Vantage FX Daily Market Update

[Vantage FX]

Image: Advisors Blog

Saudi/Iran Tensions Spike; A Look at OIL:
Welcome back to your trading desks for the new year, now let’s make sure it’s a good one! Well, it didn’t take long to set up a massive new spin on an old theme, did it!

Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr was executed by Saudi Arabia over the weekend, beheaded for terrorism offences along with 46 others. The execution has pushed Shia/Sunni tensions over the edge with the two sectarian powerhouses set to lock horns in more way than one. Speaking to the Iranian state news agency, the largely Shia Iranian foreign ministry spokesman, Hossein Jaber Ansari dropped this yesterday:

“The Saudi government supports terrorists and takfiri extremists, while executing and suppressing critics inside the country.”

This was followed up by a cartoon image posted on the website of the Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei, publicly questioning the difference between ISIS and Saudi Arabia.

While Sunni/Shia tensions are nothing new, the fact that tensions have so quickly escalated between the two opposing powerhouses in Saudi Arabia and Iran poses huge uncertainty for not only the OIL market, but the entire forex risk-on paradigm. The Saudi embassy in Tehran was firebombed and this morning we have seen Saudi Arabia sever all diplomatic ties with Iran, expelling Iranian diplomats from the country and giving them 48 hours to leave its borders. Watch this space…

OIL Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

With the threat of event risk resting so finely on a knife’s edge, ask yourself which side of the Oil market you see the greatest risk, and avoid trading in that direction. In this case however, it’s a little harder said than done because both sides of the market face such uncertainty. Does that risk mean higher oil prices as uncertainty over supply takes over, or will this mean that both sides pump more in an attempt to hurt the other? Take your pick!

What we can safely say, is that the daily chart is still in a huge down trend, and I still think talk of an OIL bottom in December still looks to have been too soon. The bearish trend is just too strong for me to think about any little trend line breaks, especially as this long term trend line dating back to June 2014 has been broken before and price has simply consolidated along it in the direction of the trend.

———-

Chart of the Day:
We continue our look at OIL in the first chart of the day for 2016, zooming into the 4 hour chart.

OIL 4 Hour:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

The 4 hour chart highlights the point I make about the bearish trend above, with price cleanly stepping down between both short and long term support/resistance levels.

Support break, re-test previous support as resistance, rinse and repeat.

———

On the Calendar Monday:
NZD Bank Holiday
CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI

GBP Manufacturing PMI

USD ISM Manufacturing PMI

“New Zealand banks will be closed in observance of Second New Year’s Day.”

How will the rise in Saudi/Iran tensions affect Oil? Read more in the Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre.

 

[Vantage FX]

Image: The Way of Meditation

2016 Market Pessimism:
And exhale!

We’ve only had two full trading days of 2016 and already the financial world is shrouded in pessimism. Monday’s feature story was the dramatic flare-up in tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran after sectarian issues threatened to send oil sky-rocketing.

OIL 15 Minute:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

Err, not quite.

When two powerhouses lock diplomatic horns in one of the biggest oil producing regions of the world and barely a ripple is sent through global oil markets, clearly things have changed. The oil market isn’t as reliant on the Middle East as it once was and ample supply and mass production of crude elsewhere has seen Middle Eastern geopolitical risks interpreted by markets as the isolated issues that they probably are.

How about the Chinese stock market carnage on the back of deteriorating economic data? Monday’s terrible Caixin Manufacturing PMI saw a circuit breaker hit as the Chinese stock market went limit down and panic set in.

CHINA50 15 Minute:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

Umm, nope again.

Whether markets quite have the confidence that Chinese economic issues can stay as isolated as political tensions in the Middle East is another issue, but for now the expected panic has evaporated. The fact that stocks managed to stabilise yesterday was greatly helped by the stock market regulator releasing guidelines on what will happen when a short selling ban expires on Friday. The People Bank of China also injected 130 billion Yuan into the country’s financial system, propping up the Yuan.

