Vantage FX Daily Market Update

[Vantage FX]

Image: USA Today

NFP Touchdown:
Friday’s NFP number out of the US missed market expectations, but combined with a lift in Average Earnings and a fall in the Unemployment Rate, the miss was not enough to dampen a USD rally as the market re-priced itself on some much needed positive news.

“USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m (0.5% v 0.3% expected)”

“USD Non-Farm Employment Change (151K v 189K expected)”

“USD Unemployment Rate (4.9% v 5.0% expected)”

As we spoke about last Friday, the market got its jump in Average Hourly Earnings (the biggest increase since 2009 mind you) and pounced all over it with the expectation that the Fed will use the figure in future rhetoric as we head toward lift-off number two.

EUR/USD 4 Hourly:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

Following the triangle breakout, we have been watching EUR/USD price action. As a continuation to last Thursday’s chart of the day, we have here zoomed into the 4 hour Fiber chart to show just how bullish USD (bearish EUR) that Friday’s news spike was.

After getting a little vertical, NFP soon stopped price in its tracks and the pullback has come. What’s most interesting is where price has paused, right back into a short term area of consolidation, giving any savvy bulls a chance to take some pips.

Is this a healthy pullback? Are shorts still trapped from the triangle break? Was the news enough to shift market sentiment? These are all questions you need to ask yourself and that we will be discussing on both the Forex News Centre and @VantageFX Twitter as we head into the week.

———-

Chart of the Day:
Our last technical analysis post on trading gold was all the way back in November 2015.

Back then, we compared the gold and silver charts to try to find the best opportunity to use the levels in play to manage our risk around. Following that post, price faked lower, before a shift in fundamental market conditions has seen gold catch a bid and rally off its lows.

XAU/USD Weekly:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

The weekly chart highlights the horizontal support zone that price has been playing with on either side for years. For clarity here, I have left only the single red line on the chart, being the top of the zone I had marked back in November.

XAU/USD Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

Zooming into the daily is where things start to get interesting. The previously broken flag/bullish channel pattern is back in play, this time using the underside of the level to mark possible resistance.

Will gold’s recent rally be halted here?

———

On the Calendar Monday:
NZD Bank Holiday
CNY Bank Holiday
JPY Current Account

CAD Building Permits m/m
CAD Gov Council Member Lane Speaks

“Waitangi Day (named after Waitangi, where the Treaty of Waitangi was signed) commemorates the signing of the Treaty of Waitangi, New Zealand’s founding document, on that date in 1840.”

“Chinese New Year is an important Chinese festival celebrated at the turn of the traditional lunisolar Chinese calendar.”

Do you see opportunity trading gold? Take advantage on your free $50,000 Forex demo account.

Dane Williams – @VantageFX

Daily FX, Gold & Equity updates at Vantage FX

 

[Vantage FX]

Tremoring Tuesday:
Here we were thinking that with China on holidays all week and a relatively light calendar in terms of event risk that could cause a major repricing in the market, that we’d be able to cruise through the week without any dramas. Ha!

But just how dire are things looking? Surely not as dire as our friends over at CNBC are reporting?



We know that @StockCats loves a daily dose of market doom and gloom so I couldn’t go past including his Tweet in this morning’s blog. Sums up my thoughts exactly. Don’t get sucked into the gloom of a daily sensationalist news cycle when it comes to markets! It was just a down day.

With traders looking for the ‘safety’ of Gold (the answer to yesterday’s XAU/USD chart of the day question was a very solid no) and Bonds, those assets fared very well indeed. Gold lows seem a distant memory, while bond yields (inverse to price) hit their lowest in 12 months in the US T-Note and German Bund.

I’m not in the office until later this afternoon so only a small overview. We’ll go through some more charts on the @VantageFX Twitter later.

———-

Chart of the Day:
A follow on to yesterday’s XAU/USD chart of the day with a high level look showing what we spoke about above.

XAU/USD Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

With price almost not having a single down day since December, price is up around $150 off its lows.

Like yesterday, my trading style would normally be to look for levels to start fading around, but that is just not a smart thing to do in these sorts of market conditions. Trading is about being adaptable and for me, that means identifying momentum and not letting myself jump out in front of the moving train that is price.

