Dax 30; Ftse 100; SP 500 - Market View

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Over the past month, European stock markets have reached a clear overperformance when compared to their US counterparts. In fact, during the month of March, the Eurostoxx50 appreciated 5.45%, the DAX 4.03%, while the S & P remained practically unchanged.

 

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The Fed’s minutes have pointed out that the policy of reinvestment of the assets acquired under the Quantitative Easing programs will continue until the reference interest rates are at a standard level, possibly close to the level of Long-term equilibrium. The publication of the oil reserves (3.30 pm) which may still be an important point of the session.

 

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Today’s session is expected to be somewhat defensive by investors who are preparing to monitor not only the Meeting between the US President and the Chinese counterpart, as well as the release of the minutes of the ECB Governing Council meeting at the meeting on 9 March, which should clarify further details on the next decisions of the Central Bank. It should be recalled that the rise in inflation, which reached 2.0% last month (the ECB target) triggered some expectation regarding the possibility of a faster withdrawal of stimulus from the Central Bank, as well as a change in the interest rates of reference. However, the ECB has not been confident of a sustained rise in prices, especially after data confirming that underlying inflation remained subdued. Investors will also take advantage of the speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, to look at more details on the monetary policy conducted by the ECB.

 

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Investors are reacting to a mixed employment report, statements by Fed members as well as the geopolitical environment, after the US launched a military offensive against Syria. The employment report showed that only 98 000 jobs were created during the month of March, despite the unemployment rate falling to the lowest of the last 10 years, from 4.70% to 4.50%.

 

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Politics begins to gain weight among the issues facing investors this Easter, as the first round of the French elections, scheduled for April 23, approaches. According to the latest polls the distance between Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Emmanuel Macron is narrowing.

 

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The US indexes closed at modest losses, managing to recover a sharp share of the devaluations seen earlier in the session. The main catalyst for the recovery was the intervention of President Trump who said he would be willing to replace the Dodd-Frank law with another law. Again, Donald Trump's words were somewhat vague, having failed to advance what the outlines of the new law would be. This news was enough for the financial sector to end up with minimal losses (-0.07%), not reflecting the sharp decline in yields observed in recent sessions.

 

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Geopolitical uncertainty (especially that related to the Korean Peninsula) continued to weigh on Asian markets. Although not the central theme of the current situation, it should be noted that Chinese exports increased by 20.30% in March, up from an estimated 15.50%. In turn, imports grew by 16.40% compared to forecasts of only 4.30%. Although these variations may still have been influenced by seasonal factors are important signs of strength that the Chinese economy is giving.

 

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Last Thursday investors' apprehension about the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the Korean peninsula has resulted in a greater aversion to risk, especially since only European equity markets will reopen on Tuesday.
In this context, it has become uncomfortable for many investors to assume excessive exposure to risky assets.
Thus, there was a sale of this type of asset, whereas the gold and the bonds of the states considered more secure were much sought after.

 

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People feel most comfortable in a congestion or a consolidation area, but this may be the most dangerous place to be. So it would be logical to conclude that trading outside the comfort zone shall be the safest and correct one.

 

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Asian stock markets ended in different directions in an environment influenced by geopolitical tensions. US Vice President Mike Pence's visit to Asia continues to be monitored by investors. In the Japanese market, banks recorded gains of over 2%, with Nomura leading the valuations.