Dax 30; Ftse 100; SP 500 - Market View

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Mario Draghi’s intervention in Lindau (Germany) will be closely monitored and may lead to some volatility in the markets.

 

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In a speech delivered yesterday in Lindau, Germany, Mario Draghi gave no indication of the next steps in terms of monetary policy, only emphasizing that the recent financial crisis forced economists to readjust the existing economic models.

 

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The monetary policy outlook on both sides of the Atlantic is now focused on the gradual removal of the ECB’s current expansionary measures and on the normalization of the balance sheet by the FED, after the Central Bank has begun the cycle of rising interest rates.

 

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The US market ended higher on Friday. The day was marked by the Conference of Central Banks in Jackson Hole, but more specifically by the interventions of the Presidents of the FED, Janet Yellen, and the ECB, Mario Draghi. These speeches were long awaited, but neither offered any significant signal on the conduct of their respective monetary policies. Janet Yellen focused her speech on banking regulation and improvements in the US economy, while Mario Draghi focused more on his concern about protectionism.

 

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North Korea's firing of a missile over Japan has had an immediate impact on the financial markets. Stocks reacted negatively, and the Dollar fell to a four-month low against the Yen, although it subsequently recovered. Investors opted for safe haven assets, such as Gold, US Treasuries and the Yen. The Gold price has peaked since November last year.

 

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In the pre-opening, European markets were trading on positive ground, as investors followed the stance on Wall Street and Asian markets. Attentions seem to be shifting away from the aggravation of geopolitical tensions to other issues, with developments related to Brexit. Today is the third day of negotiations between the UK and the European Union. In the business field, to highlight the results of the French Carrefour, so the retail sector should attract attention.

 

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On the last day of the month, the US market closed higher, this being also the trend of Wall Street in August. The session was marked by the release of some economic indicators, but the expectation was focused on the employment report that will only be known today.

 

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Gold appreciated 0.95% while the Swiss Franc rose about 0.70% against the Dollar.

 

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In the past, the reaction of financial markets to events related to North Korea was sometimes abrupt but always momentary. The reason for this pattern is that the incidents with this country were isolated and generally followed by some calming or at least by some impasse. However, the current situation has been characterized by a continuous series of events, each one being more tense than the previous one. It is in this uninterrupted accumulation of tension that the threat to the financial markets may lie. Another factor not to be excluded is the possibility that some unforeseeable incidents might occur that would oppose the North Korean and American or South Korean armed forces, which could precipitate the situation.

 

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Although investors are focusing this week on the reopening of the Congress, the developments in the Korean situation, the ECB’s tomorrow meeting and the FED are remaing as elements in their decisions. At the sectoral level, the tourism and insurance sectors suffered losses due to the approach of Hurricane Irma to Florida, a few days after Hurricane Harvey. According to meteorologists, Hurricane Irma may be the strongest hurricane recorded in the Atlantic, with winds of 300 km / h. According to analysts’ projections, in an extreme scenario, the passage of the two hurricanes could cause damages of about 130,000 M.USD.