———

On the Calendar Tuesday:
CNY Bank Holiday
AUD NAB Business Confidence

GBP Trade Balance

USD JOLTS Job Openings

Expecting another fairly quiet news day with China on holiday all week for Lunar New Year celebrations and the rest of the data on the calendar today second tier.

Do you see opportunity trading commodities? Take advantage on your free $50,000 Forex demo account.

Dane Williams – @VantageFX

Check out Vantage FX news for commodities, forex & everything trading

 

[Vantage FX]

Following the BoJ’s negative rates decision, how content Kuroda and his men must have been as the Yen instantly repriced itself and weakened considerably.

Image: Twitter

“Job done!”

Okay that might have been using a bit too much journalistic license but either way, the point is that they would have been VERY happy with where the Yen was headed following their shock announcement.

Fast forward just a week later and carnage has hit Japanese markets as the Yen goes gang-busters against the USD, sending Japan’s major stock index the Nikkei225 down with it.

Let’s take a look at some charts, starting with the USD/JPY weekly chart. I always like to include the weekly charts for context when I speak about levels on these sorts of posts. While maybe not as fashionable, the importance of the higher time frame charts cannot be stressed enough. You don’t believe me? Check out the price action we have here:

USD/JPY Weekly:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

As you can see, price has had a MASSIVE bullish run. You don’t need to be a technical analysis genius to see that the chart is steep and sloping up. The bulls have been well and truly in control of this market since as far back as 2012.

We’ve spoken about the subjective nature of long term trend lines on the blog before and this is a perfect example of this fact. What I mean by this is that the longer the trend line runs, the more chance that other traders who are watching the level will have drawn it slightly different. Any difference in the way its drawn in the past will be magnified as time goes on and this is where you get half of traders telling you that the line has broken while the other half will tell you it is holding!

For this reason, I’m never going to be looking at these longer term lines as hard levels and instead treat them as zones for reference.

USD/JPY Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

Stepping down to the USD/JPY daily chart and you can see that the rally that negative interest rates gave, was actually back into the underside of the trend line zone. From that day it has been nothing but carnage for the pair, dropping like a stone off the technical re-test of previous support as resistance and Kuroda is certainly no longer laughing.

This is from today’s Reuters article that we shared on the @VantageFX Twitter account:

“Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso warned on Tuesday against a recent rise in the yen, describing the moves as “rough”, a sign that policymakers are concerned the currency’s gains may offset the positive effects from “Abenomics” stimulus policy.”

Image: Twitter

“S**t!”

No journalistic license needed on what would have been said after today’s trading session. Maybe lost in translation…

Will central banks ever learn that you can’t fight the free market? Over and over and over again we see the same scenarios playing out across almost all central banks worldwide. As traders, we get the rally on initial stimulus or jaw-boning headlines and then we get the huge fall as the market takes back control of price.

This wasn’t the first and wont be the last. Be on it next time.

This technical analysis post was a follow on from the chart of the day section of last Monday’s post Bank of Japan morning blog. Do you see opportunity trading Japanese markets? Take advantage of moves on the MT4 platform via both Forex and Indices markets.

Dane Williams – @VantageFX

More on BOJ, negative rates at Vantage Fx

 

[Vantage FX]

Image: YouTube

Stock Market Enigma:

“It all has a 2008 global crisis feel about it, without the underlying causes. Shares in the big four local banks fell by a surreal 4 per cent to 5.2 per cent on Tuesday.”

This extract from the Sydney Morning Herald’s Malcolm Maiden this morning resonated with me. It’s been like a slow moving train that you can see in the distance while you just stand still on the tracks watching the light getting closer and closer.

The other major eye catcher this morning was @Renegade_Inc’s table on Twitter which focuses on the stock price of the major US and EU banks through 2016. 25% down average across the board in barely a month?

Image: Twitter: Renegade_Inc

Eye catching indeed!

So we’re hearing all this talk about bargain hunters looking for value after a sell off in stocks. But no matter what your long only stocks financial advisor will tell you, just because the market goes down a bit doesn’t automatically mean that there is value and it’s a good time to buy.

I don’t want to repeat myself every day but so long as the headlines are talking about ‘value’ in stocks, I have to keep posting this weekly S&P 500 chart and the major trend line support across Indices idea that we’ve been stalking.

