Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast for August 24-30
21 August 2015

By Elizabeth Belugina

USD/JPY slid below 123.00. Japanese yen strengthened as a safe haven, because worse-than-expected economic figures from China and other events kept investors’ risk sentiment getting worse and worse.

The case for further easing by the Bank of Japan is building. Japanese economy contracted in Q2. GDP fell by an annualized 1.6%. Japan’s export growth slowed in July, while private sector demand is low.

On Friday, Japan will release inflation and retail sales figures. According to the Reuters poll, core consumer prices in Japan have slipped in July, the first fall in more than 2 years. Other data may to provide some positive news: according to the forecasts, household spending probably rose in July as hot weather spurred sales of summer clothing and air conditioners. Retail sales are expected to show a 1.1% gain in July on-year, up for the four straight month, though the pace of growth has moderated in the past few months.

There are some expectations of the Bank of Japan’s additional monetary stimulus in October. These expectations will provide some support for the pair. However, the central bank is very unlikely to make any new steps before the Federal Reserve’s meeting on September 17.

All in all, we expect USD/JPY to remain under pressure. Next support is in the 122.30/00 psychological area and at 121.50 (2015 uptrend line). On the upside resistance is at 123.60 and 124.50.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6167

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: forecast for August 24-30
21 August 2015

By Elizabeth Belugina

The past week was eventful for the euro area and especially for Greece. International creditors agreed to provide the nation with 86-billion euro bailout. Greece will be getting the money within the next 3 years. In return, Greek authorities will have to raise taxes and cut spending. Greece got the first 26-billion tranche on Thursday: 10 billion will be used to recapitalize the banks, while about 3 billion were repaid to the ECB.

In the near term, we will see plenty of political news from Greece. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras resigned because of a rebellion in his leftist Syriza party. Tsipras now aims to take part in the snap parliamentary elections reported on September 20 in order to strengthen his hold on power. For now, the market views the resignation of Tsipras as positive for the euro believing that it could facilitate the negotiations with the European authorities. For now, under the Greek constitution, the three largest parties will try to form a temporary government – this process may be rather difficult.

EUR/USD jumped towards 1.1300 as the less hawkish Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. The single currency is used as a refuge as capital is flying from emerging markets. Safe haven demand will keep the euro supported until there are better economic data coming from the US and China. As a result, we recommend being very cautious with short positions next week. Buying on the dips will be better as a short-term strategy.

Next week there will not be many important economic releases in the euro area, except German Ifo business climate on Tuesday. In addition, pay attention to the meeting of the global monetary authorities in Jackson Hole.

Resistance is at 1.1340 (200-day MA), 1.1380 and 1.1430/67. Support is located at 1.1215, 1.1130/00, 1.1075 and 1.1015.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6166

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

US dollar: forecast for August 24 - 30
21 August 2015

Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar index reached its lowest level since June 30 by the end of the week (95.40). Increased global uncertainty lowers expectations for a Fed’s rate hike on the September 17 meeting. Dovish Fed’s policy minutes and lower inflation data became another argument against a premature hike. Futures market is currently pricing in only 24% chance for a Fed’s hike in September.

Chart. USD Index Weekly

We believe the US currency has some room for a corrective decline, but the buyers are expected to return into the market ahead of the September 4 NFP. It will finally become clear that there is nothing more stable than the US economy these days.

US are scheduled to release a bag of important figures on the new week. Pay special attention to the Q2 GDP second estimate. There is a chance for the figure to be revised higher from the preliminary +2.3% reading. The famous Jackson Hole symposium starts on Thursday.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6164

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Aug 24

Open positions:

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 137.50, TAKE PROFIT 140.67 (revised), STOP LOSS 137.75 (revised)

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5635, TAKE PROFIT 1.5789, STOP LOSS 1.5595

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7350, TAKE PROFIT 0.7066, STOP LOSS 0.7328 (revised)

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3055, TAKE PROFIT 1.3337 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.2938

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: Look to BUY

USD/CHF: Look to SELL

USD/JPY: Look to SELL

EUR/GBP: Look to BUY

EUR/CHF: Look to BUY

EUR/CAD: Look to BUY

GBP/JPY: Look to SELL

NZD/USD: Look to SELL

__________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6179

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for August 25

Kira Iukhtenko



On Monday, all the stock markets collapsed starting from China. Shanghai Composite fell by 8.5% in the Asian trade, pulling all the indices lower. As a result, market appetite turned negative and the commodity rout extended. Investors rushed into the safe-haven assets, such as EUR, JPY, GBP and CHF. As for the metals, the only asset that survived for now is Gold. It stays in demand as a refuge.

We expect the current risk-off trend to continue until we see a significant rebound in China. Watch the Bank of China’s actions as at a certain point they will have to intervene to save the economy. We advise joining the trend and selling the commodity and risky assets until that happens. AUD and NZD are an attractive SELL these days.