The moral of the story here is that things in the world happen and the financial media likes to talk about it. As traders, it is our job to take a step back and try to see things as they really are. Stay safe out there.

———-

Chart of the Day:
Okay, that’s enough looking at what happened, let’s turn our attention to the future and where some trading opportunities might be. Today’s chart of the day takes a look at one of our favourite currency crosses, Pound/Yen!

GBP/JPY Weekly:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

Zooming out to the weekly on our GBP/JPY chart, we see the obvious bullish trend broken, retested and a continuation down. It gets interesting here, because this is the first level of major horizontal support that price has encountered since the change in trend. This level has been a key reaction point in the past, with the last huge bullish rip coming off it.

We’ll be watching for a reaction from here.

———

On the Calendar Wednesday:
NZD GDT Price Index (-1.6% v 1.9% previously)
CNY Caixin Services PMI

EUR Italian Bank Holiday
GBP Services PMI

USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
CAD Trade Balance
USD Trade Balance
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

Don't let 2016 Market Pessimism cloud your trading judgement. Read more in the Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre.

 

[Vantage FX]

Image: Geek Bite

Brace Yourselves:
The bears are coming…

“USD Non-Farm Employment Change: +292K v +203K expected.”

After raising rates at the beginning of the month, for the Fed to see an excellent headline number like that must have felt good. On the surface that might have been the case, but digging a little deeper into the numbers maybe suggest that things aren’t quite as rosy as they might seem.

“USD Unemployment Rate: 5.0% v 5.0% expected.”

“USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m: 0.0% v 0.2% expected.”

Most notably the print in wages was disappointing. This was most probably down to seasonal hiring in temporary positions which obviously won’t be there come January onwards, therefore affecting the headline number.

EURUSD Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

The huge hammer on the EUR/USD is the above story shown in price, with traders buying USD on the number and then selling as the news starts to digest. Human behaviour in markets is amazing, huh!

Turning our attention to the US SP500 futures chart that we highlighted 1 week ago today, you can see that the short term channel snapped hard and price quickly had the rug pulled out from underneath it to end the week with its worst 5 day start to a year in the history of the contract. Wow.

SP500 Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

I’ve included a possible level of support to keep an eye out for through the day, drawing a simple parallel line from the major bullish weekly trend line that was broken and re-tested at the end of last year.

———-

Chart of the Day:
But what about the ASX index futures market, or the SPI200 on your Vantage FX MT4 platform? Well the locals didn’t escape lightly, ending with the worst start to a year ON RECORD. Today’s open should be interesting for the SPI, with the US lead pointing to further pain.

SPI200 Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

Taking a look at the daily chart, you can see just how brutal last week’s price action was! Price fell very nicely off a zone that had previously reacted in both directions and now is sitting at the bottom of a little consolidation range.

SPI200 Weekly:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

I’ve included the weekly chart for context, showing that the major bullish trend line is in jeopardy. On these major weekly trend lines that I talk about being subjective, I wouldn’t be looking to sell any sort of break too soon. It’s a long term bullish trend and there will definitely be buyers lurking to snap up any latecomers to the short term bearish party.

Don’t be that guy…

———

On the Calendar Monday:
JPY Bank Holiday:
Japanese banks will be closed in observance of Coming-of-Age Day.

“Coming of Age Day is a Japanese holiday held annually on the second Monday of January. It is held in order to congratulate and encourage all those who have reached the age of majority (20 years old over the past year, and to help them realize that they have become adults.”

AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m:
While today’s job advertisements data is actually only a third tier release, I have included it here as we have Australian employment data to be released on Thursday. As we head toward the end of the week, traders will be looking for clues in today’s number on which way to best position themselves.

Brace Yourselves. The Bears are Coming. Read more in the Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre.

 

[Vantage FX]

Image: Wikipedia

Daily Headline Jaw-boning:
There are two major headlines flicking through our News Terminal screens today, with the first continuing to keep China in the news and the second back with our old friend the Fed.

