Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/CHF: buy target - 1.1100
11 September 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/CHF reached buy target 1.0950
-Next buy target - 1.1100

EUR/CHF recently broke above the resistance level 1.0950, which was set in our previous report as the buy target for this currency pair. The breakout of this resistance level continues the active minor impulse wave 5, which started earlier in August – when the pair reversed up strongly from the support zone lying between the support level 1.0740, 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous impulse from June and the upper channel line of the daily up channel from April.

EUR/CHF is likely to rise further in the active impulse waves 5 and (3) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.1100 (target for the termination of wave (3)).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6393

 

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Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast for September 14-20

By Elizabeth Belugina

Japanese yen has weakened versus the US currency in the past week because of the expectations of the Bank of Japan’s additional monetary policy easing. These expectations revived as the adviser to Japanese premier Shinzo Abe said that the central bank’s October meeting presents a “good opportunity” for further quantitative easing (QE). Such comments hit the markers, which were worried because of the recent weak Japan’s economic figures and the volatility in stocks.

For now, the Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda stubbornly sticks to the positive view on Japan’s economic prospects underlining that the regulator’s policy is loose enough. Next week we will hear from Kuroda on Tuesday at the Bank of Japan’s press conference and on Thursday when he is due to make a speech. Still, as the comments of Japanese central bank come before the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, we do not think that the position of Japanese regulator may seriously change. So, we believe that the Bank of Japan’s Tuesday meeting will not seriously affect the market.

Note that during the most part of the upcoming trading week players will be in the situation of the uncertainty trying to foresee whether the Fed announces a rate hike on Thursday or not. Another source of uncertainty is China, which will publish industrial production data on Sunday, September 13. This uncertainty will limit USD/JPY on the upside.

USD/JPY may consolidate in the 120.70/119.00 area ahead of the Fed. On the upside, further resistance lies at 121.70, 122.00 and 122.50. On the downside, further support is at 118.30/00 and in the 116.00 zone.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6398

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: forecast for September 14-20


By Elizabeth Belugina

EUR/USD got support from the 100-day MA in the 1.11 zone and managed to creep up to the 1.13 area.

In the medium term, the euro area’s fundamentals look weak, and the European Central Bank’s focus on policy easing will keep the euro under pressure. In the short-term, however, one should be cautious with the euro shorts. Even if the US Federal Reserve rates rate in September, euro may hold its ground after the initial decline as the market’s risk sentiment will likely deteriorate supporting demand for the euro as a refuge currency.

Next week the focus will surely be on American economic releases. In the euro area, pay attention to German ZEW economic sentiment on Tuesday and the region’s current account data on Thursday. On Sunday, September 20, there will be parliamentary election in Greece. According to the latest polls, no political party is able to gain majority, so Greece will likely face the coalition government, which may be rather difficult to form. The event may create moderate negative risks for the euro.

Overall, we prepare for a volatile trading week. The main levels to watch on the downside are 1.1100, 1.1015 and 1.0950. On the upside, resistance is at 1.1330 and 1.1436/66.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6400

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: forecast for September 14-20

By Elizabeth Belugina

The Bank of England left monetary policy unchanged. Only one member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to raise the benchmark interest rate. One of the main things was that the central bank played down the impact of China’s stock-market slump on Britain’s economic prospects. In addition, some members saw continued upside risks to the inflation outlook. Overall, the Bank of England was not as dovish as expected allowing the cable to rise to 1.5475. The market expects the central bank to raise rates in the beginning of 2016.

At the same time, the series of weak UK economic data releases cast doubt over the BOE’s outlook on the interest rates and may limit the sterling’s advance together with uncertainty ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s meeting on Thursday.

GBP/USD is facing the bearish Ichimoku Cloud on the weekly chart. The pair approached significant resistance area of 1.5515/35 (100- and 55-day MAs). However, sterling has managed to settle above the 200-day MA at 1.5350 and a move below this support is needed to return the full power to the bears. Further support is at 1.5250.

Next week the UK will release inflation figures on Tuesday, labor market data on Wednesday and retail sales on Thursday. In addition, on Saturday, September 12, the new leader of Britain's main opposition Labour Party will be announced. The leader will likely be from the party’s left wing, which opposes austerity measures, so this may lead to some bearish pressure on sterling.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6399

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

US dollar: forecast for September 14-20

By Elizabeth Belugina

US dollar index showed modest declines in the past week. The greenback declined versus the euro, British pound and Australian dollar, but strengthened against Japanese yen.

The highlight of the next week will surely be the meeting of Federal Reserve on Thursday, September 17.

Analysts have high opinion of the US labor market data. Good state of the labor data is the necessary condition for the Fed's rate hike. Although in August jobs gains were lower than expected, the jobless rate dropped to 5.1% level, where the Fed considers the economy to be at “full employment.” For now, the market is pricing in about 30-50% possibility of September rate hike.

If US central bank chooses to tighten policy, it will accompany such action with dovish comments in order to smooth negative impact on stocks. Still, the initial reaction to a rate hike will be certainly very positive for the greenback making it strengthen versus all of its competitors.

