Technical Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

NZD/USD Weekly pinbar suggesting bearish pressure

The Kiwi - NZD/USD is riding higher time frame momentum. Piggyback weekly sell is reflecting on lower time frames where we could start searching for short trade opportunities. I see 2 possible scenarios. If the price proceeds below the 0.7220 and if we see 4h close below it, we could see 0.7195 and 0.7150. A pullback to POC (H3, DPP, EMA89, 38.2, inner trend line) 0.7260-75 could spike down the price towards 0.7220 and below. Judging from both weekly and daily trend and momentum, targets could be even lower then L5 is suggesting if the NZD/USD keeps dropping and we will assess it once (and if) the target L5 is reached.

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD supported at 88.6 fib

The GBP/USD is currently rejecting off 88.6 after it dropped straight from POC zone I showed in the live webinar. 88.6 has held the drop making a double bottom and the GBP/USD is rejecting. New POC comes around 1.2970-1.2990 (H3, WPP. 78.6, X-cross) and the rejection might spike it up to 1.3060 where we see a confluence of a steep trend line and previous top. Further advancement targets 1.3090 zone and ONLY above it there is a scope for 1.3170. If the 4h candle closes below 1.2930 then the price might proceed to 1.2865.

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/JPY Bearish M pattern but bullish price action

The dragon, GBP/JPY shows a huge M pattern on H1 time frame, but there are lack of sellers who could tank the price more to the downside. DAX has been bullish today despite problem with Deutsche Bank (DB). DAX had a massive gap down to start with and DB is down 4 % today. Only EU 13.9BN now of worth with a USD 14BN claim makes DB technically insolvent, and DAX might lose momentum to the upside that could reflect also on GBP/JPY pair that has a very high positive correlation with DAX.
Technically because we have 2 contradicting patterns we ideally want to see breakout. Above 131.45 there is a strong scope for 131.92 and 132.20, but if 131.45 rejects the price we might see 130.90 again. Below 130.90, 130.45 and 130.00 are targets. No man's land in between.

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD could possibly target 1.2796 short term

UK Prime Minister Theresa May said the U.K. would begin the formal process of leaving the European Union by the end of March 2017 and the pound was hit hard. Both technically and fundamentally the pair is aligned now and we might see a retest of 1.2796. At this point bears are in full control.

Bearish channel, inner trend line, 38.2, L3 and multiple rejections at POC 1.2915-30 might reject the price in the case of another retracement and if the pair proceeds below 1.2845 we might see 1.2796. In order to stay bearish short term the GBP/USD must stay below 1.2950.

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/JPY bearish channel in progress

The GBP/JPY has been contained within a bearish channel and it is bouncing from the support caused mainly by news that DB (Deutsche Bank) is closer to finalizing their claims with US regulator. German equities are up, FTSE is also up but GBP is still down as suggested in my previous GBP study.

Technically POC (H4, the top of the channel, 50.0, historical sellers) comes within 131.20-35 zone but we should also pay attention to H3/EMA89/38.2 strong resistance around 131.00 round number. The rejection is targeting 130.15 and on H1 momentum or H1 close below 130.07, next target is 129.75.

 

[Admiral Markets]

USD/CAD triangle breakout in uptrend

The USD/CAD broke through the symmetrical triangle and is heading towards H3 weekly pivot point. In the case the price stays above 1.3220 the pair should reach 1.3360 short term. The problem for bulls might be that the price is showing huge bearish divergence and in the case the price starts dropping, I would be watching for 1.3130-50 POC zone (L4, symmetrical triangle, historical buyers). Daily chart shows strong bullish candle too, so the scenarios are:

1.The price stays above H3 - 1.3220 and proceeds directly to 1.3300 and 1.3360.

2.Divergence plays out, price drops below 1.3220

3.Possible bounce within POC zone 1.3130-50 towards 1.3360.

If the price breaks below 1.3040 bullish scenario will be negated.

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/JPY bullish momentum is strong

The EUR/JPY has broken the trend line in a strong uptrend and that is the signal for a possible retracement. As we could see on yesterday Session Recap the GBP/JPY has respected bearish analysis/setup and I expect similar to happen with EUR/JPY as it is connected to Yen carry trades. POC zone comes within 114.55-70 (H3, bullish order block) and it is in a close vicinity of 50.0. In the case of deeper retracement next POC zones comes within 114.10-25 (L3,WPP, previous double top). The price could be rejected towards 115.40 and if we see a 4 hour close above 115.50 way towards 116.30 should be open.

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD watch for 1.2225-50 zone

The GBP/USD is still sold on rallies as analysed in our previous analysis. Today First Brexit hearing begins in the UK High Court and there could be some whipsaw movements in the currency pair. From technical perspective POC zone comes within 1.2225-50 and the zone is a bit wider due to high ATR. The pair is contained within the equidistant channel and we can spot a confluence of channel top, H3 and bearish order block. If the pair retraces to the zone we might see a rejection towards 1.2150 and 1.2090. Only a 4h close below 1.2090 could tank the pair lower to sub 1.2000 level 1.1990 where we see a confluence of H5 and channel bottom. However if the pair gets above 1.2300 we might see a breakout towards 1.2355 that will be a sign of a deeper retracement in the GBP/USD pair.

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/JPY contained in Rising Wedge pattern

The so popular "Dragon", or GBP/JPY currency pair has really showed substantial movement within the bearish context. At this point we can spot running (still shaping up) rising wedge pattern. The running rising wedge can occur after a sharp retracement to the top of the wedge and then fall or as the wedge breakout below the low. LVZ pattern (red rectangle) marks low volatility zone and we might expect movement soon. If the pair starts a retracement watch for 127.00-15 zone (LVZ, Bearish order block, EMA89) rejection. If we don't see any retracement a breakout below 126.35 might tank the pair down to 125.94. Only a 4h close below 125.94 might further weaken the pair towards 124.90.

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/AUD M double top shaping up

The EUR/AUD is making a progressive M pattern characterized by a double top which in turn makes a POC zone (H3, DPP, trend line) 1.4340-50. The move has already happened so any retest could reject the price again (2nd rejection). Ideally inner trend line should hold for continuation of bearish move. Further continuation is seen below the inner trend line and if H1 candle closes below 1.4280. Close below would target 1.4245 and h4 close below 1.4245 should aim for 1.4185.