China:
Speaking at a briefing at the Chinese consulate in New York yesterday, this came from the deputy director of China’s office of the central leading group for financial and economic affairs, Mr Han Jun:

“Betting against the Yuan will fail and calls for a large depreciation are ridiculous as policy makers are determined to ensure the currency’s stability.”

“It is pure imagination that the Chinese Yuan will act like a wild horse without any rein.”

“Selling short the Yuan “will not succeed.”

“A decline of that magnitude is impossible.”

Oh, this is going to end well…

USD/CNH Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

Well these comments combined with a higher midpoint at yesterday’s fix did help temporarily halt the currency’s rapid depreciation against the US Dollar. With USD/CNH starting to go a little parabolic, the pull-back also coincided with the top of projected channel resistance after running parallels from the bullish trend line that we already have in place.

The real question becomes how long can intervention and jaw-boning continue to fight the market tide?

Atlanta Fed’s Lockhart

Speaking at the Rotary Club of Atlanta in Georgia, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart spooked the market with some dovish comments of his own, including:

“How much will we know about inflation trends or inflation developments going into the mid-March meeting? We will have some data but not a great deal more.”

You can read the full speech on the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta website, but this is the section that has traders talking. Whether it’s actually anything new, I’ll let you make up your own mind.

———-

Chart of the Day:
To be quite honest, I’m sick about talking about healthy stock market pull-backs as catastrophes, and want to get back to some bread and butter Forex charts sitting at quality levels to manage your risk around.

GBP/USD Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

Flicking through the Forex majors and the Cable daily chart was the one to catch my eye. Price tested and chopped through its previous swing lows from back in April 2015, now sitting just below the level.

I’m inclined to lean to playing this chart from the long side, treating the choppy break of support as confirmation that the level isn’t black and white and actually more of a weekly support zone which we are only just heading into. The fact that price hasn’t cleanly broken the level makes me think that the weak stops below the level were cleaned out and now we’ll get a chance to use it as place to buy on any re-test.

Are you trading Cable? Share a chart and idea with @VantageFX on Twitter.

———

On the Calendar Tuesday:
JPY Current Account

GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks

GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks

Get your dose of Forex Jaw-boning. Read more in the Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre.

 

[Vantage FX]

Image: Temple Square

When to get Contrarian?:
With the Chinese onshore RMB fix still the big Asian session focus, the fact that yesterday’s number came in 200 points below expectation was huge. Chinese authorities are flexing their muscles and showing they have very deep pockets in a bid to prove that the market is able to trade in both directions.

This was all about discouraging traders from shorting the offshore currency. By increasing borrowing costs to astronomical levels, the PBOC intends to squeeze out the shorts with this huge reversal that you can see on the following chart:

USD/CNH Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

Price has found some support at previously broken resistance… but on second thoughts, this probably isn’t the best time to be fading!

Moving onto OIL and the doom and gloom headlines from the major investment banks just keep on rolling through our screens! Morgan Stanley, Goldman, Deutsche et al all giving worst case scenarios well below current price.

The WTI OIL price traded with a $20 handle for the first time since 2003, with the CAD following its every move almost pip for pip.

OIL 15 Minute:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

———-

Chart of the Day:
The Loonie continued its parabolic, upward trajectory as it reached its highest level since 2003.

USD/CAD Weekly:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

So with all this clear blue sky, where do we look for technical levels? Turn off auto-scroll on your MT4 platform and scroll back in time on the weekly chart.

Look at the zone that price happens to be sitting inside right now.

USD/CAD Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

But hey, as RBS says…

“Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small.”

Could you have gotten a bigger contrarian signal?

———

On the Calendar Wednesday:
CNY Trade Balance

USD Crude Oil Inventories

Are you a contrarian Forex trader? Read more in the Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre.

