Analysis from a European broker Forex.ee

[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №19 from 18/10/2014

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

On Friday, the euro was almost unchanged against the US dollar, trading near the three-week high, as the world economic problems fell slightly on Thursday after the US positive data publication.

Trading recommendations

The pair euro/dollar was trading in the third growth wave. We consider the growth target to be the level of 1.2900. Further we expect the correction to the level of 1.2760. Then we will consider the fifth structural growth with the target at the level of 1.3000.


Pound

The pound/dollar will likely be traded in a higher range, receiving support both from investors who are more inclined to take risks and from the pound demand against other major currencies. But the pair GBP/USD is likely to be limited due to the improving sentiment towards the US dollar.

Trading recommendations

The pair pound/dollar is trading in the third growth wave. At present, we consider the level of 1.6140 testing. Then, we expect a correction back to the level of 1.6040. Further, we will consider the fifth structural growth with the target testing the level of 1.6200.


Yen

The yen retreated from a five-week high against the dollar as the US good macroeconomic indicators partly returned the investors’ confidence in the economic growth.

The US two-year bond yields have risen to 0.335 % from the marked 17-month 0.244 % low in the mid-week.

Trading recommendations

The pair dollar/yen offers the market to consider the possible correction with the growth to the level of 107.10. At present, we consider this structural components upwards to the level of 106.60 and downwards to the level of 106.00. Then we will consider the target the level of 107.10 testing. Later, we expect another trend decline downwards to the level of 105.00.


Gold

On Friday the gold price is showing its decrease as the world economic problems fell slightly after the US positive data publication on Thursday but concerns over the eurozone perspectives are still preserved.

Trading recommendations

The gold was trading within consolidation. At present, we consider the possible growth to the level of 1253. Then we expect the further decline back to the level of 1235 with its upward testing. Afterwards we consider the growth continuation to the level of 1280.



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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №20 from 25/10/2014

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

Sentiment on the euro has improved after the Germany’s Gfk consumer confidence rose in October to 8.5 from 8.4 in September whose index was revised upward from 8.3. Analysts had expected the index to decline to 8.0.

The single currency was also supported on Thursday after the euro zone recorded the business activity increase in October.

Trading recommendations

The pair euro/dollar is trading near its lows in the structural decline. At present, we consider the consolidation development range with the structural reversal formation. We consider the next growth wave starting possibility with the level of 1.2930 testing.


Pound

The British currency remains under pressure before the GDP data release. The earlier released statistics showed the UK retail sales decrease by 0.3% m/m and rise by 2.7% y/y versus expectations of 0.1% m/m and +2.8% y/y. The data confirmed the consumer sector weakness.

Trading recommendations

The pound/dollar is trading at the decline structure. Today we expect the consolidation development and the reversal formation. We consider the next growth wave starting possibility with the level of 1.6200 testing.


Yen

The Japanese yen rose for the first time during seven days against the dollar after the reports that a doctor from New York was hospitalized with the Ebola diagnosis. The deadly disease in the US largest city triggered the safe-haven assets demand as a result the yen rose by at least 0.2% against each of the 16 major currencies.

Trading recommendations

The pair dollar/yen has not worked out the growth wave target. At present, we consider the consolidation range development with the reversal structural. We expect another decline wave beginning after the level of 105.00 testing.


Gold

The gold prices are rising, although its growth is expected to be modest as the optimistic data about the US initial jobless claims, released on Thursday, continue to put pressure on the precious metal.

Trading recommendations

The gold is in the corrective decline structural. Today we consider the ability to recover the price to the level of 1240 and reduced to the level of 1235. Then, in case of breaking through 1245 upwards, we will consider the continued growth with the level testing of 1260. In case of breaking through the level of 1230 downwards we will consider the continued decrease as a correction to the level of 1215.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №21 from 01/11/2014

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The euro resumed its decline after the preliminary data showed the US GDP unexpected increase in the third quarter that confirmed the Federal Reserve decision validity about the QE program completion and indicates the positive trend continuation in the world largest economy.

Trading recommendations

The pair euro/dollar sharply fell. At present we consider the growth possibility with the top impulse breakthrough and it continue to perfect the level of 1.2700. Then we expect decline back to the level of 1.2630.


Pound

The pound is still under pressure against the dollar rise after the US strong economic data publication which overshadows the UK good reports.

The housing price index from Nationwide was 0.5% in October against the expected 9% y / y vs. 0.3% growth, 8.5% y/y.

