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[Julia NordFX]

Forex forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF 28 November - 02 December 2016.


First, a review of last week’s forecast:


- As a reminder, last week more than half of oscillators indicated the overselling of the EUR/USD pair, which gave a reason to talk about a temporary pause in the pair’s southward movement. And so it happened. However, this can hardly be called a correction. It will be more precise to talk about a transition to a sideways trend with a Pivot Point of 1.0585. The pair has not yet been able to reach its goal, the minimum of 2015 at 1.0450, and has finished the week in the same place where it began: in the area of the Pivot level;


- With regard to the forecast for GBP/USD, 40% of analysts were in favour of the pair’s growth, whilst 20% favoured a sideways channel. Graphical analysis indicated the levels of 1.2270 and 1.2440 as boundaries of such a channel. The pair has indeed failed to cross the lower boundary and on Monday leapt upwards by 200 points, turning the level of 1.2440 into a Pivot Point. It moved along it for all four remaining days;


- However, USD/JPY has surely disappointed those 60% experts who had expected its decline. It moved sideways until mid-Wednesday, fluctuating slightly, almost as if it was wondering what direction to choose. The news that came from the US dispelled its doubts, and the pair went up sharply, rising by nearly 300 points. In total, over the past three weeks, the yen lost more than 1000 points to the dollar;


- USD/CHF: the experts' opinions diverged regarding the behaviour of this pair: 55% voted in favour of its growth, 45% voted for its fall. As a result, as is often the case, the pair mirrored the behaviour of EUR/USD, having returned to Monday’s values on Friday.


***

Forecast for the upcoming week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and brokerage companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:


- In their forecast for EUR/USD, all the indicators split themselves into two groups: the predictions on H4 foretell a sideways trend, whilst D1 clearly indicates a southward one. The opinion of the latter is supported by the vast majority (70%) of analysts, who identify the levels of 1.0500 and 1.0460 as potential support levels. The remaining 30% of experts believe that the pair will still rebound up to the 1.0650-1.0700 area. A compromise solution is offered by graphical analysis which draws a sideways channel with a quite wide range of 1.0500-1.0720. It should be kept in mind that on Friday 2 December the US employment data change (NFP) will be published, which is usually accompanied by significant dollar pairs spikes;


- Forecasts for GBP/USD suggest a lateral movement of this pair with a predominance of bullish trend. Such statements are based both on the readings of the indicators (65% are for growth, 35% have taken a neutral position), and on the opinion of analysts (35% are for growth, 35% predict a decline, 30% remain neutral). As for graphical analysis on D1, it suggests that the pair has reached its local maximum, and is now expected to decline first to the level of 1.2070, and then even lower to the support of 1.1945. The nearest resistance is in 1.2495-1.2515 zone; the next resistance levels are 1.2560 and 1.2675;


- USD/JPY: The forecast for this pair is almost completely identical to the one given for the previous week. Indicators clearly show the pair's growth, with half of the oscillators indicating that the pair is overbought. 55% of experts continue to expect a decline of the pair. This opinion is shared by graphical analysis on H4 as well, which points to respective support levels at 111.35, 110.80 and 109.80. As for the resistance levels, W1 and D1 clearly show that the pair has reached the corridor where it was moving in February-March 2016. Its upper boundary is within the 113.80-114.85 range, whilst the lower one, 110.80, coincides with the readings of graphical analysis;


- USD/CHF: It is clear that almost 100% of indicators look upward. The analysts’ opinions are the following: 45% predict growth, 30% a decline, and 25% a lateral trend. The latter opinion is also supported by graphical analysis, which points to a sideways movement in the 1.0100-1.01900 channel. The next resistance is at 1.0200 and the support levels are at 1.0060 and 1.0000. At the same time, we can reasonably assume a high chance that this week, just as in the previous one, the pair’s behaviour will once again constitute a mirror image of that of EUR/USD.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets; they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.


#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options

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[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 05 - 09 December 2016


First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- With a few minor allowances, last week's forecast for EUR/USD can be considered fulfilled. As a reminder, the indicators on H4 predicted a sideways trend, one third of the experts expected the pair to rebound into the 1.0650-1.0700 area, and the remainder referred to the level of 1.0500 as a support level. Graphical analysis pointed to the sideways channel in the 1.0500-1.0720 range. The pair did, in fact, end up spending the whole week traveling eastwards. However, the pair never actually managed to reach the aforementioned support level: this week’s low-point was 50 points higher at 1.0551. However, it entered the resistance zone three times, reaching the level of 1.0690 on Friday;

- The forecast for GBP/USD was talking about a lateral movement of this pair with a dominant bullish trend. However, it turned out that the "dominant" did not do the bulls justice as a descriptor. From Monday to Wednesday the pair, as expected, was moving sideways, oscillating in the 1.2385-1.2530 range. After that, however the bulls, regaining their strength, made a great stride northwards, and in a matter of hours won 200 points from the bears. As a result, the pair finished the week at the level of 1.2730;

