Analysis from a European broker Forex.ee

[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №40 from 21/03/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The US dollar managed to recover most of the lost positions after the Janet Yellen’s Wednesday speech. This week the US Federal Reserve has revised the economic growth, the inflation and the interest rates forecasts for 2015. Janet Yellen also said that the Central Bank leadership was concerned about the dollar growth.

The euro bulls closed the previously opened long positions and some traders took the bears’ side. After all, the European QE and the Greece problems put pressure on the euro. And the Fed can raise interest rates in June when the macroeconomic data will signal about it (inflation, wages, labor market). It is risky to buy the euro in the current situation. However, the pair grew on the Friday’s trades.

Trading recommendations

The pair euro/dollar completely played back all the news background. And today we expect the pair decrease continuation. We do not exclude the consolidation from the level of 1.0600. Then again we expect a decline for the minimum update.


Pound

The pound temporarily recovered before having fallen back under pressure.

The earlier recovery was mainly dictated by technical factors. Moreover, the market bond yields spread between Great Britain and the Unites States is not in favor of the former one. Nevertheless, the pound increased at the end of the week.

The Bank of England governor Haldane said that if necessary, MPC could again take additional monetary policy easing measures to counteract the low inflation. He also added that the interest rate could be reduced to zero level.

Trading recommendations

The pair is still in the decline structure. At present we consider the minimum update. The target is the level of 1.4680. Further we consider the new consolidation and the pair return to the level of 1.4900.


Yen

The US dollar fell against the yen. The dollar index ended the week with the maximum decrease in July 2013 on the expectations that the Federal Reserve System (Fed) would not hurry with the basic interest rate increase.

The index value that is focused on the US dollar against 10 major world currencies, fell by 0,3% during the trades. Since the beginning of the week the indicator fell by 1.2%.

Trading recommendations

The pair dollar/yen continues to form a growth structure. We expect a new wave with the target of 121.60.


Gold

The gold futures have declined. The crude oil prices decrease put pressure on the gold prices. The crude oil futures are trading near the 6-year low as the world market is already oversaturated with supplies and is facing the possibility of the oil supplies resumption from Iran.

Trading recommendations

Now the gold forms a correction to the level of 1187. We shall consider its decline continuation with the level of 1160 testing within the downwards trend.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №41 from 28/03/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The US dollar resumed its rally after the jobless claims and PMI services positive reports. Both indicators have exceeded forecasts.

The claims number amounted 282 thousand (the forecast was 290 thousand; the previous value was 291 thousands).

The ECB President Mario Draghi has refrained from new comments. He is optimistic about the economic cycle and expects that the asset purchases volume would reach to 60 billion euro till the end of March.

Traders started to close long positions after the unsuccessful attempt to consolidate above 1.1000. The pair euro/dollar completed its growth on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Trading recommendations

There are only two trading days left before the end of the month. Now the fight is for the month candle closure. It is very important. The pair EUR/USD is showing a positive trend in the short term. We consider the euro purchases after the price reaches the level of 1.1040, the stop- loss is at the level of 1.0860, profit-taking is at the level of 1.1150.

Pound

The pound rose after the UK of strong retail sales publication. Actual values have exceeded forecasts; the previous figures were revised upwards. The pair GBP/USD has reached the mark of 1.4993.

The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney gave his speech. According to his statement, the Bank of England is planning to raise interest rates.

Trading recommendations

The pair is showing a positive trend in the short term. We expect purchases after the price reaches the level of 1.4970, the stop loss is at the level of 1.4870, the target is at the level of 1.5050.


Yen

The US dollar has not almost changed against the yen after the Japan controversial economic reports publication as optimism started to decline after the US jobless claims report one on Thursday.

The official data showed that the Japan household spending increased by 0.8% in February, exceeding expectations by 0.5% after the previous month decrease by 0.3%. A separate report showed that the Japan consumer price inflation fell to 2.0% on the annual basis in February, compared with a growth expectations to 2.1%, declining from 2.2% in January.

Trading recommendations

The pair USD/JPY is showing a negative trend now. We believe the yen will decrease after the price reaches the level of 118.50. We may place the stop- loss at the level of 119.50, we may take profit at the level of 117.75.


Gold

The gold prices are declining as traders decided to take profit after the seven-day rally, still the dollar is increasing due to the US statistics. The gold has strengthened this week amid the growing demand for the safe assets, followed after the global stock markets decrease resumption and the Saudi Arabia bombing aircraft reports and allies that support the rebels’ positions in Yemen.

