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[Julia NordFX]

July 2016: TOP 10 Trading Signals Viewed by Analyst of NordFX


The vast majority of the traders using MT4 terminals are certainly familiar with an opportunity of automatic trading by means of the 'Signals' service integrated into this platform. The main difficulty while subscribing is a selection of the most appropriate signals in terms of combination of risk and profitability.

Unfortunately, the analysis shows that many traders/investors pay attention only to the last of all parameters, neglecting possible risks, and it results in negative impact on their deposits.

In order to help traders avoid these mistakes, monthly, for more than two years, the leading specialist of NordFX broker company, John Gordon, analyzes the choice of subscribers, making recommendations on how to get the maximum profit in case at minimal risks.


As of the end of July TOP-10 most popular signals among subscribers is as follows:

I. MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 (growth 86%, 784 subscribers),

II. Stable Forex Profit (growth 16293%, 257 subscribers),

III. Lemar Analytics ECN (growth 131%, 197 subscribers),

IV. Revolution(growth 3987%, 143 subscribers),

V. Arrow (growth 1853%, 112 subscribers),

VI. F Cracker (growth 201%, 102 subscribers),

VII. Lemar Investment Group (growth 942%, 101 subscribers),

VIII. Q2FX 1 (growth 2189%, 119 subscribers),

IX. LVIK Forex Commo (growth 29%, 125 subscribers),

X. Setka Real2 (growth 1043%, 69 subscribers).


"The July list of top signals”, begins the overview J. Gordon, "was updated, as compared to June Top, by only 30%, the key positions were taken by old players, on which I will focus today."


“MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 signal has been taking the Ist place for the third consecutive month. With this, I'd like to pay your attention, that it has been among Top 3 signals during the entire 2016: January – the second place, February, March, April – the third place, and during the last three months – it proved to be an absolute leader with 784 subscribers, which have entrusted management of around one million dollars to the author of this signal management. Even though, its profitability seems to be more, than modest. Where others show a growth of hundreds and thousands of percents, it showed a growth of only 27% in last seven months

So why is it so popular? I guess, there are three reasons:

- the first one – the life span of the signal, 123 weeks in the market without loss of a deposit is already a certain guarantee;

- the second reason is a very small drawdown. It didn't not exceed 19% during these two and a half years, and in 2016 the maximum drawdown didn't exceed 3%.

- and, finally, the third one - subscription to this signal is absolutely free, that is important for investors with small deposits.


The second place in the rating is taken by Stable Forex Profit signal, it considerably differs from the first one. Suffice to say, that over seven months of this year the deposit growth made 780%. The signal is 83 weeks old, and that is a significant life span. However, on July 8, when the USA unemployment data were released, his author let himself quite a risky trading, and therefore his depositing made 72%. The maximum drawdown on this signal makes 55%, which is rather dangerous for those investors who used large bonuses on the deposit from their brokers.”


“Let me speak aside", the leading analyst of NordFX continues. "Good thing about the 'Signals' service, developed by the MetaQuotes Software Corp., is that it provides investors the data of online monitoring on more than 50 parameters, which allows evaluating a given signal fully and properly. Furthermore, the users of this service can carry on a direct correspondence with developers of signals and rate them.

So, for example, you can read how the subscribers to the signal Stable Forex Profit express their displeasure to its author (which, by the way, promised to change ‘the way of trading to a more cautious, aiming to keep DD within 10-20%’) at the most critical moments of trade.

In my opinion, such an on-line chat with subscribers and their reaction are rather useful addition to the parameters of the technical analysis and give additional information for evaluation of signal quality. So, in respect of the number of signals, for instance, the subscribers complain about slippage, as a result of which their results, when copying, appear to be significantly lower, than the results of the author of the signal. It is very important information, worth paying attention to, especially in case of pips strategies.


And, finally, one more signal which ranks among the popularity TOP among subscribers for the fifth month in a row is Q2FX_1 – impressive profit of 2189% with an admissible maximum drawdown of 32%. A certain wariness here causes the fact that in June-July the drawdown chart showed a significant increase, which is, to my mind, connected with desire of the author of the signal to improve his indicators, which were doubled in comparison with April-May ones. And, as we know, the higher the profit, the higher the risks.”


"It'd be quite convenient,” John Gordon adds, "if developers of the 'Signals' service introduced one more chart into a monitoring complex – changes of the number of subscribers. In my opinion, it would really help insufficiently qualified investors understand whether it is worth being signed to a given signal or not.

For example, let us consider the above-mentioned MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842: January – 246 subscribers, February – 250, March – 225, April – 336, May – 447, June – 430, July – 784. In six months the number of subscribers tripled, suggesting that you should not expect unpleasant surprises from this signal.