- Giving the outlook for USD/JPY, we noted that the pair had reached the corridor where it was moving in February-March 2016. Its upper boundary was within 113.80-114.85, whilst the lower boundary was at 110.80. At the same time, resting on the assumption that the pair was overbought, 55% of the experts expected a decline of the pair at least to the level of 111.35. That is exactly what happened. On Monday, the pair went down precisely to the aforementioned support, then turned around and went to the upper boundary of the corridor, stopping at the height of 114.82. Then it rebounded and completed the week’s session in the 113.50 area;

- USD/CHF. Here, as it often happens, graphical analysis proved to be almost 100 percent accurate, pointing to a sideways trend within the 1.0100-1.0190 range. In fact, the pair kept within the 1.0070-1.0200 range, meaning that the forecast error did not exceed the typical margin of 25-30 points.

***

Forecast for the upcoming week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and brokerage companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:


- Predicting the future of EUR/USD, the indicators on H4 actively recommend its purchase. D1 indicators, on the other hand, have taken a neutral position. 65% of analysts tend to the view that the pair will again test the December 2015 low at 1.0510 and will possibly descend to the March 2015 low of 1.0460. As for graphical analysis, it clarifies that a significant upward rebound to the resistance in the 1.0900 zone may follow. It should be noted that at the time of this forecast’s writing the results of the referendum in Italy are still unknown. It is only natural to assume that these results can make significant adjustments to the determination of euro currency pair rates;

- It is absolutely clear that when predicting the future of GBP/USD almost all indicators point to the growth of the pair, with only a fifth of the oscillators saying that it is overbought. However, the opinion of the majority of experts (65%) and graphical analysis on D1 is diametrically opposite. According to their forecast, the pair must first descend to the level of 1.2510 and then proceed to go even lower to the support at 1.2385 and 1.2300. The resistance will be in the 1.2865-1.3015 zone;

- USD/JPY. Just as in the GBP/USD case, the indicators suggest purchasing the pair and the majority of experts (55%) recommend selling it. Graphical analysis seems to provide a compromise view: according to its readings, the pair will continue to fluctuate within the boundaries of the February-March 2016 corridor. In other words, it will first rise again to the upper border of 114.85 and then fall to the level of 110.80;

- Now onto USD/CHF. Here, 70% of experts, graphical analysis, and 80% of indicators on H4 vote for the fall of the pair at least to the level of 1.0000, or indeed even lower to the 0.9900 vicinity. An alternative point of view is expressed by the remaining 30% of analysts and the indicators on D1: according to them the pair will continue to stay in the side channel in the range 1.0070-1.0200 for some time.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.


#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options http://nordfx.com/

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[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 12-16 December 2016


First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- Last week’s forecast for EUR/USD considered a number of scenarios, all of which came true with a close to 100% accuracy.

Let us start with the fact that on December 2, when giving an interview to one of the world’s reputable financial publications, NordFX Senior Analyst John Gordon warned that, in connection with the referendum in Italy, it was likely that there would be a gap at the opening of the week's session. He also said that, despite the increased volatility, nothing close to the exchange rate jumps following Brexit would occur. This forecast proved to be true.

65% of surveyed analysts believed that the pair would once again test the end-of-year low of 2015 at the level of 1.0510. On Monday, the pair indeed fell to the 1.0505 mark. Graphical analysis specified that this might be followed by a serious rebound to the resistance in the 1.0900 zone. And on Thursday, following the news from the ECB, the pair rose to the level of 1.0873. Then it went down to the main support line for the end of November, consistent with the indicator readings on D1, which had been suggesting a medium-term sideways trend;


- As for the behaviour of GBP/USD, there was a dispute last week between the indicators and the experts. Most of the former pointed to the north, even though they signalled that the pair was overbought. The latter insisted that the pair should go down at least to the level of 1.2510. They turned out to be closer to the truth. Despite the slight increase in the pair at the beginning of the week, starting Tuesday it abruptly went down- by Friday it had lost more than 200 points;

- The main forecast for USD/JPY was based on the fact that the pair would continue fluctuations within the boundaries of the February-March 2016 corridor. In general, this version proved to be correct, with some predominance of bullish sentiment towards the end of the week;

- USD/CHF. Here, 70% of experts, graphical analysis, and 80% of indicators on H4 voted for the pair's drop to at least the level of 1.0000. On Thursday, as predicted, the pair fell to the 1.0020 mark. After completing the task, it seemed to have decided to appease the remaining 30% of analysts, who spoke of a sideways trend, and rose first to the lower border (1.0070) and then to the top border (1.0200) of the aforementioned channel.


