Analysis from a European broker Forex.ee

[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №50 from 30/05/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

European indices came out better than expected, but the media is full of gloomy forecasts about the Greek problem which put pressure on the euro and the British pound. The Deutsche Bank has determined the probability of the Greece agreement failure with creditors by 40% and almost one hundred percent probability of the debt non-payment to the IMF even if signing such an agreement. The ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny (Austria CB) declared to the general public the lack of legal grounds for granting the interim lending to Greece. According to the statistics: the Germany import prices increased by 0.6% in April against the growth forecast by 0.5%, the Swiss trade balance for April rose up from 2.5 billion francs to 2.86 billion.

Trading recommendations

The pair EUR/USD shows a negative trend but we expect the pair’s growth in the short term. The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1150. After breaking 1.1150 the buyers may go to 1.1200.


Pound

The UK first quarter GDP second assessment remained unchanged. The GDP second assessment remained unchanged at the level of 0.3%. The number of the UK mortgage lending permits for April increased from 39.2 thousand (revised from 38.8 thousand) to 42.1 thousand while it was expected 39.2 thousand.

The GfK consumer confidence report pointed out to the indicator decrease to 1 from 4 while it was expected no changes. Naturally, it will not stimulate the market to positive emotions within the pound.

Trading recommendations

The pair GBP/USD may show a positive trend. We suppose the pair will go to 1.5420 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.5700.


Yen

The dollar fell against the yen after the Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said that the yen recent decline was "sharp" intensifying speculation about the BoJ possibility intervention to prevent the Japanese yen sharp decline which had previously reached the minimum level for 12.5 years against the US dollar amid expectations about the US and Japan central banks different monetary policy approaches as the Bank of Japan moved the dates for achieving the inflation target for fiscal 2016.

The central bank last meeting minutes showed that some participants worried that the inflation target would not be reached until 2017.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair USD/JPY may show a downward trend. We expect the 123.00 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 121.80.


Gold

Gold prices have not changed as investors are waiting for the US economic growth data publication in the first quarter after a series of the recent US economic data led to the dollar growth.

Trading recommendations

The nearest support is at the level of 1180.00. In its turn, the level breakthrough of 1180 may lead to the gold decline towards 1170.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №51 from 06/06/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The official data showed that the Germany industrial orders rose up by 1.4% in April, beating the growth expectations by 0.5%. The March indicator was revised to the growth by 1.1% to 0.9%.

The Non-Farms report came out higher than expected at the level of 228K.

The negative factor for the euro is still the situation in Greece. Greece appealed to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and proposed to merge the four payments that country has to submit the fund in June and to pay the entire amount at the end of this month.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair EUR / USD may show a positive trend. The euro purchases are possible when the price reaches the level of 1.1350, the stop loss is at the level of 1.1240 and the take-profit is at the level of 1.1430.


Pound

The Bank of England kept the interest rates at the mark of 0.5% while the quantitative easing program at the level of 375 billion pounds and the bank did not give any comments. The US news background is empty, firstly, the pound will trade on expectations and then under the main news influence- the US employment data.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair GBP / USD may show a positive trend. The pound purchases are possible when the price reaches the level of 1.5440; the stop loss is at the level of 1.5310 and the take-profit is at the level of 1.5510.


Yen

The pair USD / JPY is above 125.00 as the market ignores the dollar decline against other currencies.
The pair cross-rate significant depreciation is problematic because the yen is under pressure amid the US and Japan different monetary policies. The newsflow showed the Japan leading economic indicators increase in April to 107.2 against 106.

The pair dynamics is affected by the US employment data which came out in line according to our expectations higher than expected – 228K. In addition, the pair is supported by the US Treasury bond yields increase. Thus, the 10year bond yields have increased by 1% to 2.388%.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair USD / JPY may show a positive trend. The yen purchases are possible when the price reaches the level of 124.60, the stop loss is at the level of 124.10 and the take-profit is at the level of 124. 124.90


Gold

The gold recovered from the area that it had reached the yesterday month low of 1172.40 that was set during the dollar growth that followed by the US labor market positive data release. The gold future prospects will be based on the NFP report. The report came out at the level of 228K higher than expected.

Trading recommendations

The former support at the level of 1180.00 is becoming an intermediate resistance now. In turn, the level of 1172 breakthrough may lead to the gold decline towards the levels of 1169.50 and 1159.40.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №52 from 13/06/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The Commerce Department reported that the US retail sales increased by 1.2% m/m in May 2015 that coincided with the analysts' forecasts. According to the revised data, sales rose up by 0.2% in April while it was previously reported the zero change. The retail sales rapid growth suggests the consumer sector recovery after a cautious beginning of the year.