Trading recommendations

The gold prices are declining as traders decided to take profit after the seven-day rally, still the dollar is increasing due to the US statistics. The gold has strengthened this week amid the growing demand for the safe assets, followed after the global stock markets decrease resumption and the Saudi Arabia bombing aircraft reports and allies that support the rebels’ positions in Yemen.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №42 from 04/04/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The pair euro/dollar was trading around the mark of 1.0870 amid its very low interest for sale. Yesterday investors started to correct positions before the Easter weekend. However, the weak non-farms release was followed by the pair sharp increase.

According to the data output, the number of the US jobless claims fell by 20 thousand and amounted to 268 thousand while it was forecasted 285 thousand. These informative reports can attract the Federal Reserve attention which is closely monitoring the situation in the employment market.

Trading recommendations

The main driver was the fundamental factor. We expect the pair’s increase to the level of 1.1040. Next, we do not exclude the growth development to update the current maximum. We do not exclude the decrease possibility towards the level of 1.0600.


Pound

The Market research results reports in the UK construction sector showed a stronger than expected activity slowdown. The construction sector PMI index fell to 57.8 from 60.1 when it was forecasted 59.7. The result above 50.0 indicates the construction sector growth and the March level can be considered positive, but the fact of the index decrease below the forecasted levels can upset investors. The pair grew amid the negative non-farm release.

Trading recommendations

The pair was trading in the narrow consolidation range almost the whole week. And on the fundamental background it can complete the upwards consolidation, breaking through the level of 1.5000 and expanding downwards with the target completion at the level of 1.4700.


Yen

The market expected the jobless claims number to grow by 245,000 and the unemployment rate will remain unchanged at the level of 5.5%. The March manufacturing PMI index came out 50.3 against the previous value of 50.4. The market may continue to stabilize in the mid-range. In the medium-term horizon the dollar can maintain a bullish trend, given the differences in monetary policy between the Fed and the ECB.

Trading recommendations

The fundamental factors were a main driver on Friday. The pair sharply fell. We do not exclude the new decrease wave development to the level of 118.00.


Gold

The gold prices fell from the one-month high on Thursday as some traders preferred to take profits before the US employment data output.

The six world powers and Iran agreement details, reached on Thursday, regarding the solutions for the Tehran's nuclear program key parameters, have reduced the demand for the gold as a safe haven.

Trading recommendations

The market exposed the gold growth structure. We see it as a correction to the decline impulse. At present, we consider the possibility of the current growth and new maximum update with a further decline to the level of 1175. The main target is the level of 1115.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №43 from 11/04/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The euro’s trades stabilized at Friday after the four sessions of massive sales. The pair stopped falling. Investors have sold the European currency for four days in a row, but the Greece factor still suspended this sales wave. Yesterday the Greek authorities reported to the world that they have managed to pay off the debt to the International Monetary Fund in the amount of 460 million euros. This is positive news, but it was expected.

According to the yesterday statistics, the US jobless claims number rose up by 14 thousand and amounted to 281 thousand against the forecast by 271 thousand for the week.

Trading recommendations

The pair has fulfilled the calculated target of 1.0650. The next step is the pair’s growth to the level of 1.1000. But the market has not generated the growth impulse yet. If the market is not able to form the reversal structure, we expect the decline continuation possibility for the current lows update.


Pound

The Bank of England left its monetary policy unchanged while the previously published data showed the UK trade deficit increase in February. The industrial production and manufacturing industries statistics can influence the dynamics course as well as the NIESR GDP data. In February the UK industrial production volume rose up by 0.1% m/m, the manufacturing production volume increased by 0.4% m/m.

Trading recommendations

The pair has broken through the consolidation range downwards. At present we consider the possibility of the pair decrease to the level of 1.4500. The local target is below 1.4800, then again testing downwards for the main target completion at the level of 1.4300.


Yen

The US dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen after the jobless claims strong data that reinforced expectations in relation to interest rates increase by the Federal Reserve System (FRS) in the second half of the year. The pair dollar/yen rose up to 120.60 that is the highest level for three weeks. The recent conflicting economic data raised doubts about the US economy and created uncertainty about the Fed interest rates rise timing. However the pair fell from the new maximums but it fixated above the level of 120.00.

Trading recommendations

The pair dollar/yen completed the growth structure local target. The next step is a decline back to the level of 119.00. Next we expect the pair increase for the level of 121.00 testing. As an alternative, we do not except the possibility of the growth continuation without a correction.