***

Forecast for the upcoming week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and brokerage companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:


- Predicting the future of EUR/USD, most indicators are actively advocating the sale of this pair even though on H4 25% of them say it is oversold. The analysts are divided along the following lines: 50% believe in the pair’s upward rebound, 35% support a continuation of the downward trend, and the remaining 15% vote for its lateral movement. Graphical analysis, as it often happens, points to a compromise. According to its readings, the pair may first rebound to the 1.0650 resistance and then continue to the south - first to the 1.0510 support and then, perhaps, even further to the March 2015 lows in the 1.0460 vicinity. At the same time, we must note that a decision by the US Federal Reserve on the interest rate is pending on Wednesday 14 December, and if it is finally increased, it could significantly strengthen the dollar against other world currencies;

- With regard to the future of GBP/USD, some 60% of experts believe that the pair will go down to the 1.2400-1.2500 zone. However, as in the case of EUR/USD, a number of indicators say it is oversold. Thus, it can be assumed that the pair will stay in a lateral channel within 1.2550-1.2700 for a while. Both indicators and graphical analysis on D1 agree with this;

- USD/JPY. Most likely, for the first half of the week the pair will try to stay within the boundaries of the horizontal corridor, which it first entered two weeks ago. Its more distant future, as mentioned above, will be determined by the decision of the US Federal Reserve on interest rates, in anticipation of which the bullish sentiment will continue to dominate. The support levels are 114.40, 113.10, 112.00. The resistance levels are at 116.70 and 118.70;

- USD/CHF. Here, 70% of experts, graphical analysis, and most indicators on H4 and D1 believe that the pair will continue to grow. The 2015 maximum (1.0300) is hailed as the target. After it is reached, according to graphical analysis readings, the pair may once again fall into the 1.0050-1.0115 zone.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options

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[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for

19 - 23 December 2016


First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which has been almost 100% correct for all four pairs:

- The final forecast for the EUR/USD pair last week was as follows: first a rebound to the resistance at 1.0650 and then a drop to the March 2015 lows in the 1.0460 area. It also suggested a strengthening of the downward trend in the event the US Federal Reserve decided to increase interest rates. This forecast can be considered fulfilled almost completely. At the beginning of the week, as expected, the pair rose to the level of 1.0650 and then made several attempts to break higher, but was unable to overcome the 1.0670 bar. The decision of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, 14th December delivered the expected strengthening of the dollar, and the pair initially fell to the level of 1.0470 and then even lower to 1.0366. The pair reached 1.0449 by the end of the week’s session;

- The forecast for GBP/USD stated that the pair would stay in the sideways channel of 1.2550-1.2700 for some time in the beginning of the week. It would then go down to the 1.2400-1.2500 zone. That was what actually ended up happening, allowing for a standard sway of 25 points;

- With regard to USD/JPY, a rather quiet start of the week dominated by slight bullish sentiment was assumed. Then, after the decision of the US Federal Reserve, we assumed a rise to the resistance at 118.70. This prediction proved to be correct, and on Thursday, 15th December, the pair reached a height of 118.66 before proceeding to move sideways, finishing the week in the 117.90 zone;

- The forecast for USD/CHF has not been disappointing either. According to most experts, graphical analysis, and indicators on H4 and D1, the pair was supposed to revisit the 2015 maximum of 1.0300. That is what it did, even managing to exceed the expectations of the task by reaching a height of 1.0343.

***

Forecast for the upcoming week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and brokerage companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:


- A few months ago, we published the opinions of a number of experts suggesting that EUR/USD would seek to achieve an exchange rate parity of 1.0000 in the upcoming year (2017). It seems that this forecast is coming true. At least 60% of analysts, 85% of indicators, and graphical analysis on D1 believe that in the near future the pair will continue to fall at least to the 1.0300-1.0350 area. It is worth noting that the pair has fallen so low that, when determining the support level, it is necessary to work not just with the data for the last two years, but also with that from 1997-2003.

An alternative point of view is expressed by the remaining 40% of experts and the numerous oscillators, which indicate that the pair has been oversold. According to their forecast, the pair has reached its local minimum, so in the foreseeable future will be moving in a sideways channel with a Pivot Point of 1.0500;


- With regard to the future of GBP/USD, 60% of experts and the majority of indicators support the continuation of the downward trend, naming the support at 1.2300 as the nearest target. At the same time, graphical analysis clarifies that the pair may stay in a sideways corridor within 1.2360-1.2560 for some more time before the decline. It should be noted, however, that when giving a medium-term forecast, 70% of analysts believe that the pair should sink to the level of 1.2100;

- USD/JPY. It is clear that most of the indicators point northwards. However, a third of the oscillators indicates the pair has been overbought. Graphical analysis points to a possible downwards rebound as well, naming 115.45, 114.80 and 113.90 as support levels. As for the experts, 30% of them believe that the pair will grow to a height of 120.00. The majority, though, expect a sideways trend with a Pivot Point of 118.00;

