Pre-Open US

[Zforex]

US INDICES:

Stock futures were higher Friday as traders assessed the latest corporate earnings results, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average tried to stretch its winning streak to 10 sessions. S&P 500 futures gained 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures ticked up 0.5%.
Corporate earnings have been mixed thus far. Seventy-three percent of S&P 500 companies that have already reported exceeding analysts’ expectations, according to FactSet data. However, that beat rate is below a three-year average of 80%, according to The Earnings Scout.
Netflix Inc. and Tesla Inc. climbed in pre-market trading. Both stocks led the Nasdaq 100 Index to sharp losses on Thursday on the back of results that disappointed investors. American Express Co. fell almost 3% in the premarket after missing revenue forecasts.
Regional Banks were higher in premarket trading on Friday, with the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) up more than 9% since Monday.
The Nasdaq technically started a correction after touching an important resistance level and came back by 2.3% yesterday. Next support is around the 15250 level.​

USOIL:

The prices have increased by 8.2% since the beginning of the month. This rise can be attributed to several factors, including Saudi Arabia's decision to implement a voluntary export cut of one million barrels per day for July and August, along with Russia's own cuts and tighter quotas for other OPEC+ members. However, these cuts come at a time when developed economies are slowing down due to rising interest rates, which is affecting the demand for oil.
China, as the top importer, has also played a role in keeping prices below the 2023 high of US$83.26 per barrel reached in mid-April. The weak growth in China has been a contributing factor. Nevertheless, the country is taking measures to stimulate its economy, such as introducing support measures for car and electronics purchases. However, it remains uncertain whether these steps will result in immediate increased demand.
Despite the efforts of the two biggest exporters, Saudi Arabia and Russia, there is still limited evidence that the cuts are significantly reducing the excess inventory. For instance, the United States reported a decrease in inventories of only 0.7 million barrels last week, which was less than expected.
In summary, the oil price surge can be attributed to export cuts by major oil-producing countries, slowing growth in developed economies, and weak demand in China. While China is trying to boost its economy through support measures, the impact on immediate demand remains uncertain. Furthermore, there are indications that the cuts made by Saudi Arabia and Russia may not be leading to substantial inventory drawdowns.
WTI crude oil is once again approaching the 77-resistance level, posing a challenge for WTI to sustain its momentum towards the next target of 79. Furthermore, on a weekly basis, the 200MA is acting as a barrier at the 77 mark.​

Crypto:

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced a decline on Friday, with digital assets continuing to perform worse than the stock market. This trend is concerning for the overall sentiment towards cryptocurrencies.
Market data suggests that unpredictable sellers are putting downward pressure on crypto prices, which is different from the stock market, where investor optimism and positive sentiment have been driving stocks higher in recent weeks. Although cryptocurrencies and stocks are distinct, some Bitcoin enthusiasts view the decoupling of token and equity prices as a positive aspect. Nevertheless, both asset types remain sensitive to risks and have shown similar dynamics this year, especially in response to interest rate and recession concerns.
In an unexpected turn of events, Tesla, the electric vehicle and clean energy company, has removed Bitcoin from the source code of its payment page. Surprisingly, Dogecoin remains unaffected by this change. This development has triggered speculation among cryptocurrency enthusiasts, particularly due to Tesla's previous involvement with both cryptocurrencies.
Technically, Bitcoin (BTC) continue experiencing a range-bound price action formation, with the resistance level at 31,800 and the support level at 29,900. Traders are paying close attention to the weekly chart, specifically watching for a potential breakout above the 100-day moving average (100MA). A successful breakout above this level has the potential to drive the price towards the initial resistance at 36,000.