Gold

Despite the US non-farm payrolls weak employment report, investors still believe that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year. It can happen either in June or in September, but the interest rates rise timing will depend on the coming US macroeconomic statistics. Thus, demand for the US dollar as pressure on the gold is still preserved.

Trading recommendations

The gold after another decline has formed a consolidation. Next, the main scenario is the trend continuation downwards with the level of 1175 testing.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №44 from 18/04/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

Eurozone again does not publish any interesting reports. Despite the fact that the Greek question still remains unresolved, there is no special reaction from the pair. Even Christine Lagarde’s statements that the IMF will not provide respite to Athens in the debt payment had no pressure on the euro. Of course, later at the end of the week we do not exclude profit taking which can cause the pair rebound from the current levels. The United States released the inflation data that dropped by 0.1% in annual terms while the core inflation rose by 1.8%.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair EUR/USD will show a positive dynamics. The euro purchases are possible after the price reaches the level of 1.0800, the stop loss is at the level of 1.0600, profit-taking is possible at the level of 1.0900.


Pound

The UK shall publish the labor market report. The jobless claims number fell by 20,700 in March compared to 31,000 the previous month as it was forecasted 29 500. The average salary in the UK increased by 1.7% in February, taking into account premiums compared with a growth by 1.8% the previous month as it was expected growth by + 1.8%. In the light of this the pound can try to break through the resistance at the level of 1.5000. Although it will be extremely difficult for it to rise in terms of political uncertainty.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair may show a positive dynamics. The pound purchases are possible after its reaching the level of 1.5000, the stop loss is at the level of 1.4800, profit- taking is at the level of 1.5050.


Yen

The pair USD/JPY dynamics may be affected by the US consumer price inflation and the consumer confidence data output from the Michigan University. Now the base of any movements is expectations, concerning the US Federal Reserve monetary policy. The US regulator interest rate increase possibility has been already put in the pair price.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair may show a negative dynamics. The yen sales are possible after the price reaches the level of 118.50, the stop loss is at the level of 119.50, the profit-taking is at the level of 118.00.


Gold

The gold prices have grown as the US Thursday disappointing data has created uncertainty about the interest rate increase terms by the Federal Reserve that continues to put pressure on the US dollar.

Trading recommendations

The gold stabilized near the mark of 1200.00. Above this level there is the resistance near the recent highs at the level of 1230. There is the support at the level of 1185 below the level of 1175.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №45 from 25/04/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The US initial jobless claims number rose by one thousand and amounted to 295 thousand. The average forecast assumes reduction to 290 thousand.
Still the housing market report disappointed very much. The new home sales fell to 11.4% in February, even taking into account seasonal fluctuations and amounted to 481 thousand. This is the first fact of decline for three months and it is so large-scale. It was expected that the indicator would be 514 thousand. The February data were the weakest for the year and a half. The average house price has also decreased.

Trading recommendations

The pair was able to develop another growth wave. The whole structure has a pronounced corrective nature. The basic scenario considers the reversal structure development at the currents lows. Further we expect another structure development with the pair reduction for the level breakthrough of 1.0500.


Pound

Despite the UK retail sales decline by 0.5% (m/m) in March the pair GBP/USD remained at the level of 1.5000 and grew above the level of 1.5100 amid the US dollar weakness. The pressure on the world reserve currency caused a growth for the last week to 295 thousand of the US initial jobless claims which exceeded the forecast by 288 thousand.

Trading recommendations

The pair formed another growth structure. We believe that it is a correction structure. We consider technical reversal patterns further development for a decrease to the level of 1.4850.


Yen

The yen strengthens its position amid the dollar weakness and correction in the global stock markets. According to the Bank of Japan governor Kuroda, inflationary pressure continues to strengthen amid the inflationary expectations growth and Finance Minister Aso said that Japan was no longer in deflation, noting, however, that the central bank would continue to implement the stimulating monetary policy.

Trading recommendations

The pair dollar/yen is falling. The market has corrected another growth structure. If the pair goes upwards, we believe in the level testing of 121.00. Shall the pair go downwards we expect the level of 118.00 breakthrough.


Gold

Gold prices have not changed as the dollar recovered after the US weak economic reports in the previous session while markets were waiting for the US further data. The gold quotations decreased at the end of the week.

