Rosen's Daily Commentary

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Gold has been having a good start of 2017 with price up $70 from $1,149 to $1,219. The latest high came last week when Trump was officially inaugurated as the 45th President of the USA. Since then, Gold has had some troubles pushing higher and made a low at.$1,210. Price is now $1,211 and it would take a fresh touch backed by fundamentals in order for the pair to continue North.

What's somehow worrisome for the Gold bulls is that Gold has reached the prior high level at $1,220 and retraced back below it thus forming a short-term double top. As of now, the double top is confirmed and market can try to go below the support level at $1,195.

If the precious metal reaches $1,200 bulls may consider this a buying opportunity and support the price. On the other hand, a breach below that level could indicate that bears are taking control over the market.

 

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EUR/USD is trading higher today. After Trump was officially inaugurated as the 45th President the US dollar depreciated slightly against the Euro. Current market price is 1.0732 in the early European trading hours.

 

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The Sterling made an impressive rally in less than two weeks going from a low of 1.5734 to a high of 1.6618. The rally started on the day when Theresa May, Britain's Prime Minister, made the announcement to withdraw from the single EU market and leave the EU in the "hard way". The speech turned out positive for the Sterling as investors saw a future of stable and growing independent UK economy.

GBP/CAD was the pair that rallied the most out of all Pound pairs. This rally, however, might have come to a halt as price has now retreated to lower levels. The consolidation comes at a time when fundamentals are yet to reveal the near-term consequences of the policies performed by the UK government. Theresa May will be meeting with President Trump to discuss better UK-US relations in terms of trade, travel and work. These talks might create high volatility in the GBP/USD pair which can spread across various other GBP pairs.

 

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EUR/USD is trading at resistance in today's early European hours. The pair made a high of 1.0780 and is now gravitating towards the 1.0750 level. Bears have the advantage as price has reached resistance. Bulls need to go above 1.08 so that the upward trend could be confirmed.

 

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The Euro has been depreciating against its counterpart the Norwegian Krone. In the past few days the pair took a turn South and reached a low of 8.9470. Currently the pair is trading at 8.9522 and falls below the support line which rests at 8.9830.

The Euro bulls would need something strong and optimistic out of Draghi to keep them going, otherwise the single European currency is bound to fall.

EUR/NOK may find immediate support a bit lower than current level at 8.9200 which would form a fourth bottom with the last three dips to that level.

Market sentiment remains bearish for the pair with 200SMA above price as another factor contributing to devaluation of the EUR/NOK.

 

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The euro reached a high of 1.0775 against the dollar in yesterday's session and is now trading slightly below that level at 1.0750. Short-term resistance is seen at 1.08, while first support rests at 1.0720.

 

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GBP/CAD is trading to the downside in today's session after an impressive rally made in the second half of January. The pair reached a high of 1.6624 a few days ago when it started declining as the trend exhausted. Since then, the pair has not been able to continue moving North and bears reached a low of 1.6405.



Currently, price is not too far away from the lowest low indicating that it may try to reach it as a support zone and first bear target. Should this happen, GBP/CAD might test the next support level at 1.6310.



On the other hand, PM Theresa May is about to hold talks with Pres Trump on agreements on mutual trade. The talks may have positive impact on the Sterling which would drive GBP/CAD up to a possible first target at 1.6680.

 

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EUR/USD is trading to the downside today after it reached resistance at 1.0780-1.08. The pair is now 1.0690 and bears might try to bring it down below 1.06 on Trump's policy implementations.

 

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USD/JPY is in an uptrend that started in the beginning of the week and has been going on since then. The pair registered a low of 112.56 and is now trading at 115.22 with a high of 115.30. US dollar bulls are faced with the first challenge to overcome the resistance at 115.65. If that level is broken then we might see the pair try to conquer 117 and even further.

On the other hand, market participants might sell the pair at current market price thus giving enough advantage to bears to reach their short-term target at 112.50 and form a triple bottom.

Some important news that may create volatility in the pair are the USD Gross Domestic Product and the USD Durable Goods Orders.

 

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EUR/USD dipped below 1.07 yesterday and is now trading at 1.0696. The pair is on its move down and if we get positive US data later today we will see this move continue.