S&P 500 Weekly:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

As long as that weekly trend line is holding, then normal bullish service should continue across ALL Indices.

S&P 500 Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

The daily chart shows price action at the lows a lot clearer with lows and trend line support continuing to hold up.

BUT. What happens when this level goes? Talking about buying at index trend line support sounds like a good strategy in theory. But the threat of a huge snap is why I’m so wary of talking about ‘value’ up here.

Stops, stops, stops!

———-

Chart of the Day:
Yesterday’s look at USD/JPY originally was to include the Nikkei225, but I got too carried away on the Forex side so decided to split it into today’s chart of the day.

Nikkei 225 Weekly:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

The US market leading other markets is highlighted by price action in Japanese stocks with the Japanese fundamental shift wanting to break the Nikkei, but just not being able to do so.

Nikkei 225 Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

The daily again shows the lows being broken, but long wicks showing that buyers aren’t ready to give up the level yet. You can do the same thing across all of the major stock indexes. It’s all about that level in the S&P 500.

———

On the Calendar Wednesday:
CNY Bank Holiday
AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m

GBP Manufacturing Production m/m

USD Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
USD Crude Oil Inventories

Do you see opportunity trading Indices? Take advantage on your $50,000 free Forex demo account.

Dane Williams – @VantageFX

Look to Vantage FX for regular updates on global equities & forex

 

[Vantage FX]

Image: YouTube

Yellen and the Fed Assessing Risk:
Testifying on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington DC, Janet Yellen more than suggested that the balance of risks that confront the US economy are further shifting for the worse.

Of course it was only December, barely 2 months ago that the Fed raised its short term interest rates off zero, hoping to signal the beginning of a new rate raising cycle and return to the normalisation of monetary policy. Yellen described risks to the economy as balanced and that prospects for economic growth outweighed the negative risks surrounding raising rates too early.

But what a 2 months it has been. From January 1 onward, it has been day after day of problems, with the Yellen soon changing her rhetoric from ‘balanced’ and ‘positive outlook’, to ‘not being able to make a judgement in light of hard-to-discern global developments’.

“Financial conditions in the United States have recently become less supportive of growth, with declines in broad measures of equity prices, higher borrowing rates for riskier borrowers, and a further appreciation of the dollar.”

“These developments, if they persist, could weigh on the outlook for economic activity and the labour market, although declines in longer-term interest rates and oil prices provide some offset.”

It really is amazing to think that in such a short amount of time, the Fed can (be forced to?) change their mind so easily. We were talking about four more rate increases in 2016. FOUR! Now it is looking as though we’re not even going to get one, with bond market futures pricing only a 30% chance of the one hike in December.

In searching for a positive to balance out the negative sentiment in the blog, last Friday’s NFP result, including the drop in the unemployment rate and an increase in wages are still huge domestic positives for the Fed to grasp with both hands.

“Ongoing employment gains and faster wage growth should support the growth of real incomes and therefore consumer spending.”

SP500 Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

EUR/USD Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

As you were.

———-

Chart of the Day:
Yellen was also quite upbeat on the state of oil markets and their effect on the economy was likely to be ‘transitory’.

OIL Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

With a new low in Oil, that’s nearly 6 months of no higher highs. In that 6 months, how many headlines have we had on single, bullish daily candles that Oil is recovering? Too many!

Oil is firmly in a bear market until it’s not!

———

On the Calendar Thursday:
JPY Bank Holiday
CNY Bank Holiday

USD Unemployment Claims
USD Fed Chair Yellen Testifies

“National Foundation Day is a national holiday in Japan celebrated annually on February 11, celebrating the foundation of Japan and the accession of its first emperor, Jimmu.”

Do you see opportunity trading WTI? Take advantage on your $50,000 demo Forex account.

Dane Williams – @VantageFX

Regular updates on Oil and the FED at Vantage FX

 

[Vantage FX]

Image: Guardian

Friday Night, Game On!:
With all major markets sitting at key levels, it’s game day. Oil, US stocks, The Yen etc etc. Every chart I flick through on my Vantage FX MT4 platform seems to be sitting at some sort of major make or break, higher time-frame level.

As we spoke about yesterday on the @VantageFX Twitter account, USD/JPY approached and then broke through major weekly trend line support.