Trading recommendations

The pair pound/dollar performed correction to the growth impulse. At present we consider an increase with the top impulse breakthrough and the growth continuation for the level testing of 1.6070. There we expect the consolidation with the growth continuation. We consider the structure for the level testing of 1.6200.


Yen

The Bank of Japan announced additional economic stimulating measures that were unexpected for traders. For the first time this half of the year, the Bank of Japan increased its assets purchase as the inflation target of 2% is becoming more elusive.

This decision emphasizes that the economic recovery plan, implemented by the Prime Minister Abe, was stalled after the April increased tax on sales that reduced consumer spending and therefore influenced the whole economy.

Trading recommendations

The pair dollar/yen continued to rise and exceeded the target of this growth wave. At present we consider the consolidation development with the reversal structure. Further we consider decrease for the level breakthrough of 112.20.


Gold

The tightening monetary policy perspectives are harmful for gold prices and it is difficult to compete with other investments, bringing interest income during the interest rates increase. The attractiveness of gold as a safe asset from economic uncertainty also is weakening as the US economic recovery is gaining momentum.

As a result the quotations pressure is still preserved and if the US economy continues its upward movement, any gold prices rise will be likely limited.

Trading recommendations

The gold is trading under pressure with a decease. We consider the level completion of 1165. Further we expect the consolidation range formation. We will consider the downward trend continuation upwards with the downward breakthrough- we will consider a return to the level of 1215.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №22 from 08/11/2014

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The euro resumed its decline after the preliminary data showed the US GDP unexpected increase in the third quarter that confirmed the Federal Reserve decision validity about the QE program completion and indicates the positive trend continuation in the world largest economy.

Trading recommendations

The pair euro/dollar sharply fell. At present we consider the growth possibility with the top impulse breakthrough and it continue to perfect the level of 1.2700. Then we expect a decline back to the level of 1.2630.


Pound

The pound is still under pressure against the dollar rise after the US strong economic data publication which overshadows the UK good reports.

The housing price index from Nationwide was 0.5% in October against the expected 9% y/y vs. 0.3% growth, 8.5% y/y.

Trading recommendations

The pair pound/dollar showed a correction to the growth impulse. At present we consider an increase with the top impulse breakthrough and the growth continuation to the level testing of 1.6070. There we expect the consolidation development with the growth continuation. We consider the structure for the level testing of 1.6200.


Yen

The Bank of Japan announced additional economic stimulating measures that were unexpected for traders. For the first time this half of the year, the Bank of Japan increased its assets purchase as the inflation target of 2% is becoming more elusive.

This decision emphasizes that the economic recovery plan, implemented by the Prime Minister Abe, was stalled after the April increased tax on sales that reduced consumer spending and therefore influenced the whole economy.

Trading recommendations

The pair dollar/yen continued to grow and exceeded the target of this growth wave. At present we consider the consolidation development with the reversal structure .Further we consider a decrease to the level breakthrough of 112.20.


Gold

The monetary policy tightening perspectives are harmful for gold prices and it is difficult to compete with other investments, bringing interest income during the interest rates increase. The gold attractiveness as a safe asset from economic uncertainty also is weakening as the US economic recovery is gaining momentum.

As a result the quotations pressure is still preserved and if the US economy continues its upward movement, any gold prices rise will be likely limited.

Trading recommendations

The gold is trading under pressure with decease. We consider the level completion of 1165. Further we expect the consolidation range formation. We will consider the downward trend continuation upwards with the downward breakthrough- we will consider a return to the level of 1215.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №23 from 15/11/2014

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The forecasts suggest that the 2014 inflation will be 0.5% rather than 0.7% as expected in the previous quarter, but in 2015 the price pressure will increase by only 1.0% rather than 1.2% as previously predicted. The long-term inflation expectations were also revised down to 1.8% from 1.9%. These survey results can be regarded as intensifying the pressure on the ECB toward the additional monetary policy easing, but these results did not exert impact on the market yesterday.

Trading recommendations

The pair euro/dollar has broken the side structure upwards. Today we consider the possibility to continue the decrease to the level of 1.2300. Next, we expect the pair to return to the level of 1.2450 and the test below the level. And then we will consider another structural decrease for the level of 1.2200 overcoming.


Pound

The RICS reports noted the price decline in the housing market that added pressure on the pound and led to the expectations growth towards the "pigeon" plan regarding the BoE policy. There will be no important economic statistics publication in the UK; the "cable" will remain under the external information influence and under just formed "bearish" sentiment.