 

[Zforex]

US INDICES:

Investors are expecting a quarter percentage point increase in rates from the Federal Reserve after its meeting on Wednesday. Their focus will be on Chair Jerome Powell's comments, seeking insights into the central bank's approach to handling the economy for a smooth landing. A majority of economists polled by Reuters still expect this will be the last increase of the current tightening cycle, after data this month showed signs of disinflation, eliminating the need for the Fed to lift rates further and supporting the thesis that has helped buoy stocks in recent weeks.
In the upcoming week, there will be a surge in earnings results, particularly on Thursday, which will be the busiest day. Approximately 40% of the Dow and 30% of the S&P 500 companies will be presenting their financial updates. Notable companies like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta are among those reporting. Additionally, significant pharmaceutical, industrial, and big oil companies are also preparing to release their reports, making it a crucial week for these sectors.
Before trading begins on Monday, exchange operator Nasdaq NDAQ will trim the weight of a handful of companies that make up close to half of the Nasdaq 100. Nasdaq describes the Nasdaq 100 as a "modified market capitalization-weighted index," with company weights depending on their stock market value, while also applying rules to limit the influence of the largest stocks in the index.
The Nasdaq is currently undergoing a correction, heading towards the next support level around 15,250. If it breaks below 15,250, it may further decline towards the median line at approximately 14,750.

USOIL:

Oil prices have experienced a fourth consecutive weekly increase due to indications of tightness in global markets. Notably, Russian supply has been declining, with crude oil shipments from the country dropping to a six-month low in the four weeks leading up to July 16. This has positively affected market sentiment. Additionally, the risks of supply disruptions have risen following Ukraine's warning that any ships heading to Russian ports may be considered military targets.
Investors have factored in quarter-point interest rate hikes from both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank for this week. As a result, all eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde to gain insights into potential future rate increases.
The rise in interest rates has had a dampening effect on investments and has also strengthened the value of the US dollar. Consequently, dollar-denominated commodities have become more expensive for holders of other currencies.
In China, the state planner recently introduced measures aimed at stimulating private investment in certain infrastructure sectors. Additionally, there are plans to reinforce financing support for private projects. Market participants anticipate that Beijing will implement targeted stimulus measures to support its slowing economy, which is likely to boost oil demand in the world's second-largest consumer.
WTI crude oil has broken the $77 resistance level, opening the door for WTI to sustain its momentum towards the next target of $79. Furthermore, on a weekly basis, the 200MA is acting as a barrier at the $77 mark. The Black Sea is home to a major Russian oil terminal.

Crypto:

On Monday, the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced a decline, and traders were closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary-policy decision this week. Despite the global launch of a new cryptocurrency co-founded by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, the overall sentiment in the sector remained subdued.
Adding to the cryptocurrency landscape, another token made its debut on Monday. Worldcoin, a cryptocurrency project aiming to establish a digital "proof of personhood" through eye-scanning technology in response to the growing presence of artificial intelligence, officially launched. Notably, the project has the backing of Sam Altman, renowned for his leadership role in OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT.
Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange, announced its intention to list the Worldcoin token. However, it's worth noting that the token is not yet available in the United States, owing to regulatory uncertainties surrounding the crypto industry.
Technically, Bitcoin (BTC) break the 29700-support level that was holing for one month and taking price toward the next target at 28000.

 

[Zforex]

Earnings Season, Federal Reserve Decision, Oil Prices, and Cryptocurrency Fluctuations

US INDICES

The S&P 500 futures registered a modest increase of 0.1%, and the Nasdaq-100 futures showed a more substantial climb of 0.3%. General Motors experienced a rise of over 1% in its shares after raising its full-year earnings guidance. General Electric also saw a significant 4% increase, fueled by stronger-than-expected revenue in the second quarter.
The positive earnings season has contributed to the ongoing market rally. However, market participants are anxiously anticipating the Federal Reserve's policy decision, scheduled for Wednesday. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 98% probability of a quarter-point hike in the Fed funds futures data. Investors are particularly interested in hearing Chair Jerome Powell's economic outlook and how the Federal Reserve plans to address the issue of inflation.
After the market closes, there are high-profile technology companies, Alphabet and Microsoft, slated to announce their quarterly results. This announcement will be closely watched by Wall Street. Additionally, July's consumer confidence data will be another key factor to consider in the market's assessment.
The Nasdaq is currently undergoing a correction, heading towards the next support level of around 15,250. If it breaks below 15,250, it may further decline toward the median line at approximately 14,750.​

