FOREX PRO WEEKLY, June 11-15, 2018

[PassPP]

Morning, guys,

So let's keep up with EUR... My view mostly stands in a row with Stag analysis above, and corresponds to what we've said in weekly report - while EUR stands above 1.1750 neckline, it keeps chances on immediate upward continuation.
On daily chart we do not have anything new at first glance, but I think we should pay attention to tight standing right below daily K-resistance. When market is consolidated right below strong resistance - this is the sign of possible challenge, as EUR is building an energy. This is very important issue that we need to keep an eye on:
View attachment 37979

On 4H chart it takes shape of clear pennant. Also if you plot MACDP here, you'll see signs of bullish dynamic pressure as well. This price action looks bullish. If upward continuation will happen - OP target already has been hit, thus, next destination point is XOP at 1.1960 area.
View attachment 37980

On hourly chart our B&B "Buy" pattern has been completed right on Monday and market has tested WPP, action that we've expected to get. As "222" Buy pattern has been formed - we see signs of upside thrust here, which is also good sign for bulls.
View attachment 37981

Right now, while EUR stands above 1.1750 - it is possible to buy against it. Breakout of 1.1750 will mean deep retracement, at least 5/8, or even action back to lows...
But currently, it seems that some advantage stands on bull side.

Thank you Sive ,some amazing days ahead ! i guess we need some popcorn and some extra dough on the margin A/C.

 

[Sive Morten]

Greetings everybody,

We have a bit tricky situation on EUR right now, because as we've said previously many times - deep retracement sooner or later but should happen, as EUR has strong bearish momentum that was forming within few months.
At the same time, yesterday we've discussed possible upside continuation as EUR holds above 1.1750 area. But no attempt of breakout has been made. First is PPI data was not bad, second, it seems that investors are taking defensive position and do not want to hurry at the eve of Fed meeting:

But, whatever we could suggest, the core of our analysis stands the same - standing above 1.1750 keeps chances on upward continuation, while drop below it will mean starting of deeper retracement that we've talked about.
On 4H chart price stands at crucial area - border between bullish and bearish scenario. I call these points as "culmination" ones. This point doesn't increase your chances to success but it provides best risk/reward ratio for your trade.

On houry chart EUR is forming "222" Buy, so who knows may be upside action will be re-established, still.
Anyway here is the point where you need to make choice - either on agressive tactics or conservative. Agressive tactics suggests taking position right at "culmination" point and based on "222" Buy here, while conservative one suggests waiting action above OP first, and taking position on some minor retracement second.
The same is true for bearish action, but in opposite direction.

Daily traders should do nothing. it is too early to go short as we're waiting for 1.20 area where reversal theoretically is possible. For long position we need to get deep retracement that we're talking about. Setup above is mostly for intraday traders.

 

[Stag]

Morning guys, the expected 1.1810 was reached and prices turned lower from there. But mostly sideways trade since 1.1839. There is limited downside potential available under the immediate bullish outlook and the 78.6 % Fibonacci retracement of wave "a" essentailly achieved. Since prices are above 1.1775 again, I favor that a corrective low is in place at 1.1741 and the Euro will head towards 1.185x from this area. Taking out the upper boundary of the red corrective price channel will offer strong evidence a three-wave pullback is in place and the trend is going to turn up for a final push in a c-wave rally topping somewhere in the green target zone. A major reversal may start from there.

If prices continue lower and to below 1.1727 we'll have to consider the idea either wave 4 or wave circle a ended already at 1.1839 and prices keep the immediate trend pointed toward lower levels as discussed yesterday.

View attachment 37977

Morning guys, not much news here, my WP based view is basically unchanged and is in sync with Sive's analysis.

Prices poked above the red channel but there was no follow-through and the attempt has failed. Still mostly sideways trade since 1.1839, maybe a triangle is under development here or a more complex structure - a structure well balanced for both directions.

