Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for September 8

By Elizabeth Belugina

Early on Tuesday China will release August trade balance data, and we’ll find out whether weaker yuan has managed to improve the nation's exports. There’s no specific time of the release, so beware of increased volatility during the Asian session. Another important release in the morning will be Australian NAB business confidence index due at 01:30 GMT. AUD/USD touched levels below 0.6900 on Monday. Support is at 0.6900, 0.6855 (April 2009 low) and 0.6800. Resistance is at 0.7000, 0.7065 and 0.7100.

US labor market data released on Friday keeps the door open for the Federal Reserve’s rate hike on September 17. Still, there are plenty of risks for American economy and market can only guess what the Fed decides. There are no important releases scheduled on Tuesday in Europe and the Unites States, so traders will continue analyzing monetary policy outlook for the Fed and the ECB. This should keep EUR/USD capped by 1.1270/1300. In the past session, the pair found some support in the 1.1090/1.1120 area. The euro’s ability to stay above this area will depend on figures from China: improvement in data may get the single currency down. Next support is at 1.1015/00.

GBP/USD found support in the 1.5170 zone and recovered towards 1.5280 without distinctive fundamental drivers. Daily сlose above 1.5272 will open the way to 1.5330/55 (200-day MA) area which should provide resistance. On the downside, support lies at 1.5164 (Friday low) and 1.5088 (May lows).

USD/JPY has resistance at 119.60 and 120.70. Below this last level, the pair will stay in short-term downtrend. On the downside, we focus on 118.60 and 118.30. Dynamics in the coming session will depend on the market’s risk sentiment and, consequently, Chinese statistics. In addition, watch the release of Japanese current account data early on Tuesday. The higher the surplus, the more negative it will be for USD/JPY.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6349

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for September 8

Open positions*:

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1175, TAKE PROFIT 1.1017, STOP LOSS 1.1252

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 121.15, TAKE PROFIT 118.26, STOP LOSS 120.80 (revised)

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9580, TAKE PROFIT 0.9799, STOP LOSS 0.9565

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7215, TAKE PROFIT 0.6771, STOP LOSS 0.7099

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3185, TAKE PROFIT 1.3384, STOP LOSS 1.3100

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG at 0.7300, TAKE PROFIT 0.7483, STOP LOSS 0.7240

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.4840, TAKE PROFIT 1.4387, STOP LOSS 1.5010

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT at 183.35, TAKE PROFIT 178.48, STOP LOSS 184.85

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.6405, TAKE PROFIT 0.6092, STOP LOSS 0.6420

Trade ideas:

EUR/JPY: SELL at 133.55, TAKE PROFIT 131.31, STOP LOSS 134.72

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.5329, TAKE PROFIT 1.5089, STOP LOSS 1.5449

EUR/CHF: BUY at 1.0820, TAKE PROFIT 1.1040, STOP LOSS 1.0709

___________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6355

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for September 9

By Elizaveta Belugina

EUR/USD spiked to 1.1229 on the disappointing Chinese imports data, but then fell to 1.1160. The euro wasn’t impressed by the upward revision of the euro area’s Q2 GDP growth from 0.3% to 0.4%. We stick to the view that the pair should be sold on the upside. The focus is on the support area of 1.1120 and 1.1090 ahead of 1.1015. Resistance is at 1.1265 (200-day MA).

GBP/USD rose to 1.5400 where it found some resistance. Pay attention to the UK manufacturing production and trade balance due at 08:30 GMT. Traders will be looking forwards to the Bank of England’s meeting on Thursday, the expectation will likely be negative. Further resistance is at 1.5425 (August 7 low) and 1.5500 (100-day MA). Support is at 1.5330, 1.5290 and 1.5250.

USD/JPY went up and tested levels above 120.00 as the market’s risk sentiment improved encouraged by gains in European stocks. The key resistance is located in the 120.70 area: the short-term bearish trend will prevail until USD/JPY breaks higher. Support is at 119.60 and 119.00.

AUD/USD corrected up to 0.6980. During the Asian session on Wednesday Australia will release Westpac consumer sentiment index and home loans indicator. In addition, pay attention to the speeches of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Lowe and Debelle. Resistance is at 0.7100 and 0.7180. Support is at 0.6950 and 0.6900.

USD/CAD slid from 1.3300 to 1.3200. The results of the Bank of Canada’s meeting will be announced at 14:00 GMT. The recent data from Canada were rather well. Still, the Bank of Canada may express concerns about the low oil prices. Buying on the dips to 0.7170/30 seems like a good idea, though there’s a bunch of resistance levels in the 1.3300/30 area.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6364

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Pound trading within cloud
9 September 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The GBP/USD currency pair rate has recovered significantly within the last two trading sessions. The pair found support in the 52nd figure area and then began to recover rapidly within the correctional movement. The short-term bullish sentiment of the market participants was supported by the Tenkan and Kijun lines yesterday that had formed a golden cross. It was immediately followed by a break through the four-hour Ichimoku cloud lower border resistance, which bounds us to speak about the pair's further consolidation within a fairly wide price range of 1.5300-1.5500. It obviously makes sense to wait for the prices to pull back to the Tenkan and Kijun lines in the near future and to be on the bulls' side up until the Ichimoku cloud upper border.

