Rosen's Daily Commentary

USD/CHF is showing strong bullish impulses that turned out to be very tough for the bears to beat. Last week the pair was impacted by the so called reverse flash crash in the euro. Then, the EUR/USD went to a high of 1.0650 and the USD/CHF slipped to 1.0050.

In light of this, right before the crash, the pair was trading at a double top which was a strong bearish signal indicating that a move to the downside is probable. The move came and the pair reached close to parity when out of nowhere the bulls stepped in and saved the day.

The pair has now recovered more than half of the decline from last week and is trading at 1.0220. If bulls manage to push the price above major resistance at 1.0330 we might see further appreciation of the US dollar.

We are just less than three weeks before Donald J Trump steps into office. This might result in high volatility in the markets due to the high expectations people have for Trump's presidency and administration.
 
EUR/USD is trading lower today after the flash crash from last week took the pair to a high of 1.0650. Price is now 1.0481 and it appears that US dollar bulls are again ready to take control over the market.
 
The US dollar is making a strong comeback in the first week of trading for 2017. The US currency is up against all competitors, most significantly against the euro, japanese yen and swiss franc.

All three pairs registered a move in favor of the US dollar in the second trading day for 2017 with slightly boring first day of trading for the year. However, today the EUR/USD went below 1.04 again, when a few days earlier it reached 1.0650. The swiss franc reached 1.0050 and is now back just a few points shy of 1.0300. And the japanese yen is yet again depreciated with price above 118 for a dollar.

All this comes as President elect Trump is about to step into office with his just formed administration full of financial and technological experts that are expected to take the US economy into the next level with more jobs created, tax cuts, spending cuts, higher rates and all that good stuff.

All this can infact be very dangerous for the US economy as this actually sets the bar really high and thus it would be very difficult to meet those expectations.
 
Gold lost what was gained in the early trading hours of the session. The precious metal reached close to $1,160 and is now back below $1,150 as bears as showing their determination to keep price at lows until Trump gets elected.
 
The EUR/USD is trading slightly unchanged since yesterday's levels. The pair continues to gravitate towards 1.04 level, currently 1.0403. Main trend on the long-term remains bearish. Volatility may remain low until Donald Trump officially steps into office.
 
USD/CHF continues its range bound trading in the early opening hours today. The pair went close to a parity last week when the flash crash took place and then climbed up again to reach a high of 1.0335 in yesterday's session. The move is still not over as the stronger US dollar once again is flexing muscles.

Partially, the stronger dollar is the effect of Trump's tweet yesterday that US manufacturers should contain their production within the borders of the United States or face high taxes. That caused Ford to cancel a $1.6B deal to manufacture in Mexico.

This move by Donald Trump was seen as a decisive and bold presidential act that got a lot of media attention. As it seems, Trump is already taking control over the economy a couple of weeks before he is officialy sworn as the President of the United States.

With this kind of determined and goal oriented measures, the President elect has a great chance to boost the US dollar into record breaking levels.
 
EUR/USD is up on release of FOMC minutes. The pair went to a high of 1.0562 on increased risk of higher pricing and uncertainty for higher inflation. Dollar is weaker as markets are unsure what the impact of current policy is going to be.
 
Gold is up with $13 overnight as dollar is trading weaker. US dollar is selling off over the last couple of days which caused the yellow metal to rally from $1,150 to a high of $1,177. Overall the long term outlook is very optimistic for the dollar with rising rates in 2017, Trump's strong administration and this would cause headwinds for the greenback and weak environment for Gold and metals overall.

That being said, the current depreciation of the dollar can be seen as a correction which helped Gold bugs to jump on in the trade to a 4 week high. EUR/USD is now at 1.0557, USD/JPY is at 116.18 and USD/CHF is gravitating towards 1.0167.

The correction is due to the release of the latest FOMC Minutes which sounded hawkish with increased risk on higher pricing and that drove market participants away from the dollar. But on Friday we get to know the latest NFP's and jobless claims and that would definitely leave an impact on market conditions.
 
EUR/USD is trading relatively unchanged today as traders are waiting on the latest NFP and jobs report later today. The pair is now 1.0603. High volatility is expected in less than 3 hours.
 
Gold continues its climb towards the psychological $1,200 level as price has peaked over 4 week high at $1,184. The precious metal is now $1,178 as Gold bugs are ready to face the US data later today.
 
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