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[Zforex]

EUR/USD Retreats to 1.0870 Support on Dollar Strength After PPI Data
The EUR/USD pair returned to the support level around 1.0870 following dollar strength after yesterday's PPI data, confirming persistent inflation. A downward breakout could drive the price toward the next level of 1.0800 followed by 1.0700.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1100	1.1000	1.0950	1.0870	1.0800	1.0700

GBP/USD Breaks Support at 1.2800, Now at 1.2740
The GBP/USD pair breached the support level of 1.2800 and is now at 1.2740, which is the median line of the overall bullish channel. The current trend remains bullish, with the pair in the buying territory above the median line. However, another downward breakout could drive the price towards 1.2600.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3200	1.3100	1.3000	1.2800	1.2740	1.2600

USD/JPY Rebounds for Fourth Day Ahead of BOJ Meeting Next Week
The USD/JPY pair continues its recovery for the fourth consecutive day. The market is anticipating next week's Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting, which is expected to support the yen if the bank alters its monetary policy.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
152.00	149.70	148.00	146.30	145.00	144.00

Gold Exhibits Uncertainty Amid Forming Descending Triangle Pattern
Gold is showing uncertainty at the actual level where a descending triangle is forming. The next resistance level is set at 2200, with potential support identified around the 2140-45 range.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2300	2250	2200	2140-45	2088	2055-60

Oil Experiences Reversal, Correcting from Resistance at 81-82
Oil is confirming a reversal movement, currently experiencing a slight correction after reaching the resistance level at 81-82. A breakout above this level could propel the price towards the next target of 84.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
88	84	82	78	76	73

Nasdaq Range-Bound Amid Uncertainty; Potential Correction Ahead
The Nasdaq appears to be entering a price range, indicating uncertainty at the current levels. Yesterday's PPI data introduced further uncertainty, and considering next week's FOMC meeting, the market may experience a more ambiguous direction. Technically, this price action could suggest a potential correction.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
18800	18600	18400	18000	17600	17400

DAX Hits New Highs, Eyes 18,440 Amid ECB Rate Cut Expectations
The DAX is gaining momentum, achieving new peaks with 18,000 serving as the current resistance level, and aiming for the 18,440 mark next. The positive trend in European stocks is primarily driven by the widespread expectation that the ECB will reduce interest rates in June, in anticipation of a further decline in inflation towards the 2% target.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
18700	18440	18000	17600	17500	17300

 

[Zforex]

US Indices

Challenging Start for S&P 500 Futures in Q2 2024
S&P 500 futures declined on Wednesday, continuing Wall Street's challenging start to the second quarter of 2024. The release of ADP data in the morning, indicating that private payrolls in March exceeded expectations, highlighted the economy's strength. This development led to an increase in bond yields as investors' concerns about the Federal Reserve's rate cut trajectory intensified.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, predicting only one rate cut this year in the fourth quarter, joined several Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, in speaking at various events across the country on Wednesday. Their remarks add context to Tuesday’s market downturn, fueled by persistent inflation and solid manufacturing data, which suggested the Federal Reserve might delay reducing borrowing costs. Following this, the yield on the US Treasury 10-year note reached its highest point since November on Tuesday, and oil prices hit their peak since October.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq is showing early signs of price accumulation and divergence, hinting at potential resilience or a future correction should the macroeconomic outlook shift significantly.






Oil

Oil Prices Rise Due to OPEC+ Output Cuts
Oil prices are higher after a bullish US crude stocks report, and OPEC+ keeps output cuts in place, as expected. Following its monitoring committee meeting, OPEC says it welcomed the intention of Iraq and Kazakhstan to compensate for recent overproduction, and that other participating countries that have overproduced would submit compensation plans by the end of the month. Moreover, concerns about escalating conflict in the Middle East with ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure in Russia and Ukraine are further strengthening prices.
While oil prices have experienced volatility due to recent market events, their future direction hinges on sustained fundamental factors. If prevailing market conditions persist, oil prices are expected to reach the 88 level soon.







Crypto

Surge in Bitcoin ETF Outflows Influences Cryptocurrency Performance
Bitcoin ETF outflows have surged, impacting the cryptocurrency's performance due to their strong correlation with Bitcoin's price. ARK Invest and Grayscale are among those experiencing notable outflows, with ARK's 21Shares Fund recording a record $87.5 million outflow, surpassing Grayscale's $81.9 million on April 2. This marked a second day of notable outflows for both funds, with ARK's outflows notably jumping from $0.3 million to $87.5 million in a single day, a dramatic increase.
Despite these outflows, other ETFs have witnessed positive flows, with an overall net positive flow on Tuesday. Since the approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, their influence on Bitcoin's price has been predominantly positive. However, historical outflows have led to price declines, suggesting the current trend could adversely affect Bitcoin's value unless inflows remain positive, potentially leading to further drops towards the $60,000 level.

 

[Zforex]

US Indices

US Stocks Rebound Amid Earnings Season Kickoff and Market Caution
US stocks rebounded on Wednesday after the S&P 500 experienced three consecutive days of losses. The resurgence was fueled by gains in material and utility stocks, which each advanced by approximately 1%. In contrast, the real estate sector underperformed, slipping by about 0.3%.
The earnings season began on a strong note, boosting market sentiments. Although only less than 10% of S&P 500 companies have reported their earnings so far, a promising 75% have exceeded Wall Street expectations. United Airlines saw an impressive rise of over 8% after reporting a narrower-than-expected loss and outperforming revenue forecasts. Conversely, J.B. Hunt Transport Services dropped more than 7% due to not meeting analyst expectations on both revenue and earnings.
Amid these corporate results, the overall market outlook remains cautious. Investors are particularly concerned about the high interest rates and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Market volatility was evident on Tuesday following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who stated that the Fed requires more evidence of progress on inflation before considering rate cuts. These remarks did little to alleviate the prevailing market pessimism, emphasizing the role of corporate earnings in potentially driving future stock rallies.

