Analysis from a European broker Forex.ee

[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №9 from 09/08/2014

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

Euro

The end of the week, despite the ECB President Mario Draghi's speech was poor on the news. Firstly Draghi said nothing about the upcoming LTRO. He just acknowledged that the economic outlook would worsen and Russian response to the EU sanctions would play not the last role for this.

Russia banned the products import from the EU, USA, Canada, Norway and Australia. Russian sanctions imposed on beef, pork, poultry, fish, cheese, milk, fruits and vegetables.

Trading recommendations

The pair completed the correction development. We expect the growth scenario to the level 1.3520. Further we expect a decline back to the level of 1.3385. Then we consider the possibility of a reversal pattern with a potential growth to the level 1.3550.


Pound

The trade balance forecast for June is - 8.9 billion pounds versus -9.2 billion. The UK production volume in the construction sector (Construction Output) is expected to increase by 1.1% compared to -1.1% in May.

The construction Output can still leave some predictive value as mortgage lending and business activity in the construction of the previously demonstrated growth. But there were no significant data to improve the trade balance.

Trading recommendations

The pair has broken down the consolidation. We expect the decline to be continued to the level 1.6767. Next, we expect the reversal development pattern and the continuation of the uptrend.


Yen

The dollar/yen fell again, approaching to the support in the area of 101.59. They buy the Japanese currency after the United States decision to strike militants in Iraq which provoked another demand for "risk-free" assets.

Trading recommendations

The pair continues to develop a decrease structure. The main target is the level of 99.30. Today we expect the level 101.30 to be reached. Next, we do not exclude its attempt to return to the level of 102.00.


Gold

The gold futures fell during the Friday session. In the division of the New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex, gold futures with delivery in December was traded at 1.309,20 per troy ounce, rising to 0.36%.

Trading recommendations

The gold continues the growth structure. The main scenario is a consolidation at the current highs. Further we expect a decline to the level of 1280.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №10 from 16/08/2014


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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

Euro

The euro remained under pressure after preliminary data showed that the euro area GDP has not showed any growth for three months. Economists expect that the economy will grow by 0.1%.

Germany's economy has been reduced by 0.2% for three months, for the first time since 2012. Economists forecasted a decline of 0.1%. The French GDP remained unchanged in the second quarter, the second consecutive time.

Trading recommendations

EUR/USD is still trading above the support area of 1.3333. To develop the euro upward correction the pair needs to break through and consolidate above the 34th figure. To continue the downward trend "bears" need to overcome the current support. Their failure will increase the chances of upward correction developing.


Pound

On Friday, the pound was stable against the dollar, being traded near four-month low after preliminary data showed that in the last quarter of the UK economy grew in line with expectations. The pair events to a greater extent depend on the message from the United States.

Sterling showed little reaction after the official data showed that the UK's gross domestic product increased by 0.8% in the second quarter, in line with market forecasts. In annual terms, the UK's GDP grew by 3.2%, while there was expected a growth by 3.1%.

Trading recommendations

The pair continued falling towards 1.6341. There is a chance that the pair will turn upwards to 1.7274. Shall the pair consolidate below the 1.6341 that fact shall increase the chances of a drop in the direction of the level 1.5990.


Yen

States released a large block of data where there was no report of big importance, still we cannot ignore them. The market has chosen a new favorite instead of the British pound and now it will expect a faster recovery and a quicker rate growth. Thus, any reports that confirm such theses will be cheered by the investors. Particular attention should be paid to the industrial production and consumer sentiment indicators.

Trading recommendations

A short-term upward movement is possible in a corridor 102.68 - 102.77, the breakdown of the last level will favor the development of the upward movement, the goal is 102.97, the price is consolidating near this level. A short-term downward movement is possible if the price breaks 102.34 down, the potential target is 102.14.


Gold

The gold futures are stable traded near one-month high, as disappointing the United States unemployment data and concerns about the Eurozone economic growth continue to support the precious metal.

