Dax 30; Ftse 100; SP 500 - Market View

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Hedge funds have in recent weeks accumulated selling positions (supposedly equivalent to 162 million barrels) and have been one of the main causes of the fall in crude.

 

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Oil has prolonged its recent rise, even in the face of the release of energy reserves by the Department of Energy. Oil stocks increased by 118,000 barrels last week, compared to forecasts of a drop of 2.1 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 894 thousand barrels, compared to an expected decrease of about 288 thousand barrels. From a technical point of view, Brent is faced with a zone of resistance formed by the 48.33 / 49.15 levels.

 

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Yesterday, the DAX broke the support formed by the area of 12490/12500, which constituted a relevant short / medium technical barrier. It is important to emphasize that in the last 12 months, the stock markets have not suffered any corrections worth noting. The only falls that deserve mention were the ones that followed Brexit and the election of Donald Trump but lasted only a few hours. So if S & P, which we consider to be the leading index of world markets, start trading below 2419 then the likelihood of a larger correction than witnessed in recent months will begin to be significant.

 

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Asian markets closed with contained variance, despite the positive news coming from the Chinese economy. In June, the Caixin PMI index reached 50.4, above the estimated 49.4 and 50.0, which separates a cycle of expansion from a contraction cycle. Unlike the official PMI index prepared by the state authorities, the Caixin PMI index, calculated by a private institution, is compiled through surveys of small and medium private enterprises. These companies are more representative of the more dynamic areas of the Chinese economy than the large state-owned enterprises, which are at the heart of the official PMI index.

 

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Gold is at a critical level and is about to test the 200 week moving average, the last stand of the bulls, plus it is also aligned with the upward trend line.

 

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During the past month, car sales in the US fell 3%, being the 6th consecutive monthly decline. Sales of Fiat Chrysler fell 7.40%, Ford’s 5%, General Motors 4.70% and those of Korea’s Hyundai-Kia decreased 15%. On the contrary, sales of Nissan, Toyota and Honda showed slight increases in sales, although these were not enough to offset the falls in Detroit (which remains the heart of the American automotive industry). Volkswagen sales grew 11% year-on-year, when the level of sales was very low, although this increase fell short of estimates.

 

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Asian markets closed mostly with modest losses. The fall of oil and the rise of yields in most of the countries of this region. In Japan, 30-year yields peaked in the last 4 months (0.883%). However, the political situation on the Korean peninsula continues to generate some concern. Following the launch of a supposedly intercontinental missile by North Korea, the US and South Korea carried out several exercises that involved the launching of missiles, and the US ambassador to the UN admitted using force to stop North Korea’s nuclear program.

 

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Asian markets closed with contained losses, with the exception of the Shanghai stock exchange which ended in a slight rise. The fall of oil and the rise in yields were the themes of the session. In Japan, news circulated that the Central Bank intervened in the debt market, acquiring bonds, in order to halt the sharp rise in yields.

 

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Positive signs given by the US employment report boosted Asian indices. The US and US consumers are important customers of the Asian economies' exports, so the employment report has a direct and relevant impact on the respective exchanges.

 

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The debt market has been driven by a rise in state yields, caused by the words of the Fed and ECB members. Interestingly, at this stage of the market, European yields seem to be influencing American ones, not the other way round, as is usually the case.