As long as prices are above 1.1727 prices may turn up anytime for a final push in a c-wave rally topping somewhere in the green target zone. And again, if prices continue to below 1.1727 we'll have to consider the idea either wave 4 or wave circle a ended already at 1.1839 and prices keep the immediate trend pointed toward 1.168 - 1.163 area or even lower levels as discussed earlier.

 

[Robban68]

Two big option expiration today as well
EUR/USD 1.1700 EUR 1.4bn, 1.1705 EUR 1.2bn

Lets see if it open the gate after 16:00 CET

 

[PassPP]

Two big option expiration today as well
EUR/USD 1.1700 EUR 1.4bn, 1.1705 EUR 1.2bn

Lets see if it open the gate after 16:00 CET

Put or call

 

[Robban68]

Put or call

My guess is the strike price for puts and calls are just below and above. anywhere between, the option writers make all the money. I use this big option expirations more like a magnet, a kind of attraction point. The Option writer have 2,6bn reason to let the price not to be to far away from 1.1700 / 1.1705 at 16:00 CET.
Tomorrow there are some huge as well

• 1.1600 EUR 1.4bn
• 1.1700 2.7bn

 

[PassPP]

You guys give any chance that based on fundamentals we first go down (due to FED) and then we go up (due to ECB)?just a weird idea .

 

[Stag]

You guys give any chance that based on fundamentals we first go down (due to FED) and then we go up (due to ECB)?just a weird idea .

Hi PassPP, for a price movement and/or trade that lasts 1 to 5 minutes? Fundamentals do not matter on short-term price movements. What matters I think is this: high-impact data releases, press conferences following monetary policy decisions are well timed / prepared opportunities for market makers to realize their profits, causing random price movements in a range (do not forget: they do see the real market, we do not).

Beyond that, if you ask me, I can tell you that the method I use is built on the idea that the market is governed by patterns of investor psychology and it doesn't change based on the news, it changes for endogenous reasons called social mood. Consequently, financial markets are a product of human psychology and the waves of optimism and pessimism drive them on the longer run. Short term price movements occuring during high impact releases usually are in sync with patterns we see on the higher timeframes but tends to be random at high impact data releases.

 

[Lolly Tripathy]

Hi PassPP, for a price movement and/or trade that lasts 1 to 5 minutes? Fundamentals do not matter on short-term price movements. What matters I think is this: high-impact data releases, press conferences following monetary policy decisions are well timed / prepared opportunities for market makers to realize their profits, causing random price movements in a range (do not forget: they do see the real market, we do not).

Beyond that, if you ask me, I can tell you that the method I use is built on the idea that the market is governed by patterns of investor psychology and it doesn't change based on the news, it changes for endogenous reasons called social mood. Consequently, financial markets are a product of human psychology and the waves of optimism and pessimism drive them on the longer run. Short term price movements occuring during high impact releases usually are in sync with patterns we see on the higher timeframes but tends to be random at high impact data releases.

Great info
Thanks

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

So, today's action more corresponds to our trading plan. Despite drop yesterday in the morning, EUR was able to hold about major 1.1750 support and still keeps chances on upside continuation. Of course, this has happened mostly due Fed comments, and today again - it will mostly depend on ECB statement, M. Draghi still could support this rally.

As a result of Fed, EUR has broken up triangle border, 4H trend has turned bullish. This upside leg should be treated as extension, because retracement after OP has been done already. It means that following market mechanics logic - EUR should proceed to next XOP target around 1.1960. Second - any sign of weakness on extension leg will be negative sign. If EUR will not be able to proceed higher, return back into triangle, or, back to 1.1750 - don't be long. It could mean that downside breakout and deeper daily retracement is coming. That's why all eyes on ECB - as Fed has supported EUR, why ECB can't do the same )

If you're watching for taking long position - 1.1775 area and re-testing of triangle line could be suitable area. Others, who has taken long position in our "culmination" point yesterday - could keep it, probably.