Trading recommendations

The gold futures are likely to find the support at 1306.00 per ounce, the low from August 13 and resistance at 1324.30, the high of August 8th.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №11 from 23/08/2014

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The single currency was supported by the France and Germany business activity. However, the demand for the euro was restrained, because the German indicator was below the July values, despite a small growth in the manufacturing and the non-manufacturing sectors.

On Friday, the euro rose against the dollar as investors take profits after the American currency recent surge and turned their attention to the Federal Reserve Chief Janet Yellen speech.

Trading recommendations

The euro/dollar started to develop the recovery rates structure to the level of 1.3400. Next we consider another structure to reduce update current lows possibility. Then we expect the consolidation range development for the reversal pattern formation. We expect the trend upwards development.


Pound

The pair continues the bear’s rally. It is important to note that the GBP/USD current weakening is for several reasons. In particular, the UK has shown the deterioration index change in the retail trade volume, taking into account the fuel cost.

Trading recommendations

The pound/dollar continues to trade in consolidation at the minimums. We do not exclude a range extension to the level of 1.6750. Next we consider another structure possibility to reduce the level of 1.6460. In this we plan this decline structure ending. Then we expect the growth structure to be continued.


Yen

All week, the yen rose, following the American stock market, poorly paying attention to the internal data (which were mostly negative). The investment flow data showed an increase demand in the Japanese investors in the foreign bonds and a foreign investors’ influx in the Japanese stock market last week. If we take into account that the Bank of Japan has so far refrained from the currency interventions, the USD/JPY growth looks shaky.

Trading recommendations

The dollar/yen put a double top in the growth fifth wave. The basic scenario considers the range reduction breakdown. We will examine the next decline wave development to the level of 101.70.


Gold

The gold price fell to a two-month low after the optimistic data on USA gave the optimism to the country economic recovery strength.

The investors continue to monitor the annual economic symposium progress with the major central bankers and the major economists participation held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Trading recommendations

The gold has fulfilled the regular structure reducing potential. At the present, we consider the price recovery back to the level of 1290 possibility. Next we consider another structure development to reduce to the level of 1260.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №12 from 30/08/2014

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The Germany consumer price index stabilized at a very low level in August - July annual inflation was 0.8% y/y, as in the previous month, but the information about the labor market in the EU largest economy showed an unexpected increase in the August unemployed number - instead of the 5.0 thousand reduction there was recorded an increase of 2.0 thousand which naturally could alert the market, raising fears about the deteriorating situation in the leading Eurozone economies.

Trading recommendations

The pair showed a growth structure and a correction. At present, we consider the possibility of second growth structure developing for working out the level of 1.3300. Next we expect the return to the level of 1.3220. After which we expect the next growth structure development.


Pound

The August house price index from Nationwide showed the continued growth by 0.8% m/m and 11.0% y/y, significantly outperforming the forecasts that were waiting for 0.1% m/m, 10.2% y/y and the previous period results which recorded 0.2 % m/m, 10.6% y/y. This evidence that the UK housing market remains active had no impact on the market.

Trading recommendationsации

The pair is still trading in the consolidation range. Shall it grow we will consider the correction to the level of 1.6660. In case of the downward movement the price may reach the level of 1.6460.


Yen

The published data showed that the Japan economy remains weak after the April sales tax increase. In July, the Japan industrial production growth was weaker than expected, -0.9% y / y at the forecast of -0.1% y/y, the household spending fell even more, -5.9% y/y after -3.0% y/y while the consumer price index fell 3.4% vs. 3.6% y/y. Perhaps it is somewhat pressured the yen which fell slightly against the dollar.

Trading recommendations

The pair was traded in the second decline wave. Now, we consider the breakdown possibility and the minimum decrease to the level of 103.30. Then the possibility of the 103.60 level restore.


