Dax 30; Ftse 100; SP 500 - Market View

[psaTrading]

Tomorrow begins a period that is seasonally negative for US equities. Until April 15th, the Americans will have to pay their IRS and many resort to the sale of shares and redemption of investment funds to finance this charge. Over the past 20 years, from the beginning of the month until that day, US markets were only able to achieve a positive return in only 30% of the time. This is only an empirical data, so it does not mean that US indexes will repeat this pattern this year. The important thing to remember is that in the next two weeks we shall able to attend to some selling pressure.

 

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If wages continue to increase, its growth will lead many Americans to increase consumption and thus trigger a general increase in prices of goods. T

 

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Perhaps the most important fact of this employment report was the strong increase in wages, which in March grew 0.30% compared to February.

 

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The currency pair Euro/Dollar gains greater relevance when framed in the fact that the orders to German industry have experienced a bending of 1.20% in February compared to the increase expected of 0.30%. The German export sector has been penalized by the weakness of many overseas markets, especially the Chinese.

 

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According to PMI, produced by HSBC, the manufacturing activity improved in March from 51.2 to 52.2. Many of the stimulus measures adopted by the Chinese authorities last year may be now starting to bear fruit.

 

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The weakness of the dollar has led to an appreciation of Asian currencies, which removes some competitiveness to Asian companies, especially the Japanese. The Yen has been one of the currencies that most have appreciated against the dollar and Japanese exports are one of the most exposed to the US economy.

 

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Today will start in Cernobbio (Italy), the Ambrosetti Forum, an annual event that brings together diverse personalities of the financial and business world, as the ECB Yves Mersch member, the Italian Minister of Finance Carlo Padoan, the CEO of Unicredit, among others. This type of event is always a chance to probe the feelings and perspectives of some of the main global economic actors.

 

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Oil recorded significant gains explained by data indicating that production in the US is falling at an increasing rate and that in April the Russian production could be temporarily reduced. To this adds the cuts in Nigeria because of explosion that hit a pipeline in March and the approaching meeting of oil producers (17) in order to freeze the production.

 

[psaTrading]

I looks like April is the Feast of Trumpets month for the pair Eur/Usd.

 

[psaTrading]

Retail sales and the Fed’s Beige Book will help investors and economists to reply to two interconnected issues. The first is the timing of the new rise in interest rates. The second is to know what was the pace of US economic growth during the 1st quarter. Despite the good data for March, many economists have reduced their estimates for this period.