Technical Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

Bearish ABCD Pattern on EUR/USD pair

The EUR/USD closed its 2016 book below 1.0550 and in a slow start of 2017 it has formed a bearish ABCD pattern. The spike on Friday was caused by algos and I assume it cleared most stops above 1.0590. Today it is mostly bank holiday, so the market may move slower than usual. Any retest of 1.0590 could be used for positional shorts whereas 1.0550 serves as interim resistance and might be used for positional shorts too. 1.0450 is the first target while the drop below 1.0450 targets 1.0375.

 

[Admiral Markets]

AUD/USD Megaphone Pattern Marks 2 Way Trading Possible

The RBA wants the AUD/USD currency below 0.75. If we take a look at last 2 weeks we can see that support has been established within the 0.7150 zone. Looking at our weekly chart we can see that 0.7150 has served as historical support (May-June) and now it is the bottom of megaphone pattern. POC for long trades comes within 0.7150-65 zone (megaphone bottom, L4, historical support) while the POC for short trades is 0.7260-80 zone (H4, megaphone top, 38.2, bearish order block). Targets for both shorts and longs is the pivot point 0.7210.Megaphone aka Broadening top is a tricky pattern but since we can identify POC zones, it should be easier for us to spot trading opportunities.

 

[Admiral Markets]

USD/CAD Bullish SHS Pattern Shaping Up

As we approach the President elect Trump's inauguration date later this month, the USD data has been very sound to begin the year. Whilst Commodities prices in general have strengthened since Trump indicated he wanted to rebuild America's infrastructure, the price of Oil has dipped in recent days. Nonetheless, the CAD has been performing pretty well, and on the Daily TF, we seem to have had a double top on this pair at 1.36, that pulls the price down. As you can see on weekly chart the price is retracing towards POC zone where it could shape Inverted Head and Shoulders (Bullish SHS) pattern.

POC (potential right shoulder, historical buyers, order block, 61.8) 1.3260-80 could spike the price to the upside providing that price stays above 1.3230. Targets are 1.3350 and 1.3400. Only if we see a 4h close above 1.3400 the pair will aim for 1.3500 and above. Above 1.3600 the pair will breakout of bullish SHS pattern and the 1.3800 should be exposed. So at this time for intra day and intra week swing trading pay attention to POC zone and possible rejection should POC is reached.

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD Two POC Zones Waiting For Possible Sellers

The EUR/USD spiked above 1.0500 reaching 1.0575. The move was sparked by stop grabbers above 1.0520 and yuan depo rates flying to 96.6%. Yen demand was huge, sending the dollar down across the board. At this point the USD is recovering while EUR/USD might get rejected from POC1 and 2.

Technically we see 2 POC zones. POC 1.0520-35 (61.8, trend line, ATR pivot) could reject the price towards 1.0460. If the EUR/USD spikes above POC, we should watch for possible rejection off POC2 1.0570-85 (ATR top, trend line, 78.6) towards 1.0520 and 1.0460. 1.0460 is a support now and only a momentum break on 1h or 4h close below 1.0460 should target 1.0420 again.

 

[Admiral Markets]

PRE NFP Analysis: USD/JPY Might Drop Further on Bad NFP Report

As Japanese manufacturing numbers continue to improve, the core backbone of the Japanese export economy, is seen as good for the JPY. However, as Equities have been quite bullish since Trump's win, this has lead to risk-on and JPY weakness. Nonetheless, the USD Index has peaked a few days ago, and has seen weakness since FOMC minutes were released indicated a go slow on rate hikes.

The NFP with Average Hourly Earningsand Unemployment Rate is the event of the week and should provide high volatility to this pair. The ADP was worse than expected so we might see worse NFP numbers. The pair is in downtrend on intra day time frame, within a bearish channel. However, the NFP report can provide either a continuation or reversal depending on results so I'd advise you to useVPSto minimize risks. POC zone is 116.40-55 (ATR, H4, trend line, EMA89, channel top). If the report comes better then expected (also watch for Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment rate) we might see a spike towards the zone and price might extend to 117.55 on a strong momentum. But if we see worse than expected numbers, than target might be 114.75. 114.75 is a strong support so there might be some bounce and profit taking.