Gold

The gold futures were little changed in price, so the United States upbeat economic reports continue to support the demand for the American currency, however, concerns about the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine have forced the investors to seek safe-haven assets.

Trading recommendations

The gold has fulfilled the matrix growth. In this regard the correction is over. Next we consider the possibility of another decrease wave and the level of 1260 working out.



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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №13 from 06/09/2014

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The euro was traded near the 14-month low against the dollar after the unexpected European Central Bank interest rates decrease. The European Central Bank cut the interest rates to new lows and the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the central bank would start buying securitized loans (ABS) and asset-backed bonds to revive the euro area lending in October.

The euro/dollar updated its low marks and continued to trade under the pressure. The pair was slightly corrected.

Trading recommendations

At present, we consider the updating the current minimum possibility and the growth impulse beginning. We expect the growth wave with the first target testing the level of 1.3130. Next we expect the correction to the level of 1.3030.


Pound

The pair is under the positive sentiment to the dollar market pressure and is concerned about the Scottish independence referendum prospects. The pair decrease is limited by the British currency demand. We expect the BoE quarterly survey data and the GfK NOP inflation expectations.

The pair has updated the minimum and slightly corrected.

Trading recommendations

We consider the recovery growth momentum possibility to the level of 1.6470. Further on the correction to the level of 1.6380 with a continued growth.


Yen

The dollar/yen is likely to consolidate before the American session, the market expects the next United States labor market data. The good results for the United States employment will increase the dollar popularity and will lead to the further yen decline. The pair updated the maximum.

Trading recommendations

We consider the reversal possibility in the decline structure. We expect the wave reduction to the level of 103.87. Next, we consider the recovery to the level of 104.70 with the level reduce to 103.00.


Gold

The gold futures fell to the three-month low, as the European Central Bank decision on the program launch for the asset-backed securities and the mortgage bonds buying puts pressure on market sentiment.

The gold has once again updated the minimum. The reduction target is blocked.

Trading recommendations

We consider the consolidation with the reversal structure formation for correction to the level of 1300. Next we expect another decrease wave to the level of 1208.



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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №14 from 13/09/2014

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The ECB expects a gradual increase in the consumer price index to the end of the year and intends to monitor the situation closely, in particular inflation risks. If it is necessary The Central Bank is to take additional measures.

The risks include geopolitical tensions, exchange rates dynamics and the recent measures impact on the euro zone economy.

Trading recommendations

The pair EUR/USD continues to trade in the consolidation range. The growth impulse in the third structure development is still in process. We expect the level of 1.2990 overlap. The next is the correction to level of 1.2920. Thus, the market still remains within the consolidation range. Namely after this structure formation we will see the consolidation. The next step is the possible correction with the growth (at least) to the level of 1.3388.


Pound

The British pound raised against the survey results, which showed the Scotland preservation supporters advantage as the UK part. Besides the possible victory for the pro-independence referendum has been largely taken into prices account. Therefore, the market participants are focused on the UK economy state.

Trading recommendations

The British pound and the US dollar continue to develop the growth structure. We expect the level of 1.6300 overlap. The next what we expect is the decline back to the level of 1.6180. After such a structure we will expect the higher compensation development. Its target is to test the level of 1.6630.


Yen

The Japanese currency continued to lose ground against the dollar after the Japan Prime Minister Abe met the Bank of Japan governor Kuroda who said that the central bank would do its utmost to achieve the Government's inflation target.

Trading recommendations

The US dollar and the Japanese yen continue to trade in a growth channel. At present, the market worked the next consolidation expansion. The next step is a drop to the level of 106.90. And then again the level of 107.77 touching. We note that the local market has fulfilled the growth target and at any moment can fall in the correction to the level of 104.40.


Gold

The gold futures were declined.

In the New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex division, the December gold futures were traded at USD 1235.40 per troy ounce at the time of signing contract falling 0.29%.