Or another signal, which riskiness we discussed in the previous reviews a lot, – Green Line Signals: February – 140 subscribers and a growth of 510%, March – 296, April – 478, May – 125. We should admit that it is a quite disturbing signal! And, finally, June – the nullified deposit and zero subscribers."

"I repeatedly warned", the leading analyst of NordFX sums up the overview, "that you should be cautious while subscribing to signals which are only several months old. Therefore, selecting this or that signal, I urge to use MetaQuotes service which allows filtering them out not only by the profit size, but also by those parameters, which we paid much attention to today, – on the maximum drawdown and the number of subscribers."

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 15 – 19 August 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:


– the forecast for EUR/USD reckoned that early in the week the pair could tick up to the level of 1.1130, and if it was broken through – it would go up to 1.1170. The high of 1.1220 was indicated as the third resistance. The pair fully fulfilled the plan: on Tuesday it reached the level of 1.1130, on Wednesday it broke through it, got to the mark of 1.1170, having turned it into the pivot point, and on Friday it took the high of 1.1220 on news from the USA. After this uprise the pair rushed back, failing to drive out of the range of the three-month descending channel;


– as a reminder, speaking of GBP/USD, 100% of experts expressed the view, that during August the pair would retest the bottom within 1.2700–1.2800 again for sure. The pair seemed to hear that forecast, and during the whole week it was aggressively striving to go down, however, so far it could drop only to the mark of 1.2900;


– as to the last week’s acting of USD/JPY, it was impossible to form any consensus: experts pointed down – to the area of 98.90–100.00, the technical analysis reckoned that before going down the pair would first try to reach the upper boundary of this long-term descending channel within 103.50–104.00. Eventually, moving alongside the sideways channel, the pair failed to reach either mark, keeping within 100.96–102.65;


– USD/CHF – here the half of experts believed that the pair would try to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. The rest 50% of analysts reckoned that the pair would fail to do so, and that it would move within 0.9735–0.9900. Looking at the weekly chart, it may be concluded that both turned out to be right: during the first two days the pair tried hard to consolidate above the level of 0.9800, and afterwards the bulls gave up, and the pair plunged, wrapping up the week in the area of 0.9750.


***

Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:


– giving forecast for EUR/USD, most experts, backed by the graphical analysis on H4, indicate the area of 1.1100 as the nearest support. The area of 1.1230 is expected to act the resistance, and if it is broken through, the pair can make attempts to heave upwards by further 100 points – up to the level of 1.1330. 80% of indicators on Н4 and D1 agree with this scenario. As for the longer-term outlook, near 100% of experts are sure that the three-month descending trend will continue, and the pair will try to reach the level of 1.0800 or even 1.0600;


– it’s clear, that speaking of the future of GBP/USD, 100% of indicators point to the south. As to the experts and the graphical analysis, they believe that in the short term the pair will fail to rise above the support of 1.2810–1.2850, and when bouncing off it, the pair will go up to the area of 1.3200–1.3250. It should be specified that around 70% of experts are sure that in the medium term the pair will go south again under the bears’ pressure, where it will try to test the support of 1.2700, and if it is broken through, it will go further down – to the mark of 1.2500;


– as to the future of USD/JPY, the majority of experts and the graphical analysis on H4 and D1 agree that for a while the pair will continue moving in a sideways channel within 100.70–102.50, after which it will upswing to the area of 103.00-104.00. And only 20% of analysts believe that there is still a chance that the pair will go down to the mark of 100.00;


– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the forecasts have been indicating to the magic level of 0.9800 for several months in a row. And this week the experts believe that first the pair will strive for reaching this high, and then it will consolidate above it – at the area of 0.9800–0.9900. Agreeing with this scenario, the graphical analysis specifies that first the pair will make several attempts to rise above the resistance of 0.9765 and only then, rebounding from the support of 0.9700–0.9730, will surge northwards.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 22 – 26 August 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:


– the forecast for EUR/USD reckoned that having rebounded from the support of 1.1100, the pair would go up – to the resistance of 1.1230, and if it was broken through, the pair could heave upwards by further 100 points – up to the level of 1.1330. Considering the backlash, common to the levels of support/resistance on D1, the forecast can be considered as panned out: having bounced off the level of 1.1153, as early as Tuesday the pair broke through the first resistance and consolidated above it. By Thursday it had approached the second resistance, by inertia it slipped past further 35 points, and then it returned to the area, specified by experts, wrapping up the week at the level of 1.1325;


– the forecast for GBP/USD can also be deemed as fulfilled, moreover – 100% fulfilled. As a reminder, the experts and the graphical analysis believed that in the short term the pair would fail to rise above the support of 1.2810–1.2850, and when bouncing off it, the pair would go up to the area of 1.3200–1.3250, which virtually happened: the last week’s low - 1.2865, high 1.3185;


