Daily Technical Analysis by FxGrow

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 24th Jan, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Sterling Depresses Ahead of Article 50 Release

GBP/USD levels are awaiting the final decision for UK's court ruling for the release of article 50 with final stages for eternal break from the EU. But the question is, will UK take soft or hard Brexit road ? A hard Brexit arrangement would likely see the UK give up full access to the single market and full access of the customs union along with the EU. On the other hand, soft Brexit means UK would no longer be a member of the EU and would not have a seat on the European Council. It would lose its MEPs and its European Commissioner. But, it would keep unfettered access to the European single market.

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Resistance levels : R1 1.2580, R2 1.2627, R3 1.2660

Support levels : S1 1.2430, S2 1.2384, S3 1.2315

Remark : Although signs are in favor for UK's final break from EU, but there are no clear signs on the method or which model they will adapt.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.http://fxgrow.com/analysis-education/fxgrow-academia/fxgrow-blog

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 25th Jan, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Crude Oil Rallies Over Hints of Major Participation on Cut Reductions

OPEC efforts to curb oil gluts has been fruitful as Iraq's oil minister Al-Luaibi assured on Monday that most oil majors working on its territory were participating in oil output reductions agreed as part of the deal between OPEC and non-OPEC producers to help to balance the market.

Iraqi oil minister Jabar al-Luaibi said pledged to deliver Iraq's quota of agreed oil reduction, the country had cut output from its "national fields" and those of international oil companies (IOCs) working in Iraq were also participating.

Al-Luaibi quoted "We are in collaboration with IOCs to cut from their part," he told Reuters on the sidelines of a conference. "We are in agreement with most IOCs, not all of them, that they will be in line with us. This is going well."

He also added " "It is heading toward $60 now. We hope it will get to the level of $60 and $60-$65 will be reachable." Reuters.

According to Bloomberg, OPEC are doing pretty well although it's not 100% yet, but by end of Feb, 100% compliance will be achieved. right now, OPEC managed to cut 1.5M bpd and the target is to reach 1.8M bpd. Saudi Arabia are pumping less than 10M bpd. Russia will also decrease up to 300,000 bpd by end of April or May.

Also, OPEC is to set a committee which will monitor exports, secondary sources, count tankers, talk to sources, and develop their own mechanism to look into estimates on how countries are producing and make sure they are all in accord.

On the other hand, US will publish today Crude Oil Inventories at 3:30 PM GMT, with efforts to slow bullish oil pace. USA are on opposite end means with OPEC, with consecutive additional drilling and forecasts are at 1.5M barrel compared to 2.3M in previous sessions.

Resistance levels : R1 53.33, R2 54.19, R3 55.28

Support levels : S1 52.52, S2 51.71, S3 50.92

Remark : Look forward for US inventories today at 3:30 PM GMT, also keep posted on OPEC's news and meeting, these are the two main fundamentals for crude oil levels for the coming days. As for technical, long positions below S1 will increase additional selloffs and wash towards S2&S3 levels. On the other hand a close above R1 level indicates that oil trend has shifted bullish and stalling above R2 will fuel bullish waves towards R3.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.http://fxgrow.com/analysis-education/fxgrow-academia/fxgrow-blog

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 26th Jan, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Gold Volatility Pledged On US Data

XAUUSD witnessed a significant volatility through the week but currently gold prices are stable at 1196.33 intraday, and it's expected to continue ahead of upcoming US data. Gold took advantage of collapsing US index first on Tuesday at 99.89, extending bearish momentum today hitting rock bottom 9-Dec-fresh-lows at 99.77. As a result, the yellow metal was on roller coaster between 1220.10 high on Tuesday, and 1191.17 low yesterday. Markets are expecting gold prices to stabilize today, but volatility will kick in ahead and after the release of major economic US data today and tomorrow, both at 1:30 PM GMT.

1- Today, US unemployment claims to be released at 1:30 PM GMT.

2- Tomorrow, The US Advance GDP release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact. Second US Core Durable Goods. Both data at released at 1:30 PM GMT.

