair to 1.5785/1.5815. UK will release retail sales data at 08:30 GMT (positive forecast). Support is at 1.5590 (55-day MA).

USD/JPY made a spike down towards 124.00, but then recovered to 124.40. Resistance is at 124.50 (50% of the decline after Chinese yuan devaluation) and then at 124.70 and 124.90/125.00. The instability in China supports demand for the yen as a safe haven and limits the pair’s advance. The Bank of Japan meeting will take place on Thursday. In its recent comments, the regulator hinted that it was no planning to increase monetary stimulus as the yen has already weakened much. If the Bank of Japan sticks to this position, the advance of USD/JPY will remain limited. Long USD positions here seem risky.

AUD/USD is getting ready for a break of either 0.7315 or 0.7375. Support will likely come under pressure.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6143

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Aussie held above cloud
20 August 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The AUD/USD currency pair has been trying desperately to consolidate above the four-hour Ichimoku cloud in the recent days. The main support was at the 0.7320 level, which the bulls had been firmly holding since Tuesday.

Given the generally positive Ichimoku indicator, a break trhough the Tenkan and Kijun lines resistance in the 0.7360 area might inspire buyers that would choose the short-term level of 0.7450 as their goal. However, currently the Tenkan and Kijun lines are quite firmly keeping the dead cross relevant. Therefore, purchases will be possible only after the prices fix above the Kijun line.

Technical levels: support – 0.7330/40 resistance – 0.7380, 0.7400, 0.7415, 0.7440.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7350; SL — 0.7330; TP1 — 0.7400; TP2 — 0.7440.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6144

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Dollar weakened against Yen
20 August 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The USD/JPY currency pair rate plummeted into the negative area yesterday after all, below the four-hour Ichimoku cloud. The bulls were trying desperately to keep the prices in the cloud area, taking advantage of the lower border support around 124.10, but the bears turned out stronger. As a result, the pair has updated the three-week lows, having gone down to the 123.67 mark.

The bearish sentiment is obvious to prevail in the market in the near future since the Ichimoku cloud has changed for the negative and the Tenkan and Kijun lines have formed a dead cross. The Senkou Span B line retest migth make new sales possible.

Technical levels: support – 123.50; resistance – 124.00.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 124.00; SL — 124.20; TP1 — 123.50; TP2 — 123.10.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6145

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: forecast for August 24 - 30
21 August 2015

Kira Iukhtenko

Improved UK inflation data and a declining dollar supported the British pound over the past week. GBP/USD reached 1.5-month highs above 1.5700 (prior strong resistance). The market is now forming a long-legged candle on the weekly chart (bullish signal). It is important for us whether the pound will be able to fix above 1.5730 (trend line on the chart). Next bullish targets could be seen at 1.5800/10 and 1.5870 (50% Fibonacci from the 2014-2015 decline) in this case.

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

British government is gradually preparing for a rate hike, pushing the exchange rate higher. However, you should keep in mind that increased risk aversion and weak US figures could force the Fed to delay the first rate hike. Bank of England will likely follow its US counterpart, switching the hike expectations back into 2016. That’s why we don’t expect the bulls to stay in the sterling for too long.

Next week we'll be watching UK Q2 GDP (second estimate) and the news from the United States.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6161