USOIL:

USOIL

There are signs of supply tightening that have been bolstering prices, primarily attributed to the output cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allied producers, which are now coming into effect. In July, Russia's exports reached a six-month low, and ship tracking data suggests reduced shipments from OPEC producers.
Moreover, the bank reported that refinery profitability has reached its highest level since March, thanks to increased demand during the summer driving season.
In China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, leaders have made commitments to enhance economic policy support. However, there has been a contraction in business activity in the Eurozone, which exceeded expectations in July, as per a survey.
Regarding the United States, a closely watched survey indicated that business activity had slowed to a five-month low in July. However, the survey also showed that input prices were declining, and hiring was slowing down, suggesting that the Federal Reserve might be making progress in its efforts to control inflation. Market expectations during that week indicated 25-basis-point rate hikes from both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.
WTI crude oil has reached the resistance level at $79 and is currently undergoing correction. The next potential support level might be the previous resistance at $77. The overall trend appears to be healthy and positive, with a potential target of $80 seeming feasible.
​

Crypto:

Bitcoin

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced price fluctuations as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision. Notably, Dogecoin witnessed a significant surge in value as traders speculated on its potential integration into Elon Musk's plans for expanding his X social-media platform.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. The main point of interest is not whether there will be a 25 basis points (bps) increase in the benchmark borrowing cost, but rather whether this hike will signal the end of a 16-month tightening cycle that was partially responsible for the crypto market crash last year.
Interestingly, Bitcoin's performance may not be heavily influenced by the Fed's communication or Wall Street sentiment. Over the past 90 days, the correlation between Bitcoin and stocks has weakened. Nonetheless, it's important to remember that correlations are backward-looking indicators and can change rapidly.
Technically, Bitcoin (BTC) broke the 29700-support level that was holding for one month, taking the price towards the next target at 28000, where the 100MA may also help the price find support there. After that, the 27300 level will be the next support, located at the lower parallel of the actual long bullish channel.​

 

[Zforex]

US Tech Shares Decline, Fed Rate Hike Anticipation, and Crypto Market Highlights - Daily Market Update

​

US INDICES

In premarket trading on Wednesday, US technology shares experienced a decline due to disappointing earnings in the sector and concerns about potential interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve.
According to market sentiment, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points later today. Additionally, Fed funds futures suggest a 44% chance of another quarter-point hike after this, while any possibility of a rate cut has been deferred until March.
Before the Fed's decision, the FOMC will receive data on June new home sales, with economists predicting a drop in the annual rate to 725K.
Earnings reports are still coming in, with Microsoft witnessing a decline after posting their earnings, whereas Alphabet's stock rose. Later today, Meta will also release their earnings report after the bell.
The Nasdaq is currently undergoing a correction, heading towards the next support level of around 15,250. If it breaks below 15,250, it may further decline toward the median line at approximately 14,750.​

USOIL

Yesterday's data from the trade group API revealed an unexpected weekly increase in US crude-oil inventories. This development came as a surprise to many analysts who had been predicting continuous inventory declines during the fall due to high summer demand, OPEC output cuts, and the US's plan to refill its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The decline in oil prices may also be attributed to uncertainty surrounding the actions and statements of the Federal Reserve after its meeting concludes today.
In the week leading up to July 23, Russia's seaborne crude exports from Baltic and Black Sea ports dropped to the lowest level in seven months, amounting to 1.17 million barrels per day. Despite expectations that Saudi Arabia will maintain its August output cuts into September, Reuters reported that Russia is likely to significantly increase its oil loading in September, ending the period of steep export cuts.
At the same time, there are concerns about whether China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, will fulfill its policy commitments.
Furthermore, it is widely anticipated that the US central bank will implement a 25-basis point rate hike later today. WTI crude oil has reached the resistance level 80 and a possible correction may happen toward.​

