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EUR/USD: forecast for Aug 31-Sept 6

By Elizaveta Belugina

EUR/USD spiked to 1.1700 during the Black Monday reaching the conversion are of several important resistances. As the market was in great stress, the low-yielding euro was used as a safe haven. Then, however, global risk sentiment improved and the pair reversed to the downside sliding below 1.1300. Data released in the euro area in the past week as usual were mixed.

In Greece political deadlock was temporary resolved as a caretaker prime minister was appointed. Vassiliki Thanou, an opponent of austerity measures, will lead the country to September elections. It’s the first time Prime Minister position in Greece is occupied by a woman.

The main event of the coming week for the euro will be the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday. There are many reasons for the ECB to show a dovish tone: inflation expectations in the euro area have fallen, oil prices have hit 6-year lows, while the euro’s exchange rate has become generally higher. Taking into account concerns about China’s economy and markets, the ECB’s President Mario Draghi will likely point out downside risks to European economy. Draghi will likely hint at the possibility of extending quantitative easing (QE) beyond September 2016. Comments like this will be negative for EUR/USD. Traders should also pay attention to the euro area’s flash August inflation figures on Monday as this release will be watched by the ECB.

Although we expect the ECB meeting to be a bearish factor for the euro, be aware of the fact that the market’s risk sentiment and the stock markets haven’t stabilized. This can make the single currency swing to the upside. As a result, one has to be prepared for volatile trading.

The technical picture for the euro looks bearish. A shooting start will the long upper shadow is ready to form on the weekly chart. Moreover, the pair returned below 200-day MA. Support is at 1.1150, 1.0950, 1.0850 and 1.0800. A bunch of resistance levels is located at 1.1380, 1.1430 and 1.1500 ahead of 1.1700.

EUR/USD, Daily

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6245

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: forecast for Aug 31-Sept 6

By Elizabeth Belugina

USD/JPY hit 116.15, the lowest level since the beginning of January, on Black Monday. Then as the market’s risk sentiment improved the pair returned to the previous support line of 2015 in the 121.50 area. Another positive factor for the US currency was the upward revision of America’s Q2 GDP growth.

As yen strengthened at the beginning of the past week, we got comments from Japanese officials that the move was too “rough”. Taking into account the risks from China, Japan’s monetary authorities will not want national currency to strengthen much further. As a result, they will likely step in with verbal interventions if the bears once again try to pull the pair to 116.00. In addition, there are rumors that Japan’s giant public pension fund (GPIF) is aggressively buying foreign assets to support USD/JPY.

Meanwhile, Japanese inflation data came out subdued. National core CPI was flat in July after rising by 0.2% in June. The more timely Tokyo CPI measure declined by 0.1% in August. It will be difficult for the Bank of Japan to achieve its 2% inflation target without further monetary stimulus. However, no such measures are expected within the next month.

Japanese core inflation, %

Next week traders will focus on the US economic releases and especially non-farm payrolls (NFP) due on Friday. In Japanese economic calendar, we see some less important releases. All in all, although the market’s sentiment may improve, the uncertainty about China and the US Federal Reserve’s policy will remain limiting USD/JPY on the upside.

On its way up the greenback will have to overcome resistance at 121.50, 122.25, 123.10 and 124.50. Support is located at 119.60 and 118.30/00.

Daily, USD/JPY

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6244

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

US Dollar: forecast for Aug 31-Sept 6

Kira Iukhtenko

The Fed’s members have become much more dovish in their words after the last week’s market turmoil. However, demand for the US dollar recovered by the end of the week as the US data confirmed the ongoing recovery.

The chance of a rate hike in September went down last week, but it can’t completely written off. Anyway, the market continues pricing in a policy change in 2015.

We expect the US currency to strengthen over the next week. From the technical viewpoint, US Dollar index is forming a bearish triangle on a bullish market – sign of a mid-term trend continuation. Weekly candle with a long lower shadow confirms our short-term bullish view.

US data next week will be in the center of the market attention ahead of the September 17 meeting. Watch the August PMI indices. Most expected day of the week is Friday with its August labor market figures. The NFP release is expected to support the USD demand.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6239

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key currency options
31 August 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.0900 (4.75bn), 1.1000 (610m), 1.1150, 1.1165, 1.1175, 1.1190, 1.1200 (781m), 1.1235, 1.1250, 1.1270, 1.1300, 1.1350, 1.1375, 1.1400, 1.1410, 1.1415 (511m), 1.1500 (646m)

USD/JPY: 118.90, 119.00, 119.75, 119.80, 120.00, 120.40, 120.50, 122.65

AUD/USD: 0.7250

NZD/USD: 0.6585, 0.6600 (2.3bn), 0.6750 (976m)

EUR/JPY: 132.00 (526m), 136.00, 137.00 (1.35bn)

USD/CAD: 1.3200

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/3514

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Aug 31

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.1252, TAKE PROFIT 1.1017, STOP LOSS 1.1317

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT from 121.15, TAKE PROFIT 118.26, STOP LOSS 122.15

USD/CHF: Hold LONG from 0.9580, TAKE PROFIT 0.9799, STOP LOSS 0.9495

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT from 0.7215, TAKE PROFIT 0.6954, STOP LOSS 0.7220

USD/CAD: Hold LONG from 1.3055, TAKE PROFIT 1.3400 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.3140 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT from 138.05, TAKE PROFIT 134.33 (revised), STOP LOSS 137.65 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG from 0.7300, TAKE PROFIT 0.7483, STOP LOSS 0.7215