Trading recommendations

The gold came out of the consolidation range. We do not exclude the further level of 1210 testing. Then we anticipate a decrease for the minimum breakthrough and the range extension downwards. The first decline target is the level of 1150.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №46 from 02/05/2015


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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

It was noted that 36 thousand of new jobs appeared in the euro zone, but only 8 thousand appeared in Germany that was worse than expected, still this information did not displease the market. There was a slight pressure on the euro in the morning after the Germany retail sales and the France consumer spending reports recorded a minus on the month basis. There will not be published any Eurozone important messages. The European currency will trade under the external data influence and can decline against the dollar if the US statistics do not announce the negative results.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair EUR/USD may show a correction development. The euro can decrease to the mark of 1.1100. Next decrease target will be 1.0500.


Pound

The UK lending activity increased in March – the net consumer lending is expected with an increase by 2.6 billion pounds against the earlier +2.5 billion pounds, the mortgage loans increase by 1.8 billion pounds after +1.7 billion pounds in February, the number of mortgage approvals to 62.3 thousand against 61.8 in the previous period. The positive changes are predicted in the manufacturing sphere – the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) can show a growth to 54.5 in April from 54.4 in March. In general, there are no reasons for disappointment and the pound can receive support for the growth resumption if the forecasts are correct.

Trading recommendations

The pair GBP/USD may show a correction development in the short term. The pound/dollar can break the support level of 1.5100. this breakthrough will be followed by a decrease to the level of 1.4580.


Yen

The Japanese Finance Ministry data for the last week is showing a slight increase in demand for the foreign assets among the Japanese investors. The foreign bonds purchases growth amounted to 185.3 billion yen, the foreign shares purchases increase is shown in 170.0 billion yen. But perhaps, because of the Bank of Japan pessimism it was a purchases surge this week that caused demand for the US dollar and we will learn about it in a week. Also, if investors expect the US indicators further growth, these purchases are worthwhile. The yen returns to the direct correlation with the US stock market. The ideological basis can be the idea about the GPIF pension fund share portfolio increase to 25%.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair USD/JPY may show a positive trend. We suppose the pair will go to first 120.40. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 121.50.


Gold

The gold quotations strong decrease at the end of the week returned the metal to the 1.5-month range lower bound.

The gold futures were declining during the trades on Friday.

Trading recommendations

The session minimum was the mark of 1170.25 dollars per ounce. The gold found support at the level of 1170.00 dollars and the resistance at the level of 1210 dollars.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №47 from 09/05/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The euro zone data was multidirectional, still the Greek problems general negative background inclined investors to sales. The Germany industrial orders rose in March, still its growth is worse than it was forecasted 0.9% against 1.6%, the Eurozone retail sector business activity index increased from 48.6 to 49.5, but the trade balance decreased in France from -3.6 billion euros (revised from -3.4 billion) to -4.6 billion euros. Also, the Spain and the France 10-year bond yields were sold as the higher bond yields than it had been before. The US indicators were better than forecasts. The number of jobless claims for the last week was 265K against 277K and 262K the previous one. The last month non-farm sector new jobs was positive – 223K. The forecast is 228 thousand against 126 thousand in March.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair EUR/USD will show a positive trend. The euro purchases are possible when the price reaches the level of 1.1350, the stop loss is at the level of 1.1265 and profit-taking is at the level of 1.1415.


Pound

According to the preliminary results, the UK Parliamentary elections appeared to be more positive than a few months as the preliminary polls had showed earlier. The current Prime Minister David Cameron’s conservative party from the parliament 650-seats gets almost half of them- 316 seats, the Miliband’s Labour party takes 239 seats, the Scottish National Party (Nick Klegg) takes 58 seats, the Liberal Democrats take 10 seats. Now, there is no doubt that David Cameron will be a prime minister. In order to set up the majority in Parliament Conservatives will be in a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. The pound has increased more than two hundred points amid this news. After the weekend investors will calm down and will follow the general market trend. It is still in the US dollar favor as evidenced by the oil and gold prices decline.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair GBP/USD will show a positive trend. The pound purchases are possible when the price reaches the level of 1.5480, the stop loss is at the level of 1.5420 and profit-taking is at the level of 1.5510.


Yen

The dollar rose against the yen as the US dollar is generally supported by the jobless claims optimistic report while the Bank of Japan last policy meeting minutes showed that the majority of the board members are in favor of the asset purchases continuation.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair USD/JPY will show a positive trend. The yen sales are possible when the price reaches the level of 119.10, the stop loss is at the level of 119.80 and profit-taking is at the level of 118.65.


Gold

The Gold prices grew, however, their growth is constrained by demand for the dollar supported by the jobless claims while the markets are guided by the US non-farm payrolls government employment data.

Trading recommendations

The gold will likely find the support at the level of 1165.00 and the resistance at the level of 1215.00.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №48 from 16/05/2015


Hello, our forum dear visitors.