Crypto

The meme cryptocurrency Dogecoin (DOGE) experienced a significant 10% surge on Tuesday, marking its largest single-day gain since April 3. Over the past two weeks, DOGE has impressively gained 25%, driven by speculations of potential usage as a payment method on Twitter's rebranded platform. While the rest of the crypto market appears to be entering a summer lull, DOGE stands out as the standout performer, with other crypto themes taking a backseat.
In a significant legal development, Singapore's High Court recognized cryptocurrencies as property capable of being held on trust. This ruling came about in a case involving the Seychelles-based exchange, Bybit, and one of its contractors, Ho Kai Xin. Bybit accused Ho of breaching her employment contract and misusing her position to transfer more than 4.2 million of Tether's USDT stablecoin to her personal addresses. Additionally, she also transferred some fiat currency to her own bank account. The presiding Judge Philip Jeyaretnam affirmed that like any other asset, USDT can be held on trust.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, showed little movement at the beginning of the week, but market participants closely monitored its volatility as macro triggers approached. Of particular interest was the announcement of Fed rates, which was expected to lead to erratic and potentially unpredictable short-term price movements for BTC, following the traditional pattern. Investors eagerly awaited both the announcement itself and the subsequent commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell for further insights.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin (BTC) broke the 29700-support level that had been holding for one month, pushing the price towards the next target at 28000, where the 100MA may also offer support. Beyond that, the 27300 level will be the subsequent support, located at the lower parallel of the current long bullish channel.​

 

[Zforex]

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures Rise, Earnings Season Highlights, USOIL and Crypto Trends

US INDICES:

The S&P 500 futures showed a rise of 0.56%, while the Nasdaq 100 futures experienced a 0.98% increase.
During the ongoing earnings season, Procter & Gamble, a member of the Dow, saw its shares gain more than 1.1% in premarket trading on Friday. The consumer goods company, known for brands like Tide, surpassed analysts' expectations for both earnings and revenue in its latest quarter.
Intel's stock surged by over 7% as investors celebrated the company's return to profitability. Similarly, Roku's shares climbed by 8% after surpassing Wall Street's expectations for both revenue and profit.
However, Ford Motor's shares dropped approximately 1.4%, despite the automaker beating estimates and raising its guidance. The decline was attributed to the company reporting delays in its electric vehicle adoption due to higher costs.
Investors also took note of the June data for the personal consumption expenditures price index. The data indicated that the core PCE had a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, in line with economists' expectations polled by Dow Jones, which also holds particular significance after the central bank's expected decision to raise interest rates earlier in the week. The Federal Reserve aims to maintain an annual inflation target of 2%.
The Nasdaq is currently undergoing a correction but finding support around the 15400-support level, heading towards the next support level of around 15,250. If it breaks below 15,250, it may further decline toward the median line at approximately 14,750.
​

USOIL:

Surprisingly, the growth in the US gross domestic product accelerated, and pending home sales in the US increased in June. This reinforces the argument for a smooth economic transition after a period of aggressive rate hikes.
Additionally, the Chinese government committed to supporting households by subsidizing spending on automobiles, household goods, tourism, and sports.
On the supply side, there are signs of tightening as evidenced by the declining US inventories and Saudi Arabia's voluntary cut of 1 million barrels per day. Commerzbank analysts emphasized that this month might have witnessed OPEC oil production reaching its lowest level since the autumn of 2021.
WTI crude oil continues the bullish trend toward the fifth week of gains. The momentum is strong and a breakout of the 80 resistance level seems close to next target at 81.3.
​

Bitcoin

Bitcoin's current investor sentiment remains neutral, leaving the market at a critical decision point. Following a recent sharp decline, the cryptocurrency stabilized around $29,000 and briefly showed signs of potential recovery when the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates. However, the subsequent surge lost momentum, and if indecisiveness persists in the coming days, Bitcoin stagnation may endure, with potential moves in either direction unlikely to be sustained for long.
Recently, the U.S. Congress embarked on its first-ever markup for digital asset legislation to establish clear jurisdiction for the nation's chief market regulators. The bill, however, faced resistance from Democrats who viewed it as overly favorable to the crypto industry, resembling the stance advocated by FTX boss Sam Bankman-Fried. The movement towards regulating the crypto industry in the USA appears to be imminent, especially given the recent remarks from Jerome Powell acknowledging the industry's importance in the finance sphere and its significant presence. Additionally, the awaited legislation from Europe is expected to further enhance the credibility and adoption of cryptocurrencies.
Technically, Bitcoin (BTC) broke the 29700-support level that was held for one month, taking the price towards the next target at 28000, where the 100MA may also help the price find support there. After that, the 27300 level will be the next support, located at the lower parallel of the actual long bullish channel.​