– for a couple of weeks there were debates about whether USD/JPY could reach the area of 98.90–100.00 or not. First, most analysts agreed with this scenario, and then their number diminished progressively. And when there were only 20% of experts left, the pair hardly passed the support of 100.86, and went one level down, and, finally, reached the landmark level of 100.00, turning it later into the pivot point;


– USD/CHF – the graphical analysis turned out to be the closest to the truth, reckoning that before reaching the level of 0.9800 the pair would make several attempts to rise above the resistance of 0.9765, after which it would rebound to the support of 0.9700–0.9730. But even this forecast can be deemed as partially fulfilled. Indeed, on Monday within hours the pair tried to break through the area of 0.9765. Actually it failed and went down. But therewith the bears appeared to be so strong, that they could easily jump over the timid resistance of the opponent, and, instead of expected 50 points, the fall made around 200 points.


***

Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:


– giving forecast for EUR/USD, around 60% of experts, supported by the graphical analysis on Н4, believe that, backing on the support of 1.1300, the pair will try to reach the resistance of 1.1425, after which it will bounce downwards to the area of 1.1200–1.1230. Two options are indicated as alternative viewpoints: the first one is a sideways movement with the pivot point of 1.1300, and the second one – a descending trend from earlier in the week with the same target of 1.1200;


– according to both most experts and the graphical analysis as well as indicators on Н4 and D1, the main forecast for GBP/USD for the near future is continuation of a sideways trend, formed after Brexit. Currently the pair is keeping within the central line of this horizontal channel – at 1.3080, and according to the readings of the graphical analysis, its movement northwards, which started last week, will continue. With smooth consolidation, the nearest target for this pair is the resistance of 1.3280, and if it is broken through - 1.3350. The third resistance will be at 1.3500. Alternative viewpoint implies rebounding of the pair from the central line to the lower boundary of the specified channel - 1.2850;


– predicting the future of USD/JPY, the readings of many indicators differ: 65% on Н1 vote for Buy, 70% on Н4 - for Sell and 30% for Buy, and 100% on D1 vote for Sell. There is also no consensus among the experts – 50% vote for the pair’s rise, 30% - for its fall, and 20% - for its sideways movement alongside the line of 100.00. The level of 099.00 is indicated as the main support here. The only one, who offers more or less agreed forecast, is the graphical analysis on Н4 иD1 – both imply the pair’s rise to the resistance of 102.00. And only after these goals are met, it will be able to go 300 point lower – to the mark of 099.00;


– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, 80% of analysts, backed by the graphical analysis on Н4, reckon that last week the pair reached its local bottom at 0.9535, after which for a while it will be moving in a sideways channel of 0.9535–0.9640 with the pivot point of 0.9590. Then the pair is expected to move in an uptrend, the first resistance will be at 0.9710, the next - at 0.9800. The target for autumn remains the same - 1.0000.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

 

[Julia NordFX]

Olympic DemoCup from NordFX – Games, Which Traders Make Money on


In parallel with the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro, Forex broker NordFX held its own "Olympic Games".


And so, the Olympic flame went out. For some this sport event became the way to the medal stand, for others – bitterness of defeat.

The rush of winning is in human nature, and this refers not only to wrestlers or track and field athletes, but also... to traders. Each of us wants to prove to the whole world, that he is faster, stronger, and more successful than the others. Sportsmen demonstrate it during the Olympic Games and the championships, as for the traders, DemoCup contest, which has been held for six years now by Forex broker NordFX, gives them such opportunity.


Only virtual demo accounts participate in this two-week contest, which takes place in the middle of each month. However, the prizes awarded to the winners are quite real – monthly prize drawing makes $3500, $3000 from which are divided among 10 winners, and 10 contestants obtain consolation prizes of $50.


In total, since March, 2010, about 300.000 dollars were awarded! Even though anyone can take part in this contest absolutely for free.



The thing, which juices up this contest, is that traders from almost 100 countries take part in it, namely, from: China and Russia, Ukraine and India, Kyrgyzstan and Sri Lanka, Romania, Iran, Thailand, Poland, Kazakhstan, Egypt, Belarus, Indonesia, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Estonia, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Australia, Bulgaria, France, Pakistan, Mexico, Lithuania, the Czech Republic, Moldova and the USA, Morocco and Syria, Israel and Nigeria, Bangladesh, Great Britain, Peru, the United Arab Emirates, Germany, Tajikistan, Costa Rica, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Paraguay, Brazil, Libya, Armenia, Angola, Chile, Spain, Colombia, Ghana, Slovakia, Uruguay, Cote d'Ivoire, Algeria, Yemen, Argentina, Latvia, Bolivia, Ecuador, Azerbaijan, Nepal, Philippines, Cuba, Kenya, the Republic of South Africa, Taiwan, Peru, Morocco, Venezuela, Tunisia, Guatemala, Italy, Georgia, El Salvador, the Dominican Republic, Portugal, Bahrain, Mongolia, Kuwait, Swaziland and even from Saint Helena...