Trading recommendations

The pound /dollar continues the structural downtrend development. We consider the trading range extension to the level of 1.5600. Next, we expect the correction with its return to the level of 1.5750. Then we expect another structural decrease for the minimum update.


Yen

According to the Reuters poll, the vast majority of the Japanese companies expect that the tax increase will be delayed or even canceled. The Japanese Nikkei stock market index rose by 0.6 percent on Friday.

Many participants in the foreign exchange market, especially foreigners, sell the yen to hedge positions in the stock market.

Trading recommendations

The pair has broken through the consolidation top. Thus the next target growth appeared for the level of 117.30 overcoming. Next we expect the pair decrease back to the level of 116.00. Then we will consider the another structural growth to the level of 118.00.



Gold

The traders still avoid active actions towards the precious metal in anticipation of the new guidelines.

The investors do not tend to buy gold, expecting the US Fed raising interest rates next year amid the economic recovery in the US. The monetary policy tightening is negative for the metal and it is difficult for the gold to compete with investments bringing the interest income during the interest rates rise.

Trading recommendations

The gold has broken through the side trend consolidation upwards. Never the less we expect the next decrease wave development for the level of 1140.40 overcoming. Next, we consider the new consolidation with the figure to continue decrease to the level of 1108.

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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №24 from 22/11/2014

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The reports about the euro area manufacturing and service sectors’ activity disappointed us – the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for November were recorded with a slowdown in the preliminary assessment, pointing out to the discouraging perspectives – the euro area composite indicator showed a decrease to 51.4 from 52.1 in October and was lower against the expected 52.2. Draghi’s speech, who said that the ECB is ready to take action if the inflation will remain low, put pressure on the pair.

Trading recommendations

The pair euro/dollar has traded in the structural correction, but it sharply decreased at the end of the week. Today we consider the possibility to continue the decrease to the level of 1.2200. Next, we expect the pair return to the level of 1.2600.


Pound

The British news will announce information about the UK economic situation. It is forecasted that the public sector net borrowings (PSNB) rose in October, but not so much as earlier to 7.8 billion vs. +11.8 billion pounds in September. It will not support the pound and the pair GBP/USD seems to continue to consolidate in the side corridor.

Trading recommendations

The pound /dollar continue the structural consolidation development. We consider the trading range extension to the level of 1.5720. Next, we will consider the increase development to the level of 1.5720. Then we expect another structural growth to the level of 1.5800.


Yen

On Friday morning the Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe dissolved the lower house of representatives to get more support for his economic and political program on the upcoming elections that will be on December 14.

The Japan's economy is recovering too slowly after the April sales tax increase, the Abe credibility ratings is falling – it is clear that we need new mechanisms to build a greater level of trust.

Trading recommendations

The pair USD/JPY has shown the impulse for decline. But we consider its potential only for correction to the level of 116.30. Next, we will consider the possibility of another structural growth for the maximum update.


Gold

Taking in consideration the Fed's comments regarding inflation contained in the published last meeting minutes, traders suggested that the central bank would not rush with a policy tightening and is unlikely to raise the rates earlier than expected. It helped the gold to rise a little.

Trading recommendations

The gold continues to trade in the structural consolidation center. At present we consider the growth at the level of 1210 possibility. Further, we expect again decrease to the level of 1188. Then we will consider another structural growth to the level testing of 1223.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №25 from 29/11/2014

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

Euro

The Germany consumer price inflation remains at the low level, adding negativity to the euro that with the US dollar resumed its decline and fell down to the level of 1.2445. It is well known that the low inflation is forcing the European Central Bank to take every effort for its acceleration. Thus, it is likely that the immediate economic stimulating measures will be announced at the next meeting, although some analysts believe that this time the ECB will refrain from taking any action. It can become a reason to take profits on the short positions, so the bears will be cautious within the euro sales in the short term.

Trading recommendations

The pair EUR/USD tried to develop the upward dynamics above 1.2500, but the pair came under pressure at the level of 1.2520. The euro is gradually decreasing tested the local support near 1.2460 that was later broken through, resulting in the pair decrease to 1.2460. Its inability to rise up and consolidate above 1.2500 keeps the risks of the renewed decline. The euro can fall down to 1.2358-1.2400 in the short term.


Pound

The British pound was declining the whole day against the US dollar that was supported amid the weak oil prices and the lack of major players in connection with the holiday in the US. All the growth that we saw last Wednesday, was completely played out, therefore the pair returned to the important support levels.