- USD/CHF. More than half of the experts believe that the pair will try to gain a foothold above 1.0300, the main resistance being 1.0410. Graphical analysis on D1 and 95% of indicators on D1 and H4 agree with this point of view. The main support is 1.0200, with the next one being at 1.0150.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options

http://nordfx.com/

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for 26-30 December 2016


First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- Giving the forecast for the EUR/USD pair, 60% of analysts, 85% of indicators, and graphical analysis on D1 pointed out that the pair should continue to fall to the 1.0300-1.0350 area at the very least. That was indeed what happened: on Monday the pair descended drastically and hit 1.0351 the next day, short of the intended target by just 1 point. Evidently deciding that it fulfilled its task, the pair rebounded and returned to the values of the beginning of the week;

- The forecast for the GBP/USD pair may also be considered fulfilled by at least 90%, if not 100%. Recall that the majority of experts voted for the continuation of the downward trend, naming the support at 1.2300 as the nearest target. This was reached by the pair on Thursday. After this, the support changed roles, becoming resistance. The pair rebounded off it and subsequently fell by 50 points;

- USD/JPY. Here, one third of oscillators and graphical analysis suggested a possible downwards rebound of the pair. As for the analysts, most foresaw a sideways trend with a Pivot Point at 118.00. The fact that the pair was overbought did indeed push it down at the very start of the week’s session. Then, having rebounded off the level of 116.55 as was expected by the experts, it returned to the 118.00 zone and shifted to a slightly bear-dominated lateral movement of diminishing amplitude;

- USD/CHF. Here, more than half of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, and 95% indicators on H4 and D1, suggested that the pair would try to gain a foothold above the level of 1.0300. However, it seems that the proximity of the Christmas holidays weakened the strength of bulls so significantly, that having reached the height of 1.0320, the pair almost immediately turned around and returned to the values of Monday, where it stayed until the end of the week.

***

The forecast for the upcoming week - the last one before the New Year:

The market’s major players have already summed up the year, and most analysts have already left for Christmas. Therefore, the forecast for this festive week is based mainly on technical analysis. No major events that could shake the financial markets, are expected in the coming days, and traders can expect a very quiet and relaxing five days ahead. Unless, of course, something extraordinary happens.

- The medium-term forecast that analysts released last week does not give a clear picture of the future of EUR/USD: 35% of them predict an upward trend, 40% a downward trend, and 25% a side movement. As for technical analysis, graphical analysis on H4, and the vast majority of trend indicators and oscillators, all of them point eastwards. Those on D1, on the other hand, indicate to the south. Based on the above, we can assume that next week the pair will move in a sideways channel in the 1.0350-1.0520 range. As for its further decline, it is necessary to take into account that at present the pair is near the bottom border of the side corridor, which was launched back in February-March 2015, and that any future strengthening of the dollar will largely depend on the actions of team of the US President elect, Donald Trump;


- In contrast to the European currency, analysts consider the British pound’s future to be more definite. Thus, in the medium term, 65% of them support a fall in GBP/USD down to the October low of 1.1940, and only 5% expect the pair's growth. 100% of indicators and graphical analysis on D1 agree with the majority of experts. However, on a shorter timeframe - specifically H4 - the forecast for the coming week includes a flat trend in the 1.2215-1.2325 range. The next resistance is at 1.2375;

- USD/JPY. It is clear that most of the indicators on D1 point northwards, with which their colleagues on H4 disagree, indicating the pair to be oversold. This opinion is shared by graphical analysis on H4, which sketches a decline of the pair to 115.50, followed by a rebound the previous week’s values in the 117.50 zone. As for the graphical analysis on D1, it foresees a lateral channel with support at 116.50 (should that be ruptured the new support will be 115.50) and resistance at 119.00. Here we can mention the upcoming speech of the Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda on Monday, 26 December - that is unlikely to seriously influence the behaviour of this pair;

- Opinions on the future of USD/CHF tend mostly towards the pair’s growth to the 1.0300-1.0400 area. This point of view is shared not only by three-quarters of analysts, but also by indicators on H4 and D1, as well as by graphical analysis using a daily time-frame. An alternative view is supported by 25% of experts and graphical analysis on H4. In their opinion, the pair should once again test the December low at 1.0000.

The next forecast will be devoted to the events of the first week of January. Dear colleagues, it seems, therefore, that now would be the time to wish you a Happy New Year!