There are obviously a few different ways to draw this trend line which makes it a little iffy, but the fact that the lower time frame price action respected the level on both sides of it, tells us that either way it carries some significance.

Getting back to the present and we can see that price has gone through weekly support, but is clinging on for dear life.

USD/JPY Weekly:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

USD/JPY Hourly:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

Zoom into the hourly and we see it’s showing a break-out and re-test… but this isn’t a break-out and re-test. It’s the Asian session, there is no momentum following the break-out and I’m expecting some consolidation until the US session tonight. Don’t get sucked in!

So… Is this the day that all hell breaks loose in Indices markets? We’ve talked about expecting the S&P 500 to lead other markets and we’re now at a major tipping point.

S&P 500 Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

Another new low on stocks last night, but another fake-out with the daily candle closing with a huge wick once again bouncing out of support.

S&P 500 Hourly:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

As for the trend line when you zoom into the hourly chart, once again I’m taking it with a grain of salt. Remember that it’s a weekly trend line starting as far back as 2009, so once you zoom in through the different lower time frames, the candles are never going to line up exactly. I’ve included it because it’s there, and that’s all.

While the trend line isn’t really tradable, there is no denying test after test of the horizontal support zone that is weakening each time.

Friday night and it’s game on.

———

On the Calendar Friday:
AUD RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
CNY Bank Holiday

EUR German Prelim GDP q/q

USD Core Retail Sales m/m
USD Retail Sales m/m
USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Do you see opportunity trading the S&P 500? Take advantage on your $50,000 Forex demo account.

Dane Williams – @VantageFX

More on JPY, Oil & stocks at Vantage FX

 

[Vantage FX]

Image: QZ

Stocks Battle Out Bore Draw:

“How many times can you buy support before you get burned?”

SP500 Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

Well, it would seem at least once more…

I had high expectations for breakouts across Indices markets on Friday, but with strength coming out of the S&P 500 support level in the chart above, it just wasn’t to be.

With US markets closed tonight for Presidents Day, tonight isn’t the night. I set the week up for a big finale to the major trend line support across indices narrative that I’ve been running on the blog, and it just didn’t happen. Take a deep breath and respect the major levels.

Speaking of not respecting levels, Chinese markets will open Monday after a week long holiday in celebration of the Lunar New Year. Markets are bracing for what’s being described as a ‘catch up sell off’ on the open, as China will most likely be forced to follow it’s Asian market counterparts down.

The Nikkei’s fall has been well publicised, slumping 11% last week, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (who only received a 3 day break) dropped nearly 4%. The volatility dynamic that Chinese stocks bring to world Indices could well be the key that we’ve been waiting to have turned.

Another story to watch as China comes back online this week is the depreciation of the Yuan. Governor of the People’s Bank of China Zhou Xiaochuan, has printed headlines as we move toward the re-open with the following comments:

“There’s no basis for continued depreciation of the yuan because the balance of payments is good, capital outflows are normal and the exchange rate is basically stable against a basket of currencies.”

With foreign exchange reserves shrinking according to Bloomberg, this is the PBOC reassuring us that they are in no way ready to give up on defending the currency with a bit of jaw-boning with the aim of stability.

———-

Chart of the Day:
USD/CNH Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

The offshore USD/CNH chart is a wild one, but the drop out of the parallel channel top shows that the market respects technical zones as well as any of the Forex pairs on the Vantage FX MT4 platform.

With price heading back to channel support, how do you see the above comments from Zhou Xiaochuan affecting the pair?

———

On the Calendar Monday:
JPY Prelim GDP q/q
CNY Trade Balance

USD Bank Holiday
EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks

“Washington’s Birthday is a United States federal holiday celebrated on the third Monday of February, meaning it can occur the 15th through the 21st inclusive, in honour of George Washington, the first President of the United States, who was born on February 22, 1732.

Colloquially, it is widely known as Presidents Day and is often an occasion to remember all the presidents. The term “Presidents Day” was coined in a deliberate attempt to change the holiday into one honouring multiple presidents.“

Do you see opportunity trading Chinese markets? Take advantage on your $50,000 Forex demoaccount.

Dane Williams – @VantageFX

All the latest on China, Equities and Forex at Vantage FX

 

[Vantage FX]

Image: mafab.hu

Stocks and Gold:
Will markets and traders ever learn?