The GBP/USD rose to the level of 1.5830. Being under pressure from the sellers’ part, the pair resumed its decline as a result of which the support was broken through around 1.5700 and the pound fell down to 1.5645.

Trading recommendations

The pair attempts to rise above 1.5720 are faced with interest for its sale that suggests the pair decrease to 1.5600. Now, the pair needs to return back above 1.5760 for the growth resumption.


Yen

The official data released on Friday showed that the Japan household spending fell in October by year on year 4.0% compared with the expected decline by 4.8% after the 5.6% fall last month.

The preliminary report also showed that the Japan industrial production rose by 0.2% in October while it was expected decrease by 0.4%, after increasing by 2.9% in September.

Trading recommendations

The upward trend remains in force within the dollar/yen that was confirmed by the pair growth from the support level of 117.20 to the level of 118.65 achieved in the Asian session. This time bulls failed to reach highs at the level of 118.60 and the pair rebound is still limited by the support level of 118.00.


Gold

The gold price has been declining for the three sessions in a row and finished the week for the first time in the negative territory after the oil prices decrease that has increased the lower inflation possibility that in its turn will limit demand for the precious metal as a protection means against inflation.

Trading recommendations

The resistance is at the level of 1205, but the more serious resistance is 1221.00. Its completion will enhance the sentiment for the precious metal buying.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №26 from 06/12/2014

Hello, our forum dear visitors.

The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The European Central Bank left its refinancing rate unchanged on the record low at the level of 0.05%. It also left the deposit rate at the level of 0.2%. The European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the Governing Council would decide whether the current monetary policy was sufficient to raise inflation to the target level only at the beginning of next year and noted that the oil prices decline could make this target more difficult to achieve.

Trading recommendations

The pair euro/dollar has completed the growth structure. But then it formed another decline. At present we consider the wave decline development to the level of 1.2230. We expect the range of 1.2400-1.2350 testing and its breakthrough downwards for expansion to the level of 1.2280.


Pound

The Halifax report noted that the UK housing market continued to slow in November, the real estate prices from September to November increased by 0.7% compared with the previous three months growth by 0.9%. It has put some pressure on the pound, however, the major constraint was the fact that the monthly comparison prices increased by 04% m/m in November after falling by 0.4% m/m the previous month.

Trading recommendations

The pair pound/dollar failed to consolidate above 1.5700. Today the consolidation range low was updated. Today we consider the consolidation expansion downwards. The target is 1.5550. Next we will consider the next growth wave development.


Yen

The Japanese yen began to fall. The investors are tired to buy the dollar only on the quantitative easing expansion by the Bank of Japan amid the deteriorating macroeconomic data that finally led Japan into recession. The Japanese Nikkei225 stock index lost 0.19% and only powerful position redistribution of major players keeps the pair USD/JPY from a significant decrease.

Trading recommendations

The pair dollar/yen continues its gradual growth. The next step is the target at the level of 122.10. The next target is the pair return to the level of 119.30. All targets are forecasted based on another consolidation breakthrough upwards. At any time the market can complete its growth and take a sharp decline.


Gold

The gold prices fell slightly after the ECB President Mario Draghi made it clear that the question regarding the asset purchase program would be decided no earlier than in the first quarter of next year that disappointed markets which expected from the central bank to take the immediate measures of inflation and economic growth stimulation. In addition, certain pressure on the gold price leads to the expectations of the US labor market data publication.

Trading recommendations

The gold continues to stay in its consolidation range. At present we consider the growth testing to the upper bound with the level of 1223.00 overcoming. Next we expect decline to the lower bound at the level of 1196.00. As an alternative we do not exclude decrease into correction to the level of 1186.00.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №27 from 13/12/2014

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The European macro statistics has disappointed traders. The France consumer price index fell by 0.2% in November against the growth expectations by 0.2%, the Italy industrial production decreased by 0.1% in October against the growth expectations by 0.3%. The second LTRO round was neutral-negative: against the demand expectations for soft loans in the amount of 150 billion euro, the requests volume was in the amount of 129.8 billion euro. Formally, it is believed that the LTRO reduced demand will force ECB to start the corporate repayment and government bonds "somewhat sooner than later."

Trading recommendations

The importance of the 25th figure for euro/dollar is obvious as all attempts to overcome it are unsuccessful. This level continues to attract interest for sale, so the day before the pair fell to the support around 1.2370 that increases risks for a decrease to the 23rd figure. The pair euro/dollar needs to stay above ongoing support for the growth resumption and the next 25th figure breakthrough.