The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The euro consolidation on the local maximum was again extended, pushing the pair to the upper bound. The US worsened inflation indicators were reason for it. The April producer price index fell by 0.4% against the growth expectations by 0.1%, the base CPI was -0.2% against 0.1%. Also taking into consideration the fact that Germany and France had the day off and that the euro showed the greatest volatility in the US session, we assume that traders were more impressed by the US Wednesday weak retail sales.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair EUR/USD may show a positive trend. The euro purchases are possible when the price reaches the level of 1.1520, the stop loss is at the level of 1.1440 and profit-taking is at the level of 1.1560.


Pound

The pair GBP/USD rebounded from the session highs, demonstrating volatile trades amid the anemic session and the empty European calendar.

The pound rebound was amid the dollar recovery: the dollar index recovered from the 3-month low and is trading around 93.55, + 0.15% intraday. The market movement drivers can become the US industrial production, manufacturing activity and consumer sentiment reports.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair GBP/USD may show positive dynamics. The pound purchases are possible when the price reaches the level of 1.5800, the stop loss is at the level of 1.5730 and profit-taking is at the level of 1.5850.


Yen

The yen remains under pressure against the dollar amid the demand decrease for the safe assets. This week the pair USD/JPY fell after the retail sales disappointing report which increased concerns about the US economic recovery and the Fed interest rates increase.

The data showed that the US retail sales amounted to 0.0% in April against + 0.2% while sales excluding cars rose only by 0.1% against the growth forecast by + 0.5%. Later, however, the US labor market solid data supported the US dollar.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair USD/JPY will show negative dynamics. The yen sales are possible when the price reaches the level of 118.90, the stop loss is at the level of 119.20 and profit-taking is at the level of 118.70.


Gold

The gold is supported mainly by speculations as whether the Fed can increase its key interest rate later than expected towards the end of the year or early 2016.

According to the recent study, the gold reserves of the five world largest gold miners were checked and confirmed, but they continue to deplete. On average the precious metal reserves fell by 12% in the period from 2013 to 2014. The study dealt with the following mining companies: Barrick, AngloGold, Newmont, Goldcorp and Kinross.

Trading recommendations

The gold is slightly correcting while the resistance is at the level of 1230, then at the levels of 1235 and 1245.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №49 from 23/05/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

Germany has published multidirectional statistics: the IFO expectations index fell to 103.0 in May (103.1 forecast) against the previous 103.5, The IFO business climate index fell to 108.5 in May (108.3 forecast) against the previous 108.6 while under the current conditions the IFO index rose up to 114.3 in May (forecast 113.5) against the previous 113.9. We received the US April inflation data. The consumer price index decreased by 0.1%, the core index increased by 0.3%.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair EUR USD may show a negative trend. The first target is the level 1.0900, the next one is the level of 1.0800.


Pound

The UK April retail sales showed their rapid growth by 1.2% vs. 0.4%. After this positive event there appeared suggestions that due to the consumer spending increase the economy will show growth rather than the Bank of England declined assessment by 2.4% last week, the Bank of England governor Mark Carney’ speech causes increased attention. Negativity could be caused by the UK net borrowings public sector growth and expectations make up 7.8 billion pounds against the earlier 6.7 billion pounds. However the data came out 6.8B.

Trading recommendations

The pair GBP/USD may show a negative trend in the short term. We suppose the pair will go to 1.5450 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5100.


Yen

The Japanese yen is declining after the US stock indices slight decrease. The pair USD/JPY is close to the historic highs and this fact can have a greater risk degree than the situation in the stock markets. On Friday investors were taking profits on the historic highs after the preceding five-day rally. The Nikkei225 fell only by 0.15% against the Dow Jones zero closing.

The Bank of Japan kept its current monetary policy and identified the economic improvement as moderate.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair USD/JPY may show a positive trend. After the resistance level of 122.00 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance 124.20 will be opened.


Gold

The gold fell to 1203.77 dollars per ounce. Traders continue to adopt wait-and-see position, not being in hurry to buy massively the precious metal despite the relatively low levels.

The FOMC members’ speech indicated that the last meeting results, most likely, will match to the previous one. However, traders preferred to close some positions.

Physical demand for gold caused some support which is seasonal in nature and which does not particularly depend on the economic developments.

Trading recommendations

The resistance remains at the level of 1210. Only after its breakthroughs we may talk about the sentiment resumption for the precious metal purchase. The nearest support remains near 1200.


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