Elliott Wave Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

NFP Impact on Price Action and Wave Count

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD wave count is very vulnerable to change with the lingering insecurity of any euro zone news.

1 hour

The EUR/USD has bounced at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A break of the resistance could see a potential start of wave C, although price action should be light before this weekend's Greek referendum. A break of the bottom (dark blue) would invalidate the ABC (green) formation.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD bounced at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level yesterday. A bearish break below the bottom could see price fall further down to the 61.8% or 78.6% Fibs. A bullish bounce could see price move up towards the resistance trend lines (red and orange).

1 hour

There is a tight zone marked by a support (green) and resistance (peach) trend line.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY most likely completed a WXY (blue) wave sequence. This could be part of a bigger correction indicated by the magenta W and X.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Impact of Greek Referendum on Price and Technical Analysis

EUR/USD

4 hour

The Greek no vote to the referendum on Sunday created bearish pressure on the EUR/USD but it did not invalidate the ABC (light purple) formation which is the blue support trend line. The green line is the invalidation level for the WXZ (green) count.

1 hour

The triangle pattern (orange and blue) is still valid and holding.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD continues to fall but the angle of the downtrend seems to be weakening when comparing the angle of resistance (red) trend line with the support one (green).

1 hour

Wave C (blue) could complete at one of the Fibonacci support levels of X versus W.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY has bounced off of the support level (green) once again and so far is unable to push below 122.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Currency Pairs Offer Clear Invalidation Levels

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD has been moving up and down in a relatively tight zone over the last weeks with clear support and resistance levels on both sides.

1 hour

Price is slowly being squeezed between the contacting triangle pattern as time progresses and space becomes tighter.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD has bounced at the 50 Fibonacci level but it requires a break above the immediate resistance trend line (red) to confirm the completion of wave X (blue). Otherwise there is a chance price could retrace lower to the 61,8 Fib level.

1 hour

A break above the confluence of intermediate and short resistance trend lines (red) could lead to the start of the waves Y. A break below support (green) could mean that the wave X (blue) will get extended to a lower spot.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY remains in a bigger consolidation as price diligently respects the support and resistance levels.




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[Admiral Markets]

Forex Dominated by USD and JPY Bulls

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD broke below the support trend line (dotted blue) and has extended the wave X (brown) correction to a lower point. Further downside is possible on lower time frames as long as price stays below the resistance levels (yellow and also orange).

1 hour

The EUR/USD could retest the major bottom (green line) if it continues to bounce off the resistance (yellow line). A break above the yellow line probably indicates a change of the wave count to a potential 1-2 (magenta).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD broke below the support trend line (dotted green) and made a bearish breakout.

1 hour

The bearish momentum suggests that price made a wave 3 and that a wave 5 (dark green) could follow. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level is a potential bounce spot.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY continues to make bearish price movements but has lack of space due to strong support (green levels).



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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD’s Major Resistance and GBP/USD’s Key Bottom

EUR/USD

4 hour

Whether wave X (brown) has been completed or not remains to be seen and depends on whether price will break above the long-term resistance line (orange/yellow) or bounce at it for more downside remaining in the down trend channel.

1 hour

The EUR/USD did break above the immediate resistance line (dotted yellow) but there was not much momentum during the break so the wave count has been labeled WXY (lavender).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD made yet another bearish breakout yesterday which took price down to the 78.6% Fibonacci level. This level has acted as a support and a bouncing spot as mentioned in yesterday's wave analysis.

1 hour

Whether the GBP/USD will make a big bounce up or continue to break down depends on whether price can break below the bottom or stay above it.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY broke through the support level (dotted green) and continues with its bearish pressure. This could complete wave W (green) but it depends if the upside can show sufficient momentum today.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

USD Uptrend Stalling and Building Bearish Zigzag

EUR/USD

4 hour

Wave X (brown) could be considered completed if price breaks above the long-term resistance lines (orange/yellow). Alternatively it could head to lower levels for a wave X (brown) if it breaks below the support trend line (light green).

