Technical Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/JPY Bullish continuation in progress

Although the targets have been hit after our previous GBP/JPY analysis, bullish sentiment still prevails as the dragon relentlessly flying towards 136.00 and further. Today's early trading gave us more than 70 possible pips as shown in the live trading videos. There is still more room to the upside but we need to see if the pair will retrace or it will proceed without any retracement. The range (ATR) of GBP/JPY is huge so pay attention to 135.15, 134.60 and 133.10-25 bounce. June trend line that is sitting at 135.15 has been broken and the pair needs to have a 4h close to possibly proceed to 136.00. However 138.38 is H4 camarilla weekly pivot so in case of strong risk on and good GDP CPI data, it can hit it at the end of the week. Retracement towards 134.60 zone could provide buying opportunities in the form of retest trade so watch any reaction within the 134.60 zone. Strong POC comes within 133.10-25 zone too (bullish order block, EMA89, historical buyers) and pair should bounce towards above mentioned targets.

 

[Admiral Markets]

USD/CAD up as Oil price retreats

Following a report that European Oil storages have hit their limits and that Oil tankers were being hired in Europe to store excess Oil, we saw the Oil price retreat over the past week, causing CAD weakness. Trump's historic Presidential win has only seen USD strength as his fiscal policy plans are likely to lead to more US Debt and Inflationary expectations have risen, meaning a rate hike is a greater chance.
USD/CAD is in uptrend and currently we can see a regular divergence playing out that could give a retracement in uptrend. POC 1.3427-1.3460 (L3, EMA89, WPP, 50.0, inner trend line) could spike the price to the upside targeting 1.3600. Additionally if we see a breakout above Inner trend line (ITL) or 4h close above it 1.3550 and 1.3600 are in play again. In the case of deeper retracement price may reach POC2 1.3375-90 (L4,trend line, 61.8) and spike towards 1.3465 in the same scenario.

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD Retracement trend line broken

The GBP/USD is showing signs of immediate strength as we see strong ascending trend lines on H4 chart and retracement trend line which has been broken. The zone 1.2395-1.2415 (L4, EMA89, retracement trend line) marks POC, but since 4h candle has already closed we might see a continuation of bullish trend around 1.2455 towards 1.2506. If we see a 4h close above 1.2506 next targets are 1.2560 and 1.2600. 1.2675 can only be reached if we see a daily close above 1.2600. The GBP/USD needs to stay above 1.2375 for this scenario to succeed.

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/CAD Strong bearish channel confluence

The EUR/CAD is waiting for Crude Oil inventories data on the expectations that OPEC is planning to cut in a meeting this or next week. Crude Oil data should create CAD volatility. Technically EUR/CAD is nose diving within the bearish channel with 1.4200 as strong support. POC zone (EMA89, bearish order block, channel top) 1.4280-1.4305 shows a retracement trend line break (RT) and is suggesting more downside to come. If the pair continues with a drop below the POC or rejects again from POC the target is 1.4200 with 1.4130 and 1.4098 as next targets. However any spike above 1.4305 could target 1.4325 and eventually 1.4402. I expect rallies to be sold as cut is clearly bullish for Oil. That will translate EUR weakness into Oil additional strength.

 

[Admiral Markets]

AUD/JPY making strong bullish swings above order blocks

Base metals are up - Copper, Iron Ore. LNG (Oil) is also stable and going up while Australian Treasury Yields have increased the past month. We can see an overall JPY weakness across the board. Technically, we have 2 POC zones 83.10-25 is the retracement trend line break and X cross ™ so if the price pullbacks to the zone it might spike up. The price is above H3 camarilla resistance so it might also reject from H3. In the case of deeper retracement we should pay attention to 82.65-75 POC2 (trend line, DPP, L3, bullish order block). The 4h close or 1h momentum above 83.40 should aim for 84.40 - final target for this swing.

 

[Admiral Markets]

USD/CAD Range play with a chance of breakout

Following Trump's Presidential victory the USD has continued from strength to strength as US Treasury Yields have increased in the past month. It appears that profit taking is occurring on the USD at present. CAD has bounced following an Oil price bounce following conjecture that OPEC will cut oil production in next week's meeting.
Technically USD/CAD is ranging between L3 H3 pivots, strictly defined with camarilla so we need to pay attention to possible breakouts. We see 2 X cross. Above 1.3505 we could see 1.3525 and 1.3550. Below 1.3452, 1.3420 is possible. Friday is a profit taking day so we might see a breakout.

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD 1.0660 zone keeps rejecting the price

With all eyes firmly on the OPEC meeting this week to see if they cut oil production and raise the Oil price, other key items this week affecting USD is Advance GDP, Consumer Confidence, NFP and Unemployment rate. The EU reports its inflation numbers this week, a key concern for the ECB and Draghi also speaks again. EUR weakness may gain some traction as Italy holds its Constitutional Referendum, a No Vote win could lead to Renzi resigning, political instability in Italy and snap elections sooner rather than later. Bad debts held by Italian Banks stand near EU360Bn, and a No Vote along with political instability may lead to further pressures on Italian Banks ability to remain solvent and ensure the EU Banking systems is sound.
As we could see in the previous LIVE Session Recap video, the EUR/USD has perfectly rejected from 1.0660 zone and so far it has been rejecting it with strong momentum. Technically 1.0635-60 is still valid POC zone (H4, X cross, 61.8, historical sellers) but we also need to pay attention to a possible retracement (gray) trend line break. 4h close below could instill further bearish continuation towards 1.0540 and 1.0503. Rallies towards POC zone could possibly be shorted into providing that 1.0720 stands strong. Break below 1.0500 could target 1.0450.

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/GBP potential upside move

The EUR/GBP is has a potential to break the range and proceed to the upside if we see a rejection off POC. POC comes within 0.8510-15 zone ( V shape, DPP, EMA89, trend line). If we don't see a retracement to POC , pay attention to H1 close above descending trend line. The pair could reach 0.8550, 0.8575 and 0.8615 if there is a H1 momentum or 4h close above 0.8575. Additionally the pair rejected slightly above the bullish order block that is located just above L3 support. This further supports a bullish bias for this pair.

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/JPY Regular Bearish Divergence on Intraday Timeframe

The EUR/JPY is showing a regular bearish divergence on intraday timeframe. Traders should watch for any H1 momentum or 1h close below the trend line that might be an early cue that the price might drop towards 120.67 and 120.16. 120.16 is a nice confluence of L4, EMA89 and Bullish Order Block where bounce might be expected. However, if we see a 4h close above H3 - 121.70, the price should continue upside towards 122.20 where H4 is located.

 

[Admiral Markets]

USD/JPY waiting for NFP momentum

Whilst risk-off has prevailed in Equities this week ahead of the Italian Referendum, we are drawn to the NFP today to give us some insights into whether the US Fed will hike sooner rather than later. Despite this risk-off, the JPY has been weakening. Given ADP NFP signalling over 216k jobs added this month, a strong NFP above 200k may give the USD bulls another kick and help USD/JPY move forward to 115. But it won’t be that easy in the case of bad NFP and Unemployment result. On a good NFP the USD/JPY might spike to 114.50 and 115.00. Bad NFP should tank the pair down to 113.35-00 POC ( L5, Bullish order blocks, ascending trendline). We need to observe the reaction then. 113.00 zone is the strong zone which might spike to pair even on a bad result.
However, if the result comes a whole lot worse than expected (<100k) 112.50-00 can't be ruled out.