Trading recommendations

The gold continues to be traded under the pressure to downward direction. The market still has not created anything for the level of 1300 correction. We still consider the continued price down decrease with the goals overlap at the level of 1208.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №15 from 20/09/2014

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

Euro

There were developed lateral trends in the range of 1.2850 -1.2950 against the empty macroeconomic calendar the last trading day of the week. The Fed's representative Richard Fisher gave his speech, but the speech sentiment on monetary policy have long been known to market participants and the strong market reaction was not followed to this event.

Trading recommendations

The pair euro/dollar continues the consolidation. At present, we consider the minimum update possibility. Then we expect the consolidation with the reversal pattern and expect the correction to the level of 1.3390.


Pound

The pound/dollar fell to 1.6310 after the British pound jumped by 0.6% up to 1.6500 to the US dollar. The futures rise on the British stocks, and the government bond yields were decreased because of the news after the Scotland independence opponents’ victory.

Trading recommendations

The pound/dollar continues to trade within the figures of the growth continuation. This pair growth still remained for the level of 1.6550 overcoming. Then we expect the decline to the level of 1.6300. Further, we expect the growth with the level of 1.6550 break.


Yen

The dollar rose by 0.4 % to 109.13 against the yen, reaching a six year maximum on Thursday, after the initial jobless claims decrease in the United States last week report. On the other hand, the Japan weak economic performance may force the Central Bank to take the further stimulating measures.

Trading recommendations

The pair dollar/ yen, being under the fundamental background pressure, fulfilled the strategic growth targets. At present, we consider the consolidation range possibility with the pivot structure development. We expect the possible decrease trend development. The first decline target is at the level of 107.30.


Gold

The gold remains under a strong selling pressure. In the New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex division, the gold futures were traded at USD 1222.60 to troy ounce with the December delivery, falling to 0.35%.

Trading recommendations

The gold continues to be traded in a low consolidation. We consider decrease to the level of 1208 update. Then we will consider the correction growth possibility to the level of 1300 .Then we expect again the downward trend.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №16 from 27/09/2014

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

Euro

The EUR/USD fell down largely due to Mario Draghi’s comments, the European Central Bank President, said that the central bank could use additional unconventional money-and- credit policy measures, if it felt that its inflation target was under threat.

Trading recommendations

The euro/dollar delayed a further structural decline. The market began to form a growth impulse. At present, we consider to work out the level of 1.2680, then to reduce to the level of 1.2600. After this pattern forming, we will consider it for the growth new wave beginning. As a starting point we consider to work out the level of 1.3380 for the increase.


Pound

The GBP/USD is slightly moving downward, but is unable to consolidate against the domestic news.

The Bank of England attempted to help the pound. Mark Carney emphasized that the interest rate rise is getting closer.

Trading recommendations

The pound/dollar fell at the end of the trading week. Before this the pair was trading in the consolidation range above 1.6300. We consider the next consolidation for the growth continuation. The first target is 1.6550. Then we expect the decline to the level of 1.6300.


Yen

The Japanese yen decreased by 29 points against the considerable US stock market fall.

From the political point of view the Bank of Japan has already questioned the weak yen utility. The aging population problem is frequently raised on the policy agenda and the related pension reform. The pension assets decline will make the Central Bank to devalue the yen again. And this is the way it works.

Trading recommendations

The dollar/yen continues to be traded in the growth structure on the maximum update. We consider such a structure as a double top. Further we expect its breakdown. The first target is 107.00.


Gold

The US stock market decline and a slight weakening dollar helped quotations to recover.

Nevertheless, the gold quotations growth is likely to be limited in the near future, as the market participants will concentrate on the US labor market report, the publication of which is expected the next Friday. Only if these data point to the economic slowdown, the gold will be able to continue a significant growth.

Trading recommendations

The gold has fulfilled another growth impulse. The correction to the level of 1214 is waiting its turn. Then we will consider the possibility to develop the second growth impulse. The next step is to test the decline from 1240.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №17 from 04/10/2014

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The euro growth was not a turning point for the single currency; its sale may be resumed after the next weak data set from the euro zone and the US strong labor market report.

