Technical Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

USD/JPY Lower Highs and Lower Lows zig-zag

ECB is unclear on its QE with regards to tapering or the end of the programme. Equities tanked due to due to the uncertainty around further ECB steps.Initially we saw de-risking but stay tuned for greater clarity in the December ECB meeting. In the aftermath of ECB, Philly's Fed went better than expected while the US initial jobless claims came in at 260K vs. 250k estimate.
Technically USDJPY might drop further from 2 POC zones. Watch the reaction around POC1 (H4, trend line, 61.8, EMA89) within 103.80-90. If the pair proceeds above 114.05 we might see POC2 getting hit within 104.08-20 zone (H5, 88.6, trend line). Both rejections should target 103.40 and 103.20 subsequently. Only h1 momentum or 4h close below 103.15 should open the door for 102.65 test.

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[Admiral Markets]

USD/JPY Reversal might show up soon

As we could see, the price respected the latest USD/JPY analysis rejecting from POC2 zone. However, with most eyes on USD data this week including, New Home Sales, Crude Oil data, Advance GDP data, we may see some additional USD volatility. BoJ will be watching their CPI data with close eyes; but I expect the bullish trend in Equities to continue with risk-on causing weakness in JPY and the general bullishness in USD to continue. We might see an uptrend until October 31. Remember Risk-on is JPY weakness into USD strength. Risk-On means investments are going long into Equities and Real Estate, in other words, traders long risky assets. When its Risk-On, JPY usually weakens. But what we have right now, is also USD bullishness.
Technically POC zone 103.70-80 (61.8, EMA89, trend line) could reject the price towards 104.10 and 104.50. We can also see a momentum trend line broken to the upside. Additionally 1h momentum or 4h close above 104.20 would further spur bullish momentum towards 104.50 and 105.00 eventually.
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[Admiral Markets]

GBP/AUD steep trend line marks bearish zigzag

GBP basket has been moving a lot since Brexit vote and mostly it has been sold into rallies as I suggested. Our latest Session Recap GBP/USD trade analysis and setup has provided us with more than 120 potential pips. As our correlation table suggests, the GBP/USD and GBP/AUD have a very strong positive correlation so they move in the same direction.
The GBP/AUD is technically very bearish and we can see it on our chart. Steep trend line, L3, bearish order block make POC zone 1.5880-95. Traders should watch for any short term rejection of POC. But I would suggest paying attention to POC2 because the first POC's trend line is to steep so it could break. If trend line breaks we could see retracement to POC2 - 1.5960-90 (DPP, H3, EMA89, X-cross). Have in mind that POC zones are wider due to ATR of the pair that is much higher than any major cross, but the chance to capture even more pips is exponentially higher if we get in the right direction.

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD at resistance after 150 pip drop

If you follow our Session Recap webinars you could have made more than 120 pips on previous GBP/USD analysis and setup. Today the Advance GDP data release has spiked the price to the upside giving us another potential chance to position for a new short trade setups. 1.2280-1.2305 is the zone where price should reject. POC zone (inner trend line, H3/H4, 88.6 fib, historical sellers) is the deeper retracement for the pair. If we see a 4h close above 1.2340 the price might turn in a short term uptrend on H1 and we would need to look for 4h time frame for further shorts. Targets are 1.2200 and 1.2141. 4h close or strong H1 momentum below 1.2140 targets 1.2080 as the first target again prior to 1.2000 flat.

 

[Admiral Markets]

AUD/NZD bullish continuation is possible

The AUD/NZD has been moving in a steady uptrend and we can see 2 distinct trend lines that form the bullish trend. Trend lines are the part of 2 POC zones that might spike the price to the upside so traders should watch for it. POC (H3, WPP, EMA89, trend line) has also broken above the descending trend line marking another attempt for the bulls to spike the price to the upside. 1.0620-40 could reject the price further towards 1.0696 and 1.0765. 4h close above 1.0696 is needed for 1.0740-50 target. The price should stay ideally above 1.0580 for this to happen else we might see a deeper retracement in the trend. However if we see a deeper retracement, then pay attention to 1.0535-50 POC2 ( L3, trend line, 78.6) and ideally the price should stay above 1.0500. The target stays the same 1.0740-50 zone.