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Key levels to watch : Daily Pp 1198.33

Resistance levels : R1 1203.37, R2 1209.71, R3 1218.16, R4 1232.94

Support levels : S1 1194.12, S2 1186.92, S3 1179.83, S3 1170.97

Remark : Look forward for US data release today and tomorrow as they affect XAUUSD levels significantly with Advanced GDP in focus. Below S2 level the cable to be considered Bearish. Long positions above R1 level comes in favor of additional bullish waves attack towards above resistance levels. A close below S2 level will increase further selloffs and wash towards S3&S4 levels. Be careful from testing on both support and resistance levels as a setback.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.http://fxgrow.com/analysis-education/fxgrow-academia/fxgrow-blog

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 26th Jan, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Sterling Sharpens Ahead of Local GDP

GBP/USD is on the right path of recovery and Brexit experience seems to be behind back. On Tuesday, final steps were put in motion for the release of article 50 and the divorce between the UK and EU has finally come to reality without specification on which trading system UK will adapt with EU and globally. Also, soft or hard Brexit to be decided by PM May and UK parliment. As a result, the pair was bullish since Tuesday, rallying from 1.2418 low, dilating further bull waves and clocked a 15-Jan-fresh-highs today at 1.2625. The pair is to go further test as UK prelim GDP today at 9:30 AM GMT, which will either confirm further up-attacks or make a minor-down-trend-correction depending on the data.

Trend : Bullish

Key levels to watch : Daily Pp 1.2588

Resistance levels : R1 1.2674, R2 1.2741, R3 1.2801

Support levels : S1 1.2547, S2 1.2481, S3 1.2393

Remark : Look forward for UK local GDP at 9:30 AM GMT plus US data today and tomorrow both at 1:30 PM GMT with US advanced GDP in focus.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.http://fxgrow.com/analysis-education/fxgrow-academia/fxgrow-blog

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 27th Jan, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

USD/JPY Surges as USD Strengthen, US GDP in Sight

US Dollar extended the strong tone for second day facing Japanese Yen taking advantage of strong US stocks performance which lifted the blue chip (Dow) for a new historical record 20134 high. Yesterday, US index sank to 99.77 9-Dec-fresh-lows then shifted the course, clocking a at 100.71 (+ $0.94 to previous losses), currently US index trading 100.68 intraday. Comments by Japanese PM Abe earlier this morning "Can't say we've emerged from deflation just yet " supported USD/JPY bullish forces. Reuters.

Today, USD/JPY awaits two major economic events, first Core Durable Goods, Second with more focus Advanced GDP, both set for a release at 1:30 PM GMT. US dollar will either continue bullying its rivals, or give a breather depending on the data outcome.

Trend : Bullish

Key levels to watch : Daily Pp 114.14

Resistance levels : R1 115.44, R2 116.46, R3 117.60

Support levels : S1 114.37, S2 113.56, S3 112.67

Remark : look forward for US data today which will determine the cable trend for the coming days. A close below S3 is needed to the pair to shift to bearish trend. However, a penetration for R1 will enhance further attacks towards R2 level.

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 27th Jan, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

USD/JPY Surges as USD Strengthen, US GDP in Sight

US Dollar extended the strong tone for second day facing Japanese Yen taking advantage of strong US stocks performance which lifted the blue chip (Dow) for a new historical record 20134 high. Yesterday, US index sank to 99.77 9-Dec-fresh-lows then shifted the course, clocking a at 100.71 (+ $0.94 to previous losses), currently US index trading 100.68 intraday. Comments by Japanese PM Abe earlier this morning "Can't say we've emerged from deflation just yet " supported USD/JPY bullish forces. Reuters.

Today, USD/JPY awaits two major economic events, first Core Durable Goods, Second with more focus Advanced GDP, both set for a release at 1:30 PM GMT. US dollar will either continue bullying its rivals, or give a breather depending on the data outcome.

Trend : Bullish

Key levels to watch : Daily Pp 114.14

Resistance levels : R1 115.44, R2 116.46, R3 117.60

Support levels : S1 114.37, S2 113.56, S3 112.67

Remark : look forward for US data today which will determine the cable trend for the coming days. A close below S3 is needed to the pair to shift to bearish trend. However, a penetration for R1 will enhance further attacks towards R2 level.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.http://fxgrow.com/analysis-education/fxgrow-academia/fxgrow-blog

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 03rd Feb, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Gold Surges On US Dollar Uncertainties, NFP Eyed

Gold has proven yet again to be a sacred haven and the ultimate substitute when economies seems to be unstable. Between Trump's promises of better US economy and steps of such achievement, US index is wallowing and the shiny metal is taking the advantage being on strong demand. Trump's plan includes lower taxation, lighter regulations, full employment, and faster US economy growth. But Trump's recent pronouncements, political attacks, and threatening previous achieved agreements is creating an unstable environment for US economy, and along with it, global fear of what may come. Add to that, petition singed by UK citizens unwelcoming Trump's visit added a negative weight on the US president being accepted globally. Trump may achieve his goals, but the pathway is spiky.