The lead paragraph on the major markets Guardian article today was as follows:

“Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, has helped calm jittery financial markets by saying he would not hesitate to take fresh action to boost eurozone growth and inflation.”

Hmm, where have we heard that before…?

Mario Draghi and the ECB are the markets definition of the boy who cried wolf! Over and over the same scenario plays out. Mario Draghi gives markets the ‘whatever it takes‘ spiel and then when the time comes, fails to deliver.

With Draghi’s aim being to calm fears of a stock market crash, I find it interesting that his jawbone has pushed price to re-test previously broken resistance on the German DAX:

DAX30 Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

With price stepping down in a very technical fashion, the way traders interpret what Draghi can or will actually deliver is key. Taking into account his track record, price is suggesting that the confidence isn’t quite there and as traders, for us price is NEVER wrong. Indices are still majorly in play for me.

It is however from these stock market and central bank driven jitters that we have seen such a strong rally in Gold. Fear has markets pricing out expectations of any more US interest rate hikes this calendar year and that money has been flooding into the relative safe haven that is Gold.

———-

Chart of the Day:
On the @VantageFX Twitter account we have been having an ad hoc look at Gold which had been coming into a confluence of resistance on the daily chart.

XAU/USD Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

Last night’s price action confirmed the rejection, with the bears taking back control with a huge move back down off the level.

This got me thinking and after seeing this interesting Gold chart on Twitter from @mikeharrisNYearlier in the week, I wanted to give the idea a run as today’s secondary chart of the day:

XAU/USD Weekly:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

The chart shows that while the move has been majorly bullish over the last few weeks and we’ve started to do some technical damage to the bearish trend (for all its own headlines, something that oil hasn’t been able to do mind you), the past tells us that it might not be as certain as you might think.

You can see the last time we broke out of a major weekly bearish trend at the first ‘x’, price didn’t manage to sustain the move. Instead price continued in the direction of the original trend, consolidating in sideways trade. This sort of price action happens so often when price attempts to break out of a strong trend. It traps traders trying to jump the gun and pick bottoms, in this case giving the smart money a chance to sell a pull-back and add to their short positions.

What are your expectations from here? With Stocks at major support and Gold at major resistance, how are you setting yourself up to take advantage of any impending moves? Leave a comment at the bottom of this blog or give @VantageFX a mention on Twitter.

———

On the Calendar Tuesday:
NZD Retail Sales q/q
NZD Core Retail Sales q/q
AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
NZD Inflation Expectations q/q

EUR German Constitutional Court Ruling
GBP CPI y/y

EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment
CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m
NZD GDT Price Index

Dane Williams – @VantageFX
https://www.vantagefx.com/news-centre/marketwrap/stocks-and-gold/
Latest Gold & Forex technicals at Vantage FX

 

[Vantage FX]

Image: Thousand Wonders

Oil: First Steps Taken Toward a Coordinated Supply Effort:
With futures markets now completely pricing out any chance of a rate hike from the Fed for the entirety of 2016, tomorrow’s FOMC Minutes are expected to sound dovish in the wake of continued equity weakness.

As traders, we always have to think about market expectations and where the greatest risk comes from if expectations aren’t quite met. This would obviously be any rhetoric stating that the Fed plan to go full steam ahead with further rate increases. This just isn’t going to happen, but the risk is skewed to anything interpreted as hawkish. ANYTHING else is going to see the USD sell off and that’s what I’d be more inclined to position for.

Fed headlines did however take a back seat last night to OPEC’s decision to freeze Oil production. Oil producing nations have quite frankly had enough of lower prices and are FINALLY starting to coordinate to cement the $25.00 level as a longer term low. This coordinated move, while still not including Iran, is highly significant because it is a step away from the internal bickering that has seen nobody want to make the first move in cutting supply. Saudi Arabia has said many times that while they want to cut supply, by doing so they would only be reducing their own market share while no material impact would be felt to price.

While markets haven’t reacted as positively as one may expect, the fact that a coordinated process has begun is hugely significant to the future direction of Oil and something well worth taking note of.

Oil Technicals:
But while it may be a positive step toward a bottom, the charts aren’t quite there yet.

“Oil is in a bear market until it’s not.“

Remember when two bullish daily candles meant that Oil was going to bounce?