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options

http://nordfx.com/

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for 02-06 January 2017


First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– We know that "thin" market and low liquidity in the pre New Year's week can work wonders. For the first half of the week the EUR/USD pair, as expected, remained in a slow sideways trend. Then on Wednesday, it slumped 100 points. On Thursday it played back what it lost.Then,the beginning of the Asian session on Friday presented the traders a "New Year" surprise - in just one hour, for no apparent reason, the pair made a sharp leap upwards and hit 1.0655, after which it returned to the levels of support of the second half of November;

–Theforecast for GBP/USD predicted the pair's movement in the side channel in the range of 1.2215-1.2325.1.2375 was identified as the week's high. In general, this forecast proved to be correct - for the whole week the pair oscillated in the range 1.2200-1.2305, and on Friday, breaking through the upper boundary of the corridor, it reached the height of 1.2385;

– For USD/JPY, graphical analysis on D1 anticipated the movement of the pair in the channel 116.50-119.00, whilst H4 suggested the channel 115.50-117.50. It turned out that the first was right in determining the local minimum - 116.30, and the latter was right regarding the maximum - 117.80;

– USD/CHF. Here, 75% of experts, supported by indicators H4 and D1 and technical analysis on the daily time frame, voted for the pair to grow to the 1.0300-1.0400 area. By the middle of the week, it actually did rise to the height of 1.0320. The remaining 25% of experts expected a decline of the pair to the December low at 1.0000, and on Friday, mirror copying the behaviour of EUR/USD, the pair rushed down, reaching the bottom at the level of 1.0059.

***

Forecast for the upcoming week:

Summing up the opinions of a number of analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:


– The consensus of analysts in the first week of the New Year can be called unique - 100% voted for the fall of the EUR/USD and its return to the zone 1.0350-1.04800, Pivot Point at 1.0430. Graphical analysis and oscillators on the D1 agree with such a forecast, indicating that the pair is overbought. As for the graphical analysis on H4, it does not rule out that prior tofalling, the pair may attempt to re-test the 1.0655 high of December 30;

– In the case of GBP/USD, most experts (75%) also expect the movement of the pair southwards - to the October lows in the 1.2080 zone. Indicators and graphical analysis on D1 agree with this version as well. But as for a shorter time frame, H4, the picture is diametrically opposite - in the short term technical analysis points to a possible growth of the pair to the resistance 1.2380 and further - to a height of 1.2500;

– USD/JPY. The vast majority of indicators (70%) have taken a neutral position. Readings of graphical analysis on H4 can be called neutral as well, they point to a sideways trend in the range of 116.00-118.65 with a predominance of bullish sentiment. 80% of analysts are also on the bulls' side. An alternative view is represented by graphical analysis on D1. According to its readings, the pair must first go down to the 114.75 support and only then rush to the height of 118.65. In case of breaking down, the next support level is at 113.10;

– Most likely, next week the USD/CHF pair will continue to mirror the movement of EUR/USD. That is why 100% of experts predict it to rise to the 1.0220-1.0320 area. As for technical analysis, as it often happens, the indicators on H4 and D1 have occupied opposite positions. Whilst analysis on D1 supportsthe analysts,on H4, oscillators, trend indicators as well as graphical analysis indicate the pair'sdrive toward the 1.0000 mark.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options

http://nordfx.com/

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for 09-13 January 2017


First, a review of last week’s forecast:


– Recall that in the first week of the New Year analysts demonstrated a unique consensus: 100% believed that the EUR/USD would fall to the 1.0350-1.04800 area. They turned out to be 100% correct. On Monday the pair crept up to the level of 1.0480, and on Tuesday, having mobilized all their forces, the bears blitzed to the south and literally dropped the pair to the 1.3400 mark. However, this task proved to be exhausting and the bulls were able to not only win back the lost positions, but also return the pair to the Pivot Point of the last eight weeks of 2016 in the 1.0525 area;


– In the case of GBP/USD, most experts (75%) also expected a southward movement of the pair to the October lows in the 1.2080 zone. The pair rushed down straight away on Monday. However, after failing to break the 1.2200 support, it made a meteoric rise of 230 points, followed by a no less dizzying drop of 170 points and eventually finished the week at 1.2275, the place where it spent most of the last ten days of December;


– For USD/JPY, 80% of analysts, supported by 70% of indicators and graphical analysis on H4, assumed a sideways trend within 116.00-118.65 with a predominance of bullish sentiment. They turned out to be right - for the whole first half of the week, the pair moved exactly like that, reaching the height of 118.60 on Tuesday. An alternative view was represented by graphical analysis on D1. According to its readings, the pair was supposed to first go down to the support at 114.75, which is what happened, but only on Friday. Having felt the local minimum at 115.05, it rebounded upwards and the week ended in the same place where it began: in the 117.00 zone;


– USD/CHF. The forecast for this pair was absolutely correct as well. Recall that 100% of experts predicted its rise to the 1.0220-1.0320 area, and on Tuesday the pair obediently reached the height of 1.0334. As for technical analysis, both oscillators and trend indicators as well as graphical analysis on H4 indicated the pair's strive to the 1.0000 mark. As a result, the rise was followed by a sharp descent of 250 points. However, the pair didn't manage to reach the level of 1.0000, and having turned around at 1.0086, like USD / JPY, returned to the values of the beginning of the week.