As a result, US index bottomed yesterday at 99.19 15-Nov-fresh-lows after a significant rally at 2017 beginning scoring 103.81 highs. Dow Jones on the other hand, rolled 356 point on Tuesday after ceiling 20138 last week due to the above mentioned fundamentals. XAUUSD was the winner during this week after a significant rally on Monday from 1188.31 low, anchored yesterday at 1225.35 with a new record for 2017.

The question that's evolving now is, how far will US index and gold respond to US economical data today being dragged behind Trump's policies ?

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Resistance levels : R1 1220, R2 1229.28, R3 1237.03, R4 1245.44

Support levels : S1 1208.61 , S2 1199.50, S3 1188.14, S4 1174.46

Remark : Gold is bullish due to weak US dollar performance and US economical instability but look forward for US data today at 1:30 PM GMT with NFP in focus as it has a great effect on US Dollar levels. A close above R2 level projects further attacks towards R3&r4 levels. A close under S2 is needed to reverse gold bullish momentum and a penetration for S2 level will increase further selloffs and wash to S3&S4 levels. Be careful from setbacks and retreats on support and resistance levels as a first test.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.http://fxgrow.com/analysis-education/fxgrow-academia/fxgrow-blog

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 06th Feb, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Australian Dollar Slips on Disappointing Local Data, Awaiting RBA Move

Aussie opened trading session with disappointing local data with retails sales -0.1% compared 0.1% on previous sessions. AUD/USD had the chance to continue withstrong tone facing collapsing US dollar, as US index sank last week to 15-Nov-2017-fresh-lows at 99.23. AUD/USD, last Thursday, clocked a high 0.7696 11-Nov-2017 fresh highs, but faded away from 0.77 handle after negative retail sales.

Eyes now are focused on RBA move, awaiting interest rates decision whether to keep it at current 1.5% or change it with a hike at less expectations. Although forecasts are to leave interest rates at current 1.5% due to strong Australian and growing economy, but the cable could witness some volatility due to the event itself. Also, the interest rate decision will be followed by RBA rate statement or speech and hints of strong economy and positive growing might add some boosters for the AUD level.

Trend : Bullish sideways

Key levels to watch : Daily Pp 0.7677

Resistance levels : R1 0.7691, R2 0.7732, R3 0.7853

Support levels : S1 0.7586, S2 0.7510, S3 0.7450

Remark : Look forward for RBA interest rate statement tomorrow scheduled at 3:30 AM GMT. AUD/USD volatility are expected shortly before the decision and especially during the RBA statement or press release as the content will have a major impact on the pair levels.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.http://fxgrow.com/analysis-education/fxgrow-academia/fxgrow-blog

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 07th Feb, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Kiwi Strengthen On Positive Inflation REPORT, RBNZ Interest Rates Eyed
NZD/USD extended the bullish momentum on Asian trading session lifted by positive inflation expectations at 1.9% compared with 1.7% on previous sessions. Kiwi found comfort last week with collapsing USD at 99.23 low and even though US index showed some minor recovery today clocking a high 100.23, NZD is ignoring USD and currently flying solo. NZD/USD awaits today GDT price index today at 1:30 PM GMT, but the main focus is shifted till tomorrow's RBNZ interest rates decision at 8 PM GMT, followed by a press conference on behalf of RBNZ at 9:00 PM GMT.

RBNZ current interest rates are 1.75% and forecasts are to leave it unchanged but due to 1.9% inflation expectations published today, the odds of a rate hike are increasing.