 

[Admiral Markets]

USD/CAD Leaned Inverted Head and Shoulders for Bullish Continuation

Despite the excellent data for CAD currency, theUSDeconomy also showed good numbers on Friday. While unemployment is still at 4.7% and wages are going up, we might assume that the economy is very strong and that may lead to another rate hike. I personally believe the US Fed will continue to gradually raise rates in the US leading to gradual USD strength in the medium term.

Technically the USD/CAD is showing bullish SHS pattern (inverted head and shoulders) and is supported at 1.3230. 4h close or strong 1h momentum above 1.3270 could spike the pair up to 1.3312 (ATR target) and 1.3330 (H5), USD/CAD bullish outlook is also supported by bullish divergence, so we could see buying into dips towards 1.3312-30 targets.

 

[Admiral Markets]

AUD/NZD V Shaped Reversal Turning Into Ascending Scallop

With a giant inverted head and shoulders pattern on the AN pair on Daily/Weekly TF, this bullish move is strengthened by fundamental analysis too. Given President Elect Trump has plans to rebuild the USA, this had lead to bullish moves on base metals and this is good for the AUD. The NZ economy has been quite strong of late, but rate cuts have not been ruled out for the mainly Agri-economy, and this is largely contingent on Dairy prices.

As we could have seen on ourSession Recap webinaryesterday, the price behaved exactly as planned, rejecting from 1.0460. Technically, we can spot a V shaped reversal pattern that is turning into ascending scallop, opening the door for more gains. 4h close above 1.0517 is needed and above 1.0530 preferred for next target 1.0570. Substantial momentum above 1.0570 will target 1.0640. Have in mind that ATR on AUD/NZD is not very high and it might take some time for the price to reach the target. POC is 1.0485-1.0500 (ATR pivot, X cross ™, bullish order block) and we might see rejections should price reach the POC zone.

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD is Bearish Below 1.0680

The EUR/USD has spiked to 1.0660 zone today and as I showed on previous Session Recap webinar, it was clear to me that it should reject from the zone. The situation is clear now too. We have a huge bearish divergence within 1.0650-75 zone (Bearish order block, ATR top, H4). This is a major resistance. Unless we see a momentum break of 1.0680 towards 1.0750, the EUR/USD should remain bearish. POC zone should hold for bears and if 1.0680 breaks, bulls could have a breakout towards 1.0720 and 1.0750 as it will possible be a stop grabber in play. targets are 1.0600 and 1.0560-30 zone. Below 1.0530 target will be 1.0490.

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD Bullish POC zone above 1.0560

The EUR/USD has turned bearish around 1.0660 where it was sold heavily as expected. The pair is currently ranging but as long as interim key support at 1.0500 is intact it might spike again. This time bulls might have a control as we see a confluence at 1.0560-80 (ABCD, L5, ATR, Order block). The spike above the POC might retest 1.0620 and 1.0685 subsequently. Additionally, we might see bears again around 1.0685 as we can easily see historical sellers there. Break of 1.0500 will put EUR/USD bears in stronger control. I personally don't believe in any sustained rally in this pair so if you take long positions, it is advised to scale out and place protective profit stops once you are in the profit.

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD Spiked after May Confirmed her Brexit Plan

The GBP/USD behaved as planned just before the May's press conference had started. Just before the conference it followed ourSession Recapanalysis and dropped for 65 pips originally. However the weakness in the GBP hasn't been sustained due to "sell the rumour, buy the fact" scenario. The vote on Brexit plans will be taken in both houses of parliament and there might be elections meanwhile.

Technically the GBP is still bearish. Levels and zones to watch for are pretty much shown on the chart. 1.2345 H4 resistance stands as interim resistance and we might see some short term rejections in the market close to that level. The POC zone 1.2380-2400 (78.6, Bearish order block) could reject the price as the ATR has already been overshot by huge extent. Traders need to pay attention on 4h close below 1.2250 for further bearish continuation towards 1.2185 and 1.2100. Another cue is also to look for MACD divergence at the top, that will be another confirmation for short trades, providing that bears want to see momentum fade. Due to recent developments in the GBP and UK, using profit stops is strongly advised should price reach the POC zone and reject from it.