What I have learned from todays false gold retracement

[NWG_student]

First I entred the market after scalping som great pips yesterday, I did not belive gold hitted a reversal so I thought a retracement to upper range was a great opportunity to get som easy green pips.

The trend kept going upwards and i kept selling at new resistant levels, ended up in a really nasty selling position.

According to previous clues I expected a retracement to a lower range, placed all my SL at 1236 level, as the trend grew I was starting to get emotional involved and started searching for clues online, all analysis I found demanded that gold could not go down until it was hitting at least 1241 area, the trend grow strong and I had huge problems controlling myself and lost confidense, I moved SL to 1231 and opend a great long position based on analysis and speculation from alot of other trades, still hoping for a retracement to lower level.

Suddenly there was a higher high stopping out my 1231 SL, I was in huge loss but still relived as I thought that my buying position would get me into break even.

What we saw was just a spike, the market did not close over 1228 and retraced to a much lower level I was in a huge loss as both my selling and buying position gave me red pips.

I settled down and decided that this was bull**** and marked was playing to well so I swallowed my last confidence and got rid of all positions. (my only right decision today)

Later on i checked back and saw an new downtrend and decided to ride it, i got into new selling positions but then the marked started to go sideways and couldnt really breake any support levels so i got out again barely in + on this trade.


LESSON LEARNED, TRUST YOUR OWN INTUTION OVER ANY OTHERS, THERE IS A REASON YOU TOOK THE TRADE. FORGET ABOUT EMOTIONS AND LIKE JARRETT SAYS TECHNICALS IS LIKE LOOKING IN THE MIRROR DRIVING ON A HIGHWAY.

If i sticked to my plan and holded my original SL I would get out 2grand in profit, I ended up in greater loss.

Any views on todays behaviour in gold? and any predictions for the new week? im planning to let market settle a bit, it might be wise. any other has this opinion?

 

[Pharaoh]

Thanks for sharing a lesson that came at a very high cost.

I'm not personally ready to throw technicals overboard, but do admit that blind reliance on them can lead to bad situations. Emotions are truly the biggest killer, both in technical and fundamental trading.


I'll share some very good info on gold. It ALWAYS drops significantly within 24-48 hours of me buying physical gold. I'm not planning any purchases for the coming week, so the chances of a significant drop are reduced.

 

[FXWarriory]

What retracement are you talking about Start trading on big time frames starting from daily, weekly, monthly. Only by then you'll know what real retracement means

Gold trend is down, nothing till this minute suggests reversal. Am looking at the 1182 region, if it breaks below there next month, we are going in a long down journey guys.

 

[NWG_student]

Obviously I would pay attention to technicals, but not blindly rely on them.

I cant put under a table that resistance and support plays an importan role, aswell as going with the trend are usually a good idea.

We see i think i stay clear of gold this week, it would take a looong time to recover, both financial and mentally

 

[bigdolly]

First I entred the market after scalping som great pips yesterday, I did not belive gold hitted a reversal so I thought a retracement to upper range was a great opportunity to get som easy green pips.

The trend kept going upwards and i kept selling at new resistant levels, ended up in a really nasty selling position.

According to previous clues I expected a retracement to a lower range, placed all my SL at 1236 level, as the trend grew I was starting to get emotional involved and started searching for clues online, all analysis I found demanded that gold could not go down until it was hitting at least 1241 area, the trend grow strong and I had huge problems controlling myself and lost confidense, I moved SL to 1231 and opend a great long position based on analysis and speculation from alot of other trades, still hoping for a retracement to lower level.

Suddenly there was a higher high stopping out my 1231 SL, I was in huge loss but still relived as I thought that my buying position would get me into break even.

What we saw was just a spike, the market did not close over 1228 and retraced to a much lower level I was in a huge loss as both my selling and buying position gave me red pips.

I settled down and decided that this was bull**** and marked was playing to well so I swallowed my last confidence and got rid of all positions. (my only right decision today)

Later on i checked back and saw an new downtrend and decided to ride it, i got into new selling positions but then the marked started to go sideways and couldnt really breake any support levels so i got out again barely in + on this trade.


LESSON LEARNED, TRUST YOUR OWN INTUTION OVER ANY OTHERS, THERE IS A REASON YOU TOOK THE TRADE. FORGET ABOUT EMOTIONS AND LIKE JARRETT SAYS TECHNICALS IS LIKE LOOKING IN THE MIRROR DRIVING ON A HIGHWAY.

If i sticked to my plan and holded my original SL I would get out 2grand in profit, I ended up in greater loss.

Any views on todays behaviour in gold? and any predictions for the new week? im planning to let market settle a bit, it might be wise. any other has this opinion?

Well it depends on an occasion. Next time you will lost following your scent and then regret that you didn't pay attention what technical forecast tells you. I think you don't have to take your loss as a mistake but as a part of your natural trading swing. That's it.

 

[workitout]

i believe we all here ever experience this situation. for your own good, dont stick too much on any kind of diversion.
in your case i saw your gold trading are based on spike. most traders saw spike as a potentian way to follow direction, conclude the event as fail break.
while few traders threat spike price as false price, in sense price market not close on it. perhaps you can start to draw trendline at bigger time frame (h4,d1), but before that switch chart into line chart. it might help you a bit to torn off most diversion on your chart workspace.

 

[jotekfinance]

With the downtrend in the cost of gasoline in the U.S.A., I wonder if that will affect the continuing drop of gold prices (as compared to oil, etc.)

 

[bigdolly]

With the downtrend in the cost of gasoline in the U.S.A., I wonder if that will affect the continuing drop of gold prices (as compared to oil, etc.)

It is not likely to have that scenario. There are rumors Russia is going to bind rouble to the gold so they are going to replenish their gold reserves. I expect gold upsurge next year..

 

[robertrfx]

It is not likely to have that scenario. There are rumors Russia is going to bind rouble to the gold so they are going to replenish their gold reserves. I expect gold upsurge next year..

I have a similar opinion. But anything can happen. Let's see

 

[iMusingKiMi]

I think the biggest lessons you should learn here is never to be greedy. If you know the whole trend were down, no point to earn what you said as easy green pips. Why don't you just wait for a retracement 1st, then confirmation to continue ride on trend. Trading Buy and Sell is just another way for trader to kill themselves. Only patience to wait for setup earns money. Sun Tzu says, "The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself". Let's the market do what it wants, and wait for the opportunity.