I live in California and so I don't want to trade London Open. It's very late at night. I usually have only two trades I take each day. It's the New York continuation at about 5am my time, and the London Close. I will trade a NY reversal but I need to be pretty sure of where the market is headed for the week to do it. I'll post examples of what I look for soon but I did a picture perfect London Close trade last week for 19 pips.
I'm favoring shorts on EURGBP this week. We're trending down in this channel. We had a thrust up to capture liquidity, then a strong thrust back down. The next area of liquidity would be 0.8535 then 0.8528 and I think we're going to hit this. If we hit it earlier in the week, I'd consider a buy back in to the range. If it were early week movement down there, it would be to catch the bears. If it accumulates or shows sideways PA, I'd close the long position. On the upside we have a strong K area around the WPP 0.8563-67. I'd like to be a seller here. If we're headed up early this week, I'd likely consider this the high of the week. This pair often trends on the daily but wanders a lot on the 4h. I'll be nimble and look for 20-40 pips and get out. I think we're headed for 0.8467 bottom but I don' think it'll hit that this week. Ideally, this pair will move up high like 0.8580-90, would make for a good safe sell back into the range and form a head and shoulders pattern, the target of which would be 0.8455, so in good agreement with the bearish stop run.
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EURUSD I'm favoring longs. I'd like to see the price come down early week to 1.820-30 area to form the head and shoulders pattern, then long to 1.1910 which is the 100% of the last hourly swing. If we area early week to 1.9000, I'll consider sells as I 'd think this were more of a stop run, then down to 1.820-30 to create long liquidity and then back up to the target. Last Week Fed Meeting has it's minutes leaked and the response was a flight out of the NYSE and into the USD. There's a lot of buzz about hyperinflation, over leveraged banks and the need for a correction. This should add strength to the USD. I'm going to be cautious with this pair because of the uncertainty with the USD and US economy right now. I may either stay out or only do London Close trades.
The AUD futures is in a seasonal buy until 7/22, this will put down pressure on the AUD, or upward pressure on base AUD pairs like the EURAUD, JPY will be a futures buy starting about 7/15.
EURAUD had a big stop run to shake off the longs last week. It's at 1.5850 at week open, the WPP is 1.5815, bullish order block and 50% of the big candle is 1.5808 and of course the big figure is 1.5800 giving us strong support.
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