"The geography of the contestants is so broad, that DemoCup can be easily called a world-wide contest", the leading analyst of NordFX and the jury member John Gordon says. "And so we thought why not to hold our own Olympics for the traders in parallel with the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro. So said - so done: we established the organizing committee, developed special rules and allocated a very plum prize fund of $23100 for the winners.


Unlike standard, regular DemoCup, in the Olympic DemoCup we drew three sets – total 89 – of awards in team and individual scorings. The contests were held from August 8 to August 19, and during all these ten days the heat of the struggle did not subside for even a minute, the traders looked for the slightest opportunity to increase individual and team deposits.

And if in the medal ranking at the Olympic Games in Rio the Russian team took only the 4th place, here it could step on the top of victory podium. In a very short time twenty best traders from the Russian team could increase their deposit by 22.5 times – from two hundred thousand to almost four and a half million virtual dollars! Such that they received yet 10000 real dollars – $500 for each member of the "gold" twenty.



The national team of Ukraine got "silver" and $5000, and the representatives of China, having overtaken Russian sportsmen in Rio, took only the third place in the Olympic DemoCup, having received $2500 as a prize. As for the host country of the Olympic Games – Brazil, it took the fourth place. One more South American country – Venezuela - was in Top 5.

As for individual scores, Russian trader, who increased the deposit from 10.000 to 1.670.000 dollars, that is by 167 times, became the absolute winner here! Having won in all three nominations, he obtained $2000 as an award.

The organizers didn't forget about consolation prizes of $50 each, which got representatives of Pakistan, Vietnam, Egypt, Cuba, Kyrgyzstan, Nigeria, Belarus, Indonesia, Mexico and India.


"I'd like to emphasize", J. Gordon says, "that contests on demo accounts require traders to have not less, and sometimes even more self-control. If, trading on the real account, the trader is constantly struggling with a fear to lose his deposit, he has to overcome euphoria from the first successes and the seeming impunity – because the money is not real. Of course, a loss won’t ruin him, but he won't become a winner either. In DemoCup it is very easy to cross that fine line between a justified risk and mindless adventurism."



"In conclusion", the jury member sums up, "I'd like to congratulate our winners and invite all traders to take part in the next stages DemoCup, which, as a reminder, unlike the Olympic Games, are held every month. The annual prize fund makes $42000, and you can study the rules of the contest on NordFX website, they are simple. I'm sure, that you will appreciate advantageous terms and high quality of the services, which NordFX offers to each client. And the number of our clients, – John Gordon smiles, – already makes about 1.500.000 – a big close-knit family Olympic family!”

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 29 August – 02 September 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast, which for all four pairs may be considered if not 100%, but at least 90% fulfilled:


– all three variants of the forecast for EUR/USD, suggested by the experts last week, considered the level of 1.1200 as the ultimate target, which was actually reached on Friday evening, “supported” by the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, having brought hope to investors for the rate hike by the Fed before the end of 2016;


– the forecast for GBP/USD can also be deemed as 100% fulfilled. As a reminder, both the experts and the technical analysis predicted the continuation of a sideways trend, formed after Brexit. Considering smooth consolidation, the resistance of 1.3280 was indicated as the nearest target, which the pair reached last Wednesday, following which it rebounded to the center of the channel, wrapping up the week at the level of 1.3130;


– predicting the future of USD/JPY, there was no consensus between the experts and the indicators. The only one, who offered more or less agreed forecast, was the graphical analysis on Н4 and D1, insisting on the pair’s rise to the resistance of 102.00, which virtually happened on Friday, when the pair reached the high of 101.94;


– as a reminder, the forecast for USD/CHF reckoned that for a while it would be moving in a sideways channel of 0.9535–0.9640 with the pivot point of 0.9590, then the pair was expected to move in an uptrend with the first target of 0.9710, and the next - 0.9800. Except that the pivot level became the lower boundary of the channel, that forecast turned out to be absolutely correct. During the first half of the week the pair had been moving strictly to the east, after which it went to the north, and by the end of the week it virtually reached the ultimate target, having risen up to the level of 0.9792.