The data shows that the producer price index fell by 0.1% in August after falling by 0.2% in July. Analysts forecasted a decline by 0.2%.

Trading recommendations

The pair euro/dollar has fulfilled the second growth impulse. At present, we consider the pair decline to the level of 1.2440. Then we consider another structure growth possibility to the level of 1.2700 where the growth wave may be started. Further we expect the correction with its return to the level of 1.2600.


Pound

The pair consolidation was with a tendency to decrease. After this consolidation the pair reached the 3-week low of 1.5960. Its dynamics can be affected by the US nonfarm payroll data.

The market’s attitude towards the pound was supported by the September purchasing managers index (PMI) for supplying the UK construction sector, it was 64.2 against the expected 63.3 according to the CIPS/Markit.

Trading recommendations

The pound/dollar continues to be under pressure with the target to fall. At present we consider the possible growth to the level of 1.6220. We do not exclude the minimum update.


Yen

The US dollar exchange rate rose above 109.00 against the Japanese yen that encouraged the players for the dollar growth. It is still unclear whether the consolidation is possible or not, therefore it will be reasonable to buy while the quotes decline.

Trading recommendations

The dollar/yen has not formed a sufficiently powerful decline impulse. At present, we expect the level of 110.00 correction development. We will consider this structure as the bear flag. We will consider the reversal pattern for the downward trend continuation. The decrease target is the level of 106.50.


Gold

The gold is still in the nine-month low and finished the week with losses amid the dollar rise over the expectations that the solid US labor market data will open the way to the Fed monetary policy tightening.

Trading recommendations

The gold could not develop a third growth impulse on the spot and continues to trade under pressure with the target to decrease. We consider the possible fall for the minimum of 1200 updating. The next step is a return to the level of 1210, then again the level of 1190 update. Afterwards we consider the new consolidation range for the reversal structure.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №18 from 11/10/2014

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The euro growth turned out to be short-lived against the US dollar. The reason for disappointment is the German and France reports about the euro area international trade results.

The pair euro/dollar continues to trade in the structural decline. We consider it as the correction to the level of 1.2550.

Trading recommendations

At present, we consider the consolidation development. We will take into account the upward movement as the growth continuation for another target at 1.2850. We will consider the downward movement as the correction target.


Pound

The British regulator has left its key interest rates unchanged and kept the bond purchases amount, leaving it in the amount of 375 billion pounds. Apparently, traders have decided to wait for the meeting minute’s publication which will appear on October 22.

Obviously, the BoE neutral solutions about the interest rates have disappointed traders and now it can be a major driver in the British currency trade.

The pair pound/dollar is trading in the structural decline as the correction to the level of 1.5050.

Trading recommendations

At present, we consider the consolidation formation. We will consider the break through upwards as the growth continuation with the maximum update. We will consider the downward movement as the correction target.


Yen

The Japanese economic news signals about continued weakness. The Japanese regulator last meeting minutes report was published. The Bank of Japan intends to continue the quantitative easing in order to achieve a specific inflation target of 2%.

The pair dollar/yen continues to trade in the structural consolidation at the second impulse lows in order to decline.

Trading recommendations

At present, we consider the minimum breakthrough and decrease for the level testing of 107.00. Then, we do not exclude the recovery development structure back to the level of 108.00.


Gold

The gold has finished the week with the highest results since June despite the year losses amid our fears that the global economic slowdown would lead to central banks stimulus measures resulting in the precious metal demand increase as a means of preserving the capital value.

The gold continues to trade in the structural correction.

Trading recommendations

At present, we do not exclude the consolidation with the downward breakthrough at the level of 1208. Afterwards we will consider another structural growth possibility for the maximum breakthrough and the next figure formation to continue the level of 1250 testing.


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