 

[Vantage FX]

Image: Illawarra Mercury

Australian Employment Data: Why it Can’t be Trusted & Why it Doesn’t Matter:
Here we are again on the morning of one of the most highly anticipated data releases on the Australian economic calendar, employment data day!

“AUD Employment Change: -11.0K expected, 71.4K previously.”

“AUD Unemployment Rate 5.9% expected, 5.8% previously.”

It’s just too bad that the actual headline numbers have basically become the laughing stock of the trading community with nobody… and I mean nobody, trusting what the ABS releases. I like to use the ‘random number generator spin’ joke when the Chinese government releases their data from time to time, but really should be looking closer to home for this one.

A day after the laughing stock that was December’s number (+71.4K v the -10.0K expected), I tried to answer why the Australian employment data can’t be correct:

“1/8th of the 26,000 households surveyed each month by the Bureau of Statistics must be rotated from time to time. It is the fact that the newly surveyed households are sometimes very different to the old ones surveyed which is being blamed for the occasional jumpy nature of Australian unemployment data.”

And once again I’ll repeat that the fact the numbers are right or wrong, doesn’t actually matter to us as Forex traders. The only thing that matters is price and the perception of where traders think price should be. Just remember that if you’re trading around an obviously insane number.

———-

Chart of the Day:
Leading into the Aussie employment data, we have to take a look at the AUD/USD chart. Just keep in mind the big picture with our old friend the weekly trend line support is still in play.

AUD/USD Hourly:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

But it’s the hourly that I wanted to focus on today, with price forming a short term bullish channel following the pair’s solid beat down that it has experienced all of January.

With price teetering on the brink at support, we’re set up nicely for the 11.30am Sydney time employment data release. Are you trading the AUD/USD channel into the release or waiting for the dust to settle?

———

On the Calendar Thursday:
AUD Employment Change
AUD Unemployment Rate

GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
GBP Monetary Policy Summary
GBP Official Bank Rate
USD Unemployment Claims

Does Australian employment data matter? Read more in the Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre.

 

[Vantage FX]

Image: In Homeland Security

Friday Optimism:
Another day and another terrorist attack that doesn’t even cause a blip in markets. Welcome to 2016!

But hey, how about we keep the tone reflecting US stocks last night and be a little more upbeat to end the week. Remember in Wednesday’s when to get contrarian blog, we talked about the click bait headline from RBS telling us to sell everything?

“Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small.”

Well Wednesday saw Australian economist Stephen ‘the Kouk’ Koukoulas throw down a $10K challenge (AUD, probably just to be safe) to the RBS analyst that wrote the bearish note. The Kouk has outlined 11 markets that RBS analyst Andrew Roberts has recommended liquidating EVERYTHING in. So confident in the outlandish statement from Roberts, the Kouk has offered the generous terms of only needing 6 of the 11 markets to close lower by December 31 2016 to win the bet and ‘profit’ on his call.

Roberts hasn’t yet publicly accepted or rejected the bet and this saddens me.

Bank of England:
UK interest rates were overnight left on hold by the Bank of England again at 0.5%. It seems a long time ago now that the Bank of England was set to follow the Fed and begin a fresh round of hikes. We’re still quite a way off that yet.

The votes to leave rates unchanged were 1-0-8 (increase-decrease-hold) as expected.

GBP/USD Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

Even with Cable getting Pounded (see what I did there?), I’m still looking for a bounce now that stops below swing lows have been cleared out and price is slowing into a buy zone on the weekly chart.

“All members agreed that, given the likely persistence of the headwinds weighing on the economy, when Bank rate does begin to rise, it is expected to do so only gradually and to a level lower than in recent cycles.”

What are your thoughts on Cable from here? Are you expecting a bounce?

———-

Chart of the Day:
And there it is. The very first note that passes across my desk this morning runs the headline ‘Oil bears retreat’.

OIL Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

Just look at that daily candle. Put the bear tanks away, the bulls are in control now!

No.