***

Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:


– EUR/USD. After the speech of J. Yellen a “certain uncertainty” crossed the minds of both analysts and indicators’ readings. In other words, one half of experts reckons that the pair will return to the resistance of 1.1365, the other half believes that, for sure, it will try to retest the bottom in the area of 1.1200 again. As for the indicators, the ones on Н4 point to the south, and the ones on D1 predict a sideways trend. It appears that in such a situation the economic data from Europe, which are due to be released on Wednesday, and, especially, NFP data - the key indicator of economic health of the USA, which will be released on Friday, September 2, will have the major impact on the pair’s movement. The forecast for NFP reminds of the month old unfulfilled forecast, and it predicts that this figure will fall from 255Кto 164К–188К;


– trying to give a forecast for GBP/USD we can see a variety of opinions similar to EUR/USD. However, the whole diversity of views and readings can be reduced to a certain common denominator, according to which the summer sideways trend should be expected. The level of 1.3000 is indicated as the main support, and the level of 1.3320 – as the main resistance. The next resistance will be at 1.3385. With this, the graphical analysis on both Н4 and D1 warns that fist the pair can go down to the support area, and only then, having rebounded from it, it will surge upwards. The ultimate target here will be the third resistance at 1.3560. As to the forecast for autumn in general, 80% of experts have sided with the bears and they predict a possible decline of the pair to the area of 1.2500–1.2800;


– giving forecast for USD/JPY, we can speak of a consolidation of this pair around the pivot level of 100.80. The resistance will be in the area of 102.20, the support - 099.90. With this, the graphical analysis on D1 points out that the pair will seek the area of 0.9840–0.9880, but it can spend from one week to two weeks to break through the support of 099.90. As for the forecast for the upcoming months, only around 70% of experts, backed by the graphical analysis, reckon that the pair will go up to the area of 105.00–107.00;


– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, 100% of analysts, supported by the graphical analysis on H4, expect the pair to move alongside the pivot point of 0.9680 with predominance of bearish trends. The resistance will be at 0.9800, the support – at 0.9640.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for USD, GBP, JPY and CHF for 05 – 09 September 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:


– as for the forecast for EUR/USD, those 50% of experts, which reckoned that, for sure, the pair would try to retest the bottom in the area of 1.1200, turned out to be right. The indicators on H4, which pointed to the south (where the pair did move early week), as well as the ones on D1, which predicted a sideways trend (on Thursday the pair returned to the figures of Monday), turned out to be right. Diverse data on the USA economy at the end of the week put in pie, and thus the pair started to jig up and down, and eventually it wrapped up the week at the level of 1.1150 – at that very area, where as far back as last June the long-term sideways trend, keeping EUR/USD within the range of 1.0500 – 1.1500, had started;


– with a small tolerance, the forecast for GBP/USD may be deemed as 100% fulfilled. As anticipated, first the pair went down – to the support of 1.3000, but when 50 points were left to reach it, the pair reversed and by the end of Friday it hit the resistance of 1.3320, specified by the experts, approaching the upper boundary of the sideways trend, alongside which it had been moving during the last two months;


– giving the forecast for USD/JPY for the week, the analysts indicated the level of 102.20 as the main resistance. As for the pair’s rise to the area of 105.00–107.00, the pair was supposed to spend at least one to two months to do so. However, it seemingly intends to do so much faster. At least, in the past week alone it surged up by 250 points and, having broken through the resistance of 102.20, it reached the high of 104.30;


– the assumption that USD/CHF tended to continue the sideways movement turned out to be correct – it finished the week at the same area, it had started from. As a reminder, during the past few months the analysts reckoned that it would strive to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. The pair made that very attempt once again also last week. However “the shoot to the north” failed to be convincing, and having got over just 85 points, the pair went back to the landmark level of 0.9800.


***

Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:


– EUR/USD. The opinions of the analysts still differ – 40% of them believe that the pair will go up – to the resistance of 1.1300. The remaining 60%, backed by the indicators and the graphical analysis on Н4, predict the pair’s fall first to the support of 1.1125 and then down to 1.1070. Afterwards, in their view, for a while the pair will be moving in a horizontal channel of 1.1000 – 1.1160 with the pivot level of 1.1070;


– clearly, assessing the prospects for GBP/USD, most indicators (75%) point to the north. As for the analysts, we may outline two scenarios. According to the first view (held by 80% of experts and the graphical analysis on D1), the pair will try to break through the resistance of 1.3370, and, once this happens, try to reach the highs of July 15 and June 29 - 1.3480 and 1.3530, respectively. As for the remaining 20% of analysts and the graphical analysis on H4, they believe that first the pair should plunge to the pivot level of summer sideways channel in the area of 1.3065. We’ll see which of these scenarios will play out early in the week. With this, note that data on the EU economy, and in particular, the ECB interest and deposit rates decision, may influence the change of the trend. However the mega-regulator is expected to keep them on hold;



– giving the forecast for USD/JPY, both the experts and the graphical analysis believe that the pair will be able to get over the resistance within 104.00 – 104.50, and it will have to move down to the support of 102.30. With this, the graphical analysis on D1 reckons that during the month the pair can go further down – to the level of 100.90;


– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the forecast here has been without any major changes for weeks – a gradual consolidation at the pivot level of 0.9800, which can be clearly seen on D1 and W1 charts. The nearest support will be at the levels of 0.9760 and 0.9735. The resistance will be at 0.9840, 0.9885, 0.9955. With this, if indicators on H4 take a neutral position, then the ones on D1 point up, reflecting the prevalence of bullish trends. The upcoming most significant events worth noting are release of GDP data from Switzerland on Tuesday and data on unemployment rate – on Friday.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for USD, GBP, JPY and CHF for 12 – 16 September 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:


– as for the forecast for EUR/USD, those 40% of experts, who believed that the pair would go up to the resistance of 1.1300, which virtually happened, were right. As expected, the ECB interest and deposit rates decision and corresponding commentary from the governor of the mega-regulator turned out to be the key event for it. Eventually, having reached the level of 1.1325 on Thursday, the pair showed impressive volatility, then it reversed and went down, wrapping up the week around the strong level of support/resistance of 1.1230;


– as a reminder, assessing the prospects for GBP/USD last week, 80% of experts, the graphical analysis on D1 and 75% of indicators pointed to the north, indicating 1.3370 and 1.3480 as the levels of resistance. As expected, as early as Monday the pair reached the first target, rebounded, but in a day it overcame this obstacle and surged further upwards. It failed to reach the high of July 15 - 1.3480 – however even the high of 1.3445 may be considered as the upper boundary of the summer sideways channel. Having reached it, the pair reversed and returned to the levels of the early week;


– the forecast for USD/JPY reckoned that the pair would fail to get over the resistance in the area of 104.00 – 104.50, and it would have to move down to the support of 102.30. With this, the graphical analysis specified that during the month the pair could go further down – to the level of 100.90. However, data on the USA economy allowed making a breakthrough to the south much earlier – as early as Tuesday, on September 6, the pair literally collapsed, having reached the bottom at the level of 101.20. However later the bulls could pare over half of losses, and by Friday the pair returned to the area of 102.50 – 103.00;


– if usually USD/CHF shows strong negative correlation with EUR/USD, last week, on top of that, it almost precisely replicated the chart of USD/JPY, simultaneously confirming the forecast for a gradual consolidation at the pivot level of 0.9800. During the whole year the pair has been haunting this level, which happened also this time – it ended the week in the area of 0.9750 – 0.9785.


***

Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:


– predicting the future of EUR/USD, the vast majority of experts believe that the ascending channel, which had begun in July, will continue. According to this forecast, for a while the pair can move backing on the support of 1.1200, following which it will go up. The nearest target will be at 1.1420, if it will be broken through - 1.1500. Only one analyst expressed an alternative point of view – in his opinion, in the near future the pair will break through the boundary of the ascending channel and it will go down to the support of 1.1120;


– assessing the prospects for GBP/USD, most indicators tend towards a sideways movement. The experts, backed by the graphical analysis, determine the boundaries of this channel ranging from 1.3200 to 1.3500. With this, lots of news from Great Britain, released on Tuesday, Wednesday and, especially, on Thursday, can influence the acting of the pair. As for the longer term forecast, 75% of analysts along with the graphical analysis on D1 believe that, for sure, the pair will test the lows of June-July in the area of 1.2750 – 1.2850;



– giving a forecast for USD/JPY, both experts (65%) and the graphical analysis on Н4 and D1 expect the pair to fall down to the support of 101.20, and then even further down to 99.50. 10% predict a sideways trend, and the remaining 25% insist on the pair’s rise to the area of 103.20 – 104.00;


– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the forecast here remains unchanged - a gradual consolidation at the pivot level of 0.9750 – 0.9800. The support will be at the levels of 0.9685 and 0.9580. The resistance will be at 0.9840 and 0.9890.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 19 – 23 September 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:


– giving the forecast for EUR/USD, the vast majority of experts believed that for a while the pair would be moving sideways backing on the support of 1.1200, which was happening during the whole week, up until the middle of Friday. But then, instead of going up, the pair made a breakthrough to the south. Only one analyst predicted such a possible decline, in his opinion, the pair would break through the boundary of the ascending channel and go down to the support of 1.1120, which, however, it failed to reach, having stalled at the level of 1.1150;


– as expected, last week’s acting of GBP/USD was determined by lots of news from Great Britain. With this, 75% of analysts together with the graphical analysis on D1 predicted the pair’s strong bearish trend striving to keep within the boundaries of summer sideways channel. Which virtually happened, as a result of such a sharp drop, the pair even broke through the central line of this channel and reached the level of 1.3000;


– predicting the future of USD/JPY, experts split into three camps. Eventually the pair managed to support the opinions of the first, second and third camp. 65% of analysts together with the graphical analysis expected the pair to go down to the support of 101.20, on Tuesday it fell to the level of 101.40. 25% of experts reckoned that the pair would rise to the area of 103.20-104.00, on Thursday it obediently rose to the level of 103.35. And, finally, the remaining 10% of experts expected the pair to move in a sideways trend, eventually, the pair wrapped up the week almost at the same level it had started from – in the area of 102.25-102.60;


– USD/CHF pair sprang no surprises. As the experts expected, it failed to move away from the pivot point of 0.9800, having ended the week just at that very level.