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Key levels to watch : Daily Pp 0.7311

Resistance Levels : R1 0.7389, R2 0.7482, R3 0.7606

Support levels : S1 0.7301, S2 0.7211, S3 0.7130

Remark : Look forward for today's GDT index which could shake the pair level but expectations of higher volatility will take place shortly before and after RBNZ interest rates decision. Also, Gov Wheeler speech on Thursday early sessions.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 07th Feb, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

USD/CAD Extend Gains ahead of US and Canadian trade balance

US dollar opened trading sessions with a strong tone facing it's south Canadian neighbor and after a long period of comatose, US Dollar has finally shown sings of recovery as the index peeked to 100.69 high today, currently trading at 100.63. Last week USD/CAD bears were supported by positive Canadian GDP at 0.4% compared to -0.2% and weaker US dollar performance. USD/CAD bulls were also fueled today by slipping oil prices which added further losses for the loonie.

Eyes are shifted today on the race between two neighbors as US and Canada will release their trade balance, both at the same time 1:30 PM GMT.

Trend: Sideways

Resistance levels : R1 1.3257, R2 1.3392, R3 1.3534

Support levels : S1 1.3112, S2 1.3004, S3 1.2895

Remark : Look forward today for US and Canadian trade balance released at the same time 1:30 PM GMT in addition to Canadian unemployment rate on Friday at 1:30 PM GMT.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.http://fxgrow.com/analysis-educatio...cal-analysis-fxgrow-free-forex-analysis-tools

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 08th Feb, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Oil Price Slips on Hints of Imposing Crude Imports Taxes

The war continues between the two parties, USA and OPEC. Taking into consideration USA is the largest economy in the world, with heavy dependence on Crude oil for industrial and civil sectors, it is of USA's best interest to keep lower prices.

On the other hand we have OPEC, being dependent on oil production as the main source for economy with recent efforts to curb oil production and additional glut in the market with hopes of higher traded oil levels.

OPEC recent meeting in Vienna was fruitful and resulted in an epic so long waited deal to cut 1.8M bpd. Compliance so far was estimated at 85% and 100% is expected to kick by beginning of June 2017 which lifted oil levels from $36 at 2016 opening, extended additional gains at Jan 2017, peeking above $55 and a steady increase was expected through 2017 especially beginning of June.

Yesterday, oil prices took a dip and extended bearish momentum resulted in -3.77% loss (-$2.1) on expectations that Mr. Trump is due to impose a controversial import tax for crude oil products. Now the WTI/Brent trade is back in fashion on expectations that the spread will again become highly changeable due to the possibility that under President Donald Trump the United States will slap an effective 20 percent tax on imports, including oil according to Reuters. Analysts mentioned that such move would almost certainly break World Trade Organization rules.

Uncertainty over Trump's tax policy poses issues for the oil industry itself. Analysts at Goldman Sachs - one of the most active banks in physical commodity trading quoted ""We recommend shifting hedges to Brent as the basis risk is smaller than the policy risks ... In turn, consumers and refiners should consider hedging through WTI instead of Brent until the policy uncertainty is lifted," the bank said.

Also added, "Should the (tax) be implemented, we recommend that US producers aggressively take advantage of the 25-percent relative appreciation of WTI prices."

Analysts assigned only a 20 percent probability to the tax being implemented and 24 reports on futures prices implied only a 9 percent chance. Also, expectations of a surge in outright WTI prices would be short lived, as the oil price rallies would increase additional efforts for US producers to increase their output. With the chance that OPEC members would resume production, chances of oil surplus in 2018 is now into consideration.

A senior executive at a major trading house added that shale producers have been conspicuous by their absence from the hedging market in the past few weeks, precisely because of their reservations over the border tax. "Basically shale firms don't know what to do. You would look stupid if you hedge and the WTI price rally afterwards," he said.

In Conclusion, Trump is controversial and recent speeches and announcements have proven so. Add to that, low expectations of imposing tax law on crude oil imports with possibility of creating a problem for World Trade Organization rules, Trump's plan falls into narrow skepticism. OPEC deal has more solid grounds and it's already being implemented with positive outcomes. Hence, OPEC plan or deal has a heavier impact on the market and expectations of crude oil levels to reverse to bullish momentum are more likely but look forward for Trump's unpredictable moves.

Remark : Look forward for US crude oil inventories today scheduled today at 3:30 PM GMT which will shake oil levels on technical levels .


For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.http://fxgrow.com/analysis-education/fxgrow-academia/fxgrow-blog

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.