***

Forecast for the coming week:

Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:


– Speaking about the near future for the EUR/USD, 60% of analysts believe that the level of 1.0525 should become the resistance for the pair, fighting from which the pair will occasionally go down to the 1.0350 support zone. The 1.0400 horizon should become a Pivot Point in this side channel. Having said that, graphical analysis on D1 does not exclude that, before going down, the pair can try again to climb to the height of 1.0650 at the start of the week.

It should also be borne in mind that certain adjustments in the formation of the medium-term trends can be made by the ECB meeting, press conference by Donald Trump in the middle of the week and the speech of the US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen at the end of the week. As for the long-term outlook, most analysts expect the pair to decrease by the end of 2017 to the level of 1.0000 and even below parity, to 0.9000;


– Regarding the behaviour of GBP/USD, there is no consensus either among experts or among trend indicators and oscillators. About one third of them vote for an increase, a third support a fall and the rest believe the pair will move to the east. When it comes to the readings of graphical analysis, on D1 it points to the side corridor in the range of 1.2270-1.2430 for this week. If it succeeds in breaking the upper border of the channel, the pair may rise by another 100 points: to the level of 1.2530. As for the forecast for the coming months, about 70% of experts vote for the decline of the pair to last year's lows in the area of 1.1950-1.2000;


–USD/JPY. As the Bank of Japan is likely to maintain a similar direction in monetary policy, the behaviour of this pair will largely depend on the actions of the new US administration. That is why, as in the case with the GBP/USD, it is impossible to compile some sort of consensus from analysts opinions. However, in the medium term bullish sentiment prevails associated with the strengthening of the dollar and the pair’s efforts to reach 120.00 and beyond. As for graphical analysis, on H4 it suggests a movement of the pair in the 115.00-118.60 channel, and on D1 it does not preclude its temporary decline to the 113.00 area;


–Finally, the last pair of our review: USD/CHF. Despite the discord of indicators more inclined to sell, the vast majority of experts (75%) believe that the pair will eventually go up to the 1.2000-1.3000 area and even higher - to the December highs at the height of 1.3400. The reason for such expectations is understandable. Namely, it is the strengthening of the dollar due to Trump administration's actions and interest rate hikes planned by the US Fed in 2017.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.


#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options

http://nordfx.com/

 

[Julia NordFX]

10 Threats to European Currencies

2016 has been marked by a number of events that strongly affected financial markets. First and foremost is, of course, Brexit, the election of Donald Trump as US President, as well as persistent rumours of a possible disintegration of the European Union, which have seriously changed the balance of forces in the struggle of major world currencies.

So what should be expected from the pound, dollar, euro and yen in the new 2017?


With respect to the European currency, the forecasts look rather pessimistic. Referring to the European Central Bank (ECB) data, The Wall Street Journal estimates that capital outflows from the euro area reached their highest level since the introduction of the euro in 1999, and the currency itself has updated 13 years’ lows.

According to analysts, chances of an ECB interest rate increase do not exist, while the US Federal Reserve (Fed) not only lifted the rate by 0.25% in mid-December 2016, but also foresees three other similar increases throughout 2017.

Citigroup specialists expect the US currency to continue to grow. Further to that, the bank's strategist Todd Elmer said in an interview with Bloomberg: “We might see a much more rapid appreciation of the dollar than many in the market expect." The reason for this, in the first place, lies in the fact that the Fed will raise rates at a faster pace than initially expected. The head of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen has noted that the rise in rates is a sign of confidence in the American economy, and that the Fed will take into account a possible increase in tax incentives promised by President Trump.

"It is possible,” says the leading analyst of the NordFX brokerage company John Gordon, “that in the context of the events that may occur in Europe, Brexit will seem like a nuisance. For some reason, only the upcoming elections in Germany and France and the migrant crisis are usually talked about when listing risks. But in fact, the list of threats that the euro faces is far from exhausted by them. I can name at least another six or seven.”

“Someone has decided all of a sudden that the economic crisis in Greece reached its peak in the summer of 2015. But this is not true – it suffices to say that at the end of 2016, the tax debt of Greek residents reached an astronomical figure for the country of 94.2 billion euros. It is quite probable that this will very soon 100 billion, while there is no reason to expect opposite, positive dynamics.”

“Financial problems similar to the Greek ones can be seen in Italy and Spain. Only, unlike the Greek case, they are intensified by separatist sentiments amongst some parts of the respective populations in these countries. Recall the December referendum in Italy or the tension between the Madrid and the Catalan authorities in Spain.”