Other than the non-existent cheap petrol at the pump, the storyline you need to be following here is that low oil prices are heaping pressure on the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Overnight saw known Hawk, Fed Bank of St Louis president James Bullard, answering questions on inflation with not so excitable answers.

“With renewed declines in crude oil prices in recent weeks, the associated decline in market-based inflation expectations measures is becoming worrisome.”

———

On the Calendar Friday:
AUD Home Loans m/m

USD Core Retail Sales m/m
USD PPI m/m
USD Retail Sales m/m
USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Just remember that if you’re holding positions over the weekend, Monday is Martin Luther King Day in the US.

Need some Friday optimism? Trading the BoE? Read more in the Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre.

 

[Vantage FX]

Image: Grad School Jungle

Chinese Data Dump: In Which Direction Does the Market See the Greatest Risk?:
The US Martin Luther King Day saw holiday trading conditions continue today, with North American traders enjoying the rest of their day off and Asian traders coping with the liquidity vacuum that has been left.

Today’s Asian session is all about the Chinese data dump and whether the PBOC feel they can afford to print a number that could send both domestic and world markets into a nosedive. With every major stock index sitting precariously on trend line support, today’s data is setting up as a real make or break release.

DAX30 Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

With the US market closed, European markets had a relatively quiet start to the week. Something that isn’t expected to last long! Keep your eye on the Technical Analysis section of the Vantage FX News Centre following today’s Chinese data release as we take a deeper look at just how perilously close almost all stock markets are sitting from some BIG technical break-outs.

But for now we focus our attention back to China and the obvious slump in growth being experienced. This has been known for some time and the risks associated with the slowdown have been modestly priced into markets over the last couple of months. The expected Chinese GDP print of 6.9% would see the emerging economy experiencing the slowest rate of growth since 1990 with economists predicting this trend to continue throughout 2016 and beyond.

Following the tier 1 releases of GDP and Industrial Production, we get tier 2 Fixed Asset Investment data and a NBS Press Conference which will shed light on the PBOC’s plan heading forward. Something that nobody is convinced that they have!

AUD/USD Hourly:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

With no major US data releases on the calendar to start the week, the majors have been mixed. The Aussie will obviously have some of the biggest exposure to event risk around today’s Chinese numbers and its position at the upper end of a bearish hourly channel highlights just how much damage a worse than expected number could easily inflict from a technical standpoint.

———-

Chart of the Day:
The Kiwi is in the same boat as its big brother across the ditch, sitting even closer to hourly trend line resistance

NZD/USD Hourly:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

Heading into major data releases, the charts always tell the story of where the greater risk lies if the release misses expectations. As a trader, your number 1 job is to manage this risk.

I’ve made it pretty clear that I see the biggest risk being a miss to the downside, with a lack of support to halt any technical drops in both the Aussie and Kiwi.

In which direction do you see the greatest risk?

———

On the Calendar Tuesday:
CNY GDP q/y
CNY Industrial Production y/y
CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y
CNY NBS Press Conference

GBP CPI y/y
EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment

How to trade the Chinese data? Read more in the Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre.

 

[Vantage FX]

Image: Mashable

More Chinese Stimulus on the Way?:
With Chinese GDP coming in at an expected 6.9%, the emerging economy officially grew at the slowest pace since 1990. That is a 25 year low and opens up fresh expectations of new rounds of economic stimulus from the PBOC.

AUD/USD initially dropped on the headline, but soon realised that when you’re dealing with a planned economy like China, there is no such thing as a growth concern. With fresh stimulus surely not far away, the Aussie got a kick and US/European equities followed (at least to some extent) throughout the night.

AUD/USD 15 Minute:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

New Zealand CPI:






This -0.5% CPI drop was the equal largest since 1998. That sort of a miss will generally give you quite the lunge down and that’s exactly what we see in the above gif in the seconds after the release on the Vantage FX MT4 platform.