Technical levels: support – 1.5300; resistance1 – 1.5480.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.5300; SL — 1.5280; TP1 — 1.5400; TP2 — 1.5480.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6366

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/NZD: sell target - 1.7300
9 September 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/NZD reached buy target 1.7750
-Next sell target - 1.7300

EUR/NZD recently reversed down sharply after the price reached the resistance level 1.7750, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. After initially reversing down from this resistance level the pair made two unsuccessful attempts to break above 1.7750 – forming two consecutive Japanese candlestick reversal patterns Bearish Engulfing (as you can see below).

EUR/NZD is likely to fall further inside the active minor impulse wave 3 toward the next support level 1.7300 (which reversed the price with the daily Morning Star at the end of August).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6371

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/GBP: sell target - 0.7200
9 September 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/GBP falls inside intermediate impulse wave (3)
-Next sell target - 0.7200

EUR/GBP continues to fall after the price earlier reversed down strongly from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 0.7400 (which stopped the previous primary ABC correction ②), the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous downward impulse wave from last October. The downward reversal from this resistance zone completed the latest intermediate correction (2).

EUR/GBP is likely to fall further in the active impulse wave (3) toward the next sell target at the support level 0.7200 (former resistance level which reversed the previous wave (4) in July). Strong resistance remains at 0.7400.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6370

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for September 10

By Elizaveta Belugina

EUR/USD slid to 1.1130. Support is at 1.1125 and 1.1090. Decline below these levels will confirm a temporary top and open the way for a fall to 1.1015/00. Early on Thursday the pair’s dynamics will depend on the market’s risk sentiment as China will release inflation figures. US will publish unemployment claims at 12:30 GMT. Trading is expected to be volatile. The upside for the euro will likely be limited.

GBP/USD met resistance at 1.5400. The bears are trying to pull the pound below the 200-day MA at 1.5353. Britain released a bunch of dismal economic data on Wednesday: manufacturing production contracted in August, while trade deficit widened. On Thursday, traders will be focused on the Bank of England’s meeting and minutes at 11:00 GMT. Markets will be expecting dovish comments from British central bank. Such expectations will be negative for GBP/USD.

USD/JPY is testing resistance in the 121.00 area. The pair rose above September 3 high of 120.70 that is a bullish development. Above 121.00 the next resistance will be at 121.70 and 122.00. Support is at 120.20 and 119.60.

AUD/USD keeps correcting to the upside. Positive comments from RBA Deputy Governor Lowe overshadowed decline in consumer sentiment. Above 0.7070 Aussie may be able to rise to 0.7180/0.7200. Support is at 0.7015 and 0.6980. Traders await Chinese inflation & Australian employment data due at 01:30 GMT on Thursday.

NZD/USD rose above 0.6400. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to cut the benchmark rate from 3% to 2.75%. Such action of the central bank is already priced in NZD/USD, so for a considerable decline of the pair something really negative should happen. Resistance is at 0.6500 and 0.6580. Support is at 0.6315/00.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6375

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/NZD: buy target - 1.1250
10 September 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/NZD reversed from pivotal support level 1.0940
-Next buy target - 1.1250

AUD/NZD recently reversed up sharply from the pivotal support level 1.0940 (which reversed earlier waves A, (b) and (i), as you can see from the daily AUD/NZD chart below). The support zone near this support level was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp upward impulse wave from April.

The pair is likely to rise further in the active minor corrective wave (ii) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.1250 (which reversed the price at the end of August). Strong support remains at 1.0940.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6383

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for September 11

Kira Iukhtenko



US Dollar remains under slight bearish pressure as investors doubt the Fed will dare to hike interest rates in September. USD index slipped below 96 points. On Friday we’ll be watching the US PPI and consumer sentiment index - both forecasts are downbeat, so selling pressure on USD could persist till the end of the week.

EUR/USD jumped far above 1.1200 on Thursday following the last week’s dip to 1.1080. Next resistance is seen at 1.1330. On Friday we’ll watch the final German CPI. EU finance ministers are scheduled to meet in Brussels to discuss the most urgent issues in the regional economy.

Meanwhile, GBP/USD surged above 1.5450, supported by a slightly more hawkish Bank of England. Monetary authorities resumed talks about a potential rate hike in the near term and don’t see the crisis in China as a serious obstacle. On Friday the BOE member Forbes is scheduled to speak.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand shocked the market on Thursday, cutting its benchmark rate down to 2.75%. NZD/USD lost about 150 points on the news, but found some support around 0.6270. Resistance is seen at 0.6300 and 0.6400. As for AUD/USD, a fix above 0.7050 will pave the ground for a correction to 0.7200/50.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6389

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/CAD: buy target - 1.5200
11 September 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/CAD rises inside intermediate correction (2)
-Next buy target - 1.5200

EUR/CAD recently reversed down sharply – after the pair reached the buy target 1.5400, set in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The subsequent downward impulse wave (1) stopped in the support zone lying between the support level 1.4650 and the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous upward impulse from the end of June (as can be seen from the daily EUR/CAD chart below).

The pair is likely to rise further in the active intermediate corrective wave (2) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.5200 (target price calculated for the completion of this correction).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6394