Oil

WTI Crude Futures Extend Decline Amid Anticipation of Rising US Crude Inventories
WTI crude futures fell to $84.5 per barrel on Wednesday, continuing their downward trend for the third consecutive session. This decline comes in anticipation of a forthcoming government report that is expected to reveal an increase in US crude inventories.
Analysts predict that the upcoming report will show a rise in crude oil stocks by approximately 1.6 million barrels from the previous week. Supporting this view, recent data from the API's Weekly Statistical Bulletin indicated a significant increase in US crude oil stocks, which surged by 4.090 million barrels, following a 3.034 million barrel increase the week prior.
In the geopolitical arena, tensions remain high as the market closely monitors Israel's potential response to Iran's recent attack. Over the weekend, Iran executed a drone and missile strike, prompting Israel to promise retaliation. Meanwhile, the United States has urged caution in the escalating situation, adding another layer of complexity to global oil market dynamics.

Crypto

Bitcoin's Fourth Halving Stirs Excitement Amidst Cautionary Notes
As the cryptocurrency community gears up for Bitcoin’s fourth mining reward halving on April 20, there's palpable excitement about its potential impact on Bitcoin's price. This event will reduce the mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, halving the rate at which new bitcoins are created. Historically, such events have led to prolonged price increases.
However, a recent Goldman Sachs advisory, reported by CoinDesk, urges caution. While previous halvings have indeed triggered price surges, the details and scales of these increases varied greatly. Additionally, the current economic climate is significantly different from those of past halvings, characterized by high inflation and interest rates, which may dampen speculative enthusiasm.
Despite these cautionary notes, Bitcoin has already risen by 50% year-to-date, achieving a new high of $73,737 in March, driven by major inflows into US based spot ETFs. Some analysts believe this might lead to a "sell-the-fact" reaction post-halving.
Goldman Sachs highlights that while the halving underlines Bitcoin’s scarcity, broader market dynamics and ongoing ETF demand are likely to be more influential in driving Bitcoin's price in the medium term.

 

[Zforex]

US Indices

Tech Leaders Propel S&P 500 Futures Higher with Earnings Surge
S&P 500 futures climbed on Friday, buoyed by significant gains in major tech companies like Alphabet and Microsoft following their impressive earnings reports. Market participants also analyzed the latest US inflation data.
These advances were strengthened by the March core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, which excludes food and energy. The index rose by 2.8% year-over-year, surpassing the 2.7% forecast by Dow Jones. Additionally, personal spending increased by 0.8%, exceeding expectations of a 0.7% rise.
Alphabet's shares surged nearly 12% after the company reported earnings that exceeded expectations for the first quarter. The company also announced its inaugural dividend alongside a $70 billion buyback program. Microsoft's stock also saw a 4% increase, driven by strong fiscal third-quarter results.
The performance of these mega-cap stocks could potentially uplift the major stock averages, especially following a previous down day on Wall Street. Despite this, the major stock indexes are poised for a positive week: the S&P 500 has risen 1.6% so far, on track to end a three-week losing streak, while the Nasdaq has advanced over 2%, aiming for its first positive week in the last five.

Oil

Oil Prices Edge Up on US Economic Optimism
Crude oil prices saw a slight increase early Friday, positioning themselves to break a two-week losing streak, fueled by renewed optimism about the US economic outlook. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen indicated that the US gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the first quarter might be revised upwards, suggesting a stronger economic performance than initially reported. Additionally, Yellen mentioned that inflation is expected to decline, according to Reuters.
Furthermore, supply concerns persisted due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. Notably, despite warnings from allies about the potential for mass civilian casualties, Israel intensified its air strikes on Rafah, as reported by Reuters. These geopolitical tensions continue to play a significant role in influencing global oil markets.

Crypto

Bitcoin Holds Strong Above $64K Despite ETF Outflows
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) traded close to $64K despite increased outflows from bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). US-listed ETFs experienced a significant daily net outflow of $217 million, contributing to a weekly total of $244.49 million. Despite these outflows, Bitcoin has risen approximately 3.7% over the past seven days. JPMorgan notes that the correlation between Bitcoin ETF prices and inflows has decreased from 0.84 in January to 0.60 recently.
Cathie Wood's ARK Invest completely divested from ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) by selling 237,983 shares valued at $6.7 million from its Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW). This sale marks the end of ARK's short-term investment strategy initiated last year in anticipation of US approval for spot Bitcoin ETFs, planning to exchange them upon approval. After continuous sales starting in January, ARK disposed of its remaining BITO shares last week.
Meanwhile, the European Parliament approved stringent new regulations aimed at combating money laundering and terrorist financing. The legislation targets large cash transactions, crypto firms, and football clubs, among others. It establishes a unified rulebook for the 27 EU member states and creates an anti-money laundering authority in Frankfurt to monitor high-risk entities. The new rules mandate enhanced due diligence and reporting of suspicious activities by obligated entities like banks and asset managers.