***

Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:


– reasoning about the future of EUR/USD, 35% of experts and 15% of indicators on D1 reckon that the breakout can be false, and the ascending channel, which had started in July, will continue. However the majority of analysts do not agree with such a scenario, they expect the pair to fall further, first – to the level of 1.1100, and then –100 points further down. As for the medium-term forecast, the number of supporters of the pair’s decline makes up to 70%, and the area of 1.0500 – 1.0800 is indicated as the target;


– assessing the prospects for GBP/USD, most indicators (95%) and the technical analysis on D1 insist that the pair will continue falling to the lower boundary of the three-month sideways trend – to 1.2850. As for the experts, their opinions split almost equally into three camps – 35% vote for the fall, 30% - for the rise and 35% - for the sideways trend. The only thing they have in common is that the pair will still be keeping within the range of 1.2850 – 1.3450;


– there is also no consensus among the experts in respect of the forecast for USD/JPY. It is safe to say that Wednesday will be the core driver for the week trend, when the Interest Rate Decisions of the Bank of Japan and the US Fed and corresponding statements on the monetary policy of these countries will be released. As for the graphical analysis, the one on H4 predicts that for a while the pair will be keeping within 101.70 – 103.25. Following which, according to the readings of indicators on D1, the pair will plunge to the support of 100.50, having rebounded from which it will then surge upwards – to the resistance of 104.30, and if it is broken through, then even further – up to the high of 111.45;


– the forecast for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF – is still the same – movement alongside the pivot level of 0.9750 – 0.9800. The support will be at the levels of 0.9685 and 0.9640, the resistance will be at 0.9885. With this, giving a medium-term forecast, around 60% of experts predict bullish trends and striving of the pair to reach the high of 1.0100.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 26 – 30 September 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:


– the most intriguing for EUR/USD last week was whether the ascending channel, which had started in July, would continue. However, the acting of the pair didn’t give a clear answer to that question. Indeed, after the breakout, as expected, the pair went down to the support in the area of 1.1100–1.1120. But then, having rebounded from it the pair returned to the lower boundary of the uptrend and, having turned it into the resistance, continued its moving upwards;


– as a reminder, assessing possible acting of GBP/USD, experts split into three almost equal groups: 35% voted for the pair’s fall, 30% - for its rise, and 35% for the sideways trend. Eventually, the last camp turned out to be right – using the central line of summer sideways channel of 1.3060 as the resistance, the pair had been moving eastward during the whole week. With this, the bears didn’t cease to test the level of 1.2950, but the bulls could fight off all those attacks, and eventually the pair wrapped up the week at the level of 1.2960;


– as for USD/JPY, the Interest Rate Decisions of the central bank of Japan and the US Fed (which, as expected, were kept on hold) were no so much determining as the commentary on the monetary policy of those countries. Eventually, having kept within the sideways range during the first two days, on Wednesday the pair surged up – to the resistance of 102.80, and then, as the graphical analysis expected, it plunged. Having broken through the support of 100.50, by inertia the pair went further 40 points down – to the level of 100.10, and afterwards, when it calmed down a little, it returned to the specified area – to the area of 100.50–101.25;


– Wednesday was also determining for USD/CHF. And if until now the pair had been moving without moving apart from the pivot point of 0.9800, then, mirroring the acting of EUR/USD, it plunged. The technical analysis indicated two levels of support – 0.9685 and 0.9640, however, the pair preferred the average value and chose the level of 0.9660 as the week low, and afterwards, having bounced off it, it returned to the area of 0.9685–0.9740.


***

Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:


– EUR/USD. 95% of indicators on H4 and 80% on D1 point to the north. As for the analysts, 60% of them vote for the pair’s rise, and 40% - for its fall. This time the number of supporters of the sideways movement of the pair was zero. If the camp, voting for rise, wins, then the pair will return to the range of the ascending medium-term channel and consolidate above its lower boundary, alongside which it has been currently moving. In this scenario the minimum goal is to get to the area of 1.1260–1.1280, the target for the next weeks - 1.1410. As for the supporters of its fall, they indicate the level of 1.1120 as the target, the next support will be at 1.1045. It should be noted here, that unlike the week forecast, in medium term around 75% of experts give priority to the bears;


– the forecast for GBP/USD remains virtually unchanged. The most analysts, fully backed by the graphical analysis on H4 and D1, insist that the pair will continue to go down to the lower boundary of the three-month sideways trend – to 1.2850, and afterwards a reverse of the trend and return of the pair to the resistance of 1.3060 should follow.