The pair euro/dollar bear losses amid the new dollar purchases wave in anticipation of the Greece news. We should remind that the IMF representative said that there were serious disagreements on the most key issues and attempts to reduce them were not successful and therefore the fund delegation decided to break off negotiations and left Brussels. However, the pair increased at the end of the trades on Friday.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair EUR/USD may show a positive dynamics. The price is likely to go downward to the level of 1.1320. Then the pair can decrease to 1.5000.


Pound

The pound rose up this week after the UK National Statistics Office reported that the industrial production volume rose up by 0.4%, exceeding the forecast increase by 0.1% after the revised upward rise by 0.6% in March.

Yesterday at the London session closing the spread was -37.3 basis points, such levels were observed the last time on March 31 when the pound was trading below the 49th figure against the dollar. However, traders reacted to the US positive statistics quite sluggish - hence demand for the dollar is low and therefore bulls tested the resistance level of 1.5550.

Trading recommendations

The pair GBP/USD may show a positive trend. The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5600. After breaking 1.5600 the buyers may go to 1.5800.


Yen

After the Japanese Central Bank governor Kuroda's verbal intervention about the undesirable further yen decline, it continues strengthening (it is declining, according to the pair USD/JPY schedule) despite the American stock market upward vertical growth.

The yen compensated its recent strengthening in some extent, caused by the Japan bank manager Kuroda's statement about the absence of the Japanese yen further prospects.

The Japanese Finance Minister Amari said that the markets misinterpreted the chief banker words. On Thursday the stock market growth caused the pressure on the yen that has led to the reduced demand for safe assets.

Trading recommendations

The USD/JPY may show a negative trend. We suppose the pair will go to 123.00 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 121.50.


Gold

The gold is consolidating after the latest failed growth attempt. The pressure on the gold price is caused by the dollar and the stock indices growth resumption which reduces demand for the safe assets.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1170.00, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1160.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №53 from 20/06/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The IMF is not going to make any concessions to Greece. Even with EU the fund has points of disagreement, it agreed to continue to lend to Greece only in the case of the European investors debt restructuring.

The LTRO program the ECB put 73.8 billion euros against the spring 97.8 billion. Still investors are more inclined to the bond yields sales by the ECB. The US jobless claims number amounted to 267K vs. 279K the previous week, the consumer prices index rose up 0.4% in May, the core index rose up by 0.1%. The the 1st quarter payments balance was better than expected: -113 000 000 000 to $ -116 000 000 000.

Trading recommendations

The pair EUR/USD may show a positive trend soon. The euro can grow to the resistance level of 1.1410. After breaking 1.1410 the buyers may go to 1.1500.



Pound

The US positive macroeconomic statistics is not able to overcome the majors' inertial increase against the dollar. The euro showed increase by 23 points, the pound by 48 points. The pound growth contributed to the May retail sales good data: 0.2% against the expected 0.0%.

Obviously, in anticipation of the weekend and because of the strong resistance levels presence the British pound suspended its growth against the dollar and the Friday session it was trading in the side range with a tendency for decrease within the correction.

Trading recommendations

The pair GBP/USD may show a positive trend in the short term. The pound needs to break above 1.5910 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.6000 will be opened after this breakthrough.


Yen

Over the past four days the Japanese yen has been contrary to the American stock market amid the previous weak economic data and in anticipation of the Bank of Japan meeting. We should note that the Japan stock market has been declining for four days. Only on Friday the Nikkei225 rose up by 0.67%, it was unable to withstand the preceding Dow Jones growth by 1.0%. The activity index in all economic sectors (All Industries Activity) for April showed increase by only 0.1% against the growth forecast by 0.3%. On Friday there was held a press conference by the Central Bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda. The Bank of Japan left the monetary policy unchanged.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair of USD / JPY will show a negative trend. We recommend going short with the first target – 122.50. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 121.00.


Gold

Yesterday the gold consolidated after its growth that was prompted by speculations about the Greece debt situation. The EU Luxembourg finance ministers meeting brought no agreement with Greece. At the same time the ECB informed the Euro group that it was not sure that Greek banks would be opened on Monday, the EU spokesman Disselblum said that it was impossible to reach an agreement with Greece until the end of the month.