1 hour

The EUR/USD could go up to complete a wave Y (lavender) if it manages break above the resistance trend lines (yellow and orange).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD has used the 78.6% Fibonacci level as a support level but a break out above the resistance is needed before the completion of wave X (blue) is confirmed.

1 hour

The trend lines are important as a bullish breakout (above magenta) could indicate a potential ABC (light green) whereas a bearish breakout (below green) would show the prospective of a downtrend continuation.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is making a bullish retracement but heavy layers of resistance are above it.





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[Admiral Markets]

Major Forex Pairs Advance with ABC Zigzag Formations

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD managed to break above the inner trend line (orange dotted) and could use the same broken line as a support for a bounce to the top of the wedge (trend lines on top and bottom).

1 hour

The EUR/USD showed strong momentum when breaking the resistance trend line (dotted orange), which could indicate the likelihood of a wave A (blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD showed strong bullish momentum once it broke above the resistance (dotted magenta). Due its strength the wave could be a potential wave 3 (orange), which means that the current consolidation could be a wave 4 (orange).

1 hour

The invalidation point is if price moves below the 61.8% Fibonacci before breaking the top.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY showed a bullish ABC zigzag (lavender) but stopped at the resistance trend line (orange). A break of the top of the waves 5 is needed in the next 2 weeks otherwise it is more likely that a bigger wave X (green) is taking place.




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Corrective Wave Patterns Indicate Potential Recovery Rally

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD made a deep retracement and remains in an overall corrective environment. The bottom is an important level (green line) as a break or bounce could have a decent indication ultimately whether the wave 4 (blue) has been completed (bearish break) or still needs to be completed (bullish bounce).

1 hour

The EUR/USD showed decent bearish momentum as it reached the 161.8% Fibonacci. Whether the wave count is an ABC or a 123 depends in part how it will react to the target. A bullish momentum most likely confirms the end of wave X (lavender) whereas a bear flag chart pattern could point to a wave 4 developing.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD has clear support (green) and resistance (red) lines marking the boundary for potential breakouts. The current wave count is eventually expecting a bullish breakout to complete wave Ys without breaking the bottom of X (lavender and blue).

1 hour

The GBP/USD indeed made a 5th wave (orange) followed by a deeper correction. Due to the 5 wave structure this retracement will most likely turn out to be a wave B (green). The turning spot for wave C (green) could be at any of the fib levels.

USD/JPY

4 hour

For the moment I am assuming that a bigger wave X (green) is taking place, unless price manages to make a strong third wave that breaks above the top (100% Fibonacci level). An ABC (lavender) could take place within wave X.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD Remains Choppy but GBP/USD Breaks Resistance Line

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is testing important trend lines (green and light green), which could become support for a rebound. A bearish breakout would invalidate the current wave X count (lavender).

1 hour

The EUR/USD showed bullish momentum but it slowed down when it reached the resistance trend line (orange). Both an ABC (blue) and a 123 wave count are possible and depends whether price can break above the red resistance. The invalidation level of the ABC count is the bottom of wave A.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD has made a significant rally yesterday and managed to break above the resistance trend line (dotted red), which confirms the development of an ABC (green) or alternatively a 123.

1 hour

As indicated in yesterday's wave analysis price turned at one of the Fibonacci levels of wave B (green), which was the 50 Fib in this case. The GBP/USD has approached the top of the bullish channel, which potentially serves as a bullish break or bearish bounce spot.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY needs to break above the resistance trend line (orange) before the bullish momentum has a chance of continuing.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD Retracement within Classical Uptrend Channel

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD continued with more downside momentum yesterday but price is running into major a weekly support level (green).

1 hour

The EUR/USD seems to be building a 2nd ABC zigzag (green) within wave X (lavender).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD has managed to stay above the broken resistance trend line (dotted red) and is now building a bullish trend channel (blue).

1 hour

The GBP/USD could retrace deeper within the 2nd wave (orange) but a break below the 100% level would invalidate the wave count.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY built a strong bullish momentum which could be the wave A (lavender) of a bigger ABC within wave X (green).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”