 

[Zforex]

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures Rise, Oil Prices Surge, Bitcoin's Calm Phase

US INDICES

S&P 500 futures registered a 0.1% increase, while Nasdaq-100 futures experienced a slight decline. The S&P has risen by 3% in July, marking its fifth consecutive positive month, a streak not seen since the seven-month period ending in August 2021. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has also performed well, gaining 3.8% this month, achieving its fifth straight winning month.
Wall Street is currently benefiting from a favorable combination of factors, including disinflation, peak interest rates, and consistent growth trends. The ongoing earnings season has exceeded forecasts, propelling stocks to their highest levels in over a year, further bolstering the positive sentiment.
This week will be busy with more earnings reports, including notable companies like Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. Additionally, there are key economic data releases, such as the US July non-farm payroll numbers, which may offer insights into the future direction of interest rates.
Nasdaq corrected from 15400 but 15900 a resistance level keeps being the challenge for any new higher highs. The Bullish long channel technically needs a correction after the actual rally.​

USOIL:

Oil prices are poised to register their largest monthly gains in over a year, thanks to the anticipation that Saudi Arabia will extend voluntary output cuts into September and tighten the global supply. Analysts, including Goldman Sachs, and oil executives like ExxonMobil's CEO Darren Woods, predict that demand will remain resilient and reach a record high in the coming months. Additionally, the market foresees Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ leaders extending their 1 million bpd production cut into September. The Kingdom is currently reducing production by 1 million bpd in July and August, along with an additional 500,000 bpd reduction as part of the OPEC+ cuts that began in May. Russia is also committed to a 500,000-bpd cut in August oil exports, and signs indicate that Russian crude shipments are already declining. Furthermore, the macroeconomic sentiment has improved, as evident from the recent U.S. inflation data showing a slowdown in price increases. China is expected to support its economy after experiencing slower-than-expected growth in the second quarter.
WTI crude oil making a new breakout of the last resistance level at 81.3 and going toward the next target at 83.5. The 83.5 target will be a real challenge for WTI as it represents a historical resistance level from 22 November.​

Crypto:

According to the on-chain analytics platform Glassnode, Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be going through its calmest market phase since January. This period of low volatility is unusual for the cryptocurrency market. While some people believe that Bitcoin is overdue for a decline, data indicates that buying pressure is returning to current levels. Additionally, there is a potential long-term bull flag expected to confirm on the monthly close, which could be positive for Bitcoin bulls.
During this quiet macro week, attention is shifting to other potential price triggers for the crypto market. Cointelegraph is examining major topics that could influence the markets in the coming days and beyond.
Following a startling disclosure by CEO Brian Armstrong, the share price of Coinbase, the Nasdaq-listed crypto exchange, dropped by over 10%. The reason behind this decline was a controversial request from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before the lawsuit against Coinbase. The SEC demanded that Coinbase cease trading all cryptocurrencies except for Bitcoin.

Technically, Bitcoin broke the 29700-support level that was holding for one month, taking the price towards the next target at 28000, where the 100MA may also help the price find support there. After that, the 27300 level will be the next support, located at the lower parallel of the actual long bullish channel. The relevance of this is that because Bitcoin is rarely quiet for such long periods, the likelihood of a volatile move either way increases.​

 

[Zforex]

Merck and Caterpillar Earnings Exceed Expectations, Oil Prices Near 3-Month Highs, Bitcoin Network Faces Investor Inflow Challenges

US INDICES:

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures both experienced losses, with the former losing 0.3% and the latter losing 0.5%. Pharmaceutical giant Merck reported a loss less than anticipated and exceeded revenue expectations, thanks to strong Keytruda sales. Consequently, Merck's shares increased by 1%. On the other hand, Caterpillar also reported earnings and revenue beyond expectations, but its stock remained flat.
Pfizer's results were mixed as Covid product sales plummeted, while Uber's numbers were also mixed but resulted in a surprise profit, leading to a more than 4% increase in its shares before the bell.
Over 160 S&P 500 constituents are scheduled to report their latest quarterly results this week. More than half of the companies in the broad market index have already reported, with 80% posting earnings beats, according to FactSet.
On Tuesday, economic indicators, including job openings and labor turnover numbers from June and the July manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, will also be released.
Nasdaq corrected from 15400 but 15900 a resistance level keeps being the challenge for any new higher highs. The bullish long channel technically needs a correction after the actual rally.
​

USOIL:

Oil near 3-month highs as tight supply and second-half demand growth takes center stage. West Texas Intermediate crude futures at $81.53, down 27 cents from its highest settlement since April 14. Analysts warn of potential correction risk due to overbought markets. A positive outlook emerges as central banks boost confidence in major economies. US fuel demand is at its highest level since August 2019, while China seeks to boost recovery momentum. Eurozone manufacturing contracts in July, OPEC+ meeting to discuss supply cuts. BP's chief predicts a strong outlook for oil prices in the coming months and years. All those factors are affecting right now Oil price, but the supply side continues to be the most influential factor from them all.
WTI crude oil was corrected from the $82 level, and the next support could be around the $80 area. The long-term trend remains bullish, and the next challenge will be breaking the historical resistance level at $82.60 in December 2022.

Crypto:

The Bitcoin (BTC) network is currently experiencing a decline in inflows, which may suggest a lack of new investors or a pause in investments from existing holders. Both factors are essential to maintain price stability and trigger positive price movement. A decrease in network inflows often indicates reduced market interest, potentially leading to a drop in price. Notably, institutional investors, who have played a significant role in Bitcoin's growth, are also seen halting their inflows into the network. This aligns with the market's lowered expectations of a Bitcoin ETF approval, which was anticipated to be a major bullish catalyst for Bitcoin.

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin broke the 29700-support level that was holding for one month, taking the price towards the next target at 28000, where the 100MA may also help the price find support there. After that, the 27300 level will be the next support, located at the lower parallel of the actual long bullish channel. The relevance of this is that because Bitcoin is rarely quiet for such long periods, the likelihood of a volatile move either way increases.​

 

[Zforex]

Markets React to Fitch Rating Downgrade and Mixed Earnings Reports; Oil Prices Surge Amid OPEC's Production Cuts and Bitcoin Sees a Turnaround

US INDICES:

During Tuesday's trading session, S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures declined by 0.9% and 1.1% respectively. Fitch Ratings downgraded the U.S.'s long-term foreign currency issuer default rating to AA+ from AAA, citing an anticipated fiscal deterioration over the next three years. On the positive side, Advanced Micro Devices saw a 1% rise in extended trading due to better-than-expected quarterly results, while SolarEdge Technologies experienced a 12% drop after missing second-quarter revenue expectations.
August started with a lackluster first day of trading in the S&P 500, which fell by 0.27%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined by 0.43%. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to add 71.15 points or 0.2%, reaching its highest level since February 2022 at one point during the session.
Earnings season is progressing well, with about 82% of S&P 500 companies reporting positive surprises according to FactSet data. This trend has boosted bullish investor sentiment and continued the market's recovery since the third quarter began.
Traders are anticipating the July ADP jobs report on Wednesday before the open. Economists expect a 175,000 increase, which would be lower than the 497,000 rise in the prior month.
Nasdaq corrected from 15400 but 15900 a resistance level keeps being the challenge for any new higher highs. The bullish long channel technically needs a correction after the actual rally.
​

USOIL:

OPEC's oil production has decreased due to voluntary cuts by Saudi Arabia and the suspension of crude oil loadings at Nigeria's Forcados terminal due to a leak risk. In July, the group pumped 840,000 barrels per day less than in June, leading to a rise in oil prices, with Brent reaching $85 per barrel and WTI approaching $82 per barrel.
The main concerns now are how high oil prices will rise before OPEC starts rolling back the cuts and whether they can increase production quickly if needed. Saudi Arabia needs oil prices at $90 per barrel to support its ambitious public spending plans under the Vision 2030 diversification program. However, if prices climb too high, it could dampen demand and have adverse effects.
Nigeria, Angola, and Libya have struggled to meet their OPEC quotas, while U.S. shale production growth has slowed down.
China's strong oil demand further supports the market, with imports at near-record levels and rising oil storage.
The decision on how long Saudi Arabia will maintain its voluntary cuts will significantly impact the oil market. Meanwhile, Russia is drilling for oil at record levels, potentially providing additional supply to temper prices.
Technically, the price of WTI continues its bullish momentum, and the long-term trend remains positive. The next challenge will be breaking the historical resistance level at $82.60 in December 2022.​

Crypto:

MicroStrategy, the largest publicly traded holder of Bitcoin (BTC), has returned to profitability in Q2. Overcoming a $1 billion impairment charge from the previous year's cryptocurrency market downturn, the Virginia-based company reported net earnings of $22.2 million, a significant improvement compared to the previous year's loss of over $1 billion. Former CEO Michael Saylor's bet on Bitcoin proved successful as the cryptocurrency rebounded, lifting the company's financials. MicroStrategy plans to raise to $750 million via share sales for general corporate purposes, including more Bitcoin purchases, working capital, and potentially repurchasing debt. Recently, the company bought an additional 467 Bitcoins, bringing their total holdings to an impressive 152,800 BTC.
The impact on the Bitcoin price was significant, and currently, BTC is trading around the 30,000 area. The improvement in sentiment appears to be temporary, as the market requires more bullish news and further developments to sustain positive momentum.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin came back to its last support at the 30,000 level. A breakout of this level is necessary for any sustained short-term trend. The actual price action shows a rejection of the 30,000, and a possible comeback is more probable towards first the 28,800 support and followed by the 28,000.​

 

[Zforex]

Tech Stocks React to Earnings Reports, Oil Prices and Supply Conditions, Bitcoin and MicroStrategy's Strategy ​

US INDICES:

Futures tied to the S&P 500 fell 0.3%, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.5%.
Chipmaker Qualcomm lost 8% after the company missed analysts’ expectations on fiscal third-quarter revenue and guidance for the current period. DoorDash added 3.6% after beating expectations on revenue, while Moderna gained on a boosted Covid vaccine outlook.
Tech leader Apple and e-commerce giant Amazon are slated to report after the close. Thus far, nearly 67% of the constituents in the S&P 500 have issued their latest quarterly reports, with about 81% of those companies beating expectations, according to FactSet.
Wall Street also assessed the latest economic data, including in-line weekly jobless claims. Productivity data also showed an uptick in the second quarter.
Nasdaq corrected from 15400 but 15900 a resistance level keeps being the challenge for any new higher highs. The bullish long channel technically is having the first signals of possible correction after the double top pattern formed.​

USOIL:

As the OPEC+ panel prepares to meet on Friday, all attention is focused on Saudi Arabia's production plans. Although OPEC+ is unlikely to change its current policy, Saudi Arabia may signal its intention to continue its 1 million bpd unilateral cut. Analysts believe Saudi Arabia will extend the cut into September to maintain market stability. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is not expected to recommend changes to the current supply. Oil prices had a brief dip after a sell-off prompted by Fitch downgrading the U.S. Long-Term Ratings, but they quickly recovered.
Highlighting tighter supply conditions, the Energy Information Administration reported that US crude inventories fell by 17 million barrels last week, marking the largest drop in US crude inventories since records dating back to 1982.
From a technical standpoint, the price of WTI continues its bullish momentum, and the long-term trend remains positive. The next challenge will be breaking the historical resistance level at $82.60 in December 2022.
​

Crypto:

According to Michael Saylor, the co-founder and former CEO of MicroStrategy, the approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs would not have any impact on the company's existing Bitcoin strategy. He believes that MicroStrategy's unique "Bitcoin operating strategy" distinguishes it from spot Bitcoin ETFs because the company can leverage its position as an operating company, unlike ETFs. Saylor sees spot ETFs as beneficial for the crypto industry as they attract institutional investors and provide liquidity.
MicroStrategy has applied with the SEC to sell up to $750 million in Class A common stock, intending to use the funds to acquire more Bitcoin and repay debts. Saylor's confidence in Bitcoin has proven to be successful, as MicroStrategy has become one of the largest holders of cryptocurrency. Since adopting Bitcoin in 2020, MicroStrategy's stock has surged by 254%, outperforming many key assets and big tech stocks.
Technically, Bitcoin came back to its last support at the 30,000 level. A breakout of this level is necessary for any sustained short-term trend. The actual price action shows a rejection of the 30,000, and a possible comeback is more probable towards first the 28,800 support and followed by the 28,000.​

 

[Zforex]

Bill Ackman's Surprise Move: Shorting Treasury Bills and Predicting Yield Rise to 5.5% - Implications for Bitcoin and Crypto Market

US INDICES:

Futures tied to the tech-heavy index and S&P 500 futures remained relatively stable. After the closing bell on Thursday, a flood of earnings reports prompted significant movements in individual stocks. Amazon's stock surged by 8.7% after surpassing profit expectations and providing positive guidance. On the other hand, Apple's stock declined around 2.3% as its revenue fell short of the year-ago quarter's results.

Apart from the major tech companies, Airbnb's stock declined due to slower growth in nights and experiences booked, disappointing Wall Street's expectations. However, DraftKings experienced a 12% increase in its stock price, exceeding analysts' predictions.

According to FactSet, around 79% of S&P 500 companies have released their results, with approximately 80% of them surpassing Wall Street's expectations during this earnings season.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones are anticipating a 200,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls for July, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.6%. Additionally, economists expect average hourly wages to rise by 0.3% from June and 4.2% on an annualized basis.

Nasdaq formed a double top and is now at its support level of 15350. A breakout may take the price down toward 15000 followed by 14000.​

USOIL:

The bank noted that Saudi Arabia warned of possible additional extensions or deeper output cuts. Russia also announced an extension of its voluntary cut into the next month but at a reduced rate of 300,000 barrels per day. These announcements were made prior to the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers. In this meeting, they will assess the impact of the ongoing production agreement.

Additionally, Russia mentioned that it would further reduce its oil exports by 300,000 barrels per day. During the same time, there was a reported drone attack on the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, a significant hub for their oil exports. However, it remained unclear if the port itself had suffered any damage.

From a technical standpoint, the price of WTI continues its bullish momentum, and the long-term trend remains positive. The next challenge will be breaking the historical resistance level at $82.60 in December 2022.​

Crypto:

Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman has surprised the financial world by shorting 30-year treasury bills and predicting yields to rise to 5.5%. He believes this move will act as a hedge against long-term rates' impact on stocks in an inflationary environment. However, not everyone agrees with his perspective, as some think his views may already be priced into the market.

The implications of this move on Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market are uncertain due to divergent opinions and the link between Bitcoin and bond yields. Here are some potential scenarios:
1. Yields Rise Significantly: If Ackman's prediction comes true and yields rise significantly, it may indicate a greater risk appetite among investors, potentially driving up Bitcoin's price. Additionally, Bitcoin could attract more investment as an inflation hedge.

2. Yields Remain Stable or Fall: Lower yields might lead investors to safer assets, potentially impacting Bitcoin's prices negatively. On the other hand, stable or falling yields could signal high liquidity conditions, potentially supporting Bitcoin's price.

3. Market Uncertainty Increases: If uncertainty rises due to fiscal policy concerns or rapid bond market repricing, Bitcoin might serve as a hedge and attract more investment. Technically, Bitcoin came back to its last support at the 30,000 level. A breakout of this level is necessary for any sustained short-term trend. The actual price action shows a rejection of the 30,000, and a possible comeback is more probable towards first the 28,800 support and followed by the 28,000.​