Talk of further cuts by the RBNZ at next week’s meeting have already begun.

NZD/USD Hourly:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

We were following some AUD/USD and NZD/USD channels yesterday and as I publish this blog, the Kiwi has moved back inside the channel as price continues to fall.

Just another example where following a trend line breakout, you more often than not just get consolidation rather than the sustained textbook follow through. Price has once again re-activated the original trend line level as resistance and I now look for it to just hug the line in the direction of the original trend.

IMF Update:
Finally, yesterday saw the release of growth forecast numbers by the International Monetary Fund.

The IMF cut its global growth forecast for the third time in less than 12 months, slashing it down 0.2%. Reasons cited by the IMF were an outlook clouded by risks around a strong USD, commodity price uncertainty and Chinese growth concerns.

Read the full IMF World Economic Outlook Update here.

———-

Chart of the Day:
Whether you are a day or swing trader, higher time frame levels are a must have on your charts. We’ve been following this EUR/GBP Channel and the range it had formed at support.

EUR/GBP Weekly:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

As you can see on the updated weekly chart, the range top and bottom gave you 2 chances to trade the levels (in both direction) before the upside breakout finally came.

EUR/GBP Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

Stepping into the daily chart, you can see that following the breakout, price really hasn’t looked back. But things get interesting for the pair again now as we head to this resistance zone that has had plenty of touches in the past.

I like 2 things:
– Moves off the level have been immediate and BIG.
– The zone is tight enough to easily manage your risk around.

Do you see opportunity trading EUR/GBP?

 

[Vantage FX]

Image: Washington Post

BoC Holds:
The Bank of Canada held interest rates steady at 0.5% last night. After cutting rates twice in 2015 and huge uncertainties around commodity prices and sagging economic growth off the back of them, this decision polarised both economist opinion and markets themselves.

“All things considered, therefore, the risks to the profile for inflation are roughly balanced. Meanwhile, financial vulnerabilities continue to edge higher, as expected. The Bank’s Governing Council judges that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.”

Taking a look at the 5 minute USD/CAD chart over the decision, the immediate drop shows that markets had overly priced in another rate cut.

USD/CAD 5 Minute:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

The gap was subsequently filled, but the confident tone in the accompanying statement from the ‘Banque Du Canada‘ saw the CAD end the day well on top.

With new Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau expected to unleash massive fiscal spending, the BoC was happy to take the conservative route.

USD/CAD Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

Who’s willing to put their hand up first that they’re looking for a return to the mean on the USD/CAD daily chart?

Stocks on the Brink:
Overnight we saw the SP500 index fall 1.2%, to close at its lowest level since April 2014…






Let me share some of my favourite lines from morning notes that pass my desk in relation to the US stock market overnight:

“Traders saw capitulation day.”

“This was the flush out in equities.”

“What you saw here was an oversold market.”

Look at the charts in the section below and then you tell me if you agree with any of that?

———-

Chart of the Day:
In the Technical Analysis section of the Vantage FX News Centre on Tuesday, we took a look at major trend line support across Indices. With the expectation that the US market will somewhat lead the rest, we feature last night’s SP500 price action in today’s chart of the day.

SP500 Weekly:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

It’s a little funny saying this after only 2 days of price action, but the weekly chart gives the clearest picture of last night’s lunge down in stocks. But look at where the selling was halted.

SP500 Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

Zooming into the daily and the start of 2016 has just been vertical… Look at the way that the above marked zone soaks up the sellers and has bounced hard each time. How many touches on a level like this is too many touches?

Once this major trend line goes, the similar line across all of the Indices we have been watching will go with it and things are going to get messy.

‘Capitulation Day’ will make a nice headline one day soon, but last night wasn’t it.

———

On the Calendar Thursday:
AUD MI Inflation Expectations

EUR Minimum Bid Rate
USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
USD Unemployment Claims
USD Crude Oil Inventories

Do you think stocks are ready to bounce back from the brink?