Pound

The pound continues to strengthen despite the fact that the US positive macroeconomic statistics supported the US dollar growth. In general, the dollar has all chances to continue its growth. In 2015, the expected interest rates increase in the US that will have a positive impact on the US dollar. The pair continues to trade with the positive mood and it requires the UK positive news for the continued growth.

Trading recommendations

The pair was able to rebound from the support around 1.5670 and rise up to 1.5740, breaking through the resistance around 1.5710. Now this level provides a support and its loss will lead to a decrease down to 1.5670. The pair needs to rise up and consolidate above 1.5830 to continue its growth.


Yen

The Japanese statistics published the industrial production revised data for October, the specifying value marked improvement - an increase by 0.4% m/m and a decline by 0.8% y/y when the previous calculations showed 0.2% m/m, -1.0% y/y. As for expectations for the near future, it is likely that the pair activity ahead of Sunday holidays will fall and there will be a range trading with a tendency to continue growth.

Trading recommendations

The pair dollar/yen rebounded to the level of 119.90. After the rebound bears made another attempt to break through downwards. They managed to push the pair below the previous low and test the support around 117.45. The pair decrease again attracted buying interest and in result it rose up to 119.50. Then the pair consolidated around the level of 118.60. We should use the dollar decline for opening long positions, not forgetting at the same time to insure the purchase by protective orders.


Gold

The strong data and expectations regarding the policy tightening support the US dollar which strengthened during the trades last week. It is a negative factor for gold as the metal denominated in dollars and is becoming more expensive for investors using other currencies when the dollar rises.

The gold prices are near the level of $1220 per ounce under the influence of the dollar rising value, but in general, the negative dynamics are still preserved. Investment demand has grown again than supported prices. The nearest support levels in gold are 1200-1220 the resistance levels are 1240-1255.

Trading recommendations

The gold perspectives look positive as long as it is trading above 1200.00. At the same time, its decrease and consolidation below the mark of 1200.00 will negate the positive expectations and will confirm a new reduction round to the minimum near 1130.00.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №28 from 20/12/2014

Hello, our forum dear visitors.

The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The Germany business confidence index has grown, still the data failed to support the euro. According to the Ifo institute, the leading index business sentiment in Germany rose to 105.5 points in December 2014 from 104.7 points the last month. These data are fully in line with economists' forecasts.

Trading recommendations

The pair EUR/USD tested the target at the support around 1.2260. Here the bears’ enthusiasm decreased and the pair entered the consolidation phase, rebounding to the level of 1.2300. It is possible that the support level of 1.2200 will be the pair temporary basis where bulls will try to develop an upward correction, where the nearest target will be the resistance near 1.2260. The support level of 1.2200 breakthrough will lead to the level of 1.2150 testing.


Pound

The UK news published the public finance and the retail sales report by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) in December. The public sector borrowing rose to 15.0 billion pounds in November against 7.7 billion pounds in October, but the necessity in cash has increased to 14.4 billion pounds after 2.6 billion pounds a month earlier. This dynamic is unlikely to please the "bulls" within the pound.

Trading recommendations

After another unsuccessful support 1.5545 test, the pair GBP/USD was able to rebound from it, breaking through the resistance at the mark of 1.5600 and to rise up to the level of 1.5680. The decrease is limited by the local support around 1.5650 that allows the resistance testing at the mark of 1.5750 in the short term. The loss of 1.5500 will lead to the level of 1.5450 testing with a high probability of its breakthrough.


Yen

The Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve politics differences will continue to strengthen the dollar against the yen. The Fed signaled that it could raise interest rates next year on Wednesday, replacing the intention to keep them close to the zero level for a "considerable period of time" with a promise to show "patience" before making a decision to raise the borrowings price.

Trading recommendations

The bears within the dollar/yen tried to take over the initiative, but their attempts were unsuccessful as the support near 118.30 was able to keep their onslaught. The bids that are located here, contributed to the pair growth to 119.56. The dollar failed to grow above this level although we should not exclude the level 120.00 testing.


Gold

Gold lost ground after new data pointed to the US economic growth continuation in the next year. Gold, which does not bring any interest income, it is possible hardly compete with other assets yielding interest, when interest rates rise.

Trading recommendations

Gold is not yet possible to fixate above 1200.00, that slightly increases the likelihood of the decrease to the minimum 1130.00, overcoming of which will lead to the mark of 1100.00 test.


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