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT from 0.6540, TAKE PROFIT 0.6342, STOP LOSS 0.6635

Trade ideas:

EUR/CHF: SELL at 1.0815, TAKE PROFIT 1.0638, STOP LOSS 1.0895

GBP/JPY: SELL at 188.50, TAKE PROFIT 180.96, STOP LOSS 191.74

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

GBP/USD: Possibly SELL

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*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6258

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for Sept 1

Kira Iukhtenko

We expect the US Dollar to strenghten this week ahead of the labor market data on Friday (forecasts are upbeat). Given this view, EUR/USD is a SELL these days with a target of 1.0950. Technical picture confirms the ideas as the pair pulled back from the 55-week MA, forming a long-legged red candle last week. Watch the unemployment rate in the euro area tomorrow.

GBP/USD also looks bearish this week, but the doji candle formed last Friday creates room for a bullish pullback. We recommend selling on rallies to 1.5480 (former trend support), targeting 1.5330. Watch the UK Manufacturing PMI tomorrow.

As for AUD/USD, the pair is trading in the red ahead of the RBA meeting on Tuesday. No rate cut is expected, so the pair could get temporary support from this side. This would become a good point to sell on rallies. Don't miss China's PMI indices on Tuesday - data could become a negative surprise for the commodity currencies.



More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6272

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Sept 1

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1252, TAKE PROFIT 1.1017, STOP LOSS 1.1317

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 121.15, TAKE PROFIT 118.26, STOP LOSS 122.15

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 138.05, TAKE PROFIT 134.33 (revised), STOP LOSS 137.65 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG at 0.7300, TAKE PROFIT 0.7483, STOP LOSS 0.7215

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9580, TAKE PROFIT 0.9799, STOP LOSS 0.9495

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7215, TAKE PROFIT 0.6954, STOP LOSS 0.7220

Trade ideas:

EUR/CHF: SELL at 1.0815, TAKE PROFIT 1.0638, STOP LOSS 1.0895

GBP/JPY: SELL at 188.50, TAKE PROFIT 180.96, STOP LOSS 191.74

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

GBP/USD: Possibly SELL

________________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6279

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/AUD: buy target - 2.2000
1 September 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/AUD reversed from support zone
-Next buy target - 2.2000

GBP/AUD recently reversed up sharply from the combined support zone lying at the intersection of the support level 2.1400 (former resistance level which reversed the previous impulse wave 1 in July), the support trendline of the daily up channel from May and the 61.8% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp minor impulse wave (i). The upward reversal from this support zone completed the latest minor correction (ii).

GBP/AUD is expected to rise further in the active impulse waves (iii) and 3 toward the next buy target at the resistance level 2.2000. Buy stop-loss can be placed below the aforementioned support level 2.1400.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6281

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for September 2

By Elizabeth Belugina

The market’s risk sentiment remains unstable. Worse than expected manufacturing data from China on Tuesday morning once again provoked decline in stocks increasing demand for safe-haven euro and yen. US ISM manufacturing PMI came out lower than expected (51.1 vs. 52.6 forecast). This is the lowest reading since August 2013.

At the beginning of this week, traders were once again considering the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike. Note that the expectations of the market are very data-dependent. Watch the upcoming releases: weaker figures will hurt USD. On Wednesday, traders will be watching ADP non-farm employment change (12:15 GMT): it is believed that this labor market indicator provides hints for more important non-farm payrolls (NFP) due on Friday.

EUR/USD rose, but failed to fix above the 200-day MA. Support is at 1.1200, 1.1150 and 1.1100 (key level) ahead of 1.1017. Resistance is at 1.1300, 1.1330 and 1.1380/1.1400. Advance of the single currency will likely be limited ahead of the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday.

GBP/USD is trying to hold above 1.5300 after it closed below the 200-day MA on Monday (1.5365). This level is now acting as resistance together with 1.5410/00. British manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than expected. Britain will release construction PMI at 08:30 GMT. Support is 1.5245, 1.5200 and 1.5170.

USD/JPY reversed down from 121.50 and slid to support at 119.60. Further support is at 118.90 and 118.30. As the uncertainty about the Fed’s policy remains, advance of the pair will be limited.

AUD/USD was testing levels below 0.7100. The Reserve Bank of Australia left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2%. On Wednesday Australia will release Q2 GDP data. The nation’s economic growth is expected to slow down from 0.9% to 0.4%. Support is at 0.7000 (psychological level), 0.6989 (April 28 2009 low) and 0.7200. Resistance is at 0.7100 and 0.7150.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6288

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Sept 2

Open positions:*

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 121.15, TAKE PROFIT 118.26, STOP LOSS 121.30

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9580, TAKE PROFIT 0.9799, STOP LOSS 0.9495

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7215, TAKE PROFIT 0.6771, STOP LOSS 0.7164

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 138.05, TAKE PROFIT 133.31, STOP LOSS 136.65

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG at 0.7300, TAKE PROFIT 0.7483, STOP LOSS 0.7215

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0815, TAKE PROFIT 1.0638, STOP LOSS 1.0895

Trade ideas:

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.6405, TAKE PROFIT 0.6092, STOP LOSS 0.6519

EUR/USD: Possibly SELL

GBP/USD: Possibly SELL

USD/CAD: Possibly BUY

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

GBP/JPY: Possibly SELL

_____________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6293