– as for USD/JPY, the majority of analysts – 70%, backed by the indicators and the graphical analysis on D1, insist that the pair will continue its downtrend. With this, it should be noted, that currently the pair is at the level of very strong support – 101.00, and significant efforts might be required to get over it. If successful, the target of the pair will be the area of 99.00-100.00. According to the graphical analysis, during the month the pair might go further down – to the support of 96.50, afterwards it will return to the level of 101.00;


– talking about the near future of USD/CHF, 60% of experts and indicators on H4 and D1 believe that the pair should once again test the low of 0.9660, and possibly reach the bottom in the area of 0.9600. However, then the pair will nevertheless return to the pivot point of 0.9800, and more than 70% of analysts are sure about that.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 03 – 07 October 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:


– as a reminder, forecasting the future of EUR/USD, 60% of analysts voted for the pair’s rise up to the resistance of 1.1260–1.1280, and on Monday the pair actually reached the level of 1.1279. 40% of experts supported its fall, and on Friday the pair tested the bottom in the area of 1.1150. This time the number of supporters of the sideways trend was equal to 0. But if at least one expert had pointed to the east, his very forecast would have turned out to be the most accurate, as the pair ended the week almost where it had started from – at the level of 1.1240;


– currently GBP/USD is keeping within the lower area of the three-month sideways channel, and most analysts expected the pair to continue its declining to August lows in the area of 1.2850. However, the pair preferred to follow the suit of EUR/USD, and, using the central line of 1.3060 channel as the resistance, it transited to the sideways trend. Eventually the week session was ended, one might say, with a zero result – in five days the pair rose less than by 10 points;


– the same pattern may be observed as for USD/JPY. Here the majority of experts – 70%, backed by the indicators and the graphical analysis, insisted on continuation of the descending trend. With this, it was noted that significant efforts might be required to get over the strong support of 101.00. The area of 99.00-100.00 was indicated as the nearest target. Eventually the pair could approach the level of 100.00 for a short time, following which it strongly surged upward and finished the week at the level of 101.33;


– giving the forecast for USD/CHF, the experts together with the indicators reckoned that it should retest the low at the level of 0.9660, following which it should return to the pivot point of 0.9800. That forecast panned out 100%. In a week the pair made whooping four attempts to break through the specified support, and two of them made headway. And thus, on Thursday the pair freshened its September low, having fallen to the level of 0.9640, and then, as expected, it went back upward, having moved up to the level of 0.9755 on Friday. As for the end of the working week, the pair wrapped up the week the same as the other three pairs of our review, the final area virtually coincided with the starting area, and the pair came into a weekend at the level of 0.9712.


***

Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:


– EUR/USD. The great majority of indicators on H4 and D1 (90%) point to the north. With this, the vast majority of experts (80%) point to the south. Such dissent is possibly connected with the fact that the indicators cannot be aware of Friday (October 7) release of data on employment change from the USA. Forecasts for these data, including NFP, are positive for US dollar. And if NFP, as expected, increases from 151К to 170К–176К, EUR/USD pair can go down to the support of 1.1150. The next support will be at 1.1120. As for a longer term forecast, here 70% of analysts expect the pair to go down below the level of 1.1000;


– certainly, expectations for employment growth in the USA and negative forecasts in respect of industrial output in Great Britain (these data are also released on Friday) cannot but affect GBP/USD quotations. So, 65% of experts, backed by the absolute majority of indicators and the graphical analysis on H4, expect the pair to decline to August lows in the area of 1.2850. As for the graphical analysis on D1, it indicates the possibility of its greater decline – down to the low of July 06 at the level of 1.2795, following which the pair will return to the medium-term pivot point of 1.3060;


– as for USD/JPY, plenty of evidence suggests that the pair will transit to the sideways trend. So, the opinions of both experts and indicators on H4 and D1 split almost equally – about half of them vote for the pair’s rise, and the same number – for its fall. As for the graphical analysis, the one on H4 also tends to the sideways trend within 100.80–101.80. The graphical analysis on D1 extends the range of the pair’s fluctuations to 99.00–104.00, with this, it expressly points to predominance of bullish sentiment for this upcoming week;


– as before, nobody expects any surprises from USD/CHF. The pair continues a medium-term consolidation in the area of 0.9700–0.9800, diminishing volatility during the whole year of 2016. The main resistance will be at 0.9810, support – in the area of 0.9640–0.9660. With this, over 75% of experts believe that in the medium term the bulls will convincingly win, and the pair will make an upward breakout, observing the beginning of new year of 2017, at the high of 1.0100.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.