Trading recommendations

The gold is trading around 1200.00. We advise to consider long positions with the first target – 1220.00. After fixing above the first target, the level 1230.00 will become the next one.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №54 from 27/06/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The euro zone finance ministers third meeting was dedicated to Greece, unfortunately it did not bring results. The next negotiations are scheduled for Saturday, and Greece will again try to agree on getting new loans to the IMF on Tuesday to pay 1.6 billion euro.

Events associated with Greece overshadowed the US economic statistics from which the Fed raising interest rates depend. The May USA consumer spending report growth has been the highest in nearly six years.

Trading recommendations

In the short term, the EUR/USD may show a positive trend. The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1200, 1.1500.


Pound

On Thursday, the Eurogroup summit ended without results and high officials have decided to continue the debate on Saturday.

The June UK retail sales balance fell from 51 to 29 while we expected 32, the pound has managed to grow for a day on 39 points.

The news background is filled with the political component, the market is looking forward to M.Karni report at the conference in London. It is expected that the BoE chief to address the issues relating to the interest rates growth. We predict the volatility increase, otherwise the "cable" may continue to consolidate, waiting for Greece situation overcome.

Trading recommendations

The GBP / USD may show a positive trend. We advise to long with the first target – 1.5800. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.6000.


Yen

The dollar fell against the yen after upbeat economic data in Japan, while concerns about the Greek talks support the demand for the Japanese currency as a safe haven.

The official data earlier showed that household spending rose 2.4% last month, surpassing expectations for growth of 2.2%, after falling in April by 5.5%. The separate report showed that consumer prices rose in May to an annual rate of 0.5%, more than the expected growth of 0.4%, after increasing 0.6% the previous month.

Trading recommendations

In the short term, the currency USD / JPY may show a positive trend. After the resistance level of 124.20 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance level of 126.00 will be opened.


Gold

The gold prices fell as the encouraging US data continued to support the dollar, while the markets focused on the Greek negotiations.

Trading recommendations

Futures are likely to receive resistance at the 1180.00. In the case of its break upwards the quotes may grow to 1200.00.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №55 from 04/07/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The European currency has remained in the range after the number of important fundamental publications that failed to provide the necessary support to the US dollar. The market did not undergo the serious changes before the weekend where there will be a referendum in Greece. The 1st quarter of 2015 wage growth was very high that supported the German economy. According to the German Federal Statistical Office Destatis, wages in Q1 grew by 2.5% compared to the 1st quarter of 2014.

The market's attention is entirely directed to Greece. Opinion polls in Greece show that the number of speakers "for" and "against" creditors' proposal is equal. The creditors remain adamant as well.

Trading recommendations

In the short term, the pair EUR/USD may show a negative trend. After reaching the level of 1.1050 it may fall to the level of 1.0950.


Pound

The June business activity index in the UK construction sector rose more than expected - up to 58.1 from 55.9, when it was expected to grow to 56.6, showing the rapid growth in the housing sector, as well as in the civil and commercial projects. Data from the US labor market came with a negative tone and the dollar reacted with a decrease, but not for long and gently. The June non-farm payrolls were 223 thousands. But with the unemployment at 5.3% which decreased from 5.5% at once, even this increase is a very good indicator.

Trading recommendations

In the short term, the GBP/USD may show a positive trend. After reaching the level of 1.5690 it may go to the level of 1.5800.


Yen

The Japanese yen was traded in a narrow range. Despite the decline in stock index Nikkei225 by 0.44% and Dow Jones losses by 0.16%, the yen was in a symbolic plus. Obviously, investors are waiting for the vote in Greece outcome.

The main positive factor for the yen to grow is Greek.

Trading recommendations

The USD/JPY may show a positive scenario. Shall the pair reach the level of 123.00 it may open the way to the level of 123.80, and further to 124.40.


Gold

The gold price rose, but remained close to the three and a half months of 1156.85 dollars per ounce minimum after the US employment report turned out to be below the forecasts. The gold rose after the US data release, but 0.7% below the opening level of the week beginning. The USA labor market did not support the US dollar. According to the US Labor Department, the latest initial jobless claims number rose by 10,000 and amounted 281 000. Economists had forecasted that the number would be
270,000.

Trading recommendations

The gold may show a negative trend. If the price reached the level of 1150 the way to the level of 1142 may be opened.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №56 from 11/07/2015

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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The European currency has stopped its decrease and rebounded upwards. Partly the dollar weakness happened after the euro growth after the FOMC last meeting minutes. We should remind: the authorities did not still voice a clear timetable of possible rate increases. The US central bank is still concerned about the economic situation and external risks as Greece and China do nothing to improve the prospects. That is why pressure on the dollar is still preserved.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair EUR/USD may show a negative trend. The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1000 and 1.1080.


