Rosen's Daily Commentary

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Silver has made considerable progress over the last few days going from a low of 15.61 to a high of 16.71. The asset, however, remains in bearish teritorry as Silver bulls must go through the resistance level at 16.70 or bears will take over again and push prices further down.

Silver reached a 2016 high in the beginning of July when price skyrocketed to 21.11 and then gradually started to wear off as the dollar gained strength. Expectations are for the US dollar to pick up the momentum and continue to appreciate.

Some experts even say that the move in the US dollar has not even started yet and that they expect a huge move to the upside around the time of inauguration of Donald Trump in less than two weeks.

If that is the case, then Silver along with Gold are poised to go lower. On the other hand, it takes just a spark to make precious metals go off to new highs.

 

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EUR/USD traders remains cautious in the first day of the week as price keeps trading unchanged around 1.0540. On Friday the US dollar was benefited by positive US data and that drove the price of the pair down. Now bears seem to have an edge that would give them control over the pair for the short-term.

 

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EUR/USD continues to trade relatively unchanged around the 1.06 level. Price is now 1.0561, slightly lower than yesterday's high indicating that US bulls are not yet ready to give up control over the pair.

 

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Gold registered a new high today going above $1,190 for the first time since 30 November last year. The precious metal has been gaining in price since 15 December when it reached a low of $1,123 and then started going North.

Although the asset looks clearly bullish, going long for the short-term might turn out to be a bad choice. The odds are still in favor of the US dollar as we approach the Inauguration day when Donald Trump will officially be elected as President of the United States. In light of this, markets might react excesivelly volatile without any reasoning behind it.

Best decision would be to remain cautiously optimistic and observe the turn of events with a clear head to not fall prey to the desire for quick money on news trading.

Current Gold price is trading at resistance and if bulls want to continue their rally they need to go above the psychological $1,200 in order for them to have an edge against their peers.

 

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EUR/USD is trading lower today going to 1.05. The pair is now trading at 1.0511 as uncertainty continues to be high due to the coming Inauguration of Donald Trump as POTUS.

 

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USD/JPY continues to trade sideways with price fluctuating around 116 in recent days. The pair registered a close to one year high in December reaching up to 118.66. After that high, however, bears stepped in and ended the multi-month rally that started from 98.85.

Price is now 116.09 as consolidation continues. First bull target is seen at 117.39 while first bear target is below the lowest low at 115.05.

We are only 10 days away from the Inauguration of Donald Trump and that event can cause heavy volatility in the US equity and currency market.

As to USD/JPY, traders might attempt to reach major resistance zone at 121.00. In that case, bears are expected to react and push price down.

 

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USD/CAD is trading below the long-term support and just about to touch the 200SMA. The pair broke the support level at 1.3160 and continued to the downside to reach a low of 1.3125. The low comes after the US dollar advanced to a high of 1.36 against its peer and then took a turn South.

Yesterday's speech of Donald Trump influenced the US currency market and the US dollar depreciated against its competitors. Today it seems that the move is likely to continue as there would be no major news that can change the direction of the market.

Current market price is 1.3127 and we are only some 30 points away from the 200SMA. If bears are able to push price below that level we might see selling to accelerate to potential target below 1.30.

On the other hand, the 200SMA might be used by the bulls to bounce off as a strong support level and go back above the support at 1.32.

 

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EUR/USD is now trading above 1.0630 with a high of 1.0639. The first speech of Donald Trump since July impacted the US dollar as it depreciated against all competitors. First support zone is seen at 1.0630 while first resistance is seen at 1.0660.

 

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EUR/USD is trading steadily in today's session due to lack of fresh news that can stir the market. Later today we have the Advance Retail Sales and Michigan Confidence. The events have the potential to create the outlook for market behavior for next week.

 

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AUD/USD registered a good move to the upside in the last couple of weeks going from a low 0.7159 to a high of 0.7520. The move comes after the pair has been declining in price due to the 14 year high US dollar. Even that was not enough to keep the Australian dollar bulls from taking control over the pair. The australian currency rose significantly on good economic data thus putting an end to the dominance of the Greenback.

The rise of the AUD, however, might have come to an end as the pair has reached a resistance level created by a double top that has the potential to turn the trend. AUD/USD is already lower after meeting resistance at 0.7515 and is now trading at 0.7485. Another factor that can influence the price is the 200SMA that lays at the same level of resistance.

If the pair closes the last day of the week with an inverted hammer candle it would be a good sign that we might witness further depreciation next week.