EUR/USD is being bought as the carry trade operations became senseless in the current conditions. We expect the euro to stay supported as the crisis goes on. Buy the pair on dips to 1.1470. GBP/USD is also an attractive pair to go long after it closed above the 1.5700 resistance. Target 1.5800 and 1.5870 this week.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6189

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for August 25

Open positions:

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7215, TAKE PROFIT 0.6954, STOP LOSS 0.7295

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3055, TAKE PROFIT 1.3400 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.3058

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 138.05, TAKE PROFIT 135.56, STOP LOSS 139.05

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0815, TAKE PROFIT 1.1002, STOP LOSS 1.0745

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.5215, TAKE PROFIT 1.5586, STOP LOSS 1.5115

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: BUY at 1.1485, TAKE PROFIT 1.1808, STOP LOSS 1.1400

USD/JPY: SELL at 120.20, TAKE PROFIT 115.86, STOP LOSS 122.15

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5725, TAKE PROFIT 1.5930, STOP LOSS 1.5625

EUR/GBP: BUY at 0.7225, TAKE PROFIT 7483, STOP LOSS 0.7150

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.6540, TAKE PROFIT 0.6342, STOP LOSS 0.6635

GBP/JPY: Look to BUY

USD/CHF: Look to SELL

____________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6196

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/CAD: buy target - 1.3400
25 August 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-USD/CAD reached buy target 1.3200
-Next buy target - 1.3400

USD/CAD yesterday broke sharply above the resistance level 1.3200 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 1 at the start of August and which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of this resistance level is likely to accelerate the active minor impulse wave 3 – which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from June - which is itself a part of the primary impulse wave ③ from May.

USD/CAD is expected to rise further in the active impulse waves 3, (3) and ③ toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.3400 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3). Strong support remains at 1.3200.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6197

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for August 26

By Elizaveta Belugina

Chinese authorities finally addressed the economic and market turmoil by cutting the benchmark interest rate. The markets felt relief: stocks recovered and oil recovered, while the euro and the yen that strengthened as safe havens during the ‘Black Monday’ declined. US dollar was supported by the low-yielding currencies on the latest news from China as the move of the People’s Bank of China diminished fears that the Federal Reserve will have to delay interest rate hikes. Data released on Tuesday showed that US consumer confidence improved. US durable goods orders will be released at 12:30 GMT on Wednesday (forecast is negative).

EUR/USD spiked towards 1.1715 on Monday, but is now testing 1.1500 to the downside. The pair met resistance of the mildly sloping uptrend, which has been in place since March. In the 1.1700 area, one can also find 55-week MA and resistance of the 2014-2015 decline. Resistance is at 1.1625, 1.1700 and 1.1800. There are signs of a top, and the euro will likely return lower. Support is at 1.1430, 1.1380 and 1.1280. Fundamentally, we think that the ECB won’t like to see the euro so high, so it will be more difficult for the single currency to get much higher at this point.

GBP/USD rose to 1.5800 on Monday closing above 1.5700 since the end of June. Pound should be more cheering of the recovery in oil that the euro. Still, resistance lies at 1.5815 (May high) ahead of 1.5900/30 (July high). Support is at 1.5700 and 1.5630. UK will release data only of the minor importance, so the market’s focus will remain on the US and risk sentiment.

USD/JPY is consolidating below resistance at 120.50 and 121.50. The pair was supported this week by the weekly Ichimoku Cloud and the 55-week MA. However, the advance of the US dollar will likely be limited as the expectations of the Fed’s rate hike took a blow after the recent market’s turmoil. Support is at 119.40, 118.88 and 118.00.

AUD/USD recovered to 0.7200 after testing 0.7038 on Monday. On Wednesday morning, we will hear from the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens. Support is at 0.7170 and 0.7115. Resistance is at 0.7285, 0.7310 and 0.7335.

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for August 27

Kira Iukhtenko

Policy stimulus launched by the Bank of China on Tuesday failed to support the Shanghai Composite (-1.3% on Wednesday). However, the overall market sentiment improved with the Brent price pausing its losses.

US Dollar index is seen recovering for a second day in a row and won back the sharp “black Monday” losses. However, it still fails to close above the 95 points resistance. US releases strong durable goods data on Wednesday, but the market reaction was muted. The market is still cautious about buying the greenback.

On Thursday, don’t miss the US Q2 GDP second estimate (forecast - upbeat) and the unemployment claims figures. Jackson Hole symposium starts tomorrow – comments on the global economy will likely follow.

EUR/USD remains under bearish pressure. The pair will be driven by the risk sentiment these days. The pair pulled back from the 55-week MA and the weekly Ichimoku. Fix below 1.1500 will open the way for a rapid slide to 1.1200.

GBP/USD also gave up ground, falling below 1.5700. The pair is testing 38.2% Fibo at 1.5570 as we speak. Bearish target -1.5520 (trend support).

USD/JPY behaves a bit differently: it’s far from recovering to the Monday’s opening levels. Resistance lies at 120.00/30. Support – 118.50 and 116.00. According to the Japanese government, yen is far from being expensive these days.

Commodity currencies remain a sell. Tomorrow we’ll be watching Australia private capital expenditure (a decline is expected). Data could easily pull AUD/USD down below 0.7100.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6221

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: forecast for Aug 31-Sept 6

Kira Iukhtenko

GBP/USD surge above 1.5700 turned out to be a fake breakout – the pair lost more than 300 pips by the end of the week. A strong bearish candle is being formed on the weekly chart (SELL signal). The cable broke the trendline connecting the May-August lows to the downside.

Weekly close below 1.5450 will become a strong signals for the sellers. Next levels to watch are 1.5330 и 1.5170. They are expected to be reached in the coming days. Recovery above 1.5500 is needed to revive the buying demand.

Next week we’ll watch the UK August PMI indices. Monday is a bank holiday – volatility could increase on a thin market. Weak US data and a new wave of Asian market selloff is a risk to our bearish view, however.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6241