Rosen's Daily Commentary

[rosentray]

EUR/USD is trading a bit higher in today's session going as high as 1.0467. The pair is seen to consolidate towards current levels as bulls might be into correction before the price heads to parity, as analysts and experts predict for early 2017.

 

[rosentray]

Gold is seen to consolidate around $1,130 with current market price of $1,132. The precious metal has had its worst six months in years with price going from a high of $1,375 to a low below $1,130 leaving all Metal Hedge Funds and Metal investors devastated. However, those same participants might use the time to buy the dip and hold for a historical rally, should we see the Trump administration not meet expectations.

 

[rosentray]

USD/JPY has been consolidating around its highest levels since Christmas. The pair registered a high of 118.70 on Dec 15 and has been trading around that level eversince. Low volatility and low liquidity were to be expected after Christmas as market participants are away and no major news are expected to stir the market.

Traders and investors are taking a few days off to be with their families all around the world as business is put on hold. At least for a while before we start anew on Jan 1. Until then, the market is expected to trade flat with a calm US dollar.

USD/JPY can be expected to trade around 117.00-118.05 until volatility is back on stage and market is ready to take it to another level. Current market price is 117.28 in this post-Christmas calm Tuesday.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD is trading relatively unchanged since yesterday's session. The pair is now 1.0451 in a market environment that lacks volatility and liquidity. The pair is expected to keep gravitating towards current levels until New Years' Eve.

 

[rosentray]

USD/CAD is having one last big move before the year ends in a few days. In the last trading days of 2016, USD/CAD registers a move to the upsde with prices going above 1.3550. Today, the pair is trading at its highest since the beginning of the bullish move on Dec 14. The price then was 1.3080 and had just met the long-term support.

Bulls did not miss the chance to go in and back the US dollar against its counterparty. Since then, the pair has made good progress going as high as 1.3580, which is seen as immediate resistance and also a double top.

If price goes above current levels, we might see a continuation of the upward move in early 2017. On the other hand, in the past few days we are seeing a timid and somehow protective US dollar, which might spread to the USD/CAD trading also. In that case, price could retreat to lower levels with first target at 1.3350.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD is trading slightly lower today but still remains in the consolidation zone between 1.05 and 1.0390. Main trend remains bearish with current market price at 1.0435. Important events are scheduled until the end of the week that can cause some volatility in the last trading days of 2016.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD reached 1.0373 yesterday and is up sharply to a high of 1.0479. The pair is currently trading at 1.0470 as it seems that US bulls will take a break until years end. Support rests at 1.04 while resistance is seen at 1.0515.

 

[rosentray]

USD/CHF is trading lower after a few days of consolidation at its highest point above 1.0300. The pair reached a high of 1.0344 and immediately retreated to lower levels but still managed to hold above key 1.0300 level. A few days passed and price was struggling to keep the momentum.

A few times the US dollar gave in to bullish pressure going below 1.0300 but then again got back up above and has entered into consolidation that continues up to now. Main trend on the long-term remains bullish but with the decent sideways trading we might expect to reach below 1.0230.

If that happens, next bear target would be to go below 1.0100 and then parity again. On the other hand, bulls are on standby awaiting January when President-elect will be officially sworn as President of the United States. Given his powerful administration, market participants have high hopes for the future of the US equities and currency and these expectations may provide the next boost in the US dollar against its counterparts.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD sharply up in today's session due to a computer generated order that created a spike in the pair up to 1.0650. The pair is now 1.0560 in the last trading day of 2016.

 

[rosentray]

An algo trade caused the Euro to spike against its rivals in the early midnight European hours. The single curreny rose to 1.0652 against the dollar due to a trade that was designed to take advantage of the low liquidity in the markets at that time.

As a result, the most effect was felt in Gold as safe haven which climbed to a high of $1,163, USD/CHF went below 1.0050 and Silver went to 16.25.
This is the second time an algo trade has caught investors by surprise, the first time being the Sterling flash crash on 7 Oct when the Pound dived 6.1% against the dollar.

This time it was a bit lighter, however, traders were hurt as their stops were taken out during the unexpected move.

It is yet to be investigated what exactly is behind that trade, presumably the reason is a computer generated order causing a reverse flash crash.