FOREX PRO WEEKLY, June 11-15, 2018

[Stag]

Morning guys, not much news here, my WP based view is basically unchanged and is in sync with Sive's analysis.

Prices poked above the red channel but there was no follow-through and the attempt has failed. Still mostly sideways trade since 1.1839, maybe a triangle is under development here or a more complex structure - a structure well balanced for both directions.

As long as prices are above 1.1727 prices may turn up anytime for a final push in a c-wave rally topping somewhere in the green target zone. And again, if prices continue to below 1.1727 we'll have to consider the idea either wave 4 or wave circle a ended already at 1.1839 and prices keep the immediate trend pointed toward 1.168 - 1.163 area or even lower levels as discussed earlier.

Morning gyus, in terms of WP prices formed an "abc" instead of a triangle where the c leg turned to be an ending diagonal. And as regular readers already know, EDs are terminating patterns, frequently showing up in the wave “C” position of "ABC" corrections. Once an ending diagonal terminates, a sharp and swift reversal starts that goes below to the level where it began and typically much further. And chances are that's what we see happening again.

Yesterday's price action fits well into the overall picture we discussed earlier. I expect minor pullback from nearby levels followed by a final trust up to the green area where either wave 4 or wave a of 4 may build a top. My previous comments are still valid.

 

[Stag]

Great info
Thanks

Dear Lolly, my dear friend, I'm glad to hear that.

 

[Stag]

...Once an ending diagonal terminates, a sharp and swift reversal starts that goes below to the level where it began...

Edit: "...that goes above..." in this case. Trading an ending diagonal was discussed here.

 

[PassPP]

Seems Mario prefers Submarines over the Rockets

 

[FreddyFX]

Refusing to give back made profits and staying on the sideline till next week. I hate roller coasters, lol !!!

 

[Robban68]

Could be worth to bet some on the potential DRPO buy on 1 Hour Time frame. Since we also have been below 1.1554 bears needs to close the day below (london close), or it will be treated as a rejection

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning everybody,

So, guys, it seems that Mr. Draghi falls short of our expectations and our trust. Miracle has not happened. Fed has started well but Draghi has bungled the job totally. Still, although plunge was really miserable, could we say that it was unexpected. EUR indeed was standing pretty nice in recent 3-4 sessions and it has given us reasons to suggest possible upside action while it stands above 1.1750 lows. But at the same time, ECB policy totally matches to our view in weekly report and for daily traders we said - dont' be long, as deep retracement will come sooner rather than later...
Besides, bullish trade from 1.1750 was not really bad as EUR has shown upside triangle breakout... but was not able to continue this action. This moment once again teaches us to manage profitable position and move stops to b/e asap.

Ok, all this stuff is a history right now. What's next? Now we need new trading plan and major concern is how deep this drop will follow and whether EUR still will show upside action to 1.20?

To answer on first question we need to take a look at weekly chart and see that major Fib levels stand around 1.1440-1.1480 area, including MPS1. EUR is not at OS any more, so road is open to this levels. It seems that they could be reached with high probability.

Second question can't be resolved right now, as we need to see reaction on major 50% Fib support of 1.1440 area. There we will have more information.

Today guys, I do not see much to do... may be some DRPO or B&B on hourly chart will be formed, but this is short-term intraday setup:

 

[Stag]

...Yesterday's price action fits well into the overall picture we discussed earlier. I expect minor pullback from nearby levels followed by a final trust up to the green area where either wave 4 or wave a of 4 may build a top. My previous comments are still valid.

Finally we reached our moment of truth: the green target zone was perfect, we had the expected final thrust topping in the middle of the zone (but even without a minor pullback) and wave 4 registereed its high at 1.1851.

Prices fell far below my red target zone and need to complete a five-wave pattern off the 1.1851 high to suggest red wave 5 is in place. Red wave 5 will have travelled the same distance as wave 1 at 1.1450, a common target for the fifth within an impulse pattern when the third wave is extended.

Currently printing above 1.1575 will offer an early indication that the impulsive decline has registered its low and the early stages of wave 2 recovery is under way. This scenario suggests the Euro will stage a rally attempt starting from current levels. In a wave 2 rally it would end after three waves and possibly below 1.175.

Bigger picture

Intraday

Guys, as I wrote earlier, Sive's service provided here at FPA is simply the best you can not find elsewhere. I've shared some useful thoughts and techniques on the Wave Principle, complementing Sive's analysis with a hope of a more confident decision-making, but I still find that this kind of contribution is either too deep, or hard to understand or simply unnecessary here. So I will post in the future if someone asks.

All the best guys!

 

[Vokin]

Finally we reached our moment of truth: the green target zone was perfect, we had the expected final thrust topping in the middle of the zone (but even without a minor pullback) and wave 4 registereed its high at 1.1851.

Prices fell far below my red target zone and need to complete a five-wave pattern off the 1.1851 high to suggest red wave 5 is in place. Red wave 5 will have travelled the same distance as wave 1 at 1.1450, a common target for the fifth within an impulse pattern when the third wave is extended.

Currently printing above 1.1575 will offer an early indication that the impulsive decline has registered its low and the early stages of wave 2 recovery is under way. This scenario suggests the Euro will stage a rally attempt starting from current levels. In a wave 2 rally it would end after three waves and possibly below 1.175.

Bigger picture

View attachment 38056
Intraday

View attachment 38057

Guys, as I wrote earlier, Sive's service provided here at FPA is simply the best you can not find elsewhere. I've shared some useful thoughts and techniques on the Wave Principle, complementing Sive's analysis with a hope of a more confident decision-making, but I still find that this kind of contribution is either too deep, or hard to understand or simply unnecessary here. So I will post in the future if someone asks.

All the best guys!

BIG TRUE. But your pictures are good too.

 

[Robban68]

Finally we reached our moment of truth: the green target zone was perfect, we had the expected final thrust topping in the middle of the zone (but even without a minor pullback) and wave 4 registereed its high at 1.1851.

Prices fell far below my red target zone and need to complete a five-wave pattern off the 1.1851 high to suggest red wave 5 is in place. Red wave 5 will have travelled the same distance as wave 1 at 1.1450, a common target for the fifth within an impulse pattern when the third wave is extended.

Currently printing above 1.1575 will offer an early indication that the impulsive decline has registered its low and the early stages of wave 2 recovery is under way. This scenario suggests the Euro will stage a rally attempt starting from current levels. In a wave 2 rally it would end after three waves and possibly below 1.175.

Bigger picture

View attachment 38056
Intraday

View attachment 38057

Guys, as I wrote earlier, Sive's service provided here at FPA is simply the best you can not find elsewhere. I've shared some useful thoughts and techniques on the Wave Principle, complementing Sive's analysis with a hope of a more confident decision-making, but I still find that this kind of contribution is either too deep, or hard to understand or simply unnecessary here. So I will post in the future if someone asks.

All the best guys!

Thank you for sharing,
If we assume 1.193x is a target, (1.16 pullback was needed before). Will this road to 1.193 fit into your wave chart?