Technical Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

USD/JPY Bullish Wolfe Wave Confluence with ATR

The USD/JPY is recovering from a recent drop and we can see a bullish structure forming on intraday time frame. The structure is a bullish Wolfe Wave where point 4 is between point 1 and 2 and that accounts for a strict bullish Wolfe Wave. Breakout of 113.45 could be a sign for bullish wave towards 113.70 and 114.00. EPA (Estimated Price at Arrival) or final TP per Wolfe Wave rules is the intersecting 1-4 line which points to 115.30 level. If the breakout is confirmed we might see development to EPA over next few days. 114.00 is ATR projection for intraday targets.

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD POC Zone is 1.2250-75

The spike that was caused after Theresa May's conference was successfully faded as we predicted in the previousGBP/USDcoverage. However it has been clear that 1.2250 is very important support and that it needs to break for further bearish continuation. However if GBP/USD keeps above 1.2250-75 (Bullish order block, H3 weekly camarilla, 50.0 fib, EMA89) we might see an extension towards 1.2412 and 1.2480. 1.2300 is support now and the break of support might retest the POC zone. However if 1.2250 breaks to the downside we might see 1.2200 followed by 1.2150.

Currently the pair is showing an emerging Ascending Scallop pattern around 1.2300 level which further established 1.2300 as interim support.

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD Long Bearish Wolfe Wave Confirmed

The EUR/USD is slowly moving, waiting for investor action on Trump's speech and inauguration. Due to potential volatility later today we might see investors moving to protect their money. On the EUR/USD intraday chart we see astrict bearishWolfe Wave with clearly defined 1-3 wave. InWolfe Waveanalysis the wave length is not fixed. This is a January wave and the breakout trigger could happen during the Trump's speech itself. Breakout is triggered at 1.0590 and the target is 1.0536 with the scope towards 1.0460 but only if bearish momentum is too high.

If we see a bullish EUR/USD it will still keep the wave intact. Due to profit taking today, the movement could be two directional so be careful.

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD Looks Stronger After Trump's Speech

The EUR/USD failure to break belowthe bearish Wolfe Wavethat was indicated on Friday was caused by Trump's protectionist speech that weakened the USD. He also failed to provide any strong cues regarding infrastructure spending. Technically that failure to go below 1.0590 was the clear indication that the sentiment has changed in now moment. 1.0720 is now a support zone with a bullish order block confirming it. Watch the reaction off 1.0720 zone although it is a shallow retracement (H3,23.6). The stronger POC zone is 1.0675-90 (L3,61.8, bullish SHS trend line, L3,ATR pivot). Inverted Head and Shoulders (Bullish SHS) additionally supports the bullish outlook for the pair. Target is 1.0760 and sustained momentum and/or 4h close above 1.0760 targets 1.0790 and 1.0820.

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/JPY Inverted Triangle Upside Broken

Global equities rally that extended in Asia session weakened the Yen and it fell vs its main counterparts USD and GBP. Both USD/GBP/JPY are heavily connected to Equity markets and when Equities are going up both USD/JPY and GBP/JPY are going up too. The pair has formed an Inverted Triangle (ConTriangle) and subsequently broke its top so we might see a retest-continuation.

The POC (DPP, L3. ConTriangle top, 50.0, ATR PP) comes within the 141.85-142.00 zone. If the momentum persists and we don't see any retracement, then traders should pay attention to a possible continuation above 142.95 towards 143.40 (breakout level) and 143.60 projected high. Overshot above 143.60 targets 144.20. For intact bullish scenario the pair should hold above 141.50.

 

[Admiral Markets]

USD/CAD Rooftop Pattern with Two POC Zones

The USD/CAD dropped in Asia session and it mainly trades lower during Europe and early US Session. The rooftop pattern that has been formed at the top of weekly trading range might be a sign of a bearish continuation. The first POC 1.3125-1.3152 (38.2, H4, ATR pivot, order block, trend line) might spike the price down to 1.3090, 1.3040 and 1.3010. Breakout trade might happen at the break of 1.3010 where the target is 1.2970. However if the pair proceeds higher than 1.3152 pay attention to POC2 1.3180-1.3210 (61.8, ATR top, H5, rooftop support). Targets for PC2 rejection are 1.3150 and 1.3090. The POC zone is wider due to ATR of 122 pips, marking this pair as volatile. At this point POC1 might reject the price so pay attention.

 

[Admiral Markets]

The POC zone is wider due to higher ATR

The GBP/USD is currently undergoing a technical retracement and we can see the POC zone lurking below L3 camarilla weekly pivot. In the case of further intra day retracement traders should pay attention to POC zone 1.2440-1.2465 (61.8, L3, ATR low, inner trend line, bullish order block). The POC zone is wider due to higher ATR. Rejections might target 1.2520 and 1.2600. A strong 1h momentum or 4h close above 1.2600 should target 1.2710 resistance. Have in mind that this bullish scenario persists as long as 1.2375 holds its ground.

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/CAD Bearish ABCD and Trendline Confluence

The EUR/CAD is currently in a zig-zag downtrend. We can see a distinct trend line that makes a confluence with H3, ATR pivot and ABCD bearish pattern. ABCD is valid and confirmation of short continuation comes with 1.4025 break. Additionally, the POC zone is 1.4060-80 so watch for possible rejections off the zone too. Targets are 1.4000 and 1.3945. Only the break of 1.3940 will extend the target towards 1.3900 zone. Invalidation of this bearish scenario comes if 1.4110 is reached.

 

[Admiral Markets]

AUD/NZD Bounces Off Support

The AUD/NZD bounced off support as expected, driven by worse than expected Unemployment Rate (5.2 % vs 4.8 %) while AUD Commodity Prices showed an increase by 10.9%. Technically POC comes within 1.0355-1.0370 (DPP, L3, 61.8, ABCD hist). The up move is supported by historical ABCD pattern at L3 support so on the next retest of POC zone we might see another bounce towards 1.0430 region. If we don’t see a retracement to POC then a strong h1 momentum or 4h close above 1.0435 might push the price to 1.0470.

 

[Admiral Markets]

PRE NFP Report: EUR/USD has Almost Completed ABCD Pattern

The single most important event today is NFP with Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment rate. The data that comes out will determine next movement of the EUR/USD pair. Currently the EUR/USD has almost completed the bearish ABCD pattern which still can retrace within the POC zone. POC zone 1.0680-1.0695 (ATR low, EMA 89, L3, DPP, Trend line) should either reject or break, depending on the US data today. If it rejects next targets are 1.0760 and 1.0810 followed by 1.0870. If the EUR/USD breaks below the POC zone - 1.0780 traders should watch for 1.0760 and 1.0630 followed by 1.0580. US data will be very volatile today so I suggest using a VPS protection tool.