Pound

The pound held the trades in the downward trend. However, it increased later. The Bank of England did not announce any surprises: the rate remained at the level of 0.5% and the purchasing assets program amounted to 375 billion pounds. Now Greek uncertainty was added to disinflation internal risks and under these conditions Mark Carney is unlikely to hint at the possible tightening monetary policy.

The British pound is likely to remain in the narrow range amid the trade balance divergent data for May and its forecast amounted -9.7 billion pounds against -8.6 billion in April and the construction sector production volume is expected with an increase by 0.7%.

Trading recommendations

The pair GBP/USD may show the negative trend. The pair can decrease to the support level of 1.5300. After breaking 1.5300 the buyers may go to 1.5150.


Yen

One of the few currencies against which the dollar could strengthen was the Japanese yen. The pair USD/JPY rebounded from the level of 120.54 to the level of 122.90, intending to test the level of 123.00. However, the growth stop was followed by 10 points from the mark. It is learned that the Japan corporate goods price index registered a sharp decline in June - by 0.2% m/m and 2.4% y/y vs. 0.3% m/m - 2.1% y/y in May that added negativity to the currency.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair USD/JPY may show a negative trend. We suppose the pair will go to 120.00 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 118.50.


Gold

The Gold prices note their growth as demand for the dollar weakened on Thursday after the US data jobless claims publication while hopes for the Greek debt crisis solution has weakened demand for the dollar.

Athens is eager to get at least 50 billion during the next three years. In exchange the government has presented a number of austerity measures which are estimated to total 12-13 billion - far more than the previous Greece commitments.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the gold may show a negative trend. After the level of 1154.00 breakthrough down the way to the support 1142.00 will be opened.


Thank you for using the European broker Forex.ee Analytics! Have a profitable trade!

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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №57 from 18/07/2015

Hello, our forum dear visitors.

The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The last trading day was marked by the pair EUR/USD decrease. The Greek parliament hard reforms package approval which should serve as the key to getting bailout funds, could not support the euro and now the pair euro/dollar fell below the mark of 1.0900.

Things were fueled by the ECB President Mario Draghi comments who said that the quantitative easing program would remain in force as long as inflation returns to the target level. It means that until September of next year the euro will have, at least, one downside driver.

Trading recommendations

The pair EUR/USD may show a negative trend in the short term. When the pair reaches the level of 1.0800 and in case of this level breakthrough the way to the level of 1.0640 will be opened.


Pound

The pair pound/dollar is still within the side channel, remaining slightly above the psychological level of 1.5600. Now this level has turned into support and attempts to break through this level without significant drivers are unlikely successful.

There were published the June inflation indicators in the United States which come under close market attention. The inflation slightly increased. The price pressure shows the growth signs; it is a powerful bullish signal for the US dollar as it will increase the likelihood Fed interest rate hike in the foreseeable future.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair GBP/USD may show a positive trend. When the pair reaches the level of 1.5700 and in case of this level breakthrough the way to the level of 1.5910 will be opened.


Yen

The pair dollar/yen is still around the mark of 124.00. Prices were finally able to breakthrough it, but this movement is stopped. Now it looks like the yen is almost the only currency against which the dollar could move up steadily.

The downside driver for the Japanese yen still are the Bank of Japan recent statements- the regulator has lowered the consumer price inflation forecast for the year to 0.7% from 0.8%, noting the possibility of additional economic stimulus through the financial market.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair USD/JPY may show a positive trend. When the pair reaches the level of 125.00 and in case of this level breakthrough the way to the level of 125.80 will be opened.


Gold

The gold remains under pressure amid the renewed dollar and global stock markets growth following an agreement with the Greece creditors which ended with the reduced demand for safe assets. The Fed monetary policy tightening can further reduce investors' interest in precious metals.

Having continued to decline the price tested the support around 1142.00 dollars per ounce. Now the level which continued to hold back the bears' movement is broken through.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the gold may show a negative trend. When the pair reaches the level of 1120.00 and in case of this level breakthrough the way to the level of 1080.00 will be opened.


Thank you for using the European broker Forex.ee Analytics! Have a profitable trade!

Our other services, as well as Forex.ee trading conditions you can find at our official website.

 

[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №58 from 25/07/2015

Hello, our forum dear visitors.