“Let's add to this the rise of the extreme right in Austria, the discontent with the migration policy in Hungary and the worsening of relations between Turkey and Europe, on the back of which President Erdogan has once again started to build up relations with Russia.”

“Only when we add to all this the local or parliamentary elections, which are scheduled for this year in a number of EU countries,” continues the NordFX analyst, “do we start realising what hard times are coming up for the EU as a whole and the euro in particular."

“If a few months ago major currency players retained some optimism about the future of the euro, now many of them have already revised their forecasts downwards.”

According to the British firm IHS Markit, the euro will reach parity with the dollar by the end of 2017. Royal Bank of Scotland analysts agree with this view. Due to the extension of the ECB's program to buy € 80 billion assets a month, they say, the EUR/USD pair will be able to stay in the range of 1.00-1.10. But the major investment bank Goldman Sachs has lowered its forecast below parity, from 1.00 to 0.90.

If we talk about the British currency, despite the Brexit (or indeed because of it), its future looks more optimistic than that of euro.

JPMorgan bankers believe that the rate of GBP may increase or decrease by 5-10%, depending on the UK government's actions with respect to accessing the single market. “The pound is facing periodic bouts of volatility and may change direction several times depending on political decisions,” says Paul Meggyesi of JP Morgan. As for the forecast, the bank's experts believe that the GBP / USD pair will be in the area of 1.26 by the end of 2017.

The currency strategists from ANZ Bank and ABN Amro believe that the pound will be weaker against the dollar, but will strengthen its position relative to the euro. “This is because”, says the ABN AMRO analyst Georgette Boele, “the political uncertainty in the euro area will put pressure on the euro across the board. Brexit is no longer the centre of attention in the financial markets, so the pound is likely to be relatively stable.”

The USD/JPY pair, according to the Royal Bank of Scotland, will be traded in the range of 110-120 throughout 2017, as the Bank of Japan will maintain monetary policy parameters stable and will continue to keep the yield on 10-year bonds (JGB) near zero. As for the experts from IHS Markit, they believe that thanks to the strengthening of the dollar, the pair will reach the 126 mark.

"The actions of Trump's administration and rate hikes by the Fed,” says John Gordon of NordFX, “will lead to the unwinding of inflation and the weakening of the national currency in a number of countries that are dependent on the US Dollar." At the same time, according to Bloomberg, the Russian rouble looks very promising for investors in 2017 when we consider emerging markets. According to the UBS Group AG estimates, the return on investment of the rouble on the carry trade strategy will be 26%, and this will be the best result among the markets of Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

The list of attractive countries less dependent on the risks associated with the actions of the USA also includes Mexico, Brazil, Chile, South Africa, India and Indonesia.

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for 16-20 January 2017


First, a review of last week’s forecast:


- The behaviour of the EUR/USD pair did not deliver any surprises in the first half of the week. First, as predicted by graphical analysis, it attempted to climb to the height of 1.0650. Having almost reached the intended target (1.0627), the pair reversed and, following the forecast of most analysts, it began to descend to the 1.0350-1.0525 zone. The trend was then altered by the ECB meeting, the press conference by Donald Trump, and the speech of the Governor of the Bank of England M. Carney. Those events led the pair to return to the level of 1.0625 and then rise another 50 points to the height of 1.0685, once it had kicked off from the level of 1.0453;


- GBP/USD. Regarding the behaviour of this pair both experts and indicators were divided into three roughly equal groups: one third of them believed it would fall, one third believed it would grow, and the remainder believed the pair would move eastwards. The pair ended up fulfilling all these wishes: first it went down to the level of 1.2035, and then, reacting to the events listed above, it rose to the height of 1.2316 and eventually finished the week midway between these two values - in the area that has been acting as a support level during the first two weeks of January;


- In the case of the USD/JPY, analysts just shrugged their shoulders, anticipating the release of news from the US. As for graphical analysis, following the readings on H4, the pair fell to the lows of the previous week in the 115.05-115.20 area. After a short respite it rushed further down, which had been predicted by graphical analysis on D1. It reached a local bottom at 113.75;


- Recall that the opinions of experts and technical analysis on the behaviour of the USD/CHF pair were geometrically opposed. The former predicted its growth to the values of 1.0200-1.0300, and the pair went up exactly to the middle of this zone: 1.0247. The latter were, for the most part, inclined to sell it, and by the end of the week the pair fell to a level that was approximately 100 points lower than where it was at the start.


***

Forecast for the coming week:


Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:


- Regarding the near future of EUR/USD, 60% of analysts, supported by indicators on H4, believe that the pair may rise to the 1.0700-1.0800 area. An alternative view is represented by 40% of experts, graphical analysis on W1 and 90% of oscillators. According to them, the pair will strive towards the support in the area of 1.0480-1.0510, and then even further to the December lows at 1.0350–1.0370. Meanwhile, graphical analysis on D1 does not exclude the possibility that before going down, the pair may once again try to climb to the height of 1.0650, which would happen at the start of the week.