However, the volatile performance of Chinese stocks and the risks connected with that will make it hard for the Fed’s (FOMC) members to reach an agreement on a rate hike. Those who think that the Fed will wait with raising rates argue that the central bank has not raised rates when the CBOE Volatility Index was as high as it is now. At the same time, the Fed does not officially target stocks and does not have mandate to support the stock market. Moreover, the delay in hikes will provoke further uncertainty that can hurt stocks in the medium term even more. If the Fed does not raise rates, US dollar will weaken, but we do not think that it will be a start of a downtrend, especially against commodity currencies.

There are still some figures to look at ahead of the Fed’s decision. Pay attention to American retail sales on Tuesday and inflation figures on Wednesday.

Overall, we expect the market’s nervousness increase by Thursday. The Fed’s announcement will provoke volatile moves, so be careful with open positions ahead of the event.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6397

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: buy target - 1.5500
15 September 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/USD rises inside minor wave (ii)
-Next buy target - 1.5500

GBP/USD recently reversed up sharply after reaching the support level 1.5200, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The support zone near 1.5200 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band, 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous (B)-wave from April and the lower support trendline of the daily down channel from June. The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing.

GBP/USD is likely to rise further in the active minor correction (ii) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.5500.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6428

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for September 15

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1315, TAKE PROFIT 1.1087, STOP LOSS 1.1402

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0910, TAKE PROFIT 1.1186, STOP LOSS 1.0869

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3185, TAKE PROFIT 1.3467, STOP LOSS 1.3100

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.6335, TAKE PROFIT 0.6130, STOP LOSS 0.6485

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG at 0.7320, TAKE PROFIT 0.7483, STOP LOSS 0.7260

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5340, TAKE PROFIT 1.5563, STOP LOSS 1.5280

USD/CHF: SELL at 0.9730, TAKE PROFIT 0.9569, STOP LOSS 0.9798

AUD/USD: BUY at 0.7100, TAKE PROFIT 0.7250, STOP LOSS 0.7030

EUR/JPY: BUY at 134.80, TAKE PROFIT 139.17, STOP LOSS 134.05

EUR/CAD: BUY at 1.4890, TAKE PROFIT 1.5192, STOP LOSS 1.4740

GBP/JPY: Possibly BUY

_________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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Danske Bank: trade signals for September 15 - Forex Analytics

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for September 16

By Elizabeth Belugina

Data released in the United States on Tuesday showed that US retail sales growth has slowed down in August, but the previous figures for July were revised to the upside. Overall, the report provides positive view of the US economy, though it doesn’t offer new hints about whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates on Thursday. On Wednesday, pay attention to the US inflation release at 12:30 GMT. In general, volatility should be high ahead of the Fed’s meeting, and many traders will be widely withdrawing their USD exposure. This will create moderate negative pressure on the greenback.

EUR/USD edged down to the 1.1300 area after spiking to 1.1372 on Monday. German and the euro area’s ZEW economic sentiment indexes significantly declined. Support is at 1.1280, 1.1240 and 1.1150. Resistance is at 1.1375 and 1.1436/66.

GBP/USD is fluctuating around 1.5400. The UK will release employment data at 08:30 GMT, forecasts are quite positive. The main support is at 1.5350 (200-day MA) – as long as the pound stays above this line, the bears won’t be able to return to power. Above this line British currency retains growth potential. If UK data don’t disappoint, the pair will be able to rise to 1.5450 and 1.5520 (100- and 55-day MAs).

USD/JPY continued its descent. The Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged. Governor Kuroda sounded rather optimistic on the nation’s economic prospects, though many traders thought that the regulator would at least think about expanding monetary stimulus.

AUD/USD met resistance in the 0.7165 area (trend line resistance). Chinese stocks decline. The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s of Australia meeting offered no surprises. Support is at 0.7050 and 0.9600. Further resistance is at 0.7200.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6437

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Pound weakened against dollar
16 September 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The British currency showed weakness against the American again during yesterday's trading. The bulls have failed to break through the 1.5460 resistance to the four-hour Ichimoku cloud upper border and, after yet another failed attempt, they decided to leave the market. As a result, the currency pair rate decreased to the cloud's lower border support, into the 1.5320/30 area, by the end of the day. The Tenkan and Kijun lines have cancelled the golden cross action, and the cloud is again expanding downwards, threatening with a bearish trend development. It might make sense to take the sellers' sides after the Tenkan and Kijun lines levels testing.

Technical levels: support – 1.5320; resistance – 1.5390.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.5390; SL — 1.5410; TP1 — 1.5290; TP2 — 1.5230.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6440

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Euro kept inside cloud
16 September 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

As expected, EUR/USD bounced off the cloud's upper border resistance at 1.3440-1.3460 and, as a result, remained within the four-hour Ichimoku cloud. The short-term upward trend is yet maintained since the golden cross is still in action. However, we consider the bulls' inability to break the Tenkan-sen line up as a sign of weakness. Consequently, this will be a good chance for sales with immediate goals up to the lower border levels.

Technical levels: support – 1.1250; resistance – 1.1300.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.1300; SL — 1.1320; TP1 — 1.1220; TP2 — 1.1170.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6439