 

[Admiral Markets]

USD/MXN Mexican Peso dropping heavily

Recent suggestions in the media that Trump is closing the gap in the polls ahead of the US election is putting further pressure on the MXN. Trump's plans are to do better trade deals with Mexico, and perhaps build a wall to stop illegal immigration in the USA. The USD is also losing some strength when looking at the USD Index, and this is primarily due to risk-off against the USD ahead of the elections. We can see de-risking now in most markets.
Technically, USD/MXN is in a strong uptrend followed by bullish order block far to the left that is connected to strong double top breakout (purple rectangle). The pair is very close to resistance, and we should be patient and wait for buy the dips scenario. Should USD/MXN proceed further up without any retracement pay attention to 4h close above 19.47 towards 19.68. If the pair breaks down the steep trendline it should signal a retracement towards POC 19.02-09 ( L3, DPP, 61.8, EMA89, double top breakout/bullish order block). Targets are 19.47 and 19.68.

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD Bullish order block marks the support

As explained in yesterday's article the main reason for USD weakness now is de-risking ahead of elections. Adding to lower than expected US ADP, we might assume that NFP too, will be lower then expected, but it remains to be seen tomorrow.
Technically the EUR/USD is rejecting from clear resistance marked with H4 camarilla and trend line. For bulls breakout can happen only above 1.1135 (4h close or h1 momentum break) towards 1.1170. Positional longs are located within POC 1.1040-50 (L4, trend line, EMA89, bullish order block) with 1.1020 as X cross ™ support. Break below 1.1020 would target 1.0960 and possible reversal.

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD interim trend changed to bullish

USD strength was witnessed over the Asia session earlier today as the FBI cleared Clinton on the email issue. However, the GBPUSD has been bought on dips as the trend switched from intra week bearish to intraday bullish after UK court ruled against Brexit. However market is totally US election driven and will be even more volatile this whole week.
Technically POC zone (EMA89, trend line, L5, ATR bottom) 1.2380-1.2400 could reject the price towards 1.2456, 1.2485 and 1.2540 as long as the price is above bullish order block 1.2353 (purple rectangle). Ideally for a continuation look for POC rejection and close above descending trend line. If the price gets below 1.2350 sentiment will be bearish again and the pound could target 1.2300 and 1.2230 again.

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD High momentum candles on 4h time frame

The Trump's victory on election reflected on the EUR/USD pair both during the elections and after London open. The pair spiked exactly as predicted in the latest EUR/USD analysis. As expected, the USD plummeted at the pinnacle of the vote count for the US Presidency, with the USD Index touching 95.83. We saw a movement of funds to safe haven currencies like the JPY and CHF, and surprisingly the EUR strengthened too. We saw the EURUSD hit 1.13 during those moments of the vote count, and yet we don't know the overall impact on global trade as a result of Trump's trade protectionism plans. We still need to wait and see if the funds leave the USD again.
At this time the pair made a railway pattern showing two momentum candles. According to high momentum (volatility) trading and analysis, traders could short the pair on a retrace towards POC1 and POC2. POC1 1.1100-1.1110 (L3, 38.2,trend line, bearish order block) is a shallow retracement but the EUR/USD could react there in short term bearish move. POC2 is a deeper retracement that's in conjuction with high momentum price action. 1.1175-85 (61.8, monthly trend line, H3) is better retracement overall and overall both rejections could target 1.1025. 1.1025 is important level as the drop below would target 1.0990 then 1.0930 and 1.0865.

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/JPY Over-extension can spike the pair up to 133.25 and 134.60

Following Trump's historic Presidency election win, there was a sudden move for risk-off due to the uncertainties of his polices with safe-haven currencies like Yen, appreciating strongly. Nonetheless, once Trump in his acceptance speech concluded that the population must once again re-unite, he also signaled there would be more infrastructure spending and tax cuts, which boosted Equities instantly, and in particular risk-on barometer commodities like Copper and Iron ore. This caused immediate weakness in JPY.
Technically we have an over extension of the pair where today's ATR exceeded average 7/14 by 60 pips and the day is still far from over. H5 has been broken without any retracement. This huge over-extension can lead the pair towards 133.25 and 134.60 if wee a 4h close above 133.25 (historical bullish order block). POC comes within 130.25-55 zone (38.2, H4, bullish order block) but when trend is so strong the chance is that we might not see retracement towards POC or it might be shallow. My opinion is that POC could be reached only on strong profit taking. If we don't see any retracement watch for 4h close above 133.25 on way towards 134.60.