The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The European currency has managed to hold its position against the US dollar and remained at the acceptable levels for its buying after a number of fundamental data had supported the US dollar. Thus, the initial jobless claims number fell by 26,000 and 255,000 that is the lowest level since November 1973. Many economists have blamed it on the seasonal volatility, but in general it should be clear that the US labor market continues to show its recovery. The previous week data have not been revised. Economists had expected the number of claims would amount to 278,000.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair EUR/USD may show a negative trend. Reaching the level of 1.0900 and its breakthrough will open the way to the level of 1.0800.


Pound

The British pound again became a star in the market. The only difference is that we counted on its growth, expecting the retail sales and lending positive data, but it was quite the opposite. The June retail sales fell by 0.2% against growth expectations by 0.4% and in annual terms it amounted to 4.0% y/y against expectations by 4.9% y/y. In this regard, the pound could no longer resist the American record low jobless claims; the number was 255 thousand that has been the lowest value for 43 years.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair GBP/USD may show a negative trend. Reaching the level of 1.5400 and it breakthrough will open the way to the level of 1.5200.


Yen

The yen stayed within the range of 124.70-120.40 pondering upon the situation in the US stock market. There was the June Japan trade balance at the level of expectations - the negative balance increased from -0.16 trillion yen (it was revised towards improvement from-0.18 trillion) to -0.25 trillion yen, but the price could stay in the current range due to the Japanese stock market local stability. The scandal around the Toshiba company did not bring this price out from this range that, as it turned out, presented the phony balance sheets.

In the preliminary assessment the Japan manufacturing sector business activity for July showed an increase from 50.1 to 51.4 at the more modest forecast of 50.5.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair USD/JPY will show a positive trend. Reaching the level of 125.00 and its breakthrough will open the way to the level of 125.70.


Gold

The market precious metals are showing good pace of recovery amid the US dollar decline. It is possible the market recovery for a short period of time, but indicators have pointed to the downward trend continuation for a long time.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the gold may show a negative trend. Reaching the level of 1080.00 and its breakthrough will open the way to the level of 1050.00.


Thank you for using the European broker Forex.ee Analytics! Have a profitable trade!

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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №59 from 01/08/2015

Hello, our forum dear visitors.

The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The Ministry of Commerce reported that the second quarter US GDP slightly accelerated its growth after the weak start in 2015, still it is lower than in the 1st half of 2014. The GDP increased by 2.3% in the second quarter, having corrected for seasonal variations. Economists had forecasted the GDP growth by 2.7% y / y. The Commerce Department also reported that the GDP grew by 0.6% y / y. Earlier it was reported about the GDP reduction by 0.2%. The economy has not made a sustained breakthrough since 2009 when the recession ended.

The initial jobless claims number rose up by 12,000, taking into account seasonal variations that amounted 267 000. The US Labor Department said that economists expected growth to 270 000 jobless claims.

Trading recommendations

The rate dynamics is showing a negative development in the short term within the pair euro/dollar. Reaching the level of 1.0900 and its breakthrough will allow bears to decline towards 1.0800.


Pound

The pound has not changed significantly in the absence of the UK economic data. The sentiments, formed amid the Fed's commitment to the exchange rate policy tightening and then the US encouraging economic data, were considered as a proof that the USA rate hike conditions are improving that supported the US dollar. This signal became the first US GDP assessment for the second quarter. The main economic indicator for the second quarter grew by 2.3% which was worse than it was forecasted +2.6% q / q. However, it did not disappoint investors.

Trading recommendations

The pair GBP/USD may show a negative development in the short term. If the pair reaches the level of 1.5700 and breaks it through, it may reach the mark of 1.5900 soon.


Yen

The yen strengthened after the Japan inflation data output. According to the Japan Internal Affairs and Communications Ministry data, the core consumer price index excluding the fresh food prices was 0.1% in June while the energy prices decline over the past year continues to keep inflation away from the target level of 2% that the Japan Central Bank had set. It is worth noting that these data were higher than it was forecasted. (0.0%).

Trading recommendations

The dollar / yen may show the positive dynamics development in the short term. If the pair reaches the level of 124.00 and breaks it through, the way to 125.70 will be opened.


Gold

The US personal consumption expenditures rose up by 2.9% against 1.8% in the previous period while the personal savings rate fell to 4.8% from 5.2%, reflecting the households‘ propensity to spending. In addition, the employment data were positively assessed – initial jobless claims rose weaker than it was forecasted that amounted to 267 thousand when it was expected 270 thousand.

The gold remains under pressure amid the stock markets renewed growth and under the corresponding demand decline for safe assets.

Trading recommendations

In the short term we expect the precious metal negative dynamics development. If it reaches the mark of 1070.00 and breaks it through, the way towards 1050.00 will be opened.


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