Remember the week before when the one bullish daily candle meant the Oil bottom was in?

Remember… I’ll stop there, as I’m sure you get the point I’m trying to make. We should still be trading what’s in front of us, and quite frankly that’s one big bear market.

OIL Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

The daily chart shows that Oil is still capped by long term trend line resistance. There also hasn’t been a higher high or higher low since October 2015. Bearish.

OIL 15 Minute:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

The 15 minute chart shows the headline reaction off trend line resistance when the news was first reported. As it’s a weekly trend line being shown on a 15 minute chart, it’s not going to line up perfectly but I still love including these charts when price, even combined with news, respects a level almost perfectly!

———-

Chart of the Day:
When we look at Oil, it’s always wise to look at the Loonie.

USD/CAD Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

I’ll let you zoom into the lower time frame levels yourself depending on what you want to take notice of but I wanted to highlight some key zones where I will be looking for price to react.

Price has broken the most recent bullish trend line and has started to form a short term bearish channel. I’m not a fan of head and shoulders patterns and the subjectivity does my head in, but that one is pretty hard to miss even if you are using other levels to enter your trades around.

———

On the Calendar Wednesday:
USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks

GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
GBP Claimant Count Change
GBP Unemployment Rate

USD Building Permits
USD PPI m/m
USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

Do you see opportunity trading Oil or the Canadian Dollar? Take advantage on your $50,000Forex demo account.

Dane Williams – @VantageFX

Oil, USDCAD & more at Vantage FX

 

[Vantage FX]

Sterling Sojourn and a Yen Crossroad
February 26, 2016Dane Williams


Image: Wikipedia

Sterling Sojourn:

“GBP Second Estimate GDP q/q (0.5% v 0.5% expected)”

Pound Sterling received some respite from the relentless Brexit related selling as domestic fundamentals at least showed some sort of positive after GDP printed as expected at 0.5%.

Business spending did fall and flags have been raised about the balance of the economy. Questions remain around whether the headline number actually hides the part time, low wage nature of the growth experienced and how sustainable the growth can be long term.

But for now GBP has earned respite from the Brexit risk uncertainty, backed up by the technical barrier on the chart below.

GBP/USD Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

There were a few ways to draw the bearish channel but either way the drop is pausing on support for now.

Keep an eye on the Technical Analysis section of the Vantage FX Forex News Centre later today for a closer look at GBP/USD and some possible trading scenarios surrounding the Brexit referendum on June 23.

Yen Crossroad:

“USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m (1.8% v 0.2% expected)”

“USD Unemployment Claims (272K v 271K)”

Moving into the US session, we saw core durable goods orders rise considerably. A rare piece of good news for the manufacturing sector!

This contributed to USD/JPY strength, bouncing out of the technical zone that we have been speaking about on the @VantageFX Twitter stream.

USD/JPY Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

Match today’s USD/JPY and S&P500 charts with the two in yesterday’s Headlines and Correlations blog for a highlighted view of what we are watching here.

Price really is at a crossroads here, coming back to possibly retest previous support as resistance. I’m still treating the weekly trend line level as a larger support zone though, and am not interested in trading any sort of clean retest to the short side here.

———-

Chart of the Day:
With the current market themes around Oil, stocks and the Japanese Yen, we can sometimes get bogged down looking at the same charts. The idea of the chart of the day section was to keep the blog fresh and highlight some new trading opportunities.

The currency cross of EUR/AUD is one pair that we don’t get a chance to feature all that often, with the last time the pair made our chart of the day being way back on Melbourne Cup Day in November 2015!

EUR/AUD Daily:

Click on chart to see a larger view.

These major levels are a perfect example of why you keep them on your chart even if they have been broken. The type of break-out is very important too and as you can see, each time price has broken the marked level, it has gone through it HARD.

With price back on the level again, whichever way you choose to trade from, you still have a clearly defined level to manage your risk around.

———

On the Calendar Friday:
NZD Trade Balance
JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y
GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks

USD Prelim GDP q/q

Do you see opportunity trading Forex crosses? Take advantage on your own instant $50,000Forex demo account.

Dane Williams – @VantageFX

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About Dane Williams
Dane Williams is a Vantage FX Market Analyst. Dane shares his thoughts and analysis in our News Centre. View all posts by Dane Williams →