- As for the behaviour of the GBP/USD pair, experts still cannot come to an agreement. About half of them are backing the bulls, believing that the pair will move to northwards. Graphical analysis agrees with this view of events as well, with H4 drawing the corridor of 1.2100-1.2315 for the pair. D1 sets targets that are even more ambitious, being in the area of 1.2400-1.2500. The remaining 50% of experts, as well as trend indicators and oscillators, disagree with such a forecast, believing that the pair should test the second support zone of 1.2000-1.2035;


- USD/JPY. When it comes to forecasting the next few days, the majority of experts and indicators on H4 and D1 believe that the pair has not yet reached the local minimum in the area of 113.00. In the medium term, the picture is quite different - about 70% of analysts, graphical analysis on D1 and indicators on W1 vote for the strengthening of the dollar and the rise of the pair to the resistance at 118.65. In the case of a breakthrough through this resistance, they believe the pair will rise even higher to the 121.00 level;


- We can observe a pattern similar to the one for USD/JPY with USD/CHF. 65% of experts, trend indicators and graphical analysis on H4, as well as oscillators on H4 and D1 strongly advise to sell the pair, believing that it will reach the 0.9950-1.0000 area. As for the medium term, the forecast remains the same: the vast majority of experts (75%), with the full support of technical and graphical analysis, are convinced that the pair will eventually rise again to the 1.0200-1.0300 area or even higher: to the December highs at 1.0340.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.


#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options

http://nordfx.com/

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for 23-27 January 2017


First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- The main forecast for the EUR/USD pair had said that early in the week the pair could rise to 1.0685 or even higher to the 1.0700-1.0800 area. This is what happened in reality. By just Tuesday, the pair reached the 1.0720 level, before returning 130 points downwards and jumping back up again, finishing the week near the 1.0700 mark;

- GBP/USD. Regarding the behaviour of this pair, 50% of the experts predicted its movement to the north and graphical analysis indicated a target in the area of 1.2400-1.2500. This turned out to be 100% correct. In the first half of the week, the pair did the seemingly impossible: inspired by the speeches of the Governor of the Bank of England M. Carney and the British Prime Minister T. May, as well as by optimistic indicators of the economy of this island state, the pair leapt upwards by 430 points and returned to the strong level support/resistance of the last four months in the 1.2385-1.2415 zone;

- In the case of USD/JPY, most experts and indicators on H4 and D1 had expected the pair to descend to a local minimum in the area of 113.00, after which it had been expected to turn around and go north. In reality, the pair surpassed these expectations, marking the minimum as 45 points lower than predicted at the level of 112.56. This was followed by the scheduled rebound and the pair returned to the 114.60 mark, to the upper boundary of the February-March 2016 corridor;

- USD/CHF. 65% of experts, trend indicators and graphical analysis on H4, as well as oscillators on H4 and D1 had strongly advised to sell the pair, believing that it would definitely reach the 0.9950-1.0000 zone. Those traders who followed this advice, were able to profit considerably. Mirroring the movements of EUR/USD, the pair recorded the minimum at the level of 0.9995 on Tuesday.


***

Forecast for the coming week:

Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:


- It is clear that, speaking of the near future of EUR/USD, the vast majority (80%) of trend indicators look northwards. Meanwhile, one third of the oscillators indicates that the pair is overbought. About 60% of analysts together with graphical analysis on D1 expect it to descend to the level of 1.0500. After that, in their view, the pair will be able to return to the 1.0650 resistance;

- A similar picture emerges with respect to the behaviour of the GBP/USD as well. Most indicators on H4 vote for the growth of the pair, whilst on D1 they do not exclude the beginning of a fall. 65% of experts are also in agreement with the bears. The nearest support level is 1.2300, with the next one being 1.2200. The bottom is in the area of the minimum of October 2016 at 1.1950-1.2000. As for graphical analysis, it draws a corridor with a relatively large range on D1, the low being 1.2000 and the high being1.2420. The next resistance is 1.2550;

- USD/JPY. Trend indicators in this case, have taken a neutral position. The readings of oscillators differ: on H4 they insist on buying, and on D1 they insist on selling. There is no unity among the experts and graphical analysis either. The majority of the former (60%), insist that the pair will go up to the 116.00-117.50 area. The latter, both on H4 and D1, believe that it must first once again test the January lows of 113.00 and 112.55;

- As for the last pair of our review, USD/CHF, 75% of the experts along with graphical analysis expect a sideways trend within 0.9995-1.0200. An alternative view sees the pair going down to the level of 0.9900. However, this can only happen in the event of any significant economic or political developments in the EU and the USA, which are not expected next week.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.


#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options

http://nordfx.com/